Alert: Semi's Have Topped, Micron Dumps, Margins Peaked...Epic Analysis And Chart Insights

This week's trades, market movers, and
technical levels [music] that count,
wrapped up with clarity and precision.
This is weekly wrap-up with Verified
Investing.
>> Hey folks, welcome to the weekly
wrap-up. My name is Gareth Soloway,
chief market strategist here at
verifiedinvesting.com,
and we are about to deep dive into the
market action today. So, listen, we
opened lower, we closed lower. S&P
outperformed the Nasdaq. Why? Because
the tech trade, specifically the
semiconductor AI trade, had a big down
day. And now, this is surprising a lot
of people because yesterday we had
Micron earnings, but the signals I've
been warning just the last few days,
even before Micron, there were cracks in
the glass, right? We saw other stocks
starting to come out with competing
chips, like IBM. This
less than a nanometer chip competing
with Nvidia and competing with Broadcom.
Broadcom, remember, recently had
earnings and they didn't raise guidance.
Now, listen, Micron's earnings were very
good, but it still sold off and giving
back half of what it gained yesterday on
earnings. Why? Because the market and
smart money is saying this is peak
euphoria and peak margins. Again, it's
basically saying the market's looking at
the forward 6 to 12 months and they say
it's not going to get any better than
this. So, you have profit taking coming
in. Today, again guys, we look at the
Nasdaq chart here, we opened lower on
the Nasdaq, had this beautiful rally, we
tried to go green a couple times on the
Nasdaq 100, but by the end of the day,
it closed sharply lower. The daily chart
on the Nasdaq down 1.4%.
Now, contrast that with the S&P 500,
which was barely negative on the day.
And again, this is simply put, the tech
trade, specifically, and I mean
specifically, the AI trade was down
huge, but other stocks like Microsoft
had a big bounce today. Amazon big
bounce today. Meta bounced today.
Anything that has been hammered lately
saw money rotation into those names, and
that helped again keep the S&P up. And
to some extent, let's be fair, it even
kept the Nasdaq 100 from having a much
bigger drop. Now, let's dive into the
charts. This is important, guys. So,
what we're looking at is another retest
of the major former parallel on the S&P
500. Now, usually in these videos I go
into, "Okay, we have our lower low, we
know that. We have our high. Is this a
lower high?" If that's the case, then
what does it tell us? It tells us
there's a market top. But, we have to
take it a step further today. We have to
use our parallel trend line drawing
tool, and you could see I already kind
of annotated it over here what I worry
is going to happen. But, let's draw it
in here. So, what we're going to do is
we're going to take a trend line going
back to Well, basically, I think we can
take it all the way back here, and we're
going to just draw it up from those lows
to the recent highs. No, check that.
That's the wrong one. What we're going
to do is this one right here. Now, if we
use this, we can drag this up, and we
can see that again we came above this
level right up here on the S&P 500, but
again it's already failed and come back
in. And again, you could see how we're
connecting our low from basically the
bear market of 2022 into 2023 to this
pure slow, which was the panic sell-off
of tariffs, to that low there, and then
look at the high pivot to high pivot,
and you could see we peaked above it,
failed, got above it again, tried again,
failed, got above it one last time, and
what we know is three peaks to a valley.
Three peaks to a valley essentially
shows us that when you have
subsequential subsequential peaks,
that's when you get your bigger
drawdown. One peak, two peaks, three
peaks, and there's your drawdown. Now,
listen, there's a bunch of other factors
on the chart that we can discuss, but
essentially, this is what I'm talking
about. When you fail a breakout to the
upside, it opens the door once you're
back below that parallel to a much
bigger fall to the downside. And by the
way, this is the one I believe that I
was looking for right here. This is
really the behemoth of them all. Look at
that trend line right there. Let me put
it in again. If we put that in and we
stretch right up to these lows here and
we bring it here, look at where we are
at this point. We are dangling just on
top of this area right here. And this is
the next phase of a breakdown in the
market. So, next week, if we make a
lower low and we take this back out and
we get inside of here, I honestly think
that within 6 to 12 months, we're likely
all the way back down in this range. And
again, this would be a failed breakout
right there. And remember the old adage
in technical analysis, in trading, and
I've been on Wall Street and amongst all
of these firms and and such, it's that
the biggest moves come from failed
moves. Meaning that when you have a
breakout, it's like, yes, it's a
breakout. Here we go. This market's
unstoppable. When it fails, meaning it
gets back below that line, it opens the
door to essentially, oh my goodness, the
breakout failed. Everyone starts selling
and it can turn into a much bigger fall.
So, there's some risks here. Now,
listen, we haven't broken down below
this one currently at this point. We'll
have to continue to watch. It's right
here on the S&P 500. We got to watch
this next week. If we do break down,
then we have our confirmed lower highs
and lower lows and a failed breakout of
the parallel. And again, notice high
pivot. Right here, we broke out above,
tested, bounced, and now we're
borderline testing it again. That's the
level I am watching. All right. So,
suffice it to say we're coming into next
week. Next week is the pre-July 4th
week. Markets will be closed next Friday
in observance of July 4th on Saturday
here in the US. So, it's very likely to
be somewhat of a a slower week. A lot of
institutional money is probably going to
be kind of taking off early for the week
to go spend time in the Hamptons,
wherever they want to spend time. And
so, it'll be interesting to see whether
or not we ultimately
Do we see that selling pressure next
week or does it get postponed until
after the holiday? And again, for me, I
will update you guys. You guys know 9:00
a.m. Eastern Time Monday through Friday,
I've got your back with the game plan
covering every move in this market. Now,
before we go on, guys, one other thing,
we have our 40% off every course here at
Verified Investing. You can scan the QR
code or just go to verifiedinvesting.com
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missing out, and that's the key. So,
check those out, guys, on our website.
We'll go from there. Let's get back to
the charts. The dollar today continues
to show a little bit of weakness. We
don't know yet, though. All right. When
I look at this chart, I say, "Okay.
Number one, strong move up, tested the
highest point on this long-term
resistance support level, right? This
zone right through here. You can see
back here it was resistance, here it was
support, right? So, here we are testing
it. Now, what I'm watching is do we have
a shallow pullback and then a breakout
in which case game on or does it come
back in and get rejected again like all
of these other times down here. Now, the
reason this is important, this plays
into a lot of things. Number one,
corporate earnings. The stronger the
dollar because the US company sell so
much overseas, a strong US dollar can
actually bring down earnings. That's a
negative for at least the company.
Listen, I love a strong dollar. It means
that your your dollar, my dollar, they
go further in the world, they can buy
more. But, corporate America, they don't
like a strong dollar. They want a weak
dollar. So, that's something to watch.
We also want to watch here ultimately
how it impacts gold and silver, right?
We'll go to the gold and silver charts
very soon, but there's no doubt that
even though gold and silver have been in
freefall quite a bit, the strong dollar
has helped push that in that direction.
I think part of it is deleveraging, kind
of getting rid of the weak money that
had bought in because they thought it
was an easy get-rich-quick type trade.
Um but also it's the fact that the
dollar has got gained strength, right?
In the course of the last month or so.
10-year yield today continues to move
lower.
Again, nothing new here. Um I am
watching the 10-year yield mainly
because the bond market is known to be
the smartest market of them all. It's
generally big institutional money
involved in the bond market. And so, if
we are going to see a slowdown in the US
economy, the bond market will be the one
that tells us, meaning rates will start
to come down more. And if rates come
down more, but oil's not falling, that
would tell me again that there's
something more that's going on that the
smart money knows about the US economy.
So, I watch that like a hawk on a daily,
weekly, monthly basis. All right, back
to the charts here. Today, take a look
Micron getting pounded down almost 7% on
the day after it was up about 14%
yesterday. Listen, still a tremendous
move on earnings yesterday made a new
all-time high. This is what we actually
call kind of like a a little bit of a uh
hanging man type situation on a candle.
It's neither here nor there, but
ultimately a big pullback today, you
have to say, did the euphoria of Micron
earnings get retail to be extremely
bullish? Cuz I saw comments when the
earnings came out from retail. It was
like it was like they just won the
lottery.
And I see that and historically that has
been more of a sell indicator than a buy
indicator. So, just little things to
ponder here. Did they kind of get you in
that last leg? And again, what we have
to take note of is
the shiny
you know, you walk into a room and it's
like, oh, look at that shiny coin or
that shiny chandelier, right? But then
you look around the room and you say,
now it's kind of dirty over there, it's
musty over there, dusty over there, oh,
there's a there's a crack in this over
there. That's what the the semiconductor
sector was. So, what I mean is
Micron was the shiny chandelier, but
when you looked yesterday at all these
other stocks, Nvidia, Broadcom, Arm,
Marvell um Technologies, they were all
down.
And that's telling you something, right?
That's telling you something is going on
here that's bigger than just, oh, the
shiny chandelier in the room. All right,
keep that in mind, guys. I don't want
you guys to get fooled. Again, I was I
called the top on silver, I called the
top on oil, and again, the same things
are going on. I see the same comments
about Micron, about the semis, about the
market never going down that I always
see at tops on everything. I've learned
it. It's not always right, but it's a
good indicator. And here's your Broadcom
chart. Broadcom bear flag breakdown. So,
we've started to break down here. You
can see here's your bear flag and now
we're starting to break down. You have
your support first here around 350.
That's your first technical support.
Nvidia today did close lower below key
support as well. This now is likely
headed down to about 186, that next
technical support level.
We can go to Arm Holdings. Arm was down
yesterday, down again today. This still
has this pivot low, which is around 300.
That'll be first technical support. So,
that'll be something to watch there. And
MRVL also down today, same thing.
There's a glaring gap fill at 219 to
220. That's likely headed there. And by
the way, even SanDisk, SanDisk, which
was up 20% yesterday on the excitement
over memory,
today down half of that, 10%. Just like
that. As if it didn't even happen
yesterday, it's erasing that. And by the
way, I'll just point this out. When we
talk about higher highs and higher lows,
this was a higher high right here
than right here. So, you have a high,
lower high, low.
If we come down here and make a lower
low,
game on. The top is in. At least a core
unless unless price gets above it and
negates it. And these are those little
little tactics that we can use. Look at
STX. STX yesterday gapped up on
excitement over memory and storage. This
is what they do.
To a $1,115.
Today it closed at $899. It's trading $6
lower after hours already. One of the
things I'm watching on this stock,
there's a classic trend line right here.
See this trend line right here?
Look at that. If this breaks, it's going
all the way back to $578
down there on STX. WDC was no different.
Got absolutely annihilated today, down
another 13%.
This stock just a week ago was at $800.
It's now below 600. And And again, this
is what I'm talking about here is that
when you have stocks that go parabolic
and they go up two, three, 400% in a
matter of a few months,
corrections in days can be 20, 30% in
weeks or months, it can correct 50%. And
ultimately when the cycle, and this is
cyclical. I know people say this time is
different. I've seen it way too many
times to believe in that, folks. It's
never different. It just isn't. Human
nature, we we tend to repeat everything.
But the point is is that in 2021, the
shiniest chandelier was Tesla. When it
dropped in 2022, went down 75%.
Amazon or Cisco in dot com dropped 85%.
Same thing's going to happen. Now
listen, it will take 6, 12 months before
these things do it, but it'll happen.
It'll happen. At least according to
probability, very high probability
there. Microsoft today was a winner.
Folks, great pop on Microsoft today, up
almost 6%. Now listen, it was oversold,
but a lot of this was that money was
flowing out of Microsoft into these AI
names. Well, guess what? Now you have a
reversion trade. So stocks like
Microsoft and Amazon getting bounces
today, Meta also getting a bounce. These
names have been going down. They caught
a bid today in a money rotation of
capital. Okay? Now Apple, we'll take a
look at Apple today. Apple got a big
bounce, but Apple's in trouble here. On
a technical basis, Apple's in trouble.
Why? Well, number one, look at this bear
flag. This told you it was going to
break down. This is a classic, almost
perfect bear flag formation. Sharp drop,
inside bar. It gapped below support.
Great bounce today. Nothing to take away
from it. That's a great rotation of
capital into Apple. But unless it can
regain and have a daily close back above
289, the odds strongly favor more
downside in Apple. And even Tesla, by
the way, Tesla had a good little bounce
today. It missed my technical buy level
for a day trade by just a few dollars,
365. I talked about it in the game plan
today. Missed it just by a little bit,
but either way got a bid today. Now,
listen, we're going to go into gold and
silver next, but we'll also talk about
Bitcoin as well as oil and natural gas.
Let's start out with gold here.
Gold did see a little bit of a bounce
today. Now, listen, you fell you fell
about 4 to 500 dollars here, right? From
4,400 down to in the 3,900 range. So, a
bounce is appropriate. Plus, I had given
you guys this trend line right here to
expect a bounce. Look, every time it
hits, it bounces. So, makes a lot of
sense that that's going to be a level to
bounce. What we as investors need to
monitor is do we go up here? Do we go
like this? Which way does it break? Does
it break up or does it break down? If it
breaks up, you'll have a lot of
resistance pullbacks along the way, but
I actually think that would be the
beginning of a bigger move back towards
all-time highs, maybe in 2027, 2028. But
ultimately, if it breaks down,
then this is that target around 3,500 to
3,600. So, I'm watching again like a
hawk to see which way this goes. Silver,
this is a little tougher chart, guys.
Listen, at least gold, I look at that
chart and I say, "Okay, it's in a wedge.
Maybe it can do it." And I guess you can
make a case for maybe a wedge here on
silver as well. But the issue is the $64
level. It hammered on 64 multiple times
and finally broke down. What does that
mean? It means that 64 was support. Now
it becomes massive resistance. So, for
me to even think bullishly on silver
again, I need to see it break back above
64. You can see it hit it here. It hit
it here, and then it hit it here, and
there's your breakdown, which means this
is going to be resistance on silver. So,
right now, my key level, $54, hasn't
quite been tagged yet. And then below
that, the 50-ish even number. That will
be the spot. Oil,
small drop today. Really, again, you can
see the gap window and gap fill as major
support. I continue, you know,
I'm I'm slightly small position long oil
here because I think there's minimal
downside and I'll add it 67, which is
the gap fill. But the idea here is just
simple is that strategic reserves have
to be filled. Again, there's a ton of
buying from countries that are going to
do that. So it's very unlikely without a
recession that oil goes much below 67.
Now, if we get into a recession like I
think later this year into 2027, okay,
then oil goes down to 50, maybe even sub
50. But without that, we're probably
closer to a low at this point on oil and
based on charting, that's what the gap
fill would tell us. You fill the gap,
you're supposed to bounce. When the gap
gets filled to the downside, you're
supposed to get a technical bounce. So
again, here's your gap right here. We
get down to 67, technical analysis would
tell us we would get a bounce. My guess
is we would go back here. I don't really
think Listen, I I don't think we're
going back to $100. I really do not. I
don't even know if we're you know, at
least not in the near near future we're
going back to 100. Um but again, back to
80? Yeah, I actually think that's very
likely. We'll see a bounce back to 80. I
also think that the negotiations with
Iran probably will not just magically go
smoothly the whole time. There's going
to be rage tweets and all this other
stuff that'll kind of, you know, worry
the market just a little bit. We even
saw some of that yesterday with the
Iranians firing on a vessel apparently
or something like that. Natural gas
continues to just consolidate. This The
tighter this gets, at some point we're
going to get a break, right? It's either
going to be a breakout or a breakdown. I
think whichever way it breaks, you're
either going back all the way down to
268 or if we break out, we could
literally be looking at, you know,
minimum 380 on this or maybe even 430.
So I'm watching this closely. It is kind
of a cup and handle pattern, which is a
bullish pattern. I will, of course, keep
you guys in the loop on that. And then
lastly, Bitcoin, guys. Bitcoin continues
to struggle around this 59 to 60,000
level.
Um you know, it's one of those scenarios
where
the chart is struggling to hold on to
support.
So, that makes me very tentative about
Bitcoin, right? And you guys know I've
said eventually it's going down to 50,
maybe even sub sub 50. But, I will say
this is that sentiment is so bad. It's
the It's literally the opposite of where
sentiment for AI was over the last few
days. Sentiment for AI was extreme
bullish, like ridiculous, like, "Oh my
goodness, these are these all are going
to the moon." Well, right now the
sentiment is Bitcoin's going to zero. Um
it's usually somewhere in between. When
sentiment gets that bad, I start paying
closer attention to factors in the
charts, RSI divergences, you know, key
pivot points. Do we get back above?
Because sometimes when you get the
reversals, they can be rip-your-face-off
rallies, as the as the jargon goes.
That's what we say in the markets. It's
like when you're in a bear market and
you bounce, sometimes it can be a
tremendous sharp bounce. Again, I don't
know yet. I'm monitoring it, but the way
the sentiment is on Bitcoin, it does say
it's getting a little too extreme
bearish, and it starts having me at
least pay attention here. Watch closer.
All right. Thank you guys for tuning in.
Your support means the world to us here
at Verified Investing, this more
technical, logic-based approach. I
figure again, you want nonsense, you go
to social media. Hype, they'll hype you
up, they'll say something's going to a
zillion, they'll say it's going to zero.
But, the charts at least give us a
reality check. And if we look at them
objectively, we can get the odds in our
favor. Never 100% right. I certainly am
not. I've had my fair share of bad
calls, but at least I can say I'm right
more than I'm wrong. And I don't chase
and become the fodder or the exit
liquidity. And just like at the bottoms,
I don't panic and dump at the lows
because I follow the charts. All right,
you guys go have a wonderful weekend.
I'll see you bright and early on Monday
morning. Thank you so much. Take care.