OpenAI Backs Off, AI Stocks Drop, Bitcoin Panic, Gold Buy? Top Trades And Levels

My name is Gareth Soloway and I was a
losing trader until I mastered technical
analysis. Logic and charts beat [music]
hypes and narratives every time. Now I
teach investors the same techniques that
made me a multi-millionaire. [music]
This is my trading game plan.
Hey everybody, welcome to my trading
game plan. My name of course Gareth
Soloway, chief market strategist here at
verifiedinvesting.com.
Now, the markets yesterday, we ran
initially on Micron earnings and it
didn't hold and that's a big signal for
investors to be very aware of. Before we
get into the deep deep deep dive here on
this trading game plan, I do want to
mention that we do have a July 4th
course sale, 40% off every course on
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trader series, which is my course, 20
hours in length approximately, and
literally covers every nuance of my
methodology that I created over the last
27 years. So again, folks, check it out.
Go to verified investing under courses.
Every course is 40% off. Check it out
and again, take your financial future
into your own hands. All right, let's
get right into the charts here. So we
saw Micron yesterday not holding the
markets up. The Nasdaq closed slightly
positive overall, but the S&P was flat
to negative. Taking a look today, we are
right back to the selling action. This
was yesterday. We opened sharply higher,
big sell-off, big bounce, and then we
kind of chopped into the end of the day.
Overnight, the AI stocks, the
semiconductors began to sell again. And
even Micron is coming back in. Take a
look at Micron here. Look at this
trading down at 11:31
after yesterday's move. If we go to the
intraday chart, this is your pre-market,
right? So yesterday you had this big
open higher near at $1,250
on Micron. It then sold off sharply down
to 11:35
or so, and look at where we are. This is
very very important on a technical
analysis basis. If this low gives way
today during market hours, and we might
even be setting up to open below it,
that would trigger a sell signal on
Micron. And I think it's so intriguing
here to understand that when Micron came
out with earnings,
everyone jumped on the bandwagon to the
nth degree of bull
in terms of the market and in terms of
the AI trade. Yet, what I saw yesterday
was that only the memory stocks,
SanDisk, Micron, were doing well. The
rest of it, I mean, Marvell technology
is down, Nvidia down, Broadcom down.
That is telling you something. I've been
talking about this for days and days,
and people are always misbelievers or
unbelievers in this respect. But, when
you start looking at the breadcrumbs,
when IBM comes out with a new chip, when
you have competition for AI chips from
Arm Holdings, from Intel, from Nvidia,
from Broadcom, from Taiwan Semi, now
from IBM, and more and more companies,
it's going to drive margins down. Now,
institutional money wants you to buy
into the excitement of Micron earnings
because it gets you to put your money in
the market and then ultimately become
exit liquidity. And think about that.
And look at SpaceX. I mean, SpaceX is a
great example of exit liquidity. I mean,
SpaceX today is now trading below $150.
Literally down here, everyone that
bought once it went public is
essentially down on this trade. And by
the way, CBRS,
this is a semi conductor AI play. It is
now below even where the insiders got it
in terms of price. And so, insiders got
it at $185. It opened around $350.
It is now at 163.
And this leads me to the next point.
OpenAI has announced that they are no
longer looking to go public this year.
Why? What's their reason? Because the
market conditions are not conducive to
it. So again, that tells you everything
you need to know here is that liquidity
is drying up. People don't have enough
money to absorb these massive IPOs. And
remember, I talked about it just
yesterday, SK Hynix, which is the basic
exact replica of Micron out of out of
South Korea, they are bringing $29
billion on July 10th to sell to the open
market here in the US. And so this
continues this flood of liquidity, but
now, or at least at least shares to suck
up liquidity, but now we're seeing
OpenAI admit that it's not the right
time. And that tells you again that we
are on the verge of a bigger correction
in the semiconductor sector. And just
the fact that Micron earnings didn't
lift the markets, only Micron and a
couple memory names, that tells you
everything as well. All right. So we
have the S&P futures lower today
starting into the open. The Nasdaq
futures are really taking a beating
here. If we take a look at this, let me
just go to the futures here if we have
them. We could go to the futures right
there. There we go, the E-minis. The
Nasdaq futures, look at this, guys.
Where are we trading? We're trading
right at yesterday during market hours
lows just like we see it with Micron. If
this breaks during market hours, takes
out yesterday's low, that is trouble for
the Nasdaq. And remember, we are
continually on watch on the daily S&P
chart for confirmation of a lower high.
Okay? We have the lower lows already. If
you've been watching me on a daily
basis, you know this already. There's
your lower low, V bottom, V bottom. So
it's confirmed, right? Now what we're
looking for is do we get the the
mountain top high? We have this one is a
high, that's a high, and this one if we
come down here to these lows, it then
becomes a secondary lower high. Once you
have lower lows and lower highs, it's
done. And I don't mean done like we're
crashing. I mean, we're not going to
crash. There's way too many buy the
dippers out there that are lurking to
buy pullbacks, but then you can say
until proven otherwise, the market has a
high. Just It's just simple math. I
mean, this is simple probability. And
just to give you guys examples on this,
look at Meta.
All right, if we go back on Meta to when
Meta topped back in August of 2025, look
at the structure, right? Here was your
mountain peak high, here was your lower
high. What happened to Meta? It fell,
right? What about your lows? Well, very
clearly, here was your V low,
and here was your lower V low. So, this
right here told you that price was
changing to a downtrend, and ultimately
we see where Meta is. I mean, this is
Over here, we were trading in the 700s,
Meta is now at $545
a share. And that's really We're just
looking to replicate this on the S&P
chart. And you can go to any of these. I
mean, look at Microsoft. Microsoft's a
great example. High, lower high, low,
lower low. And look at what's happened
to Microsoft, right? To the downside.
It's incredible how just a simple little
tactic like that at all-time highs, and
you can see a change in direction. You
know, everyone has all these fancy
technical indicators. Um I don't use
them. You see my charts. I basically
look at the chart and it tells me
everything I need to know. Am I perfect?
Absolutely not. I have my bad calls just
like my good, but do I win more than I
lose? Absolutely, I do. And that's just
chart reading. All right, so let's keep
an eye on that on the markets today.
10-year yield is basically flat on the
day. We continue to kind of trend down
here. Part of that is oil falling,
right? So, oil is down from the $120 a
barrel level down to basically sub $70 a
barrel. I do think oil's into support.
We'll cover that chart shortly. But,
that's bringing inflation expectations
down, so rates can come in. But, I
partially am am starting to contemplate
is lower rates a function of two things.
Number one, does the bond market sniff
out a slowdown in the US economy? If the
stock market doesn't make continual
higher highs, you're going to have a
large portion of the consumer, the only
consumer that's spending anymore, by the
way, cuz if you looked at the consumer
number spending lately, it is basically
the upper echelon of of investors that
are spending. Everyone else that doesn't
have a ton of investments is feeling the
pinch of inflation. I mean, inflation is
still 4, 5, 6%. That's if you go by
government numbers. I think we know
otherwise. But, the key again is that a
very small echelon of consumers are
still spending. You take the market out
from making them feel richer and start
to correct, and that will evaporate very
quickly. The other side would be Kevin
Warsh. Everyone thinks he is a
definitive, you know, hawk now after
that first, you know, press conference.
I don't buy that one bit. Trump did not
Trump guaranteed us multiple times he
was not going to put a hawk in there. He
was going to put a dove who would cut
rates, not raise rates. And so, I think
the bond market's smart enough to
recognize that as well, and we'll see
rates come in. And by the way, the first
the the most obvious indicator here for
about Kevin Warsh is that he told us
that he's looking to redo how CPI is
calculated. In other words, get rid of
outliers. So, if something has a lot of
inflation one month, he'll just be like,
"Oh, we're not going to look at that.
Let's just look at this." And then it's
like, "Well, yeah, now inflation looks
less." So, that makes it easier to cut
rates. So, all of these little things
are pointing towards a more dovish Fed,
which you would think would be positive,
but I'm not buying that because I think
the economy is actually going to be the
trigger here later this year. All right.
Let's go back to charts, the dollar. We
saw this high pivot over here. We talked
about how the dollar was closing in on a
potential breakout, but hadn't yet, and
the dollar now pulling back. So again, a
lot of people getting very bullish on
the dollar. We are seeing a pullback on
the dollar now. It is helping gold and
silver get minuscule bounces. If we look
at gold, gold came down to my technical
support here at 3,900 to 4,000, and now
you're getting a little bit of a bounce.
We're now getting squeezed between a
wedge pattern where we have to watch
which way it's going to break. All
right. So again, keep an eye on this.
Does it break out? Does it break down?
Which way does it go? If it breaks down,
3,500 is your target. If it breaks out
above this, there'll be lots of
resistance points along the way, but at
least that would be the start of a
bigger move most likely to the upside
towards the all-time highs. And I still
think gold goes to by 2030, it'll be
north of 10K. I still do believe that.
May not be high enough target for some
people, but I'm trying to keep it
realistic overall. Um if we look here at
silver,
uh silver today, you can see same thing,
a small bounce. Silver is very close to
my first major target of 54, and then
obviously that $50 even number is a big
level. We broke my 64 level support, so
it now becomes resistance. So if we
rally up, we're going to have to fight
back through this $64 level on the
chart. So very interesting to kind of
monitor how that plays out. Now, going
back to some stocks, Nvidia, Nvidia is
going to be opening below this technical
support. Keep an eye on this, guys. Can
it recapture the the 195 level? If not,
this is a very dangerous chart for
Nvidia. You could start trading all the
way down to 178, potentially all the way
down to 165 on Nvidia. So keep that on
your radar. Broadcom much the same. The
chart here is a bear flag. So, this
tells me again, look at the drop and
then look at the sideways chop. That is
bearish. Inevitably, the probability
tells us it leads to further downside
and sure enough we're getting a gap down
today. Next target on Broadcom for a
technical bounce will be 350 right here
followed by a couple gap fills after
that eventually down to 290.
And again, folks, we just have to
understand is this is the normal cycle
of markets. Just like when oil was at
120, people got ridiculously bullish and
I said it was going down. All right,
then you look at silver. Silver at $120
an ounce, people were ridiculously
bullish. They swore to me it would never
go back below 100. Now we're we've gone
into the $50 range, right?
The same thing occurs. Emotion takes
control. Everyone gets super energized,
buys into the narratives that they the
mainstream media is telling us, while I
focus on the charts. And the charts,
like I say, aren't 100%, but I can get
them to about 70% probability, which is
pretty darn good. If you're a casino,
you're happy with that, right? 70% of
the time you're always winning. Done
deal right there. All right, before we
continue, guys, I do want to just
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right, let's get on this here, folks.
Back to the charts we go. Uh keep an eye
on Tesla today as a day trade. I'm
watching this trend line right here,
potentially. On a swing trade level, if
this breaks, watch out below, right? So
again, watch out below if this breaks,
but right now today, this 365 could be a
good day trading opportunity for me in
the live day trading room. Don't forget
we have daily, weekly, and monthly
passes there where you get to literally
watch me trade in real time, as well as
the other traders. All right, so again,
watch this level here, 365, on a swing
basis. If this breaks, it's probably
going a lot lower. First support would
be 337,
this pivot low.
Palantir. Palantir has been in freefall.
On June 1st, it was $163.
It's now trading at 107. Any sort of
dump here into this level, really good
technical support. I am a swing trade
buyer of Palantir if it keeps falling
into this 97 to 94 level. Very, very
good technical support. Now again,
notice how I'm saying swing trading. If
you don't know what swing trading is,
please learn what it is. It's not
long-term investing. I don't really
long-term invest. I don't buy something
and just forget about it for 20 years. I
look for opportunities to get 10, 15,
20% gains in a matter of days or weeks,
and then pocket it, and then look for
the next opportunity. Just rinse and
repeat over and over again. That's what
swing trading is. Long-term investing is
great, but I'm involved in the market,
so I might as well take advantage of
that as well. All right, couple other
things to go over here. Uh Alibaba is on
my radar here, down to $92. Look at the
fall on Alibaba. And by the way, folks,
I mean, how many charts have we looked
at today that just look atrocious? I
mean, really atrocious.
It shows you how thin the advanced
decline line has gotten. How many stocks
are making all-time highs? I mean, yeah,
sure. My Micron did yesterday, but what
other stocks made new all-time highs?
Because frankly, most or more are making
all-time or or 52-week lows than highs.
And even if the market is up and you're
seeing that advanced decline so negative
with more stocks hitting 52-week lows
than 52-week highs, it's telling you the
internal breadth of the market. It's
essentially a flashing yellow light that
says, "Be careful. There's something
else going on here."
So, just take heed of these. I mean, the
signals are there. This It's not like
you can't find out the advanced decline.
It's not like we can't find out how many
stocks are hitting 52-week highs and
52-week lows. I mean, you can look at
all of this data. You can scan charts
like I do. And again, clearly, the the
Chinese stocks are just in a world of
hurt. Now, there is a trend line down
here that I'm following on Alibaba. Goes
back to 2022 through the low here in
2024. Again, in later 2024, this one
here, if we get down to this 85-83
level, that would be an epic level of
support. It also matches around this
technical zone as well, right through
here. So, I'm keeping that on my radar.
But again, Alibaba, uh they're in a
little bit of hot water because
apparently, they were using fake
accounts to bombard uh Anthropic or
Claude trying to learn the code and all
that. I don't think really anything
major will come of it, but it's just a
bad look. And obviously, investors are
taking heed and selling the stock in the
near term. Okay? Um we looked at silver.
We looked at gold. Oil today is down
after the pop yesterday after Iran
apparently fired on a ship in the Strait
of Hormuz. Uh oil's coming back in.
Overall, we know that we're into some
major support here, anywhere between
this $67 and basically $69 level. You
have a gap fill gap window and a lot of
technical support. I do think it fills
the gap the way it's acting, but I do
think again we're now gearing up for a
bounce on oil. I think it's getting a
little oversold here and you could be
looking at some sort of technical bounce
in the near term. Natural gas continues
to be more and more intriguing on a
daily basis. We have our cup pattern and
our handle, which is really just a bull
flag here, but again it still hasn't
broken out, but I am keeping it on my
radar. What I'm doing now is I'm
starting to draw on my wedge pattern of
the cup and handle and we can see again
it's kind of just getting
tightened
>> [snorts]
>> in a major way looking to either break
out or break down across the board here.
And then of course lastly guys, we got
to look at Bitcoin here. Oh Bitcoin,
Bitcoin back down to 58,900
here. It is continually trying to break.
Notice this is the third day in a row
where it's kind of hammered on this
level. If it does break and really
starts to cascade, we're looking at 50k
and I've said that many times over. It
could go as low as 50k or pierce 50k. It
again, this is like a make or break on
Bitcoin. If in a in by next week if
we're still seeing this below, I've got
to think it's coming back more.
MicroStrategies is in a world of hurt.
Part of me again, look at MicroStrategy
$82.50
today. That is nuts folks how this stock
has cascaded lower. I mean look at this
daily chart here. Now I will say
MicroStrategies if it gets down to about
73, there's a massive amount of support,
but really in reality
MicroStrategies is trading on Bitcoin,
right? It's just a leverage play on
Bitcoin at this time. And part of my
concern, and I've said this all along
with Bitcoin, is that you never want one
person or entity to hold so much
Bitcoin. Cuz it just starts and number
one, the market has this way of sniffing
that out and they want to squeeze that.
They want to put pressure on that, try
to force liquidations, and again it just
creates this other alternative in the
market versus just the natural the way
things should be going. So, listen,
we're going to have to see how this
plays out on Bitcoin. Again, I still
like Bitcoin longer term, but I'm a
patient waiter here until it gets a
little bit lower. I'm keeping an eye on
the 60k level if it can recapture it,
we'll go from there. All right, I got to
get to my trading room, guys. Thank you
so much for tuning in today. Happy
Friday to you all and I'll see you for
trade for the weekly wrap-up at 4:20
today. Take care.