Did MU Earnings Save The AI Trade? PCE Inflation Data Report, Key Trades

My name is Gareth Soloway [music] and I
was a losing trader until I mastered
technical analysis. Logic and charts
beat hype and narratives every time. Now
I teach investors [music] the same
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multi-millionaire. This is my trading
game plan.
Good morning everybody. Welcome to my
trading game plan. My name is Gareth
Soloway, chief market strategist here at
verifiedinvesting.com.
We have a lot to discuss today. Micron
surging on earnings going right back to
where it was about three days ago just
at that 1240 level. That was a
pre-market high. That's right where the
stock is trading right now. So
incredible how you have a 20% drop and
then earnings again push it right back
to those recent highs. Now the question
is will it take out those highs and
continue to move higher based on what
they said. Now we talked yesterday about
some changes going on in the sector and
those changes are still coming. We still
have SK Hynix which will be listed on
July 10th here in the US for investors
to buy. They literally produce the exact
same thing as Micron. Micron had great
earnings. We all expected that. We knew
the revenue and the guidance would be
raised. The key was they talked about
these long-term contracts and again
locking in long-term contracts. I would
just point out to people that generally
those can be broken. So if you're
charging a thousand dollars for X amount
of memory but price drops to 200 the
companies are going to break those
longer term contracts. So it sounds good
on paper and it's great and they were
very boisterous about it but let's just
see how the future unfolds here. I'm
still an overall skeptic. All right,
let's go into the charts. We have a lot
to discuss. Yesterday after the bell by
the way, we also heard from Qualcomm
talking things up. So there was a lot of
kind of bang for your buck yesterday
after hours on the semiconductors but I
will say this, insider information
leaked out once again. That's right
folks. If you look at the charts, just
before the end of the day, the Micron
charts started to pop dramatically, as
did it take up the futures. Guess what?
The elites got that news ahead of you
and me, and they were buying in heavily
before this massive Micron surge. All
right, into the charts we go. By the
way, here was that late day surge on the
futures right at the end of the day that
took the markets up, and then we got
Micron earnings out. You can see again
from that point on, really we just went
sideways to slightly up. We did get PCE
data this morning, right here at 8:30
a.m. The PCE data is the favored gauge
of inflation by the Federal Reserve, and
it basically came in in line with
estimates. Core was in line. Um,
month-over-month regular was essentially
in line, as well. So, it is I mean, it
when you hear in line, it says, "Oh,
it's not so bad, right?" Wrong. You're
still talking about 3.6% inflation
versus the 2% that the Fed is supposed
to get this back to. They can't get it
back in Pandora's Box at this point. I
have a hard time believing that without
a recession, we will get inflation to go
back below 2%. So, again, pick your
poison. Higher inflation or a recession.
One or the other. That's the only way
you're getting the inflation back under
2%. All right, let's go to the S&P 500.
Remember, we've been closely monitoring
the charts to see if we were going to
get a lower high. We already have the
lower low. Today, we're going to be
gapping up on the S&P. Again, I'm
hesitant to say this is a lower high
just yet. I really wanted to see Here's
our low with our lower low, and to
confirm a lower high, I really want to
see price come down and make one more
lower low, right? So, then you have a
very defined lower high, as well. We
haven't done that. And today, again,
we'll be gapping higher on the S&P 500
based on what we're seeing on the back
of Micron, Qualcomm, and some other
tidbits of information. All right, so
that's something to watch. Now, for the
markets right now, one of the big
positives is the 10-year yield has
broken back below a key support level.
All right, so remember, the market wants
lower rates. Now, lower rates are great
as long as it's not associated with
inflation. Right now, lower rates are
probably because oil continues to see
selling. We're now below $70 a barrel on
oil. Remember, there's a key gap fill at
67-ish on oil. That's probably where it
wants to go. So, if we take a look here
and we go to the 10-year yield, here was
our down-sloping support line. You can
see it hit here, it hit here, then it
broke out, then we came back in and we
hammered on this level, we bounced, we
hammered on this level, and now look, we
are breaking back below that level. As
long as we stay below this line, that's
a net positive for the markets lower
rates overall. Now, you might say, "Wait
a minute, why are we getting lower rates
when Kevin Warsh appeared to be so
hawkish to the rest of the market,
right?" Remember, we had this I mean, it
seems like ancient history following all
this other stuff, but just last
Wednesday, the Federal Reserve came out
and didn't do anything, but they were
very hawkish. Many players on the Fed
voting board wanted to hike rates later
this year, and even Kevin Warsh came
across as being a little hawkish.
I think that was more of an act
personally by Kevin Warsh. Now, I think
the people on the Fed Federal Reserve
board, they are actually hawkish, but we
know the president said he would only
appoint someone that's going to cut
rates, not raise rates. So, I don't buy
that we're going to see rate hikes later
this year. I think that was a more of a
first statement to show independence by
the Fed, to kind of show the market
that, "Oh, well, I could be hawkish." I
don't think he's actually got the
backbone to hike rates later this year.
I hope I'm wrong, folks, because if
inflation stays high, you need to do it.
The other factor for rates coming down
is also oil, right? Oil coming down
brings inflation expectations down,
which then obviously relaxes the need
for higher rates, all right, at least in
the near term. Now, looking at the
Nikkei last night, the Nikkei pushed up
about 2%, so we did see a bounce back.
Remember, they had the in the insight on
Micron earnings, as did the Kospi, which
is the South Korean stock market. Kospi
was up 5.42%,
but this is still in interesting, folks.
Technically speaking, this is still an
inside bar bounce of this massive drop
of 10%, and I'm reticent to say that
this is going to be negated. Are we
going to take out the highs? And that's
honestly what I'm watching now. A lot of
people are back on the AI bandwagon
saying, "Oh, here we go again." But be
careful. A lot of the AI stocks, I mean,
listen, if your memory if you're a
memory stock, yes, you're up there.
You're up sizeably.
But if you look at a lot of these other
memory of these other semiconductor
stocks, Micron, Broadcom, and those are
the big boys, but even looking at some
of the smaller players, they are getting
a bounce today, but they're not even
close to their recent highs. And that to
me could be the most telling thing.
Listen, remember, Anthropic's coming
public later this year. We also have
OpenAI. We have the SK Hynix deal for
$29 billion they want to dump on the
retail investor by April by July 10th.
So, these factors the institutions need
to keep retail bullish. But if you look
at the underlying signals in the charts,
you have to wonder what is going on.
Now, just to bring up that chart right
now, look at Nvidia. All right, Nvidia
continues to look weaker. I mean, yes,
look at Nvidia, it's bouncing today, but
it's literally getting a tiny bounce.
Look at that. Tiny bounce on Nvidia. All
right, let's flip over to Broadcom,
AVGO. Broadcom, nasty move up. I mean,
look at this beautiful trend line, by
the way, that nailed the top on this
thing. Huge drop as they their earnings
they didn't raise guidance. And then
look at today's bounce. I mean, sure
it's up, of course, cuz the markets are
up, but this is where it's trading in
the premarket going into the open. And
so again, you know, and listen, we can
go to other names as well um out there
that are not specific to the memory
chart or the memory trade, and those are
stalling. Those have only gotten
mediocre bounces. Now listen, some of
them are still decent, but some of them
again are well off their highs. So don't
get fooled here. Let's make sure we want
to see the entire market the entire
semiconductor go to new all-time highs,
not just a select group that fools the
retail investor into thinking the AI
move is still going. That's what
happened in the dot-com bubble. They had
a few select stocks that were still
strong at the very end, coaxing the
retail investor in while the rug was
getting pulled from underneath everyone
else. And again, I'm seeing it in the
comments and everything. People again so
robustly bullish, probably more bullish
than they were even just days ago when
we were at all-time highs on the semis,
but many of the semis are not at
all-time highs. All right, Micron Micron
here, guys. Notice these highs right
here. Look at this. And this is just how
cool charts are. This was the high in
the premarket on the 22nd of June. Look
at that.
Incredible. Absolutely incredible. We're
just hammering there. Now I do think
this pushes through intraday, but I want
to see where it closes today. Does it
close above or below? But this is an
incredible move. I mean, absolutely
incredible on Micron. Can't take
anything away from it. Again, if we look
at the daily chart, you can see again
we're trading up here from the daily
from during market hours high, but the
premarket high was back up there. I want
to see what happens. This is very
reminiscent of where we had a big gap up
on earnings. I think it was I I think it
was right over Was this the last one or
maybe it was over here actually? The
last time they reported an earnings
here,
they gapped up and then ended up getting
a 30% drawdown. So, let's keep our eyes
on that. Qualcomm yesterday, wow, look
at Qualcomm rolling over here. Still up
sizeably, but they came out they had an
investor day yesterday and they talked
all the bullishness. I mean again, these
investor days are dime a dozen now. It
used to be like Apple did their investor
day and that was it for years and years.
Now it's like, oh well, this week we got
Nvidia. Now we got Micron. Now Qualcomm.
They're all doing it because they're
trying to pump their stock. The more
upside they get, the more shares they
can dump on the public at a better
valuation instead diluting, but getting
that capital raised for all of the AI
spend that they're trying to do. But the
key here is Qualcomm made some very
bullish comments. So, yesterday after
hours it racked up to the upside. Now
remember that insider trading, the
elites getting in before. I want to show
you this guys because this is the kind
of stuff I love showing to you guys out
there. So, Micron yesterday was trading
down down down. It was at the lows of
the day right here at 3:00. All right,
at 3:10, all of a sudden it starts to go
vertical, right? And it literally
rallied $70
in the final 50 minutes of the trading
day before earnings were released right
here. Now, was that just a coincidence?
I mean, if you believe in coincidence is
happening every single time there's big
news in the markets, sure, it was a
coincidence. But
my guess is
the elites got that information just
like they get information non-stop these
days and they put billions of dollars to
work and they had that trade entered and
executed long before the market closed
and all the rest of us got that
information. Pretty wild stuff when you
see that. I mean, again, it's not a
coincidence you see a vertical. I mean,
listen, if this was one green candle,
okay. But, to see literally buy, buy,
buy, buy, buy into the end of the day, a
a 7% rally in Micron at the end of the
day before this earnings pop, I find
that a little suspicious myself. Now,
other news. Now, this is good news for
IBM,
but it's bad news for the chip stocks.
Okay? But, again,
the the
It's like, what's the shiny shiny rock
today? The shiny coin? It's Micron. And
so, you're going to still see generally
a lot of these stocks are going to be up
today, the semiconductors, but IBM
unveiled, check this out, guys. IBM
here, if we go to the intraday chart,
look at this pre-market. Look at that
pop on IBM. Now, it's faded, but they
unveiled a new chip that's going to
compete with all of these other players,
the Taiwan semis, the the Nvidias, etc.
It's literally under a nanometer. It is
so small, but it's so powerful. And this
is what I'm talking about, guys, is that
competition is coming. Whether you're in
the memory sector, or whether you're in
regular chips that Nvidia does, or any
of these other chips, ARM Holdings is
producing AI chips. We have Intel now
starting to produce all this stuff. The
competition is coming. So, when Micron
says, "Hey, we had 86% gross margins."
That sounds amazing, sure.
But, the thing is is that the second we
start to see those margins coming in,
that's when the stock is going to take a
dump. And we're already seeing that on
Nvidia, right? I mean, you look at
Nvidia, it's way off of its all-time
highs. Broadcom, same thing. Broadcom,
again, just the fact that they didn't
raise earnings guidance is very, very
telling. Now, they might be selling more
chips, but again, if their margins are
contracting, then they could sell, I
mean, if if margins drop 50%, they They
sell double the chips and still make the
same amount of money, and that's it,
right? And that's versus making more
money. And so, obviously, I'm using a
big example of a 50% cut in margins, but
that's the idea here.
And it is coming, whether it's this year
or next, we will see it. All right.
Looking at a couple stocks, this is one
I'm highlighting for you guys. This is
one of my favorite potential swing trade
setups. If it comes down, we've seen
Alcoa collapse here over the last This
is a weekly chart, by the way. So, four
weeks down in a row at 48, you have this
former pivot, and it's also
approximately a 618 Fibonacci from this
low to this high. I love those chart
setups for a swing trade. Now, it's not
a long-term investment for me, just
swing trade, but we should get a major
bounce off of that level. All right, so
keep that on your radar here as we get
into the next week or two. It doesn't It
probably will not trigger today,
frankly,
but I would say could trigger in the
next week. It's going to be on my radar
for a swing trade. Gold getting a small
bounce today. So, again, notice we came
down to that $39 to $4,000 support level
that I gave you guys yesterday. I said,
"We are at support here. We're probably
going to get some small bounce." I don't
think we're at the lows on gold yet, but
I do think it's due for a bounce, and
we're starting to see this bounce in
smart money commodities uh at
verifiedinvesting.com, where I have my
commodity service, and I just trade ETFs
and stocks. So, you don't have to trade
futures or anything like that. But, I
did pick up the ETF for palladium and
platinum yesterday because they hit
major technical levels. I also took
profits on COPX on a short, which we
made, I think about 13%. That was a
short on the copper miners. That was a
great exit yesterday as well. Again, uh
smart money commodities and miners
there. Now, again, I'm looking to enter
on gold a little bit lower. Got to come
down. I'm going to get a bounce here,
but it's not enough for me to jump in
yet. And then I think we get one final
flush out, 36, 3,500, and then I start
buying heavily. silver. Great. Well, I
wouldn't call it a great bounce today.
It's up about 2%. Normally that's a good
move on silver, but after it's dump
recently just in the last week from 71
and a half down to 55.70 yesterday, it's
getting a small technical bounce. Again,
if we look at this, this is my
short-term support. We almost hit it. We
almost hit it. This 54 level is going to
be support and then the big one is this
$50 zone right down here. And again, I
still remember people saying it would
never go back below 100. I I have
comments back on videos where I said,
"Guys, this is going to correct and it's
going to be nasty." Um and we were Oh,
no, it's never going back back below
100. Silver's never. I mean, the demand,
the the physical versus the paper. I
mean, I heard every excuse in the book.
And it's like, "Yeah, but emotion rules
the day." Remember, and if there's one
thing you remember from today's lesson,
short-term emotion is in control of the
markets.
Long-term fundamentals matter.
Fundamentals absolutely matter to
long-term, but short-term greed and
fear. And fear is pervasive just like
greed. If greed can make uh silver run
up in a matter of 2 months from $50 to
120,
then you can drop from 120 to 50 bucks
very easily. We've almost gotten there
now. All right. Uh let's go to a couple
other charts. Oil continues getting a
small bounce today. We hit gap window
yesterday. Gap window is where the kind
of the low uh from the gap here. We had
a close here at 67 and change. We gapped
up the next day and began our bigger
run. This is now a gap window. I still
think we'll fill the gap, but again, you
may get a small bounce. Oil is oversold
here, guys. It is very oversold. If
you're any of these countries with
strategic reserves that are now
depleted, you are buying millions of
barrels a day to replenish because you
still don't know if the 60-day,
you know, window here with Iran and the
US will yield a result. You just don't
know. With Trump and his rage tweeting
or or with Iran and their, you know,
unwillingness to give up uranium, you
don't know how it's going to play out.
So, you are filling up your reserves at
these points. But, needless to say, it's
been a great pullback. Hopefully, we see
it all reflected at the fuel pumps
sooner than later. Natural gas continues
to inch up a little bit. I still think
this is this is starting to look a
little bit better here as a cup and
handle. I actually am starting to like
this chart setup more and more
for a potential breakout. I'm not in
yet, but I am keeping a very close eye
on it. And then lastly, Bitcoin. Bitcoin
flushed down to 59,000 making a
short-term lower low and then rebounded.
Today, it's up slightly, only slightly,
which is disappointing, right? Cuz, you
know, yesterday and the day before we
had big sells in the tech sector. Today,
we're getting a big bounce in the tech
sector. Granted, it's very isolated down
to the AI stocks, but Bitcoin not
getting much of a bounce. Now, listen,
as long as it holds this lower pivot
area,
it's okay. But, again, the price action
is not great on crypto right now.
There's no doubt about that. All right,
I've got to get going, guys. Got to get
to my trading room. I will keep you guys
in the loop on everything going on.
Thank you so much for spending time with
me on this Thursday morning, and I'll
see you soon. Take care.