Low Volume Market Pivot: Breakout and Breakdown Charts Revealed

[music]
Hello everybody, welcome to trading the
close. My name is Drew Dosk and
everybody in the markets today were
jovial buying the markets but on
extremely light volume. You can almost
anticipate this happening every single
end of quarter and even end of half of
the year. There's window dressing going
on. the high-f flyers were getting a
little bit of a lift boosting the
portfolios for all of those investors
getting ready to report to all of their
customers that they were holding the hot
stocks. So, we did have light volume as
I said and we got a holiday week this
week shortening the week. We won't be
trading on Friday as the markets will be
closed. So, we're in a general float
mode. Jolts came out this morning better
than anticipated which likely secures
rate hikes coming up in September.
That's where the Fed prediction tool is
at least predicting rate hikes
occurring. We even got a 50% chance rate
hikes will happen in July. And again,
the market shouldn't like that yet. We
are at least still pushing up. So, let's
get into the charts and see where we're
going. We got a lot to go over today.
Plus, we've got a viewer request from
Living Linda. Thank you so much for
being a great viewer of ours, Living
Linda. I'll be happy to go over your
charts just here towards the end of our
show. But first, the spiders. Look at
this incredible push. Now, yesterday we
closed the day above that trend line
that was leaning probabilities towards
more upside. Plus, as I said, light
volume today, folks. Look at the volume
just trickling down. We coming through
towards the end of the day today. We've
got several million shares that were put
through, but we're only at 52 million
even at 420 this afternoon. So, it's a
lighter volume day. What gave us a heads
up that we were going to be continuing
to push? mainly guys this candle and I
didn't really talk about it much that
yesterday but I do harp on big candles
right this is one of those big candles
and it was a narrowbody bar right on top
of this inclining trend line narrow body
bars uh highlight indecision I did fac I
did at least highlight that the bulls
and the bears uh basically balance out
here but mainly it closed right here on
that trend line and having that
indecision when we're making new
near-term term lows implies that there
were a lot of buyers waiting to buy the
dip, anything beneath this June 10th
pivot low area. So that propelled us up
at least for now. So for tomorrow, I'll
be watching this declining trend line to
see if price does get rejected here.
That's at $750.31.
Also is the high pivot here from June
22nd. Uh next up into the cues up 1.7%
today, getting ever so close to this gap
fill. Did not get there. tells me if we
do hit it tomorrow, we're likely going
through that gap fill. Great two-day
push. Uh but we're likely going to be
catching resistance once we get back to
double top all-time highs, which would
also correspond with the bottom of this
inclining parallel channel. Amazing to
see that we could be fighting ourselves
out of this because this all was a
downward move. Nice bounce up, but
didn't make new highs. We didn't make
new lower lows either. So now we're
jocking to potentially go up and make
brand new all-time highs on the Q's.
Really fascinating move here. Something
that's going to help guide us in that
respect is the SMH, guys. This, as I've
highlighted many, many times, SMH does
lead the way uh for the markets,
particularly with this AI data center
buildout. Now, look at these two rapid
recovery days right after we confirmed a
breakdown from this inclining trend
line. So today should be resistance and
that's what it was when price finally
got up here to the top uh of the chart
today at 65974.
We kissed that trend line came back ever
so slightly tomorrow in case we don't
gap up over that. Now that's one thing
you should be mindful of if we do have a
rally after hours. Be mindful of this
level tomorrow at the open $665.3.
If we gap over that, generally what that
does is it it alleviates the resistance
in which it would have to have gone
through during market hours to get up
over that trend line. So all that energy
it would have used can then be released
to go up and make brand new all-time
highs. Look how close we're getting to
reaching those all-time highs at 671.83.
Really, really close here on the SMA
should we continue pushing up. Very
remarkable. Let me highlight one other
thing, too. I did touch on the weekly
topping tail that got negated here on
the week of June 15th, but then we back
that up with an engulfing reversal
weekly candle. Both the engulfing
reversal and the weekly topping tail are
very, very bearish signals, particularly
at the top of charts, and we're getting
two of those within four weeks. Yet,
we're rapidly recovering this week. It
really shows you the whipssaw action of
investors exiting then buying and
exiting then buying more on the SMH.
really uh just a feat to behold uh and
admire in this incredible market that
we've had. Uh briefly touching on the
IWM guys, we were up.5% again today, but
look at all the most recent days of
price action testing the topend range of
this inclining parallel channel. This
now puts the IWM up over 20% this year.
That's more than the Q's and more than
the spiders. IWM really lifting off,
doing a great job pushing up. I still
anticipate this level to be resistance
particularly if we continue at a
diagonal angle to attack the top of this
parallel on as of Thursday this week.
That level is at 302 and 7. Next up into
gold. You can see here gold putting in
somewhat of a similar dogee candle that
we were explaining on the S&P 500. All
while making a new low here on gold
telling you that there were buyers
supporting this range at least for now.
The daily closes have all been bearish
consolidation. So that should if it
matures break down a little bit further
with the next support at three or $3,886
near-term resistance to get out of this
bearish consolidation would have to
break both the dotted line which is the
50% area of this declining parallel and
this inclining parallel that you see
generated back here from the liberation
day lows. Uh that level to get through
in the next couple days is going to be
around $4,130.
Next up on silver, putting in similar
price action as gold, except for
elevating up a little bit more. You see
today we didn't make new lows on silver
and I kind of highlighted that fact
yesterday looking at this RSI, how we
were getting higher on the RSI yet still
remaining quite low uh on the chart. So
silver's trying to develop a little bit
of a bounce. If it does, the major
resistance near-term for it would be at
$6145.
I'm still waiting for silver to come
down, at least tag this level of 5509.
if not get down closer to $50 since
we're starting to put in this
consolidation uh for me to pick up some
more physical silver. Uh next up into
oil. Look at the bounce that's generated
on oil, guys. Non-existent. This
dramatic decline uh with some of the
uncertainty in oil, especially in the
Middle East. Would anticipate a little
bit of a bounce up tagging the 7556
level. So far, oil is sticky, hanging
out on this trend line. All while RSI is
beneath 30 on the daily t uh time frame
down at the bottom of the screen. If
this bearish pattern continues, it will
eventually break with the next support
at 6233. That's going to be the major
level. There will be some pausing before
we get down there right when we pierce
$66. Notice how we've got all this
consolidation and pivots and it can
stretch it all the way back out here
back into September of 2025. That should
be an area that likely could generate a
bounce to retest the bottom of that
declining trend line. Next up, uh, Nat
Gas. What can you say about Nat Gas,
guys? It has broken down and confirmed,
but it's really not doing much. It's
really just chopping sideways, retesting
the trend lines in which it broke and
then had a nice down day yesterday, but
then really just traded within
yesterday's range today. Um, it's in
breaking, it's in broke down territory.
That tells me we should be coming down
to 303 before we test this inclining
trend line at $3.37.
We'll see though, NACA is the widowmaker
for a reason. It really can whip in
opposite directions from which you're
anticipating it going, and it can do so
very quickly and rapidly, mainly when we
get closer towards uh the winter months
in the northern hemisphere. Uh next up,
Bitcoin. Guys, look at Bitcoin putting
in a decent down day much like uh oil
putting in bearish consolidation right
on top of a previous pivot in which it
got a bounce on uh right at 59,362.
So, we're now trading underneath that
range. If we do break this bearish
consolidation, we will likely be coming
to the next support at 53,800 followed
by this head and shoulders target at
37,508.
I did promise you guys further
explanation on Bitcoin. So, let me do
that real quick right here while I pull
up this chart. This should give you a
good idea. I do a lot of cycle analysis
here at Verified Investing, folks. Uh,
one of my specialties is determining the
cycles, the ups and downs of different
uh, indices or different charts or
different commodities. Uh, one of which
right here with Bitcoin. And this one is
really neat and interesting. So, I'll
just jump right into it because it's
something that I think is very important
for us over the next three to four
months. All right. So, you can see here
I've got a couple different time frames
highlighted uh the price action here on
Bitcoin. Mainly here on the top end of
the screen, focus here. We've got uh 14
roughly 1400 days when we had a pivot
high top back in December of 17 to
another pivot high top in November of
21. Notice also this here we had a pivot
high top and we had about 1,400 days,
1428 to be exact, before we generated
the next pivot high top and then had
selling pressure. When we had this pivot
high top back here in 2021, it took 371
days before we made a bottom on the
chart and then rallied back up to make
the new all-time high. So now, since
we're coming back down, you can
anticipate roughly 371 days of downward
pressure. If we do get that, that means
the bottom, as long as we repeat the
same thing that happened back here in
Bitcoin in 2021 and 2022, the bottom
should be in by October 12th of 2026.
Will we then push through this head and
should or and get down to this head and
shoulders target at that time?
Uncertain, but I can almost tell you
once we get under $50,000, there's going
to be a boatload of buyers with interest
in Bitcoin. we very well could still
come down and tag that level, but at
least around $50,000, that's likely
where I'm going to start picking up some
more Bitcoin. Uh, next up, guys, we've
got some breakout scenarios and some
potential breakdown scenarios on charts.
First up with Google, notice on Google
when we did put in a daily topping tail
back here on May 18th of this year, that
was the highlight foreshadowing selling
pressure to hit Google. And sure enough,
that's exactly what's happened, creating
this declining parallel when price broke
out and then broke back into this blue
parallel that shaded behind it. So, this
near-term declining parallel is on the
verge of a potential break. You see how
price action tested it today, piercing
ever so slightly this inclining trend
line. Now, tomorrow, we want to see, if
you're bull on Google, you want to see
price get over $35,7.3
and put in a daily close above that. and
you want to see a continuation move,
then that secures that declining trend
line as support. Any pullbacks then
could be bought for a breakout
opportunity to test 36941
and then the top of the parallel again
up here just shy of 400 at $395.
Next up, another chart in breakout mode.
Now, we didn't confirm any breakout here
with Intel, but notice how Intel when we
did have a low here in March of this
year. We pushed up rapidly and then we
started having selling pressure. But if
you look at this, all of this was really
just sideways consolidation. And in
which case, after it got above this
pivot, what did it do? It put in more
consolidation trying to build the
momentum to break out and go higher.
Now, we did have one daily close above
this trend line and parallel just the
other week on June 22nd, but notice we
didn't follow it up with a continuing
move pushing higher. That's what Intel's
missing with this breakout. We want to
see tomorrow, do we push up above the
today's high candle. If we do so, any
pullbacks back down to this parallel to
$13,540
can be a buying opportunity for a
continued breakout scenario on Intel.
Another chart in breakout mode onto
innovation. Look at this. Most recently
from March of this year, onto has been
trading in an inclining parallel channel
and today breached the top. But before
breaching the top, what did we do over
here? Put in bullish consolidation.
Again, I I highlight both the topping
tail on Google, the consolidation on
Intel, and the consolidation on onto
because these things are foreshadowing
us. You can't hide where these prints
occurred on previous days price action.
They're here. They're here for us to
recognize. They're here for us to
interpret. And notice how every time
price when it came back down to the 50%
area of the parallel, price saved
itself. On top of that, they put in
these wicks. All of which should be
hitting ringers in our head saying
bullish consolidation. Price is getting
defended. Looking like we're about to
lift off above the current
consolidation. And that we did. Plus, we
closed above the topend range of this
parallel channel. So for tomorrow, we'll
see if we get a high a higher high than
today and close above that that will
then make any sort of pullbacks to the
top of this parallel a buying
opportunity for further upside. I
caution you though inclining trend lines
uh when price breaks out of them it's
very very hard for price to maintain the
breakout since this trend line is
continually going higher. So that price
needs to continue marching up all the
while it could be overbought near term
and likely will come back down within
that parallel. Just be very mindful of
that. But still incredible breakout
there for on to another one Axon. Now
Axon was in the news recently regarding
President Trump and his investment with
Axon right before they had a deal with
ICE. Regardless of that whole scenario,
I bring this chart to your attention
because of simply that fact that I
highlighted on onto on Intel on Google
stuff is being foreshadowed right here
on these charts. Now you can see we were
mainly in a declining parallel channel
when we did put in the bottom here on
April 10th. What did we do? We put in
bullish consolidation and we did so for
quite a while until this one candle on
May 28th breaking above it cleanly above
that trend line and then continued
marching breaking through this declining
parallel confirming and then what does
price like to do after it breaks out? It
likes to retrace. That was your signal
to buy. We even retraced back down to
the top of this bull flag and then
ripped up higher pushing through this
current resistance at 54758. Now if we
get a daily close above today's candle
tomorrow this level will be support may
be minor support because keep in mind we
are overbought near-term. You could see
that daily 73.28 for whatever reason if
this momentum continues next resistance
612 and 1 cent. Uh last two charts are
for uh living linda. Thank you again for
being a great viewer of ours. I see your
comments nearly daily here, Living
Linda. So, thank you so much. Really
appreciate you uh being a great viewer
of us here at uh Trading the Close. All
right, so into the chart with Wing Stop.
If you guys recall, I don't tell uh this
room that often to buy a stock, but I
did over here because price action on
the RSI and the selling pressure was
just calling me to tell everybody, buy
this stock and Wing Stop. We had a
beautiful pop up there nearly about 50
points on this chart. Since then, we've
came back down, broke the bottom of the
parallel, but have rallied back within.
And I think I covered this again right
around this range. And that's still the
point that I want to highlight. And I'm
going to throw on the simple moving
averages. I'm going to zoom in just a
little. This blue line that you see is
the 50 daily simple moving average. And
this is what I anticipated happening
when price came up to it initially. We
got rejected because if you look back
through here, we were rejected by that
50 moving average all the way down too.
We didn't even touch it. So, this was
going to be a significant beat. So, we
got rejected then rallied back up. And
look what's happening down here. The 20
is getting in its proper spot. The 50 is
getting underneath the 20. And the 20 is
the yellow, by the way. All the while
helping price push up, breaking through
this resistance at $170.91,
putting in a close today above the pivot
high over here on June 15th. This is all
really good stuff. In essence, you could
say this was consolidation. Now, we're
putting in a daily close above this
consolidation, clearing the path for the
next resistance up here at 18575. If we
get any sort of daily slippage closing
back under 170 91, be watching these
moving averages to help provide the
support to continue pushing price back
up. Otherwise, it could be just a failed
breakout attempt. So, just be very
mindful about that over there on that
chart there, Linda. Uh, lastly, Texas
Roadhouse. And guys, I love this
restaurant. Love some stakes. Love the
casual nature of this restaurant. And
guys, we were looking at this on the
weekly time frame, mainly to illustrate
this massive move up in a w in a pennant
pattern. basically bullish consolidation
occurring here up at the top of the
chart. Now, let's get into the daily.
So, you can see that we're struggling to
break above and confirm above this area.
Now, you know, I've seen a lot of charts
do this before where they put in this
consolidation, build the momentum, and
then eventually break out, which will be
fantastic for Texas Roadhouse. This is
the third hit on this declining trend
line. But I've also seen failed breakout
scenarios from consolidation up here at
the top. In which case, I've got the
support level of 178.90 that will be
capable of providing another bounce to
attack that declining trend line. If
we're able to get any sort of confirming
close above this declining trend line,
then we're going to be marching up to
tag the all-time highs at 206. But
really, the battleground is right here
at the moment. Flip over to the daily
RSI. We're overbought near-term. So, we
still need some consolidating because
keep in mind when we break above, we
need to break above and confirm. Then
you get that retest for a breakout,
retest, bounce play up to the all-time
highs. Very interesting chart here on
Texas Roadhouse when a lot of cattle
prices are going up and keeping a lot of
consumers uh you know, choosing other
sorts of meats or something else for
dinner. So, good for Texas Roadhouse
getting up near its all-time highs. All
right, guys. That wraps up trending in
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so much for tuning in. We'll be right
here and see you on the charts tomorrow.
Until then, have a fantastic day, folks.