The 10-Year Yield Is Breaking Markets — Here's What Happens Next

Each afternoon, real setups are broken down with entry strategies >> [music] >> and the technical reasoning behind every trade. This is today's best trade setups with verified investing. >> Welcome to today's best trade setups. My name is Benjamin Pool, head trader here at Verified Investing. There is a lot to talk about. The first thing we're going to discuss is the 10-year yield. It is pushing higher, putting a lot of pressure on the stock market today. The SPX is actually dropping below that up-sloping trendline support that I had mentioned. So, we're going to go ahead and jump into a couple of those charts as well as some of the memory stocks that are getting nice drawdowns today into some key levels that if they do break these support levels, then we're going to see a nice flush out. But, we have to wait and see what happens with those stock prices before we can determine what's going to happen next. Let's jump right into the 10-year yield. Here's a pivot low here. Secondary hit. Third hit, got a nice bounce, consolidated, put in a nice bear flag. However, it recaptured this 4.486% level, and now we're heading back up to the gap in the charts right here at 4.556. If this hits there today, you could get a lot of market reprieve, and then the stock prices could continue higher. If we start breaking back above that, our next level of resistance is going to be 4.628. And when that continues to push, look at this. The SPX will still maintain a lot of pressure. So, here's this up-sloping trendline. Pivot low here, secondary hit, third, fourth, fifth. The more often support levels do hit, the weaker the support levels get. And so, now we're getting a little bit of a break today. Again, if the US 10-year can start dropping, then the SPX has an opportunity to recapture this this up sloping trend line. This isn't a guarantee that the the top is in in the market. Right now, we're in this pivot top right here and right about $7,500 on the SPX. What we're going to need to see is another down day on Monday. So, if we get another drop and then we close below this low pivot in the charts or this previous gap in the charts right here at 7471, then all of a sudden we're starting to see a lot more selling pressure. We are on a technical basis, that's not where we're going to enter. We're going to wait for a retrace all the way back up here. Could come back and fill this chart this gap at 7585. This would be your shortable level on the SPX or if you're looking at trade the SPY or go long the SDS, this is your entry price on a continued breakdown with a retrace and that is how a professional trader trades the SPX. And the reason you do that is because if it does start closing back inside of this or above this down sloping excuse me, up sloping trend line, then all of a sudden it opens the door to coming back up to 7700 or 7800 on the SPX. USO isn't really doing a whole lot today. We're not getting any bids to the upside. We are slightly negative. Never got back up to my re-shortable level at $140.92. If we get a continued push, right here is your swing trade short level at 149.32. On the downside, I'm still eyeing this high pivot point for some support at $124.11. Today, I don't have any levels, but what we're we're going to do is we're going to continue to watch what happens over the next few weeks, next week into the following week to see where price action of oil settles in. SOXX, look at this um spinning top or doji candle or hammer candle, whatever you call it. Like, it doesn't it doesn't really matter what the candle itself is called, right? I don't memorize all these things. What I do is I look at the potential topping signal that it has actually put in, and that gives you a little bit of a doji candle with a lot of bullish sentiment to get a lot of buyers on board with that with that high candle or that high tail on this chart. And now all of a sudden, the bears can take control and drive this all the way down to this up something trend line. So, here's this trend line on the SOXX. Pivot low here, secondary hit. All of a sudden, it opens the door now now that we're below this gap in the charts to come back into this gap in the charts right here at $537.21. If it can drop there today, I am a long I'm a buyer on the SOXX. This is your level to enter. On a normal basis, up something trend lines on the third hit usually get a bounce. With the bearish sentiment now that we've gotten below this high pivot point, the bears are in control, so you could see a flush out. But on a technical basis, this third hit of this up something trend line is the support level on the SOXX. Once it starts breaking that level, then we're going to drop substantially. Uh you got this prior gap in the charts right here at basically below $500 is where the SOXX is going to get its next level support, and then you've got this prior gap in the charts right here at $483.04 for additional levels on the SOXX. Here's ARM. Look at this. It got really close to this gap in the charts sitting at five $353.29. If it does get into this level and we have continued selling pressure in stocks like MU. It could likely flush this area. For those of you who are aggressive, for $353.29, even though it's gotten really close to that level, I'll zoom into the 1-minute time frame so you can see how close it got. It got a few pennies from that level, and it wasn't a significant bounce, but it's still showing you that there are still buyers sitting at this level. So, if you're looking to get into this trade, that again is your aggressive level. Just knowing that if it does close below that on a 15-minute closing basis, you look to stop out, and then you have this other gap in the chart sitting at $335.38. For me, because it's already gotten this bounce, that is a level that I would look to get into ARM. SanDisk, what a sell-off today. From the pivot top at 1861.93, it dropped 13% $246 on SanDisk. We have to identify where the next level of support is. See this pivot top in the charts right here before the substantial sell-off? It's also uh so, that's the level at 1586. Also has this up-sloping trend line. Pivot low here, secondary hit, third hit, fourth hit. Price opened below it, but got a nice bid to the upside. Look at that move from 1287 all the way up. That was a $500 move. This shows you though that there's a lot of buyers who are sitting waiting for it to come back to this up-sloping trend line. Once it does that and hits this pivot top, again, 1587.52 to 25 level, that is your entry price for an aggressive swing long trade. Now, if we head higher, 1831.50 all the way up to 1861 is my shortable level for a swing trade, knowing that I could always stop out on a daily closing basis above this with a continuation move. I could exit the trade or look to dollar cost average all the way up to $2,000. If once we start closing below this 1586 level, then all of a sudden it opens the door to come back into this prior gap in the charts just below these low pivots right here at 12:59. And that would be a pretty substantial fall. Just like on the SPX, the more often support levels hit, the weaker those support levels get. So, this is why I'm not a buyer at this level on Sandisk, but I know there are a lot of people who love to buy the dips, and so that is your level to go long. CIEN, up-sloping trend line, pivot low here, secondary hit, third, fourth, fifth, sixth. Price action got below, never confirmed it or never continued the move. Finally got above it, tried to get back below again, and then put in this nice red bar candle, got as high as $638, and now all of a sudden we're seeing this nice sell-off. For me, now that we've broken this up-sloping trend line, if we can retrace all the way back up to about 600 bucks, this is my shortable for a swing trade for CIEN. On the downside, here's a ton of support. Prior opening candle of a green bar candle and current gap in the charts, $475.39 is your long level on CIEN. Knowing you had do have additional support at this gap in the charts, and this is going to be a pretty substantial gap on CIEN with the fact that it had this huge surge to the upside and hasn't come back in and retraced it. You got to think that there are a lot of people who are looking to short it and looking for their entry price at $448.46 at this gap in the charts. That's where they're going to exit, and there's also going to be a ton of people after this huge surge to the upside who are looking to get in at a 30% discount, which is one of the reasons that I think this is good for about a a 10, maybe even a 15% bounce on CIEN on a long play. If it does start breaking below that, we have to identify additional support, and then you're looking at these pivot tops right here as well as this pivot low prior gap at $364.22. Nvidia, it's getting into a nice long level right now. Opening candle of this green bar or the closing price prior gap in the charts, pivot top, prior opening candle of a green bar candle. So, I know I have it at 208.37, but it's actually 208.27. This is an aggressive level. You see it got close to that level at one time before it got a pretty solid bounce. 208.27 is your aggressive level for a Excuse me, for a day trade. For me, I would be a little bit more conservative going into Friday, even though it does favor a little bit more of a bounce. This low pivot point right here at 206.50 is where I would look to go long for a day trade on Nvidia. Swing trade long, I'm still eyeing 195.25 29 for a long play. Look at all of this price consolidation in this area that Nvidia should get a pretty solid bounce. Price got rejected, rejected, finally got back above, re-confirmed above it. Then we retrace the scene of the crime. So, again, 195.29 is my long play for Nvidia. AVGO is getting a nice sell-off. It did have a bounce off that gap in the charts earlier. The previous gap in the charts at $399 or $400 appears. Now that it's already done that, that level's off the table. For those of you who are aggressive, 394.57 is that level to enter AVGO with additional support at this pivot top at $386.65. So, if you're more conservative, wait for that secondary entry price. I want to mention previous gap in the charts. I was yesterday $426.67 was that entry price. It never actually got back up to that level. It got really close to that prior gap in the charts, and then look at the sell-off. Continued sell-off from that level. 6, 7% move to the downside, which is one of the reasons that I like the 394.57 level is because there were a lot of buyers in the stock yesterday, sold off today, and so that's a pretty substantial sell-off. 394.57, conservative traders again 386.65. OKLO having a nice drawdown today. Yesterday I was mentioning OKLO at the 62.52 is aggressive for a potential swing trade. That's not my level. I like $55.81 for a potential entry price, knowing that I've got additional support at $50.18. If it starts breaking below that, you've got this low pivot at $44.93, but you you zoom out, look at this major pivot, excuse me, at $43.63, and this gap in the charts right here at $39.72. For OKLO, this could be a pretty substantial drop. So, if you're a little bit more conservative, make sure that you stop out at a daily closing basis below this low pivot point, because not only would it close below, I mean, it would negate this move to the upside, but it would also close back below this um prior gap in the charts, as well as this low pivot. And so then you could look to reenter it at $50.18, save yourself about 6 to 7%, and then all of a sudden you could look to even reenter it at $43.63. I eventually think OKLO is going to make this massive surge to the upside, but it's got to catch some support. It's got to catch a nice bid. The stock markets need to continue higher as well. Look at this. Potential shoulder here, head here, shoulder here. Now, this is a little bit of a wonky head and shoulder inverse head and shoulders pattern, but once we start breaking above $81.27, then we're going to see this nice shoot-up all the way above 100 bucks on OKLO. But again, you have to catch that support first. And as of the moment, we are not catching the support on this on these levels. So, you got to look for national support levels on the way down. MSTR Woo! 132.36 is where I was mentioning yesterday for a potential swing trade. However, you got to identify where the support level is on MSTR. Secondary level, aggressive level, $121.44. We are continuing to plummet on Bitcoin. Huge sell-off. So, we have to identify where the next level of support is. So, for me, I'm a conservative trader. I like this retrace to this gap in the charts at $106.99. Even if Bitcoin does start to get a little bit of a bounce off of this $59,930 I do anticipate a little bit of a flush out below that. I I see us going down about $58,000 on this. And so, for MSTR, that would likely take us all the way to this low and around $106.99. We also have this down-sloping trend line, but that's so far away. It's We can't even use that as far as a retrace as the scene of the crime. Last but not least, MU. So, here's an up-sloping trend line that we are monitoring. Pivot low here, secondary hit, third hit, broke below, resistance, broke above, came back and retraced it without making a continuation move. So, on a technical basis, now that we're at this level right now, if you're aggressive and you don't mind either dollar cost averaging or you're a buy-the-dipper, this is your level to buy at $926.34. Just knowing that if you notice this level didn't confirm above and retrace until we did retrace. So, it could go below, close below, retrace without confirmation, and so that would be your stop out level on MU if you're looking to go long. Unless, of course, it recaptures that. If you're shorting it, that would be your entry price, knowing that if it does close back above, you stop out of the trade. If you're not already short, looking for a downside move to at least $776, and could go as low as $750.46. So, on a on a day trade though, if you're looking to day trade it, if you're not taking this first level, you have this prior gap in the charts sitting just below the $900 whole round number for an entry price for a little bit of a dip to come in. The fact that we are getting this pressure on the 10-year yield to go higher, the DXY is actually heading higher as well, it's putting a lot of pressure on the stock market. The 10:15 level usually is when the stocks really start to rally to the upside. And we did have some push up, but it got sold into, and that's why we're seeing these continued falls in some of these stocks. If we do this a couple more days where the 10 o'clock to about 10:30 rally doesn't continue, then all of a sudden, there's going to be a lot of people who are stuck in those trades thinking that, "Oh, this is an easy market. You just buy the dips 10:00, 10:15, and you just make a ton of money." Once that fails, watch out because the stocks are going to plummet. So, that's what I have for you guys. Thank you so much for joining me today. My name is Benjamin Pool. If you guys are getting something out of this, please make sure you're liking, you're following, subscribing, and sharing with those friends so that way they can get the same information. We'll see you guys next time in charts. You guys have a great rest of your day, and take care. >> [music] >> Yeah.