Markets Bounce Post-Drop As Broadcom And Moderna Rip Higher

Hello everybody. Welcome to Trading the
Close. My name is Drew Dosek. Hope you
all had a fantastic Fourth of July
weekend. Came out of it safe and sound.
Back into the markets we go today. There
was not a lot of volatility today. We
had a nice little move higher and then
price action really just stayed stagnant
all throughout the day. It tells me a
lot of investors or at least some of the
big players were taking an extra day off
extending their holiday break. We had
decent volume, but it was still under 50
million on the spiders. Let's take a
look at some of these stocks that are on
the verge of potential breakouts after.
Remember last week we were talking about
stocks getting hit hard with a lot of
weekly topping tales. Those are still in
play this week, folks. If you did miss
that show, go back, watch last
Thursday's trading, the close. These are
some really key signals for upcoming
price action in the near term. But let's
jump into today's daily charts. Starting
off with the S&P 500 on the spiders. Now
guys, we've been following this wedge
pattern over the last several days. In
essence, anything underneath this was on
the verge of breaking down. And you see
here Thursday, we played pingpong with
the top and bottom end of this wedge.
And today started pushing up after hours
pushing up even 50 cents higher. But we
clearly close above this declining trend
line. Now for tomorrow, the spiders are
going to have any staying power with
this move back up. We're wanting to see
a close above this candle high at 75241.
that will then flip this trend line into
support and at least pause selling
pressure if it hits it for at least a
couple days. But if you're a bull,
that's what you want to see happen as we
are on the verge of a potential
near-term breakout scenario on the S&P
500. Next up into the Q's. The Q's, as
you see here, all traded really within
Thursday's price action. Not too much
new to report except for it was and had
a tremendous bounce from the lows. If
you see here on today's 10-minute price
action, I'll take off extended trading
hours. Really, most of the move all
occurred overnight. You can see here
once we gapped up, we elevated up, but
then we really just move sideways all
day as I've described on the S&P 500 on
the 10-minute. It was a very similar
scenario up, struggled a little bit at
that trend line, then just went above it
and just kind of floated throughout the
day. Not a lot of ups and downs in the
markets with any big swings. Thus, there
really wasn't a lot of volatility. So,
back to the cues on the daily time
frame. That leaves us with our overhead
resistance tomorrow at 737.88.
Near-term support down here at 70463.
An area the cues have revisited now
several times ever since back here in
May. You can see we really haven't
gotten out of that gutter per se or at
least not that far. Next up into the SMH
also remaining within its Thursday big
red candles. So, guys, what do I say in
here? following big candles. You got to
pay attention to those. Notice also the
volume on that candle. One of the
highest volume uh candles that we had in
most recent history. Yes, we had a
higher volume here on Feb or pardon me,
Friday, June 5th. Um but that also
designated a near-term low on the chart,
guys. So, when we did have that high
volume spike, will this also designate a
nearterm low even with a confirmed
breakdown? Look at all the mixed signals
the SMH is giving us. Just to remind
you, topping tail negated two weeks
later and then followed up with a
massive engulfing reversal candle, which
is still the biggest dominant candle on
all of this chart. Just near-term price
action really whipping us back and
forth, implying that we're trying to put
in at least a near-term bottom right
here on the July 2nd candle. Next up,
10-year yield. Now, guys, follow the
10-year pretty closely. We're back to
this major level. I've talked about it
before. Back to this major key pivot
from March 27th. That level here is
4.484%.
Notice how we elevated up to it last
week and have since put on the brakes.
That's putting in consolidation. So, if
this consolidation continues right here
at this level, it ends up being a bull
flag to break out. Next stop, 4.553
on the 10-year yield. Next up into gold.
Gold and silver had great days today.
Gold up nearly 1%. Now, guys, I
mentioned this the other week, too. Gold
had a lot of resistance to fight and get
through. And man, it's doing so. One of
the best ways to fight and get through
resistance is to not go through it. You
may say, "What?" Well, gapping up over
resistance is the best way. Think of it
kind of like going over a bridge
compared to going through the water.
You're going to exert so much effort and
energy going through the water. And I
don't know if you're a fan of Wild Wild
West shows, but a lot of people actually
perished and got seriously hurt trying
to go through the river. If they only
had a bridge to take that wagon over, it
would have been much easier, much
quicker. They could exerted the energy
on the other side of the bridge. Same
concept applies to major key resistance
lines. Right here on gold, we have a
battle. Basically, a dueling set of
parallels. An inclining parallel, larger
dated time frame, and a declining
parallel. within this parallel
illustrating how price broke down
underneath that range and then today we
gapped up over the bottom range of that
parallel and still maintained on top.
Look here on the daily time frame you
can see this low wick pierced this trend
line but yet remained above. Great day
for gold. Gold wants to have any sort of
the stain p power getting back into the
upper parallel. We need to make sure
that tomorrow we get a close above
today's high candle. But keep in mind,
we're still in this downward move,
sideways consolidation, not necessarily
out of the box yet, but today was a
great sign for gold. We very well may
not be coming down and tagging this
$3,800 level anytime soon if gold puts a
higher close tomorrow than today's
candle high. Next up into silver. Silver
here, you can see clearly getting jammed
by this declining trend line. Did have a
nice day today. Also up over 1% compared
to gold. 1.69%. Nice day here on silver
helping to get out of this consolidation
range. But look, we're still looking
like we're about to close in within this
candle from June 24th. Silver's got a
couple things facing it. Get in over
this candle, but mainly near-term get
over this declining trend line in which
the high price today at 6326
tag. So for tomorrow, that level is a
little bit lower, $62.65
to get into near-term breakout scenario
situation on the chart of silver. Next
up into gold. Gold pushed up today
about.32%.
Uh did not confirm the breakdown we saw
here on July 1st. You notice that we had
this declining trend line where price
was consolidating above. Then one
deviation and then following sideways
consolidation. No confirming move
underneath here. Meaning that price on
oil can easily maneuver right back above
this declining trend line without much
resistance. You want to see a further
move lower. If you want lower prices at
the gas pump, you want to see price
action put in a daily close underneath
$67.92.
That will increase probabilities for the
next level of support here at $6460 to
get hit, followed by $62.33,
one of which I I see as being a stronger
level of support on the chart for US
oil. Next up into Nat Gas on the daily
time frame. Nothing new to report here.
continued its sideways chop after
confirming a breakdown from this
inclining trend line. Now, if you look
guys and you look at this with a a
larger lens and I flip to the weekly
time frame, what looks to be occurring
right here, right underneath resistance.
This is all bullish consolidation. So,
it's very interesting. I already uh
described that earlier in the show. When
you have different patterns forming, the
larger and bigger time frame pattern is
more dominant. The weekly time frame is
now showing consolidation underneath
resistance on this inclining trend line.
Meaning that if we put any sort of
weekly or daily candle closes above
$3.39,
you should be paying attention to a
potential breakout scenario on natural
gas with the next resistance at $3.58.
This may come a couple months down the
road, but you can very clearly even see
it here on the daily time frame. Once we
hit this inclining trend line, it's been
a move up and sideways consolidation
despite breaking this inclining trend
line and confirming underneath it. So
maintain view in the larger time frame
that could help point you to more upside
in that gas. Near-term support though is
still here at 303. One area that could
be a nice place to start picking up some
NAT gas for uh the pending potential
increase in cost moving into the winter
months. Next up into Bitcoin. Great day
today and really unusual day. Look how
far down Bitcoin was down at $61,250.
Notice what happened when the markets
opened here in the United States at 9:30
is when Bitcoin put in its low. It was
heading much lower uh pre-market than it
was trading at just around 7 in the
morning. We were dipping lower than a
beautiful recovery up here and putting
in sideways bullish consolidation to go
in towards the end of the trading day
today. Despite the wick, man, this ended
up being a good day here for Bitcoin.
Watch to see now that we've hit this
trend line the last two days in a row.
Watch to see if we can't start poking up
and closing above that trend line for
tomorrow. $63,733.
I still remain bearish big picture on
Bitcoin with the head and shoulders
pattern. Potential targeted measured
move down here at 37,508.
Next up, couple stocks really pushing
higher today. MRNA. Look at this move on
mRNA since June 25th. Up over 40%, guys,
right at 41.45%
on today's close. Huge move on mRNA.
They've been uh pivoting a little bit
with their developments on vaccines.
They're moving into a horizon 2 and
three. Previously, only Horizon one
controlled the current vaccines. Now
they're starting to use their mRNA
therapy for more therapies, cancer uh
antigen therapies, TE-C cell uh
engagers, early stage research programs,
you name it. So they're starting to
diversify rather being stuck to the
COVID vaccine. Good for them. And guys,
it was somewhat illustrated here on the
chart when mRNA started making a move up
to this 50% area of the parallel. Look
at all of that consolidation and then a
rocket ship. So, it was building the
momentum right here, right at the
declining 50% area. This parallel now
pointing towards liftoff with the next
key level of resistance at $100, which
lands right here on the top of this
declining parallel channel. I would
anticipate a rejection here since it has
moved up so much. If it continues to do
so, anticipate a rejection even if we
start rejecting now because guys, as
I've already illustrated, up over 40% in
just the last few weeks, we could have a
pullback back down to support at 61.41
for the eventual attack of this $100
level at the top of this declining
parallel channel. Next up into AET. AET,
as you see here, is being capped off by
this declining trend line on the chart.
A pivot taken back here from April 24th.
We now hit it once, twice, three, four,
five times today. So, this is now on
breakout watch. You can see it too. We
started to develop a little bit of, you
know, somewhat of of a cup and handle,
but really multiple attacks of that
trend line implying price action and
investors want to see AET start ripping
higher. All right, so one day close
today, top 50% of this inclining
parallel. Most importantly, be watching
the close in the coming days on this
declining trend line. $174.39
is that level for tomorrow. If we get a
close above and a continued push, any
drawbacks can be buying opportunities to
then attack the top end of this parallel
over $200 at $2616.
Uh, another stock BE. Now, this is on
this is on the teetering of a potential
either break down or break up. Now be
compared to its uh uh competitors in
phase and GE Vernova this stock is
definitely overvalued at least
near-term. Look at this push we've had
from $118 in March up to the most recent
highs 195%. So no doubt about it retail
gets excited about this stock. But what
I'm seeing near-term a down move and
bearish consolidation for bulls. The
good news we recovered from closing
under the 50% area of the parallel.
Never confirmed underneath. didn't even
confirm underneath here in June 10th
either, but I see still near-term
bearish consolidation. A way for BE to
get out of that is to get above this
declining trend line connected from
pivot to pivot and price ran straight
into that today. So, we've now hit it
three times. The next hit being the
fourth hit could be a 5050 chance in
breaking to go higher. that level
tomorrow, $29,6.75.
Getting itself with a daily close up in
the higher range above this declining
trend line would help be then reattack
the top of this parallel channel. But
conflicting signals nonetheless with
near-term bearish consolidation taking
shape on this uh chart. Plus, look at
the weekly time frame. We do have a lot
of bullish, but man, look at that big
red candle for BE to get out of. That
will be a very hard test. Even if price
meanders up to the top of the parallel,
this would be a great spot to sell as I
anticipate this red candle holding price
down for several weeks into the future.
Next up, AVGO. one of the leaders in the
mega caps today despite putting in what
appears to be a daily topping tail, but
it wouldn't qualify because of the price
action prior to the left. It was having
a great day still close 3.73%
getting itself back above this level of
support at $3682.
But I see a big down move and sideways
consolidation. didn't quite yet tag the
bottom of this parallel channel that I
can show you. AVGO has been contained in
since December of 2024. So, a little
over a year and a half being contained
in this parallel getting this close to
the bottom of this level. I anticipate
price on AVGO to come down just a little
bit more despite having a great day
today. 347 and 26 cents is going to be
the general range of the bottom of that
parallel. Notice how that aligns all
with these previous pivot tops. Almost
could be too good to be true, but I'll
see if price can come down there. In
which case, we should see a decent
bounce for AVGO to start pushing back
up. Lastly, guys, another stock with the
rip roaring rally today is Tesla gaining
back 6.69%
of its nasty decline that experienced on
Thursday. Now, Thursday, I was actually
watching before we had this big sell to
see if Tesla would confirm a potential
breakout above this declining trend
line. As you see, we closed above it on
Wednesday, did not push above on
Thursday. Instead, whoa, what a sell
that we saw. But, man, a rocket ship
right back up. And notice, too, if I
flip on the regular trading hours, we
put on the brakes right here at that
declining trend line and then since
closed right above it. So that then
again puts Tesla right back into a
breakout watch tomorrow to see if we get
an extension away from this declining
trend line. In which case that could be
a confirmed breakout and any selling
would then be a buying opportunity right
back onto that declining trend line at
$417.73.
Man, several stocks on potential
breakout watch even with the semi still
under pressure showing that weekly
engulfing reversal candle intact
applying some negative downward
potential movements in the future.
Really interesting stuff with NAC gas
Tesla uh MRNA be on the verge of
potential breaking its bearish
consolidation. We'll see where this week
takes us. We've got earnings coming next
week, so expect more volatility then.
Until then, guys, you have a fantastic
day. Thanks so much for watching and
tuning in today. Don't forget to like
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it out to your friends and family so
they too can learn technical analysis on
the charts. Until tomorrow, guys. Hope
you have a fantastic day and I'll see
you right here on the charts. Take care,
folks.