Oil Spikes on Iran News, ARM Rips, NVIDIA Bear Flag — Today's Full Breakdown

Each [music] afternoon, real setups are broken down with entry strategies and the technical reasoning behind every trade. This is today's best trade setups [music] with Verified Investing. >> Welcome to today's best trade setups. My name is Benjamin Pool, head trader here at Verified Investing. We have a little bit of a mixed market today. The S&P 500 is about flat even though oil is up over 7%. There's a little bit of a disconnect there. Usually when we see oil prices rising, the S&P usually sells off. That's not what's happening right now, but again, we have a mixed market, which is why the S&P 500 is kind of balancing out. Let's just jump right into the charts and go over the SP uh S&P 500. Let's go ahead and add that stage. There we go. All right, here's the SPY. We've got this long-term up-sloping trend line. This goes way back. This goes back to the highs of November 2022 and December 2022. Notice how price consolidated right on the underside of this up-sloping trend line multiple times. Got back up to the here, got a little bit of a rejection, but not a huge sell-off. Now, I'm going to have to zoom into the charts for you guys and show you what price action is currently doing. So, as you can see, we could be starting to put in a little bit more of a rounded top. We're not going extremely vertical like we were here, just making slightly higher highs, but could again be putting in a rounded top. So, what I'd like to see is us to recapture this up-sloping trend line right here to the downside, start consolidating sideways right on the $748.17 level. Once it can start doing that, then all of a sudden, we're starting to see some bears come in and start to take profits. Now, I do have this up-sloping trend line right here. Connects this pivot low here, secondary hit, third hit, finally broke down, and now we're going back up, and we haven't quite retraced it. The problem is this is an extremely vertical up something trend line. So, what I'm going to do is I'm actually going to readjust this based on current price action. We're going to adjust this right here to kind of give you an idea of where price action is being saved. Now, so pivot low here, secondary hit, third, fourth, fifth. Now, we're kind of chopping on that again. I like this trend line better than this vertical one only because it's a little bit more slanted than the vertical one, and that gives us a better idea of when price action can finally break below it, and then retrace at the scene of the crime. Right now, with this does favor more of a pullback because of the overextension. But, as long as again, we can stay above 748 17, this is a nice pivot top in the charts, then we're going to maintain the bullish sentiment. Once we start breaking that, then we have an opportunity come back down and retest the 731 34 level, and then really down to the 723 70 cent level. So, on a day trade basis, because we're sitting above $755, $756, my first shortable level would be a pierce of 760 on the SPY. What if we can do that, that is where I would short it, and for a long play, you would need a a decent sell-off. My support level would be $748.17 for a long play today. Now, the SOXX I was mentioning with this wide-range red bar candle that I was going to be playing this as a topping tail. So, the way you do that is we take a Fibonacci extension tool, take it from the pivot high to the pivot low, and then you would play this either on a 786 or an even an 886 Fibonacci retracement. If the SOXX does close above $584.38, this would negate this reversal candle. And again, I'm playing it like a topping tail even though it's not technically a topping tail, but it's a good reversal candle indicating that there is a lot of sellers at the upper end of this chart. And this indicates that there's a potential rollover. So, what I'm looking for now is because this red bar candle has some consolidation right inside of it, this is starting to favor a continued move to the downside. One thing that I'm monitoring though is this up something trend line. Pivot low here, secondary hit, third hit, got below it and then recaptured it. So, your major support level on the SOXX is going to be this pivot top right here at $542.30. If we can drop into that level today, this is a buying opportunity for the SOXX. And then knowing that I've got additional support just above it at $542.65. And that would be if it went there went there today. Now, we start breaking below that, our next gap in the charts is sitting right here at $524.67. On a short basis, because we're playing this like a top and tail, if it does head all the way back up, 584.38, that is where I'd be looking to short the SOXX today um for a day trade. The USO chart, look at this. It didn't get down to the support. I was anticipating price action getting down to $124.11. The Iranian government decided that they are no longer in negotiations with the US. So, here's the gap in the charts at $137.03. This is where we got a little bit of a resistance. And then here's a prior gap in the charts. If you guys don't know anything about technicals, you can actually use prior gaps in the charts for potential rebounds either for support and a resistance, depending on where the price action gets to. Because it's already recaptured that or already hit that gap in the charts again, I would be looking at the next gap, which is sitting just a little bit higher at $140.92. So, if we do get up there today, I will be taking a day trade short on the USO if there are shares available. Every once in a while they do limit the shares, and so be a little bit cautious with this. Make sure that you have the shares available if you do decide to dollar cost average. For me, this would be a single entry. If we do get up to this level, I'm out a single entry if it closes above this gap in the charts on a 15-minute closing basis, meaning that on a fit with a 15-minute candle, if we go to the 15-minute candle, if this candle right here would have closed above that 140.92, then I would stop out of the trade. Again, that's on a 15-minute closing candle above my entry price. ASTS is getting a nice sell-off. Got up to this double top area, closed above it, and then all of a sudden it had some negative press, and that's why we're getting this continued sell-off. Did have a nice bounce in this gap in the charts, which tells me that the support and resistance levels are working pretty well on ASTS. $96.23 is your next gap in the charts, and you notice over here you've got another prior gap in the charts. So, this is additional confluence, not only a previous or a current gap, but also a previous gap, as well as a ton of price consolidation in this area. $96.23 is where I would looking to play ASTS for a long if we can get a nice sell-off on this chart. Right now, it looks like we're getting a little bit of a bid just below the 100 or just above the $100 whole round number. So, if you're a little bit more aggressive, you'd play a pierce of 100 bucks, but for me, 96.23 is a level that I'm looking for on ASTS. NBIX is a monster today. It got as high as 700 or $274.80. My shortable level today is a pierce of 275. So, 275.07 is where I'm looking to short NBIX. This is only for a day trade. In this chart, I do have logarithmic charts turned on to give us a better idea of how price action is responding as far as overall percentages and not necessarily the price. So, what I've done is I've connected a pivot top a series of pivot tops. So, we got to zoom way out. So, pivot low, pivot low, pivot low. Here's the pivot top that I was mentioning, secondary pivot top. So, now we actually got a nice rejection off of this pivot top already. Finally starting to get above it, but look at the move. So, from that pivot you got a 21% drawdown on NBIS. Now, again that we're above it, what I'd be looking for is a secondary up-sloping trend line. This connects this pivot low here, pivot low here, got above it, was respected as support and then resistance. So, if we do continue this push higher on NBIS, then I would be looking for an up move or an upside target of around $321.17. And this is where you could look for about a 15 to 20% pullback if we can continue this march to the upside. Lunar, LUNR, again I have logarithmic charts. It looks a little bit wonky if you don't have logarithmic charts, but you could still play this. Pivot low here, secondary hit, price consolidated around on top of it, got rejected, resistance, resistance, and now we've got a lot of price consolidation. So, if you're aggressive, your long level would be sitting at about $37.47. If you turn on logarithmic charts, look, this gives you a better idea or at least for me. You got a pivot low, secondary hit, a lot of price consolidation, hit perfectly off of this up-sloping trend line. So, what I would like to see personally is price to consolidate a little bit more, get into this crooks right here at $31.28. It's a pivot top as well as all these low pivots in the area, these wicks for my support level. So, I'm from $38.14 all the way down. That is another 17 to 18% drawdown on LUNR. So, this would be a multi-factor trade where you've got a pivot top as well as a solid up-sloping trend line. And the reason I like stuff like this is it gives me an idea of where I can enter and it gives me an exact exit price. So, if price does consolidate or start closing below these pivot tops and the up-sloping trend line, you could just exit the trade. Nvidia Nice little aggressive level. I said my shortable level was $216.56. It got above it, retested this underside of this down-sloping trend line or this up-sloping trend line. Look at that. Had a huge massive end-of-day sell-off. So, I noticed or I I I mentioned that we never really had too big of a sell-off. Now, we're starting to get a little bit more bearish. Pivot low here, secondary hit, third hit, price got a little bit of a bounce, closed below it, retested it, closed below it again, retested it, and now all of a sudden we're pushing back up. If we can maintain price action below this up-sloping trend line, then we're starting to put in more of a bear flag, consolidating slightly higher going into this 206 I don't know why that says 206. This is a uh short Let me redo that for you. Short level at 223.47. Here we go. So, if we can consolidate and get back to this 223.47 level right here where there's previous gap in the charts as well as this up-sloping trend line again, then all of a sudden this is a swing short play. Knowing that if it does start closing above 223.47 on a daily closing basis, then I would stop out of the trade. This is also my aggressive uh swing trade short level today. So, if we can get up there, this is where I'm pulling the trigger for a short and looking for a nice 1 to 2% pullback on the chart of Nvidia. ORCL is into a nice gap in the charts. Look at this thing. I love how Oracle respects support and resistance. So, 240.83, if you can get into this trade right here, if it's if it's not above this on a 15-minute closing basis, this 240.83 level by 12:30, then I think I think this is still a great shortable level. There were a ton of people who are really bullish on Oracle. And look at what happened. From this gap in the charts, as well as all of this price consolidation, once it got below that, they were as much as 43% out of the money, which is why we're getting this nice pullback. If we're above this on a 15-minute closing basis, then you got to look for the next level of resistance, which is this gap in the charts. And this is my shortable level, pierce of 250 bucks. That's where I'd look to get in. Um $249.40 is going to be a rejection level on ORCL. Or if you're a little bit more conservative, wait for that 250 whole round number. ARM is pushing higher today. Look at this. I did have a shortable level this morning. 410.92 was my first aggressive level. Look at the move. This is the logarithmic chart. We're up 17% on the day for ARM. After it hit this double top again from the pre-market, it had as much as a 7% pullback. And now we're getting a lot of bullish momentum going into ARM. I originally was thinking 415 bucks. Because there's so much more bullish sentiment in ARM right now, what I'd be looking for is $420 pierce. And that would also be my stopped out. If it does close above $420 on a 15-minute closing basis, I would look to exit the trade, and then I would stop out, take a minimal loss, but I would also be looking for about a 2 to 3% pullback. In the charts, there was a nice up sloping trend line. That's going to be a lot of resistance that it's struggling to get through. Even though it closes above this level, or even if it does, doesn't guarantee that we're going to have a breakout. We need another continuation move to the upside. If that happens, 500 bucks on ARM could be the next upside resistance. So, that's what I have for you guys. If you guys are getting something out of this, please make sure you're following, liking, subscribing, sharing with those friends so that we can get the same market information you're getting. And Trading the Close, Drew Dosik is going to be going live covering everything that happened in the market, so you guys don't want to miss it. He does an excellent job, and that's at 4:20. It's a live show, so you guys can put in your comments there, too. You guys have a great rest of your day. We'll see you guys next time on Charts. Take care. >> [music] >> Yeah. >> [music]