Tech Plunges 5% As Sticky Inflation Renews Fed Rate Hikes

[music]
[music]
>> Hello everybody. Welcome to Trading the
Close. My name is Drew Dosik and guys
today was kind of a wild day. The S&P
500 finished almost flat, but it was a
lot more turbulence in both the Qs and
the SMH. And guys, we covered that
yesterday how SMH was returning to that
broken trend line. I've I've really
almost put a copyright on that sort of
move here in this show. That's the break
it's the inverse, but it's a breakdown
retrace and breakdown play. One we're
going to go over, but a lot of pressure
was in the semis today mainly because
again what happened a couple weeks ago
with the hot jobs report, hot inflation
report. We had a some more data hit the
markets today. The ISM PMI was ISM
manufacturing PMI data hit at 10:00. It
came in slightly under expectations
which allowed the markets to at least
have a breather and push up for a little
bit, but still it was elevated meaning
that the you know the build out in the
United States is doing well. Jolts came
in great this week as well. Now that
sets us up for nonfarm payrolls tomorrow
morning and almost solidifies a rate
hike. And we're going to talk about that
a little bit more on the 10-year yield.
But first off, let's look into the S&P
500. As we see here with the S&P, we did
put in somewhat of a decent day. We were
down ever so slightly 0.14%
and we maintained within yesterday's
trading action. But look at the wicks on
top and the bottom. So selling pressure
and buyers were present today in the
markets, but we really didn't move too
much in the S&P 500. Since we did now
put in two days of confirming close
inside of this wedge that now brings
this level as support should we see more
selling pressure in the semis and it
spread further into S&P 500 tomorrow.
That level is at $741.49
to watch and that should be at least
intraday support for tomorrow if not
should hold all the way through the day
tomorrow. Next up into the Qs. The Qs
here as you see a little bit weaker down
1.52%
as tech was really getting hit hardest.
You got to think of that too. If we're
going to have rate hikes potentially on
the horizon higher rates
generally do more damage to growth
sector which is mainly tech. However,
for this main AI data center build out a
lot of these companies have very very
deep pockets. So some of them aren't
going to be as affected as others. But
nonetheless, tech was under pressure
today. You see post market price action
coming down a little bit further getting
as low as Tuesday's low. That could then
set us up for a retest of this pivot low
that occurred back here on June 5th at
7:04 and $32. That's a long way to go,
but just remember on Monday we marched
straight up nearly that entire distance.
First off, I don't anticipate us hitting
that tomorrow. This is a holiday week.
It's going to be lighter volume. We're
more likely to get into some if we're
going to have any further selling
pressure sometime Tuesday or Wednesday
of next week as Monday will be almost
like a hangover day from the holiday
with people taking an extra day to get
some more vacation time. But guys,
here's really where the whole story is
of the day. The SMH down 5.4%
not down 1 and 1/2 like the Qs. We're
down 5.4% here on the semis. Plus we're
coming down a little bit further after
hours. Guys, I already I already
highlighted this to you guys. We broke
down, confirmed the breakdown here on
Friday now making this trend line
resistance as as as much as we rallied
up on Monday and Tuesday I didn't see
any reason why we couldn't just trail
this area for the next couple days and
then attempt to try to get over, but
this did exactly what TA is supposed to
do when we do have a breakdown and a
confirming signal. Whenever we retrace,
we get rejected from that retrace. Now,
the thing is and the major question, the
million-dollar question, how long will
this retrace last? So, I'm pulling price
down on the chart. How long? Because the
semis have literally been saved from all
sorts of negative pressure, including
this weekly topping tail that was
negated 2 weeks later. Now, we have an
engulfing reversal candle still intact,
still in play, putting downward
momentum. Plus, we have this trend line
confirming break. That tells me we
should be coming down, folks, but we'll
see. I'm not going to hold my breath.
Next area of support is going to be down
here at this low pivot, 555.18. There
will be some stops along the way around
the 582 level, but this is going to be
the major one that I'll be watching to
see if price can get saved, almost like
a near-term double bottom scenario. And
in essence, you can see this is a very
sharply inclining
uh pattern of us rolling over,
highlighted by this inclining trend
line. Now, into the yields, guys. You
see the yields pushing back up, testing
this key level pivot that I highlighted
a couple weeks ago at 4.483%.
We had a very nice decline. Matter of
fact, a little fakeout right here with
no confirming move above it. Now, we
find ourselves right back in this
location, all because why? Because rate
hikes again are on the table. Now, guys,
after that um uh data hit today, we did
have the Fed Watch Tool actually
increased rates for potential hikes. So,
we were looking like we were going to be
going into July's meeting with a 60%
chance of no rate hike. Now, that's a
72% chance of no rate hike, at least for
July. We'll see what the nonfarm
payrolls does to us tomorrow if that
changes that figure. However, instead of
October being our rate cut, we've now
bumped that up to September. September
16th now holds the highest percentage of
a potential cut at 49.8%
but then also what came about after
today was a potential hike in March,
March 17th. We are looking at a
potential another hike. That was not on
the table before today's data. And you
could see on the 10-year yield, the
10-year yield continued to push up
getting into that level. Now um higher
rates for longer can spook a lot of
investors as I've explained in the show.
Whenever the 10-year is going to be
pushing up, there's going to be a number
of investors that decide to exit on
equities, exit on some of the growth uh
sector stocks. That's just how it is.
And so if the Fed is forecasting rate
hikes, we are certainly going to be
having higher rates for longer.
Remember, we rolled into 2026
anticipating rate cuts this year. That's
not the narrative anymore. We'll see how
much tomorrow increases the chances for
rate hikes. But truly phenomenal and
will bring pressure on tech.
Uh first off, before I get into gold, I
do want to thank one of our sponsors,
Rumble Wallet. They make buying uh
crypto uh very easy because they link uh
they use MoonPay and they link your bank
account, credit card, or even debit card
to be able to purchase Bitcoin, Tether,
stable coins, you name it. But the most
important, you could use a credit card
to load up your account, guys. Maximize
the points both on the credit card and
on getting some of these nice stable
coins or either Tether Gold. Uh now one
of the great things, too, it's
non-custodial. So you have full control
of your wallet. So do yourself a favor,
scan that QR code or click on the link
in the description for more details
about Rumble Wallet. All right, guys,
back into the charts. Let's get into
gold. Gold and silver had somewhat of a
uh no show today cuz everything was
sideways with price action. We did have
some fluctuation, but look where we're
closing, still keeping this bearish
consolidation. Looking like gold is
eyeing the next level of support,
$3,886.
Silver very much the same thing. Wicks
today and yesterday on top and bottom of
price action maintaining this bearish
consolidation slightly more positive
than gold pushing up. However, still
looking like more downside pressure to
come. 5509 will likely be a speed bump
before we head straight down to this
next level of support $49.89.
Next up into US oil. Look at oil finally
breaking this declining trend line. This
was bearish consolidation one of which I
anticipated a bounce on and I'm not
going to lie. I anticipated a bigger
bounce over here on this previous level
of support. Not getting it on US oil
looking like we are headed lower folks.
So first support $64.60.
You may get a little of support here at
this gap fill, but the 6460 will likely
be the area in which you're going to get
more of sticking power with oil falling
down. Notice all these pivots strong all
the way across. Plus I love scenarios on
charts where we have price come down and
then at this area, this region where you
have these low pivots ends up being the
high pivots on other occasions when
price is coming from the bottom side.
That tells me that area basically 6460,
6470 should be a lot of support near
term for oil. Maybe we get our bounce
there to then re-attack this declining
trend line at that moment, but very
curious even with conflicts in the
Middle East kind of being
stop and go situation.
We still are coming down on oil largely
because there's more oil entering
the the marketplace too even with the
Strait of Hormuz having question marks.
Next up into nat gas continues its
downward movement putting in more
bearish consolidation near term on the
daily chart. Not too much new to
report here. We've already broken down
and confirmed this breakdown. Hit that
level of resistance on this inclining
trend line. That tells us price should
get rejected and that's exactly what's
happened so far. Next level of support
down here at $3. and 3 cents. Next up
into Bitcoin still chopping sideways,
guys, in the bearish consolidation. Look
at the weekly time frame. This still
should paint the uh the the picture that
I'm seeing, at least, for Bitcoin. Head
and shoulders pattern not has been has
not yet been negated. That targets down
here sub $40,000 at 37,508.
As long as we maintain this bearish
consolidation, this is where we're
eyeing down here. Now, it doesn't mean
we won't get nice bounces, likely even
breaching the $50,000 mark with this low
pivot here on August 5th will bring in a
lot of buyers uh into Bitcoin. So, be
anticipating some good levels of
support, 53 and 50,000 before we
potentially hit that head and shoulders
target uh down at the bottom of that
chart. Uh next up into Meta. Meta had a
great day today, at one point up over
10% closing the day 8.81% up on the day.
And what happened with it? It actually
has
um you know, new uh service where Meta
was announcing that they were going to
rent out AI compute. And they're going
to do it for profiting. So, AI is still
driving the marketplace, and them
renting out this space is hopefully for
them another source of revenue, and you
can see a monster push testing the
bottom end of this parallel channel. One
of the major reasons and one of the cool
things about technical analysis, leave
that information on the chart because
those lines often time will come back
and be important at a later date,
particularly the longer term inclining
parallels or longing longer term trend
lines, all right? So, much like on Meta,
let's zoom back out and see this
parallel. This parallel started back
here in December of 2023, yet it's
influencing price today, folks. That's
amazing. Look at that little pierce
right here, getting rejected at the
re-entry of that parallel at $627.62.
Price came all the way back down, and
this is the near-term support. We
haven't caught uh any sort of confirming
move above this. This was previous
resistance at $600, but now since we're
above it, that is near-term minor
support. Bulls want to see this big
rally be held, price hold 600, re-attack
the parallel, get within and then attack
the next resistance at 660 662 and 73
cents.
Next up, another winner in some of these
down days, guys. Look at Tesla on
breakout watch now. We've had a
tremendous move in the last 4 days here
on Tesla. You can see from the bottom to
the top, a nice push of nearly 17%,
but the main thing it did today, it
closed above this declining trendline.
Now, I know I've got a lot of lines here
on this chart. That does help me
navigate near-term price action, much
like you see this declining trendline
holding support, breakout, retest,
bounce, another retest, bounce, another
retest, bounce. Guys, it happens over
and over and over. So, now we're in this
next stage of a potential breakout. What
do we need? We need price tomorrow to
close above today's highs. Notice
there's resistance right there, too. If
we put in a close above today's highs,
that will make any pullbacks, much like
what you've seen right here on this
declining trendline, a buying
opportunity for us to then re-attack 435
and then attack the pivot high over here
on May 13th. So, watch Tesla tomorrow,
see if we get a nice confirming close
for that near-term breakout. Next up,
another stock really pushing up on the
charts, Reddit. Look at this. Now,
Reddit, they are pushing up because they
do have uh uh their AI data licensing
leverage in play, which is really going
to help to boost some of their revenue.
And you can see price broke through not
one, but two longer-term inclining
resistance trendlines with this move.
Incredible push here on Reddit today.
Very nicely done. Notice the second very
inclining trendline came all the way
back here since July 3rd of 2025,
allowed this uh pivot to be created. And
then notice when price has come back up,
we did we almost kissed it, but we
didn't hit it. We just almost kissed and
got rejected mainly with a double layer
of resistance right there. That didn't
matter today as we just barreled right
through it. Next resistance $205.33
followed by the 50% area of this
parallel channel at $215.58.
For bulls though, you want to watch
these trend lines hold. Near term,
$190.48.
This other one just beneath at $188.51.
That ensures this breakout has staying
power. Watch those lower levels to see
and ensure that this isn't just
a quick bull trap breaking out and then
failing. Another stock in the green
today, guys, Palantir. Okay, I hope you
guys are catching the trend here. I'm
bringing you guys a lot of winners when
the SMH is down on the day. This is
money rotation. There was so much drive
into the semis. These 300%, 1,000%
gains, 600% gains. SNDK is literally off
the chart. And there was a lot of people
making this big money. Well, where are
they going to put their money once they
take profits and we start seeing the SMH
show cracks in the ice much like it has
been doing. Well, we're going to rotate
them into other companies that have also
been beaten up because there is the
opportunity for a great rebound plays.
This is how institutions work. This is
how the markets work. The only time the
entire market starts falling is when
everybody sells everything. For right
now, it's rotation. So, we're rotating
into Palantir. Now, Palantir near term
on breakout watch. Look at these last 5
days marching price right back up to
this declining 50% area of this parallel
channel. Now, we didn't close above it
today and in order to close above it
tomorrow, you're going to be looking at
$126.14.
Back that up with another push higher
and then now you've got a confirmed
breakout from this lower range of this
50% area of the parallel making that
dotted line a buying opportunity for any
time price retraces to it. I caution
you, we haven't triggered that breakout
yet, but at least it's on watch for
right now on this chart. Notice this
declining parallel originated back here
from November of 2025.
Now into a loser on the chart, NBIS.
Look at this kerplunk today, down 17%.
We had a nice day yesterday looking like
we were going to get back in the top
50%. What a slip and slide and rug pull
as we are exiting this inclining
parallel channel. Put in one daily close
after hours today putting in some more
selling pressure, now down at 226 and 80
cents. For bears, you want to see price
action tomorrow close beneath this low,
228.17.
That would then confirm a breakdown from
this parallel. Any then retrace back up
is a shorting opportunity. For support,
$219.56
followed by this longer-term inclining
parallel channel just under $200. So I
suppose right around 200 would be a very
good level of support. I dragged this
out further so you can see this other
longer-term parallel originated back
here at the April Liberation Day lows of
2025.
And we broke out of that very nicely,
retested it, and then proceeded to go
higher. Again, guys, look at that
pattern. Look at what happened right
here. Breakout right here, retest, and
then an accelerated move. It happens on
so many charts. That's why I highlight
these breakouts and breakdowns with you
guys so that hopefully you can start
picking up the pieces of the puzzle that
I'm dropping here and start recognizing
that there's some really good
opportunities, one of which that you
guys can take any given time uh with
these proper setups.
The guys, thank you guys so much for
watching today. Don't forget to like and
subscribe to the video. It really helps
us out a lot, so please jam that like
button. Also, send this out to your
friends and family so they too can learn
TA. Guys, all I got to remind you, all
of our educational courses are on sale
up to 40% off through July 12th. Do
yourself a favor, invest in yourself. No
one can take that education away from
you folks. All right, that wraps up
trading in the close. You guys have a
great day. I'll see you guys on the
charts tomorrow. I'll be running uh
Gareth's Game Plan first thing in the
morning and doing Trading the Close in
the afternoon. You got a double dose of
Double D hitting your screens tomorrow.
All right, guys. Take care. Have a great
day and I'll see you then.