Markets Shake Off Semi's Swoon (But Epic Storm Clouds Form), Gold, Silver And Bitcoin Trouble

My name is Gareth Soloway and I was a
losing trader until I mastered technical
analysis. Logic and charts beat hype and
narratives every time. Now I teach
investors the same techniques that made
me a multi-millionaire. This is my
trading game plan.
Hey everybody, welcome to my trading
game plan. My name is Gareth Soloway,
chief market strategist here at
verifiedinvesting.com.
And yes, I am away on vacation this week
and next, but I'm going to still be
doing my best to bring you the daily
game plan and all the insights that you
need to master this market, no matter if
it goes up or down. As always, all
charts, no BS. All right, so we have a
busy week with economic data. We got
some PMI numbers coming out at 10:00
a.m. today. We'll also look at the Fed
minutes on Wednesday at 200 p.m. The
futures are seeing a little bit of a
bounce this morning going into the open
on the back of a resurgence or bounce in
the semiconductor trade. So, we saw the
semis get absolutely clobbered late last
week. SanDisk, Micron, etc. coming
sharply lower 20 30% declines off their
all-time highs. Today, they're getting a
small bounce. I wouldn't call it a big
bounce yet, but at least some reprieve.
We're going to get into the charts right
now. Let's take a look at the S&P
futures. So, here's the S&P futures,
guys. You can see again, this was
Friday's action, right? We fell sharply,
got a little bounce into the end of the
day on, and I shouldn't say Friday, it
was Thursday because the stock market
was closed on Friday. Then we had the
futures trading on Friday a little bit,
then Sunday night, and we've just
basically gone sideways since then. So
S&P futures looking to open up a little
over 20 points higher today going into
the open. Now the big things from a
technical analysis standpoint on the S&P
500. All right, so this is where we are.
We have the S&P 500 still battling on
the low end this trend line. Now this
trend line is super super important for
a technician and for the overall status
or structure of the market. The reason
is is because this was a breakout above
a slightly improbable level, but the
market still broke above it. If at some
point it fails and price gets back
below, that's the trigger for a big move
to the downside. So, that's really the
line in the sand. We always hear about
there's a line in the sand with Iran or
there's a line in the sand here. Well,
for the market, this is the line in the
sand. All right, guys. So, take a look
at it again. What we can see right here
is this is a trend line that connects
the high from the bull market of 2021
right here to the high going back to
2025. It has then reestablished itself
but from the opposite direction as
technical support. You can see again
this is how we know this trend line. I
mean everyone always asks me well how do
you know your trend line's a good trend
line? I mean you can really connect any
two points and that's the fair fair
point. What you want to see is that when
you connect two points, the market or
the stock or the crypto or the
commodity, they behave and hit that line
and react multiple times afterwards. If
you do that and you see that price
action, it tells you that your trend
line is correct and it has credence to
the power that it's displaying on the
chart. And we can see that very clearly.
High pivot from bull market of 2021.
high pivot here in 2025 in October,
which by the way was when Bitcoin topped
and then here we had the breakout and
then look at how we hit it, bounced up,
hit it again, bounced up again. Now
listen, let's call a spade a spade. As
long as the S&P holds above this trend
line, this market can technically go
higher on the S&P 500. Now, if you
compare the S&P to the NASDAQ, the
NASDAQ's been much weaker. Why? Well,
because the semiconductors are a bigger
component of the tech sector, which is
more the NASDAQ versus the S&P is much
more diversified with many other names.
You know, you have pharmaceuticals in
there like Eli Lily and other names as
well. And therefore, the S&P because
those other stocks have kind of seen a
money rotation out of semiconductors
into those names, that's held up better.
And again, I do think that is a theme in
the near term that will keep the S&P
performing a little bit better overall
than the NASDAQ and the NASDAQ 100. All
right, so we're going to keep an eye on
this level. Right now, the level on the
S&P to watch is 7300. If we were to
break and confirm below 7,300, I think
you guys have heard my level before.
Basically, you have this area right in
here, this former high before the
pullback that led us into the March low
that now becomes technical support. All
right, looking at the dollar, the dollar
is getting a small bounce today. Nothing
much going on here. We still see that we
are in this kind of resistance zone on
the DXY. Remember, the DXY is the dollar
against a basket of currencies. I would
say one of the top things that I'm
concerned about obviously the
semiconductor unwind trade is a big one
but when we go to the currency markets
and what affects the overall global
market system you're really looking at
the dollar yen the dollar yen continues
if we look at the USD JPY here this
continues to be hammering on this big
level and there's continuing chatter
about intervention in the currency
markets to kind keep the dollar yen from
breaking sharply higher. All right, so
this is basically telling us that the W
the yen has weakened substantially
against the dollar. While if you look at
the euro and the pound and other
currencies, they've actually held up
much much better in this recent push up
in against the US dollar. Right? So
again, it's really the yen, but remember
this affects hundreds of billions, if
not trillions of dollars within the
carry trade, and that's where it can get
very scary for the overall markets when
you see a run on liquidity or a
deleveraging event based on the US
dollar yen chart. Okay, so that's where
we are there. The 10-year yield, we'll
be keeping an eye on this week. We have
a 10-year bond auction later this week
as well as a 30-year bond auction.
Yields right now are down a little bit
on the day. There's nothing here that's
really getting my attention. We have a
high pivot here at around 4.7%.
That's your line in the sand to the
upside. If we break above that, we
likely go to 5%. On the downside, you
have this zone here, which is right
around 4.35%.
And again, that continues to be
short-term technical support, even as
low as the 4.3% level. All right, we're
going to turn our attention to some
stocks and some ETFs that are getting my
attention. Before we do that though,
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cool. All right, back to the charts we
go. Here, guys. If we take a look, look
at the IBB. Now, we talked about money
rotation, and I'm going to divulge to
you guys what I think the next hot area
of the AI trade is. And this is
something that again, you're not hearing
in the mainstream media yet. You're not
even hearing it on the offstream media.
It is the AI impact on pharmaceuticals.
So, we haven't really gotten that vibe
yet, but you see big money is already
attacking this trade. Look at the IBB.
The IBB had this beautiful long base of
consolidation after a big bull move. If
we look at this, right, look at the
beauty of this chart right here. So, you
essentially had from the high here in
November of 2025 all the way to the June
breakout. This was a bull flag of
consolidation. Look at the run this
thing had from the April 2025 lows to
that high. And then you had this base of
consolidation, almost an inverse head
and shoulders pattern. And then look at
the breakout. Now, I'm not chasing this.
I can't chase something that is up this
much. But if it were to pull back, let's
say to this level, heck yeah, 178 or so,
175, I would look to go long. But the
key here is understanding that you want
to start scoping out other plays. Now,
you may say, well, how does AI, I mean,
how does a chip, an AI, Nvidia chip help
AI or help the biotech field or this
pharmaceutical field? And the answer is
this is that we've already seen the
memory stocks run. We've seen the chip
stocks had runs and they still have like
ARM holdings and Marll technologies,
ASML, all of these companies. But what
we haven't seen is how the excitement
over using AI and then supercomputers to
cure diseases is going to be the next
front. And this is where I start looking
at beaten down names like a
pharmaceutical play like Fizer. And
again, the key here is I don't chase
moves. So if something's already up 30,
40, 50% off of its lows, I step back.
But I look for names that have been
beaten down where the narrative could
switch like a Fizer, right? And Fizer's
chart, by the way, does not look amazing
right now. But when we zoom out on it,
look at how low it is relative to where
it's been, right? We go back to this and
it's paying basically, I think it's
paying a 7% dividend. these type of
names. I mean, if this were to come down
a little bit more, maybe back towards
double bottom here, 22 21, you bring in
AI and using AI to start analyzing data
and potentially cure or bring forward
big drug developments and these biotechs
and these pharmaceuticals could have
their next bull run in the next 6 to 12
months. In addition, you got to believe
that the money rotation out of some of
these memory plays and some of these
other AI plays are going to find their
homes in these type of names. So, I
always like to bring a longer term view
of alpha. And again, not to say this is
a 10-year horizon trade, but it's it's
an idea that probably plays out over the
next 6 to 12 months versus most of my
swing trades are like in the next few
days to the next week or two, right? So,
that's one of them that I wanted to
bring forward to you guys. Now, let's
move on to some other names. So we
talked about how uh there's a little bit
of a bounce being staged here on Micron.
The concern for me on Micron is that
this is a bounce until we see further
downside. What do I mean by that? Well,
very clearly look at the trend line. You
have a trend line here. We closed below
and we confirmed which means that Micron
could bounce but once it gets back to
this trend line which is around the 1100
level or just below there's going to be
a massive level of resistance there. And
so keep that on your radar. I actually
think again now bounces on Micron of
significance into resistance are
shortable opportunities. In addition,
don't forget SKH Highix which is
essentially the clone company of Micron
in uh South Korea trading on the Cosby.
They are selling $29 billion in shares
on the US market via ADR advanced
depository receipt. They are selling it
this week. I believe it's July 10th. So
later this week, you will see another
share dump on the US markets, $29
billion sucking up liquidity, and that's
going to directly compete with Micron,
SanDisk, and other players for investor
dollars. And so again, that's one more
kind of headwind for a name like Micron.
In addition, I divulged last week that
Apple is actively petitioning the US
government to let them buy memory from
China companies that are right now
banned from selling to US companies. Uh
again, that would be opening up the
memory uh opportunity, essentially
diluting and and selling more chips,
right? It would it would essentially be
more supply coming onto the market. Now,
don't forget when we look at the
semiconductor trade, even though you had
a great sell-off last week, I mean, you
still look at this chart and say, "Okay,
well, it still looks okay." And the SOXX
is bouncing today. But if we look at the
weekly chart, don't forget we had an
engulfing reversal candle right here.
Engulfing reversal candles are the most
powerful chart reversal signals out
there on an individual candle basis.
When you open above the high of the last
candle and you're at all-time highs and
you close on the weekly below, that is
an epic engulfing reversal candle.
Notice how last week we traded up on it.
You spiked almost and then look, the
power of the chart came through and we
sold off. So, in this situation, I'd be
looking for maybe a bare flag formation
starting to form like this and then look
for that next level to the downside or
that next flush to the downside on the
semiconductor trade. Other stocks on my
radar today, we have Delta Airlines,
which reports earnings later this week.
I am bearish on Delta Delta Airlines
going into earnings. It is down a little
bit pre-market here, but essentially you
can see this trend line how here it was
support and then it broke and then every
time it goes up to this line it gets
rejected. You also got a topping tail
here which is a bearish reversal signal
and that has not been negated yet. And
again they report earnings on Friday
after a run from March from $55 to
almost $100. So for an airline stock
that's a massive move. Now, when you
combine that with oil trading
essentially at gap fill support, if oil
bounces, what do we think Delta might
do? Delta could sell off if oil bounces
up. And I do I am bullish on oil in the
near term. Even though I'm bearish mid
to long-term on oil, I do think that we
are at a level now where oil could see a
resurgence to about $79 per barrel. All
right, Oracle's on my radar today. It is
up a little bit in the pre-market.
There's a gap filled down here around
137 and a half. If it were to fill that
gap today, I'd be looking for a bounce.
It's had nine straight down days in a
row. And if we look at the drop here
from June 1st, the move down in June was
just an epic drop in Oracle, but there
is some technical support here around
that 13750 level. Uh JP Morgan put in a
topping tail. All right. about a week
ago. Major topping tail bearish reversal
signal. Not as good as a bearish
reversal engulfing candle, but it's
second to that. So, it's still pretty
powerful. We got a move up last late
last week. And then we should see if
this pattern holds, we should see JP
Morgan trade down. Don't forget earnings
season, and this is my favorite season
of the year, and it comes four times a
year, which is pretty cool. uh earning
season begins next week with the bank
stocks reporting and then we'll get into
tech in the rest of July and that is
going to create added volatility for the
overall markets. All right. So again,
keep an eye on JPM, but again, JPM chart
is bearish. And remember everything I'm
talking about there's this doesn't
really matter what I think or what I
feel. What are the charts telling us?
And this is where we get into the whole
mantra of verified investing, which is
all charts and data. No BS is that a
topping tail is a topping tail until it
fails. And so it's not up to me to say,
"Oh, I like JPM, so I'm going to stay
bullish." It's like, dude, the the chart
is the chart. There's no other way. It's
just it is what it is. Now, can can a
chart fail? Absolutely. But until it
fails, the probabilities favor a
downside move on something like JP
Morgan Chase. All right, couple other
things here. Let's go into gold. Gold
was initially higher today after a good
bounce last week. Look at this great
bounce off this technical support.
Again, major resistance just around that
4250 level. And again, we are in a
downsloping wedge right now on gold. The
question is which direction does it
break? Does it break to the upside or
does it break to the downside?
Basically, by August, this is going to
have to break one way or the other. So,
you're going to start to get a bigger
move in gold. Uh the question is again,
is it a final flush down to 35 3600 or
is it a breakout above 4250 that then
starts its climb back to all-time highs?
Mid to long-term, I'm very bullish on
gold, but near-term, I remain skeptical
that the lows are in. Same thing on
silver here, guys. If we look at silver,
look at how silver broke major uh
support here at this 64 level which then
became resistance and look at where it
went and it's now getting rejected. This
is also an inside bar pattern which is
slightly bearish. So the angle on silver
remains bearish to the downside. Natural
gas today, beautiful cup and handle
continues to form. I drew it in so you
guys can see it when you're looking. And
and again, I talk about this pattern,
but oftent times this this is a way for
you guys to really see it better. We're
just kind of hovering here. Um the
handle is forming. And so listen, is it
a bullish pattern? Yes. Does it trigger?
Has it triggered? The answer is no.
Trigger would be a breakout above this
downsloping trend line. Notice the cup
side over here to the cup side here. And
it touches perfectly along this line. If
it breaks out, that's your trigger right
there. All right, guys. That would be
the breakout above 335. Target would be
above $4 if we get that breakout.
Lastly, Bitcoin. Bitcoin is pulling back
sharply today. Notice Bitcoin had a
great move over the weekend as well. So,
just keep an eye on that. I mean, again,
not surprising after one, two, three,
four, five updates in a row to get some
sort of retrace. In addition, if we look
at this, you had Friday, Saturday, and
Sunday. So, it's going back to when the
markets were closing, right? So, here's
Thursday, which is the last trading day
of last week for the stock market.
Notice how we had good upside here for
the the weekend, essentially the holiday
weekend. And now price has come back in
literally to the price that Bitcoin was
when the stock market closed last
Thursday. It just kind of shows you that
because Bitcoin trades over the weekends
24/7. It does tend to kind of deviate
over those, but then by the time it
comes back and the stock market reopens,
it kind of grounds itself again and gets
back into it. All right, last thing I'll
mention guys before I get going.
Remember every course at Verified
Investing is 40% off. That sale ends
though on the 12th. So again, we
basically have less than a week left of
that sale. Winning trader series is
discounted 40%. My my psychology course
which delves into the mind and getting
your mind focused. 40% off. Take
advantage of this because it won't we
won't do another sale until the end of
the year. So it's basically this. We do
two sales a year. Make sure you go and
take advantage of that. All right, guys.
I'm going to get going. Thank you guys
so much for joining me on my vacation. I
appreciate it. As always, I'm going to
try to bring my alpha to you guys
whether I'm on vacation or I'm not. And
as of now, folks, you guys have a great
rest of the day.