My Trading Game Plan | July 7, 2026

My name is Gareth Soloway and I was a
losing trader until I mastered technical
analysis. Logic and charts beat hype and
narratives every time. Now I teach
investors the same techniques that made
me a multi-millionaire. This is my
trading game plan.
Good morning everybody. Welcome to my
trading game plan. My name is Gareth
Soloway, chief market strategist here at
verifiedinvesting.com.
coming to you still from Mexico on
vacation. But as always folks, I'm here
to break down the charts, focus on the
data with no BS mixed in. All right, so
the big story today is that Deepseek has
come to market with a new semiconductor
chip. So right away we're seeing selling
pressure in the semiconductors. Now you
could kind of see this yesterday and I'm
going to show you this in the charts.
Yesterday we got a big bounce out of the
gates on the semiconductors. Micron,
SanDisk, you name it. And then
throughout the day, they all faded. Now
again, was that retail selling or was
that someone that knew something that
was selling into the bounce? Sure
enough, this morning, all of these
stocks are dropping sharply. Many of
them five to six% already today. So,
we'll get into that. We also had Samsung
earnings overnight in South Korea. that
stock disappointed on their earnings and
that again is bringing that stock down
and hurting the semiconductors. In my
humble opinion, the semiconductor top is
in and we are beginning to see a
rotation to a galot over the next year
or so. Margins will begin to fall. These
stocks very well will correct 75%
from their highs. All right, let's dive
into the charts and see exactly where we
stand today. S&P 500 ES futures we are
trading lower. You can see again this
was generally yesterday we had this nice
grind higher on very light post holiday
weekend volume and then overnight we
started to see the semiconductors in
South Korea start to roll over. SK
Heinix was down about 6% as well and
that really brought the futures down.
We've seen a little bit of buy the dip
in the early session this morning, but
still looking at a lower open on the S&P
500. Now, you guys know what I'm
watching here. If you watched yesterday,
you are fully aware. Flipping to the
daily chart here on the S&P, we have
this trend line right here. This would
be if we continued to rally up on the
S&P, this would be your next major
resistance. And the reason why I bring
that to my your attention is because
again we take our high pivot to high
pivot to high pivot and they all align
perfectly. All right. So if we did get a
push up that would be the resistance
point. All right. So keep that on your
radar. But on the downside which I'm
really more concerned about is if we see
this trend line break. This trend line
again was resistance going back to the
high of 2021. If price, which has now
tested this zone two times, right? Once,
twice. If we come down and break back
below that, it's going to set off a
sharp sell to 7,000. Another 300 points
just from that break point. It would be
about a 600 point drop from where we
currently are. And likely, it would
spell a much bigger longerterm
correction. All right. All of this,
folks, while the S&P has been cushioned
somewhat by being more diversified than
the NASDAQ 100, again, there's only so
long it can hold up. And this is my fear
is that we have one group of consumers
that have been spending. The consumer
that has a lot of investment, they
haven't felt the inflation. They haven't
felt the higher gas prices before
they've can come back in. And so
ultimately what we're looking at is if
the stock market does stop making new
all-time highs and those spenders, those
consumers start to pull back on
spending, that's where you see the
market fly into a recession or at least
weaken substantially. And once that
happens, doesn't matter if it's the S&P
or the NASDAQ, everything will start to
decline. Okay, so let's get back to the
charts. The 10-year yield here, the
10-year yield is inching up just a tiny
bit back to about 4.497%.
So, we're knocking on 4.5%.
Back above 4.5%. That would be a little
bit of a concern for investors in my
humble opinion as again that seems to be
a pivot the markets have been concerned
about. Overall, the dollar today
flattish on the day. We continue to be
in this kind of zone of resistance. And
for those of you that are new, check out
how amazing this zone is. It literally
goes back to 2015
where it was resistance. Then we broke
above it. It became support. Then we
went below it. And sure enough, it is
resistance again. And that's really what
we're fighting here on the S on the
dollar, the DXY, to see can it break
out. If it does, that's very good for
the dollar. It could really make a good
push up. But if not and it gets
rejected, we're likely headed back down
towards these recent lows around 95 to
96 on the DXY. All right, next we've got
to talk about SpaceX. SpaceX getting
added to the NASDAQ 100 as of today.
This is a concern of mine because we
haven't seen a material surge in the
buying that should have been a big
buying power in adding it to the index.
Right? Think about this. Think about how
many ETFs track the NASDAQ 100. The QQQ
was just to name one of them, right? But
there's there's literally dozens. And
there should be massive upside pressure
on SpaceX with being added to the NASDAQ
100. And the fact that we have not seen
it tells me there are a lot of sellers.
And this is even before the lockup
expiration, right? So again, we have
seen a little bit of the lock up being
ex, you know, being allowed, the
insiders allowed to sell, but not
significantly. And the fact that we're
not getting a bigger bounce here in
SpaceX. I mean, look at SpaceX today.
Yesterday was really when we should have
seen a lot of that buying and it was
negative. And today, SpaceX is negative
again. Now, it's not down much, but just
this type of price action, this tells me
the stock is going lower. I would say
within two weeks, we're down to $135
a share on SpaceX. And remember, when
they report earnings, a huge lockup will
open up where they'll where insiders, a
bunch of insiders will be able to sell
more shares. I actually think that by
end of year, this is below $100 per
share. So, you can put that in the
books. We can look back at it later this
year, but I do think this is going much
much lower. Now, talk about the
deepseek. So, Deepseek coming out and
saying, "Hey, we're going to debut a
chip." You can see the stock here on
Nvidia is lower. Remember that this was
a big fear factor uh about a year and a
half ago that hurt the semiconductors
and it's starting to creep back in. But
this time there's legitimacy to it. This
time you do have AI models that are
almost as good if not as good as Claude,
Gemini, uh all of these others, right?
And chat GPT and that is going to create
a cheaper alternative where chips maybe
they don't need as much power to run
these and that's going to hurt margins
for Nvidia, for Micron, for everyone
through the whole semiconductor cycle.
And that's part of the issue here is a
lot of people are saying, well, remember
when it when Micron came out with their
earnings? I mean, they said that they
were sold out basically through 2027,
maybe even into 2028. The problem is the
market always looks forward 12 months.
And so what where Micron was priced on
earnings was basically 12 months out and
now investors are saying wait but beyond
that all of these new factories are
going to start coming online. We have
these alter alternative options. Memory
potentially with Apple going to the
government saying hey could you let us
buy from China companies which are
banned right now from selling. All of
these things are coming into the purview
of investors at least institutional
investors. I think retail unfortunately
retail buys closer to the top and then
they get caught holding the bag. And
this is why I teach the technicals
because you would have never even
thought about buying Micron up in this
range or higher. You got to wait for
these things to come in. They always
come in. All right, so let's continue on
here. We have Nvidia potential technical
breakdown here below this level. We kind
of dipped below briefly but never
confirmed. If we close below and
confirm, Nvidia should be on a track
down to about 178 and potentially down
to 165. Sandis. Now, Sandis, look at the
price action here yesterday. This was so
important to take note of. So, remember
yesterday when I did the game plan, I
talked to you guys about how the semis
were finally getting a bounce. Most of
the semis, Micron, SanDisk, and a bunch
of these others had fallen 20 to 25% in
basically one week. So, that was a big
corrective move. And again, we got a
bounce yesterday. We came out of the
gates first day back from a 3-day
weekend. The retail buyer was back. They
were buying the semiconductors up and
then all of a sudden we opened higher
and most semiconductors faded the rest
of the day and that think about this. Do
you think that's a signal that these
stocks are going to go higher or that
they're going to go lower? Just common
sense. Use logic we put aside whether
we're long or short. Just look at the
price action. Price action tells us so
many amazing things. We just have to
know how to read it. And if we go back
to the chart of SanDisk, it opened up
basically here. It went as high as about
1840 and closed flat to negative on the
day at at 1744. Basically a $100 selloff
on the day from the highs. Is that
bullish or bearish for price action?
Well, I think we can all agree that's
not good price action. And so what does
that mean? Well, sure enough, today, lo
and behold, it's down another $100
in price from yesterday's close. That's
$200 from yesterday's high on SanDisk.
Now, again, the kicker here is we broke
a major trend line. So, even if we got a
bounce, it was just on borrowed time.
Maybe we went as high as here and then
the rollover comes in here. In this
case, it's going down. Now, the other
thing you could make a case for is
whether or not insiders, institutional
money, non non you and I knew that this
information was going to come out,
right, on Deepseek and on on a Samsung
earnings, right? Because Samsung reports
earnings and they, by the way, their
their numbers were fantastic, but they
had to do better than fantastic to
justify the stock price where it is. I
mean, when stocks go up hundreds of
percentage points in a single year, like
I always say, my old mantra is they
better cure cancer if they're going to
continue to go up. If they can do that,
sure, then they continue to go up. But
essentially, what I'm saying is the bar
is so high that they have to come out
with just the most incredible things.
And if they come out with just
incredible and not the most incredible,
the stock is going to fall. And so L uh
so Samsung electronics fell. All right,
we saw SKH Heinix falling in sympathy
and before you know it, we're seeing now
SanDisk and Micron and Nvidia and all of
these others coming down today, many of
them dropping significantly. And I guess
my point here is that when you look at
the price action yesterday, do you think
retail was selling on this little bounce
or do you think it was bigger money that
might have known about those earnings,
maybe about the deepseek news and ulti
ultimately dumping into retail and lo
and behold, where are we today? down
another $100 on Standis. Now, here's
Micron. Micron is down again today. New
lows, even taking out the lows from
Friday, down at $933.
That's another $50 drop here, over $50
from yesterday's close. But look, closed
below, confirmed the breakdown. Small
bounce. Look at how weak the bounce was.
We got as high on Micron as around 1020.
Closed at 984. weak close near the lows
of the day. Sure enough, it signaled it
was going to go lower and down it goes.
Now, where am I looking to play this
today? Is there a day trade on the long
side? I would say yes. I like this 865
level right in here. There should be
just a day tradable level. Long story
though is where would I think that this
is going to go before it gets a major
bounce. I think it's going to fill this
gap all the way down at 745 to 750 right
here. that I think would be a great
swing trade opportunity. This one I
don't trust it enough. I would say I I
need to see, you know, maybe a day
trade, but that's about it. Intel.
Intel. Look, look at the chart again.
Was it a weak close or a strong close?
Was it telling us something? The stock
traded all the way to 127 and change.
Closed at basically 122, well off its
highs. It didn't break down yet, though.
Look at that. Still was holding, but is
today the day where it's going to break
the technical support? And we should see
a move down on this next stop. I would
say the next major stop will be this 99
level, this pivot low. But where is it
eventually going? Back to $66
and change. This gap is a massive gap.
The old adage is in technical analysis
amongst Wall Street elite is that gaps
are made to be filled. When you get a
big gap on a big running stock, the
stock eventually will flush out and fill
the gap. It's almost like coming back to
home base to settle in. My guess is is
by year end we see Intel back at $66 a
share. Kind of wild thought process. Now
again I want to be clear on this is that
this is not unprecedented reversals,
right? If you looked at any past cycle
could be do but even if you say oh it's
not this isn't the do I mean you could I
disagree. I think it is very similar to
the dot with the euphoria and the runs
and everything like that. But let's just
say you say no it's just like 2021.
Okay, the hottest stock in 2021 was
Tesla. Tesla went up up and up. It was
it was the most incredible thing out
there. I mean, it it was the stock of
the period, right? I mean, you had
GameStop, but in terms of mega caps, it
was Tesla. All right. Now, Tesla in 2022
after the top in 2021 dropped 75%
before making a bottom. So, again, even
in just normal bare or bull markets,
things reverse these massive amounts to
come back in. All right, let's continue
on here, guys, as we go through. Uh,
let's flip over to gold. Gold today is
basically flattish on the day. It
continues to be in this tighter and
tighter wedge pattern. Now, remember how
wedge patterns work? They condense price
like a pressure cooker. So, it doesn't
we don't know how long it'll stay in
here, but if it breaks out, it's likely
the beginning of a big move. If it
breaks down, it's likely the beginning
of a bigger move. downside would be that
35 to 3600 level. That would be a huge
viable level for my long-term bullish
scenario on gold. But if we break out
above 4,200 now or so, I do think this
has the power to make a run eventually
back to those all-time highs. And
eventually, I think either way, even if
it goes to 3500, I'm still in the camp
that it's 10K within a few years on
gold. And listen, is there anything that
could change my viewpoint of that? And
the answer is yes. There always is. We
have to as technical traders that are
datab based, we always have to adjust
our views based on the data, right?
Makes sense. So if for some reason the
government were to all of a sudden get
fiscally responsible and I know that's
like I that's the same thing as like
yeah I mean you know when pigs fly as
they say but the idea is is if that were
to happen if all of a sudden the Fed
were to not do quantitative easing the
next time we get in a pickle. Yeah. then
I would say okay maybe gold doesn't go
right but the odds of that happening I
think we all agree are non almost
non-existent there's always a slight
chance but at this point almost
non-existent therefore my bias on gold
longer term remains very very bullish
here we are on silver guys look at how
silver we talked about this it broke
down it confirmed a breakdown retraced
here and then we're starting to pull
back I do not like the chart on silver
right now unless we can recapture this
6364 level. If it does that, I go to
neutral. Neutral back in here and then
bullish only if we break out above this
trend line which currently sits around
71 to $72. All right, so keep that in
mind. Anytime you break I mean look at
look what a significant breakdown this
was. This was a major pivot low. One,
two, three hits, bounce, breaks,
retraces, rejection. Again, this likely
I still think we're going to $50 or so
on silver. Uh oil, you guys know I'm
bullish on oil. Oil is getting a bounce
today. There was news in the overnight
that Iran may have uh fired on two
vessels in the straight of Hormuz.
Certainly, we're not seeing a big bounce
and and even for me, I don't think we're
going back to $100 a barrel. I honestly
don't think we're going back there.
Maybe maybe ever. may ever might be a
little long, but at least in the near
term, my upside is back to about 79 to
80. Then a move down to about 50 to 55
would be the next case. So, we'll see.
But ultimately, oil is bouncing here.
You can see the gap that we talk about
gaps needing to be filled. If you look
at this chart, the biggest gap was right
here. And sure enough, we filled it on
Thursday of last week, and we're now
starting to float up off of it. That's
classic technical analysis right there.
Um, here we have the chart of natural
gas. Natural gas down a little bit
today. Still potentially a cup and
handle pattern. I am still on the
sidelines here because I don't have
enough other signals to trigger a long
opportunity. But it is a pattern
formation I am watching closely. And
then Bitcoin pulling back a little bit
today. In all fairness, one, two, three,
four, five, six updates in a row. I
would say it's due for a little bit of a
pullback. I guess the question that I
have is could we be making an inverse
head and shoulders, right? Could this be
an inverse head and shoulders? And in
that case, there's still more upside
after a few pullback days of
consolidation on Bitcoin. And again, I
don't know about that. It's just a
pattern that has popped on my radar now
that I am going to be monitoring. All
right, guys. So, listen. We're getting
to a point I got to get off here uh and
and get to my trading room here.
Remember, we have daily, weekly, and
monthly passes into that trading room.
We will be trading. You see our live
positions in your own uh cockpit view of
the trading room, share size, P&L, live
moving. It's very, very cool. So, come
to the trading room and check it out if
you want. Even just a one day pass is
pretty darn cool. And then lastly, I
just want to mention we do have the sale
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On that note, I got to bid you farewell.
Have a great rest of your day from
Mexico live here. Take care, guys.