Massive NFP Jobs Miss! Markets Pop But Rate Hikes Loom

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>> Hello, good morning everybody. Welcome
to my trading game plan. My name is Drew
Dosik and guys, I'm filling in for
Gareth Soloway. He is out of the office
today, but guys, fireworks went off
already before 4th of July. We had the
non-farm payrolls number coming at
57,000 jobs added. That was much less
than 115,000 that was expected. So near
term, the markets popped off that news
because again, we're not the most of the
investors wanting to push the market up
are not really interested in rate hikes.
So missing that job figures was at least
a glimmer of hope for them, but all the
data most recently is still pointing
towards rate hikes coming as early as
September. Matter of fact, the most
recent data hitting the markets this
week show that we're likely to have
another rate hike come March of 2027. So
we'll be following that very closely,
but at least for today, small term,
we've had a little bit of a pop. Let's
get into these charts and see what's
going on. You can see the spiders closed
right here yesterday at 7:45 76. Now
trading at 7:47 this morning. If we look
on the 10-minute chart, you can see how
the jobs report really elevated
everything. Right here 8:30 is when that
report hit the market, but look, we're
already reversing course. And guys, like
I said, it was a little glimmer of hope,
but the FedWatch tool still remains
intact showing that we're still due for
rate hikes. That's why we're seeing the
selling pressure coming right back in.
Now, one thing to note for today, it's a
pre-holiday day. Generally,
historically, we have moved up on the
day. So if we continue to do that, the
next resistance intraday is going to be
found on this declining trend line just
under 750 points at 749 and 80. If we
get above and close above that, that
will be pretty key setting us up for
next week. As I've said, this is a
lighter volume day. Anticipate some
float action because a lot of
institutions and major players are
already on vacation. All right, into the
Qs. You can see here they are also
lifting up pre-market. The it would be a
nice push for the Qs to do this and tag
this level up here on the declining
trend line today at 738 63, but that is
a monumental push as we would get above
the highs there from Tuesday. So,
uncertain that we could get that high,
but that is the near-term resistance
should we see a float in the markets
today. Now, the main story for today and
the main thing I'm going to be following
are both the SMH and the 10-year yield
because that's really highlighting the
fact of how much risk on we've got and
the 10-year yield with it with it
ticking higher will certainly put
pressure on risk on equities like that
are contained in the semis. Now, we had
a beautiful decline yesterday 5.4%
down in the market. We're trying to
recapture some of that this morning up
five points. Near-term resistance though
will be yesterday's high on SMH as we
did decline so much. 639 89 will be
intraday resistance.
And most importantly, we are not going
to be negating this engulfing weekly
candle that you see here. That is a
mammoth negative sign on the charts.
Matter of fact, on that chart with SMH,
we had a weekly topping tail that got
negated 2 weeks later, but then followed
it up with an engulfing weekly reversal
candle. That is Both of those are very
negative signs. We'll see what
comes from this. Plus, we've got some
topping tails hitting the markets this
week, which we're going to analyze after
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Wallet. All right, guys, back into the
charts. Let's flip over to the 10-year
yield. As I said, that is where a lot of
the activity transpired this morning.
Now, notice our mammoth push up here on
Tuesday, and then Wednesday coming right
into this key resistance level
designated by this high pivot back here
on March 27th. This level is where we're
currently struggling to get above at
4.484%.
You can see here on the 10-minute chart
the non-farm payrolls data hit the
market right here 8:30 sending the
10-year yield down, allowing the markets
to get a little bit of a pop. Be
watching the 10-year throughout the
course of the day as the story will be
here. If we start getting back above
this level, that then paves the way for
us to go and attack this next declining
trend line above 4.55%.
That would be the warning track. In an
essence, anything over that, the markets
would likely be in some serious
pressure. All right, into gold. Gold
elevating up with the 10-year yield
pulling down. Notice how today we are
testing this inclining trend line. Near
term, this is all bearish consolidation
with price remaining under this trend
line. So, for us to get above it, that
would be very positive near term for
gold. This trend line is basically right
near where price is, $4,136.
Next resistance, should we get above
that and close above that in the future,
will be up here at $4,274.
Uh silver also poking up a little bit
today trying to get out of its bearish
consolidation. Much like on silver, we
have some near term on gold, we have
some near-term resistance on this
declining trend line that you see. Be
anticipating resistance should we have a
very nice pop today 6389, but likely
come next week 63 and 36 cents. In the
US oil, which is dropping this morning,
getting a little bit of a bounce off the
lows, but still nonetheless trading
underneath yesterday's lows. Next major
support here on US oil at $64 and 60
cents, but likely when price does break
these declining trend lines, and I'll
remind you this is a declining trend
line coming back from July of 2024,
connected over through these major
pivots. And as you see here, it's
provided support when price retested it
after getting above. So near-term, this
is the line to really pay attention to
as any bounces would find contention on
the chart of US oil right here at $69
and 45 cents.
Next up, Nat Gas continues its little
decline. We've covered this in trading
the close very closely over the coming
week or the last few weeks. You could
see we're clearly breaking this
inclining trend line. We've actually
confirmed this breakdown, and then we
retested here, in which case we were
expecting more downside, and that
downside is coming. Watch for a close
today underneath these low pivots. Low
pivot there at $3 and 14 cents. That
will increase probabilities for Nat Gas
to come back down and test this $3 and 3
cent level. Next up, Bitcoin elevating
pretty nicely today after several days
hanging out near the low range in the
price consolidation manner forming a
bear flag. So nice pop up on Bitcoin.
Near-term resistance is going to be
right here on this inclining trend line,
$63,493.
Still doesn't change the larger picture
on the weekly time frame of a head and
shoulders pattern with a targeted
measured move down here 37,508.
With a nice pop on Bitcoin today, what
also is popping? MSTR pulling up ever so
slightly today now testing $99
premarket. This is a key level for MSTR
to overcome. As you see, we've got a
larger declining parallel channel that
MSTR has recently broken beneath. Now
we're coming back up today and testing
the bottom range of that parallel. So
getting above that will be very
important for MSTR to get back into some
momentum pushing up on the chart. So the
key level to watch for today, $101.66.
If we get a close above that, look for a
follow-through next week as that can
then kickstart a test and a move towards
this trend line at resistance at
$131.51.
That would be a nice $30 pop. So it's
something that's brewing right now. Want
to put on your radar to see if we can
have a breakout into this parallel and
then a retest with in which case would
be a buying opportunity to move up on
the charts. Uh next up on on the hood.
Hood, as you see here, pushing up pretty
nicely the last several days. You could
see on Friday of last week we're at
$93.14.
Now Hood is trading up over 20%
premarket getting through this
resistance level of $110 that did cap
price action on June 22nd. Very nice a
gap up over this resistance today. Next
resistance I see on Hood is derived from
this uh pivot point from September 5th
of 2025 connected over to this major
pivot and notice how price put on the
brakes before breaking through it. Had
to consolidate all displaying that this
trend line carries value. Well, that
level today if price does get up there
in essence is $120 and that's where you
should start seeing resistance on Hood.
Uh next up into Roblox. This stock has
already broken out over the last three
trading days from this declining trend
line that you see here derived from
February 10th connected from pivot to
pivot. Price action closed above it on
Monday and then confirmed above that
trend line here on July 1st. That then
makes any sort of retrace down to this
trend line at $52.21
a buying opportunity for then a retrace
bounce play up to the next resistance at
$66.21.
Be mindful of this if we do put in daily
closes back underneath this declining
trend line, that's your spot to stop out
of the trade as that breakout retrace
potentially could have failed at that
point. That's one of the best parts of
that trade setup. It's a very minimal
loss for a daily close underneath that
trend line, but a very high reward
potential with a bounce play up there to
$66.21.
Last two charts, guys. Potential weekly
uh topping tail watch, GLW. Look at this
mammoth weekly topping tail. Now, we did
have a weekly topping tail back here in
the week of May 11th. Notice that made
price action decline from tip to bottom.
We declined about 21%
even though this does look like sideways
consolidation, which it ended up being
where we had price action break out
above. However, we had a topping tail
here now developing another major
topping tail. We could be seeing more
downside pressure on GLW. Look at the
daily price action yesterday and we
before that on Tuesday, daily topping
tail. So, a weekly topping tail in check
there for GLW. Be mindful of that. Great
way to play those if we print one today
is to wait for price to retrace either
50% or 75% up, then take that short and
if price closes weekly above that
candle, take the stop out. Otherwise,
probabilities are showing we likely
should be coming down on that chart if
that weekly topping tail prints. Lastly,
guys, AMAT is on the radar for a
potential weekly topping tail. Very
similar price action like with GLW. Big
decline yesterday, but we're starting to
rally back up with the rest of the
markets today. We'll see if the light
volume flow will negate these potential
topping tails, but it is still a shorter
trading week, and it's a week that we
generally do anticipate upside with
window dressing going into the end of
the quarter at the very end of June.
Then we roll right into the 4th of July
holiday with lighter volume. So selling
pressure this week is something people
and investors should pay very close
attention to. It's It's something that
is generally bucking the norm. So we're
seeing some very decent volatility this
week. All right, guys. Thanks so much
for watching today. My name is Drew
Dosik. Don't forget to like and
subscribe to the video. Plus also send
this out to your friends and family so
they too can learn technical analysis on
the charts. I'll be right back here
trading the close once the market
closes. Until then, you guys have a
fantastic day, and we'll see you on the
charts. Take care, everybody.