Yen Intervention Signals New Crisis, Jobs Report Rushed To Keep Market Pump, Trade Levels

My name [music] is Gareth Soloway and I
was a losing trader until I mastered
technical analysis. Logic and charts
beat hype and narratives every time. Now
I teach investors the same techniques
that made me a multi-millionaire.
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This is my trading game plan.
Good morning everybody. Welcome to my
trading game plan. My name is Gareth
Soloway, chief market strategist here at
verifiedinvesting.com.
So, we do have some big things going on
even though this is a shortened holiday
week with the stock market here in the
US closed on Friday. Yesterday we saw
the markets rallying back after kind of
the big sell-off in the AI trade. We saw
early in the day a big flush in Micron,
SanDisk, and many other names, but they
did recover by the end of the day.
Micron ending basically flat to
positive, SanDisk for instance flat to
negative. Now, the kicker is this. We
know institutions go on holiday. My
guess is yesterday morning the massive
sell-off was institutions getting their
positions in order for the weekend, for
the holiday weekend, and really you'll
look at that and say, "Okay, chances are
until next week not a major thing
happens." All right, we'll look at that
in just a second. The other thing I want
to point out is the jobs report. Now,
usually it's on Friday morning, the
first Friday of the new month.
This is interesting. We're seeing it
rushed to market on Thursday morning,
and that tells us something. What do we
know about President Trump? He will only
do things if it's beneficial to the
market or if it's going to make him and
the economy look good. So, by he has two
choices. One is delay it and say, "Oh
well, Friday the markets are closed, so
we'll release it next week on next
Friday." Or he's taking this path of
rushing it out Thursday morning before
the holiday weekend. So, what do you
think? Is it going to be good news or
bad news? I think we know the answer to
that. Now, just because it's good news
and a better jobs report than expected
doesn't mean it's going to have a great
impact on the markets, right? Because
remember, good jobs data could push
interest rates up and force the Federal
Reserve to potentially hike rates,
although I don't think they'll do that.
But, just keep in mind the fact that
that jobs report's coming out Thursday
morning, chances are it's good news. All
right, let's get into the charts here
and take a look. The S&P futures closing
yesterday right here. Uh we see
basically a flatish open. We were
trading up a little bit in the
pre-market, but have come back in to the
flat line. Now, again, like I said,
remember, institutional money, they
generally take most of the week off. So,
in general, I would think neutralish
market, maybe a float market over the
next couple days, but nothing major, no
major swings. Um even with today being
the last day of the quarter. Maybe
there's a little window dressing going
on there, but for the most part, my
guess is quiet action. Now, let's go to
the bigger time frame. The S&P 500. Here
we are. So, here's our bigger parallel
that we continue to watch. And the
reason why this is so important, folks,
going back to the COVID lows, the highs
of the bull market here in 2021, the
bear market lows, the collapse in 2025
on the tariff sell-off, and then this
high here in 2025, late into 2026, is
because I'm very curious. Not only do we
have lower lows forming here, all right,
but we might have a lower high, and if
we break back inside of this parallel
channel, that's what we call in
technical analysis a failed breakout.
And failed breakouts, you might say,
"Okay, well, it was a failed breakout."
But, historically, failed breakouts
create the biggest moves in the opposite
direction. So, if a breakout fails,
there's a lot of money that piled in on
that breakout that then exits the market
and it can create a big sell-off there.
So, I'm watching this intently on the
S&P 500. Really, what we're looking at
is do we close below 7250? If we close
below 7250, then I think we're going to
see a very quick drop all the way to
these highs from 2025 into 2026 January
at around 7,000. That would be about a
250-point down down move in the S&P 500.
Now, what are some of the catalysts for
this? Well, we obviously know that the
AI trade is looking more and more like
it is unwinding. For instance, we got a
reversal engulfing candle on the weekly
chart of the SOX, which is the ETF. Now,
reversal engulfing candles here, that
means the prior week, this was your
prior week, and you could see here you
had your high, which is a little wick,
and your tail, which is the low. And
then, a reversal engulfing candle must
open above the prior week's high, which
it did, and close below the prior week's
low. This candle formation in the charts
is more powerful than a topping tail.
Now, listen, just because it's more
powerful doesn't guarantee it works out.
There's no such thing as guarantees in
the stock market or in anything, really,
except maybe death and taxes, as they
say. But, the point is again, these
reversal signals do have teeth a
majority of the time, and we're already
starting to see it in names like Nvidia,
as we've talked about, right? Nvidia on
the daily chart, you can see it's
already significantly off of its recent
highs, and it's testing a potential
confirmation of a breakdown of this
technical support. We've looked at
Broadcom's chart and many others, and
even something like a Micron, which had
these great earnings last Wednesday
after the close and was up 14% on
Thursday. As of yesterday's lows, we had
given back everything from those
earnings. Now, it did get a bounce back
into the end of the day, but still that
move often times marks a high. And by
the way, remember a famous company that
reported earnings and shot higher
dramatically and then that was the top
on the stock and it's collapsed over
50%.
You guys might be thinking of what I'm
thinking. Do you guys remember Oracle?
Oracle, right? This was the gap up on
earnings on Oracle in back in September
of 2025 and it was literally the top as
the stock came in. And by the way,
I'm seeing more and more talk about
memory alternatives. Now, you might say,
"Well, what memory alternatives?" Well,
believe it or not, Apple is in
negotiations with buying memory from a
China company that is actually
technically banned, but they're trying
to negotiate with the administration to
get a pass to buy memory from these
other places. And so again, keep in
mind,
memory semiconductors, they are
cyclical. You may say this time is
different, that's okay. I understand
that. I've heard that so many times in
my career, it's never honestly been this
time is different. But, if you want to
go with that, that's fine, but just be
very, very careful here as again, things
like Micron mirror the Oracle top and
also the technical negative divergences
are very, very powerful right now. All
right, so let's go into a couple other
things. Another risk for the market is
this chart, the dollar yen. The dollar
yen, look at this, what is going on
here? If we look at this chart and we
zoom out, we have a potential breakout
on the dollar yen. What is this telling
us? It is telling us that the yen is
weakening significantly more and
basically the dollar is breaking
stronger against the yen. Now, you may
say, "Well, who cares about that?" Well,
there's trillions of dollars reliant on
the yen carry trade, right? So, we have
that aspect. In addition, my sources are
now telling me that the Japanese Central
Bank and the government are now looking
at intervention with the US coordination
to try to stem this because it has a
history of causing freak outs in the
market. Good example of this, in July
and August of 2024,
the Nasdaq declined 15% in just a few
weeks when the yen pushed up like this,
or I should say the dollar yen pushed up
like this, the weakening dollar, and
then they intervened, and they brought
it back down, and that saved the day and
allowed the bull market to continue. So,
there is a history, and we're breaking
above that high of issues related to the
yen weakening significantly against the
US dollar, and that's what this dollar
yen chart is showing. So, keep it on
your radar over the next couple weeks.
Let's number one, see do we get
intervention? And number two, do we see
any market blips on the screen? Now,
before we get into other charts, I do
want to just remind you that right now
we're running our July 4th holiday sale
on courses, 40% off every course out
there, folks, on our website. Go grab
them while they're hot. This will only
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one of those times. If you have a course
that you've been looking at on
verifiedinvesting.com, and you're
saying, "Man, I really want to learn
that, or I want to improve." I launched,
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is all about getting your your emotions
under control. Go check it out. Pick one
of those up, guys. They will change your
financial future, in my humble opinion,
as again, they change the the you view
the markets. You get much more
analytical and make decisions based off
logic and probability versus just hopes
and dreams. Hopes and dreams are great,
don't get me wrong, but they don't help
you in the market very often. All right,
let's continue on here. We have the AVAV
pop today. This is Aero in
Aerovironment. This is a drone company
reporting earnings yesterday after the
bell, big pop, already coming back in on
the chart. What's interesting about this
one is it is very very low. If you look
at this, this was a 400 plus dollar
stock back in October of 2025.
It bottomed out going into earnings at
135 140 dollars. So, it's getting a
bounce. If you had to say, well, which
way would this go? Yeah, you would say,
all right, it's due for a technical
bounce and it is getting that bounce as
well. Now, what about a trade? Is there
any trade here? This is a tough one
because it's already beaten down even
with this bounce here. Look, it's only
coming back to this area. So, if I'm
going to look to short a big pop, I need
a very overbought scenario. I don't have
it on this chart. The only level I would
kind of look at would be right up here
around 218. If for some reason it spikes
up there as a day trade only, I would be
interested. Other than that, I think we
all know that the new form of warfare is
drone warfare. And so, generally on
pullbacks, I'd be more interested in
going long as a swing trade or
investment on something like AVAV. As
again, we've clearly seen it in Ukraine
and even in the Iran-US conflict, drones
are cheap compared to missiles and they
work. And so, that's the future, folks.
Drone warfare is likely the future,
especially once AI is in the mix and
doing everything like that. All right,
SpaceX yesterday did have a pop.
Remember, it it's getting added to the
NASDAQ 100, but today it is coming back
in. This performance is atrocious,
right? Now, listen, it's still above the
IPO price that insiders got it at, but
again, you know, it opened here at 150,
it traded as high as 225, and it's
trading right now in the pre-market at
161. What you're watching here, folks,
and this is going to be very important.
Notice on the charts, I'll zoom in, how
the low of that first trading day has
become technical support. If this line
at 149 150 gives way and we get a daily
close below this, I bet this goes back
to $135,
which is that IPO price. All right, at
that price you will see the institutions
try to support it because again, any
institution that was involved in this
has a reputation, and they have to
protect that reputation, and so they
will do their best to support it at $135
because it looks really bad when
insiders end up being down on the
position. Right? I mean, it's one thing,
and listen, when retail, right? They
don't care as much about retail because
retail isn't paying their bills, right?
When a company goes public, you hire
these book runners, right? These
institutionals, BlackRock, Goldman,
Morgan Stanley, and you pay them
literally, a company like SpaceX paying
them a billion dollars to bring them
public, you better get results. And the
idea is that you don't want it to go
below that IPO oh value. So, with Open
AI, it's still potentially, I mean,
again, it looks like they're going to
extend out till 2027, but maybe
Anthropic, Perplexity, these other ones,
very important that holds up. Oracle
remains on my radar, guys. Oracle again
is at a very important trend line
support. We talked about this per the
big drop from the high on earnings, but
on a technical basis, this is a really
important technical level now for
Oracle. Basically, the 145 level. If it
starts breaking 145, watch out, you're
headed down to 135. If that breaks,
you're going down to $120
a share. And again, very important. Now,
listen, until this level breaks, it it's
technically a buy as long as a tight
stop is initiated, which would be a
break of that trend line cuz you're at
support. It's just the question is can
the support hold? Let's move on to gold
here. Gold initially overnight flushing
close to 3,900 making a new short-term
low, but has come back and is now flat
to positive on the day. This is still
technical support on gold, so have to
see if it continues to hold. If this
breaks, 3,500 is your next target. If we
can hold this, we should test this upper
trend line around 4,300 and then we
start watching for a breakout. I
continue to really be bullish on gold
mid to long-term. The question is which
way is the wedge in the short-term going
to break? If it breaks lower, I'm a
buyer. Put it to you that way. I do
think again gold is especially I'm not a
buyer of the Kevin Warsh hawkish
scenario. Um the president would have
never appointed him if he was going to
be a steadfast hawk. So, my guess is his
first pref- press conference was the
hey, I've got to show that I'm
independent and I'm hawkish and and
show, you know, the markets that we're
going to be,
you know, stringent on inflation. But
all in all, I don't expect rate hikes
this year even though the market's
pricing it in and I don't expect
anything next year except cuts. I do
think we see cuts next year in interest
rates. Will that be bullish for the
market?
Historically it is as long as the
economy is strong. If the economy is
weakening, then that's when, believe it
or not, historically the markets sell
off on Fed rate cuts. All right, silver
just going sideways. This looks right
now to be a bear flag formation, so keep
that in mind. Downside support 54 and
then $50 on silver. Oil today, you can
see here that's my monthly chart on oil.
Oil is catching a little bit of a bid
here. We talked about how this was
support. I even said that I was long on
oil in the near term with smart money
commodity members at
verifiedinvesting.com.
So again, right now that is holding. I
still think we could go as low as here,
but really again with strategic reserves
being needed to be refilled, it's
unlikely we're going to see a move below
67 on crude oil in the near term. If the
economy weakens, of course, then then
oil goes much much much lower. But in
the near term, likely 67's a low pivot
with upside potential. Looking at this
chart here, this is natural gas. Had a
little bit of a dump yesterday, right
back up. We just continue to be in this
same pattern. I'm glad I haven't
committed any capital because really
nothing's happened now for multiple
weeks. I still think at some point we're
going to get a break one way or the
other. I would slightly lean bullish
because of the cup and handle pattern,
but I don't have enough factors to
warrant a long position for me. Lastly,
let's look at Bitcoin. Bitcoin is not
looking good today, guys. Bitcoin now
down $1,700 to 58,400.
If If we get a daily close below this
trend line and then it confirms
tomorrow, you're probably headed to 53
and then 50,000 on Bitcoin. So again,
all we have to watch where this candle
goes today, right? So this is really
important right here. Right now it's
below the line. The line is around
58,800.
So that would kind of be the line in the
sand. Do we close above or below that
line? But again, something to keep a
radar on on your radar here for today as
Bitcoin really just can't get out of its
own way, folks. I mean, yes, it had some
bounces along the way, but again, the
bias continues to be weakness until
proven otherwise. Every bounce is either
a bear flag or a short-term little blip,
and then we've seen lower lows. All
right? On that note, I've got to get to
my trading room, the live day trading
room. Remember, we have daily passes. So
if you're off for July 4th, come in.
Obviously markets are closed on Friday,
but Monday through till or yesterday
through Thursday we'll be in there
trading and then obviously next week. We
have weekly passes as well and of course
monthly. I'll see you in there. We
rocked it recently over 10,000 in
profits yesterday. Take care. Have a
great rest of your day. Take