Massive Tech Capital Rotation Triggers Major Weekly Topping Tails

Hello everybody. Welcome to Trading the
Close. My name is Drew Dosek and guys,
what a rip rallying roller coaster
today. up and down in the market. Semies
were beat down today. Jobs report came
out early this morning, weaker than
anticipated initially. That hit the
10-year yield as that did fall down, but
the 10-year recovered throughout the
day. And guys, we have a great show for
you today. I've got one of the most
strongest signals for negative downward
pressure to illustrate to you. That's a
weekly topping tail. And they're
appearing everywhere on a lot of tech
stocks this week. We're going to get
into those charts. Got a lot to go
through. So, let's jump right into it,
guys. Guys, look at the spiders. Now,
we're putting in a close down only.13%
today, but if you did not watch the
markets today, that was not the story.
Look at the wicks on the top and the
bottom of that S&P 500 uh 500 daily
candle. Get into the 10-minute time
frame, and guys, we were looking like we
were about to go up above this declining
trend line today, and then all of a
sudden at 10:20, that narrative changed.
100% because of look at that selling
pressure that occurred today bringing
price all the way down underneath this
inclining trend line. And then in the
last 30 to 40 minutes of the day, look
at that bounce. All these investors
covering shorts when this was cascading
lower nearly all day today. But at the
end of the day, where did we close?
Basically in line with where we were
yesterday. So right now on the S&P 500,
there's really nothing new to report. We
tested the top and bottom range of where
today's price action could be. That
certainly could be the case moving into
Monday of next week. Now guys, today and
this week generally should be pushing up
lighter volume holiday week. We've had
window dressing at the end of the
quarter. We had new money flow at the
beginning of this month. We generally
should even be pushing up more today
because simply we're right into a
holiday week, but we had some
volatility. That's the story of the day
where we normally would have been
generally floating to the upside,
potentially testing the top end of this
declining trend line, maybe just hanging
out there all day, but that was not the
case. Big selling pressure in tech
illustrated a little bit clearer here on
the QQQ. You see here, I was talking
earlier this morning that if we were
going to get up, it would be a big
stretch for us to reach this level up
here at 738. Well, man, we didn't even
sniff that. We sold off pretty hard on
the hourly time frame. We did move up
ever so slightly to start the day, but
we never got green on the Q's. We just
remained negative and we just plummeted
down all day. very nice move on the
charts that you see here on the QQQ
finishing at the lower range of its
price action but all the while
developing some nice wicks here on the
bottom range of the hourly time frame.
So back to the daily still will leave
this area in contention if we see
selling pressure next week at 70432.
If we break that next week, next level
of support is going to be down here at
695 and 26. Both of which are
illustrated by the low pivots from these
candles that you see drawn with the
trend lines on your screen. Next up, the
SMH. Guys, this was where most of the
bleeding occurred today, down 4.54%
getting down lower than the low pivot
that occurred Monday on June 29th. One
of our members did uh also highlight
today in the live day trading room.
Drew, we're still not making lower lows.
That's correct. In order to do so, we
would need to get beneath this June uh
9th low wick candle down here at roughly
uh at 55466.
If you notice, that's actually just
above a support level, too. Now, if you
flip on the simple moving averages, as
you can see here, we caught support on
the 20 moving average, bounced up, went
down, hit the 20 moving average again,
bounced up, and then this is the first
time we are getting this close to the 50
moving average, this blue moving
average. Even if we come down, say on
Monday, this area should produce a
little bit of a bounce, especially if we
continue straight down into it. That 50
moving average is at $57,950.
But be uh very cautious at this area as
we're starting to form a left shoulder,
a head, and what could be a right
shoulder for any pending bounce should
we tag that 50 moving average and bounce
right back up. Uh next up into the
10-year yield. Now, guys, also look at
this on the 10-minute chart. Right here
was when uh the non-farm payrolls came
out. You can see we just went straight
down on the chart of the 10-year yield,
came back up, retested this trend line,
dropped again, and then finished the day
up here above this trend line. So on the
daily time frame, you can see this right
here, 4.484%.
That's that threshold where if the
10-year yield gets back above and
confirms unlike it did over here on the
uh June 23rd and 22nd, then we're going
to be attacking this 4.55%
level on the 10-year yield. And guys,
let me zoom back out to show you what
this looks like as well. What is this
move up and all of this chop resemble?
That looks an awful lot like bullish
consolidation, guys. And I'm I'm not
trying to be a fear-mongerer by any
stretch of the imagination. This morning
on trading game plan, I talked about how
the Fed watch tool was actually
increasing probabilities for rate hikes.
And people were like, "Ah, there's going
to be no rate hikes. You're
fear-mongering." All right. Well, you
want to see where I'm getting this data?
All I'm doing is looking at the chart,
folks. So, look at this right here. You
can see this is the Fed CME Fed watch
tool. Now this number and these columns
change with any given data point such as
uh non uh farm payrolls, jobs jolts
reports or even inflation data. All of
these prediction and percentage uh
chances for increase in rates on the
right column or a rate cut over here on
the left column. Now where we're at
right here is where our current rates
are. And you can see on this July
meeting, it's almost locked and loaded.
There will be no rate change. There's no
chance of a rate cut at 000000
all the way down until April 28th of
2027. But you can see here starting in
September, it's basically a coin flip
chance on whether we maintain the same
rates or we put in a rate hike. And if
we don't do it here in September, look,
October's even more weighted for a rate
hike with even increased percentages
over here for multiple hikes. hasn't
gotten to be the majority yet, but you
can clearly see the Fed is leaning more
towards rate hikes than cuts. And this
is where the data is. You can you can
watch this yourself. Look at this
website, cmeroup.com.
Go to the probabilities and you can pull
up this chart all on your own. Now,
that's where the data is. That's why I'm
reporting. That's what we're doing,
guys. We're technical traders here. So,
I pay attention to the data as that's
going to help guide us to where the next
move in the market is going to occur.
Now, let me take time to thank one of
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here on the QR code or click the link in
the description bene below. All right,
guys. Right back into the charts we go
and we're going to flip into gold. Now,
with the 10-year yield kind of gyating,
gold did actually see a little bit of
upside movement today. Now, I want to
see near-term if we close above this
candle here from June 24th with a high
of $4,115.
That would be near-term bullish on gold.
If you notice, we're combating the 50%
area of this parallel. this inclining
trend line that you see dating all the
way back here to the April 2025 lows.
That's the liberation day lows. So,
we've gotten underneath that trend line
now fighting to get back above it. If
we're able to close above this candle,
we likely will accomplish two things.
One, above the candle, then two, the 50%
area of the parallel. Now, if we can get
a close over the trend line, which
currently is at $4,139,
in essence, anything over $4,140,
that would be near-term bullish for
gold. Not to say we're going to go to
all brand new all-time highs, but that
at least would get itself out of this
bearish consolidation that it's been
trapped in over the last seven or so
trading days. Now, silver not getting up
as much on the chart as gold is. As you
can see here, clearly, we're not getting
up over this candle from June 24th. So,
still remaining in bearish
consolidation. Next resistance will come
on this declining trend line taken from
a pivot on May 13th, drawn over to the
next major pivot on June 17th. That
level next week is $63.32.
Next up into US oil. Took a little bit
more of a dive today, but then recovered
to finish slightly green on the day.
Now, if we did get a close underneath
yesterday's low, that would increase
probabilities for more downside,
confirming a break from this declining
trend line. We did not get that today,
meaning that price could easily go back
through this trend line as a small speed
bump and get right back into the
consolidation that we were in the
previous four or five trading days. So,
be mindful of that going into Monday.
Watch and see on Monday if we get a
daily close under this July 1st candle
that will then increase probabilities to
come down and tag $6460.
Next up, NAC gas. Not too much to report
today. Had a little bit of downside, but
is finishing basically right in line
with yesterday's close. Still near-term
a little bit bearish because we did
break down from this inclining trend
line and have since retested that trend
line and come down on the charts. But
guys, let me flip to the weekly and show
you this. This looks like a move up and
a lot of consolidation. So, we are doing
a good job uh determining with technical
analysis near-term we should be coming
down. That's what's been happening the
last several days of trading. But on a
larger time frame, it looks like a nice
consolidation pattern is uh developing
right underneath the bottom area of this
parallel channel, which could lead to us
breaking into it later in the summer
when we're going to be uh needing more
NAT gas here in North America. likely
could break up into that parallel and
then finally test that $3.58 level. Uh
next up into Bitcoin. Nice day today. Up
2.26% still contained in this bearish
consolidation. Next resistance will be
on here uh on this inclining trend line.
63,615.
All right guys, into some stocks. Look
at all these stocks we got to go through
on the top of the screen. So let's just
wait no further and jump right into it.
Look at this nasty sell candle on Tesla,
guys. Yesterday Tesla was in breakout
watch. We needed to push higher than
yesterday's candle and put in a close up
here in the $435 range. We did not get
that at all, guys. Look at that
rejection from this potential breakout
scenario here on Tesla. That brings us
potentially all the way back down here
to this inclining trend line taken from
a pivot with liberation day lows as the
next level of support. That's roughly
going to be at the recent double bottom
from June 26, roughly right around $370.
Incredible rejection here on the chart
of Tesla. Next up, another rejection.
Sandis, guys, look at this. Down $287,
$14.13%.
Most importantly, near-term breaking
this inclining parallel channel in which
price has been contained since this
March low pivot. Now, guys, we had a
little bit of foreshadowing. This is
going to foreshadow what I'm going to go
over in these next charts. We had a
daily topping tail right here printed on
June 22nd. Since then, price has not
gotten back above it, nor closed above
it, and we have just slid straight down
on the chart. Now, for any sort of
confirmed break come Monday, we need to
see price get under today's lows and
close. That could be a tall stretch
considering we did drop so much out of
this parallel channel. So, we'll be
watching for confirmation in the coming
trading days. uh unlikely to see it on
Monday. Incredible move though. But one
stock that did not have a move down,
MRNA. Look at this pop up 10% today,
piercing and closing above this fib
resistance level at $78.91.
I'll zoom back out on the chart. You can
see here mRNA has been trading in a
declining parallel channel since
December of 2022. It really lost favor
after the COVID uh hysteria and
everybody piling into mRNA. considering
that they did have a major control on
the vaccine. So with this current move,
we're a little bit extended over the 70
threshold on the RSI for the daily time
frame. So we could be due to stall out
at any given moment. However, I do uh
caution and warn you any investors in
MRNA, this is likely going to be the
stopping point. $100, the area on the
top of this parallel channel. Now, yes,
we could chop here for for maybe a week
or two and then the next leg up will be
that level at $100 with an awful lot of
resistance. If we get rejected right
here at this resistance, considering how
overbought we are, support level for a
potential reattack of that top end of
the parallels at $6265.
All right, guys. Rapid fire coming up
here with these charts. I'm not going to
break them down with a bunch of TA and
all of the support, but I bring these to
your attention to understand what weekly
topping tales are. All right, all sorts
of topping tails, daily, 10 minute, one
minute, you name it, can all be played
when you find them on the charts and how
they can be done, how they can be played
is really simple. You wait either for
price to retrace to the 50% area or
retrace to the 75% area of that topping
tail. Jump into the opposite direction.
this case a short of a topping tail and
then you can stop out if price closes
above that topping tail. Keeping your
risk very small and the reward very
large much like how I like to train and
aim for breakout retrace bounce plays
very minimal risk very large potential
reward. So let's get into these charts
guys. So first up with onto look at this
massive weekly topping tail that just
printed today piercing the top range of
this near-term parallel channel. You can
see here breaking that parallel channel
will be at $281.
Next up, KAC. Massive topping tail. Next
support 20861.
Look at another one. AAT. Massive
topping tail right here. Getting itself
outside of this inclining parallel
channel where all these days had been
contained marching up through this
chart. Now, one day outside of parallel
channel does not confirm a breakdown.
But if you combine that information with
what I see on this chart with a weekly
topping tail, oh goodness, guys, this is
not looking good near-term for any of
these charts. Another one, LRCX, another
weekly topping tail implying multiple
weeks of downside pressure. RRX, another
weekly topping tail, right at the top of
its consolidation. Looking like it was
about to break out, but not this week.
Jamming that weekly topping tail right
at the top of the chart. How about some
big dogs? What about Intel? Weekly
topping tail. All at the top of this
parallel channel, guys. You do not want
to see that if you're a bull on these
stocks because that implies again more
downside pressure likely to the $100
level. Next up, another big dog, AMD.
Now, look at this dogee candle and a
previous weekly topping tail that we
have not yet gotten out of. We have now
weekly topping tail June 1st. Weekly
topping tail June 29th.
guys, that's that's not something that
makes me eager to jump into to go long.
Matter of fact, I'm going to be looking
uh actively for support levels on all of
these stocks. And then in essence,
watching to see how much it retraces
next week to see if I can put out a
couple puts and or execute a couple
shorts to see if these weekly topping
tails end up playing out. Another one,
ASML, right at the top of consolidation.
Another one, UMC. Now, this took place
last week, but you can see here what
happens. The following week, we made a
nice retrace, got as high as $2727.
Look over here on the right side of your
screen. 50% retrace of that topping tail
is at 26.92. It accomplished that this
week and then went kplunk and went lower
than last week's candle. So, that's what
you can anticipate happening in these
following weeks after these massive
topping tails are printed. Lastly,
another example of what can happen on
semiconductors. Printed a weekly topping
tail here, June 1st. Look at the
following three weeks. We went all the
way up as high as $13242,
tagging and piercing this 75% retrace
level at $130.14.
I'd say you'd probably be a happy camper
at this point if you got in at $130.
Look at that decline. 30%
decline in just a matter of a week or
two. That's the power of these topping
tales. That's why it's so puzzling to
see on the SMH this topping tail on the
weekly time frame get negated in two
weeks, but then it backed it up with
that big engulfing reversal candle.
Equally as negative as that topping
tail. Really wild stuff that's going on
on the charts of tech. But guys, it kind
of makes sense. When tech rallies out of
control, the selling I it just makes me
so nervous because everybody's getting
on board and saying, "Yeah, it's going
to go forever. AI will rule forever."
But guys, when the time comes of
selling, when something's gone up so
fast, it can go down equally as fast.
That's the warning. Congratulations to
anybody that caught these long. But
guys, right now I'm starting to see, as
you've seen clearly, all of these weekly
topping tails, all of these negative
signs on the charts, plus hikes coming
around the corner. Doesn't sound like I
want to start just piling into these
stocks. We'll see next week that
narrative changes, but man, this week I
anticipated being calm. It was none of
that this week. Wild, wild stuff. Guys,
don't forget on top of that, you want to
learn some education over this holiday
weekend. you got some extra time. We
have 40 up to 40% off our educational
courses. Do yourself a favor. Invest in
yourself. That way you can recognize
these when I am long and gone and not
doing these videos any longer. All
right, guys. Thanks so much for watching
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technical analysis. Guys, we'll be back
here on Monday. Until then, everybody,
stay safe, have a happy holiday, and we
look forward to seeing you next week
right here on the charts. Take care,
folks.