SMH Trend Breaks As Micron Earnings Hit After Bell

[music]
>> Hello everybody. Welcome to Trading the
Close. My name is Drew Dosik and guys,
let me tell you, about 10 seconds before
the market closed, SMH ripped and was
pushing up negating the potential
confirmation that would have broken the
whole chart on SMH, at least the current
trend. So, we're kicking the can into
tomorrow. We're going to get into that
here in a few moments, but guys, the
markets were under pressure today, like
I said, all up until the last little bit
of the trading action and then we
started accelerating up. MU earnings
were posted after hours, pushing that
stock price higher. Um so, it looks like
at least in the near term, we are going
to be pushing up overnight. Now, keep in
mind, I I touched base on this in Monday
of this week, we likely are going to
have uh investors trimming their
positions. You may say, "Why?" We've got
core PCE data that's going to be
released tomorrow morning at 8:30. Plus,
we had Micron earnings after the bell
today, both of which were big events
that likely were going to cause some
investors just to go ahead and start
trimming a little bit, that way they got
their profits in case there's a bad
print on that PCE tomorrow or a bad
earnings report this afternoon by
Micron. But, if you recall, a couple
weeks ago, that's when the markets
really started getting jittery with
inflation data picking up and rate hikes
really surfacing amongst FOMC. That's
where we're at now. Matter of fact, rate
hikes are looking like they're going to
come as early as September. So, that's
continuing to move closer and closer to
current times. Anyway, let's get into
some charts, guys, and start breaking
down price action. All right, so we've
got the S&P 500 today that you see it
did close down only 0.05%,
but then after hours, we're now pushing
up almost $4 on the SPY at at 7:37 and
17 cents. If I get in here to the
10-minute chart. You can see here on the
spiders, we were in bearish
consolidation right here towards the end
of the day and then this candle just
ripped up when the semis started pushing
up in the last 10-minute portion of the
day. Now, a couple things to remind you
on the near term. You see this inclining
trend line. This was the level that I
was telling you price needed to get back
down underneath that could then warrant
the spiders potentially breaking lower.
And you can see here the highs on the
last two trading days were getting
stopped by this inclining trend line
since we did gap down over that trend
line. So, we'll see tomorrow morning
with the PCE data. Will it take the S&P
500 with this chart on the spiders over
$740?
If it does, then that does at least
clear the air for near term upside back
above that inclining trend line.
Otherwise, if we remain underneath that
inclining trend line, be watching for
more consolidation that eventually could
test the top end of this parallel
channel right at 700 and 29 dollars on
the SPY.
Next up into the Qs, guys. Qs also had a
decent down day today down 0.42%
even with the last minute rally here on
the chart that you see pushing up. Now,
after hours is another story. Price
action is all the way up here above all
of today's price action. So, along with
MU's earnings, looks like we are again
getting into at least near term bullish
sentiment
back in the AI data center play. But
guys, it's not over yet. As I said, PCE
data is coming out tomorrow. That
certainly could change at least this
near term pop. And guys, if you haven't
recalled,
a lot of times on earnings, we will have
big pushes in the immediate reaction.
But then once the earnings call comes,
the narrative changes ever so slightly
and then we could see selling. That all
could happen. Plus, again, third time
now, PCE tomorrow morning. All right.
And guys, before we move on, I do want
to thank one of our sponsors, Rumble
Wallet. Rumble Wallet makes buying
crypto and setting up a wallet very easy
because they work with MoonPay that
allows you to fund your account with
either a debit card, your bank account,
or even a credit card, guys. So, that
makes it super simple and easy to go
ahead and fund that account. What can
you buy there? Well, you can buy
Bitcoin, you can buy stable coins, other
cryptocurrencies, plus you can buy
Tether Gold, which is backed by physical
gold. So, it's really neat. Mainly, too,
it's non-custodial, meaning that you got
full control over your wallet, not some
other bank or other institution. You
have full control over it, plus you've
got access to the Rumble ecosystem,
allowing you to tip and support your
favorite creators. And lastly, guys, you
want to find out more? Scan that QR code
right here or click the link in the
descriptions. You'll find out a lot more
on Rumble Wallet. All right, guys, so
back into the charts we go, into the Qs.
You see here, support has not yet been
tagged, 703.09.
Near-term, we are pushing up. That means
tomorrow, if we continue this trend,
we're likely going to be in this range
of the 738.43.
You see we have got a gap fill at
737.95.
That likely will be major resistance if
we do elevate that high, which that
would be a surprise, but nonetheless,
guys, this was a major surprise for me
because most of the day today, we had
price action that was trading underneath
yesterday's price. Now, what have I I've
been saying about this inclining
trendline? Whatever's going on in the Qs
and the Spiders, I've been saying follow
this trendline. On the SMH, the semis do
lead the way. When they fail, you better
bail, folks. That's the saying, and it's
true for a reason. And we were on the
verge of breaking this inclining
trendline, getting a confirmation today
with a close underneath yesterday's low.
Guys, look at this rally here in the
last little bit, getting us out of that
confirmed breakdown, much of which I was
anticipating, talking about today. And
guys, we just literally kicked the can
into tomorrow. We see here we did this
several days over the other week back
here starting on June 5th and moving all
the way until we got out of touching
that candle and that's since right here
on the 15th of June when we accelerated
higher. The curious part about all of
this, we had a hanging man candle here
on June 3rd and we had a hanging man
candle here on June 22nd. After June 20
June 3rd's hanging man candle, we end up
dropping 13.65%.
This hanging man candle, look we dropped
so far 9.45%
but since now we're rallying back up,
look at this testing this inclining
trend line as we speak guys. So that's
really remarkable what MU is currently
able to do. We're going to have to see
what happens tomorrow. Where price does
close, it's unlikely we're going to
close underneath the lows here from
Tuesday but we'll find out. We'll have
to see tomorrow. That is the level to
break for confirmed breakdown. The low
right here on June 23rd. All right, into
the 10-year yield. Look at this nice
decline on the 10-year yield. Both
Monday and Tuesday elevated above this
key resistance level that we've been
tracing and highlighting 4.484%.
Even putting in daily wicks the last two
days on the bottom side showing that the
likelihood was we're going to continue
moving higher but slip and slide today.
What a rejection. Look how failed moves
usually generate some of the biggest
moves in the opposite direction. We were
anticipated like I said to move higher
then boom, we're moving lower and not
only we're moving lower, we're moving
lower than all of this consolidation
that already took place. Very
interesting move here on the 10-year
yield. Where's the next level of
support? It's going to be right down
here 4.363%.
We'll see if we even talk about that as
early as tomorrow. Into gold guys, you
can see gold
nice decline today down under $4,000.
Now if we continue to breach and sell in
this area, this next level of support is
going to be at $3,886.
Look here on the gold RSI, back under 30
on the daily RSI, telling us we're
likely going to be due for a bounce
sometime soon. It very well could have
started now, but be watching for 3,800
$3,886
to be exact. Watch for that level
potentially to get tagged. If so, that
level could generate a bounce then to
retest the parallel that it had just
broken. Now, keep in mind, one candle
underneath, very similar to what's going
on here with SMH.
We had one candle underneath, didn't
confirm it here, so we'll see if we get
any sort of confirming move tomorrow and
tagging that support, in which case you
could potentially then short gold here
once it re-attacks the parallel. Need to
check another box first before you do
that.
Next up into silver, nice decline today
on silver, down 6.5% as we speak. The
low of the day got down here near
$55.62.
If you go online, a lot of these
metal dealers like JM Bullion are
selling silver just $2 above spot. So,
they're they're eager to get rid of it
on this decline coming down. I'm still
waiting at we're right in the sweet spot
though. I was hoping we were going to
close a little bit lower and at least
tag this level of support at 5509. If I
flip over the 10-minute time frame, look
at this beautiful 10-minute bottoming
tail. That implies at least near term,
silver's likely marching right back up
here to this 50% area of the parallel
right at $58.59.
Be watching to see what price action
does right there because that'll make or
break this current momentum pushing up
higher. If we get rejected here, be
watching for this 10-minute bottoming
tail to get retested. Otherwise, I mean,
the battle line basically is right where
I described, right at the 50% area of
the parallel for near term upside or
rejection in near term downside. Let me
flip over to the DXY real quick to give
you guys an insight in some appreciation
as to why likely the dollar pushing up
has been hurting both gold and silver.
Look at this nice push today up about
0.19%
extending itself from this breakout that
has occurred on this inclining parallel
channel. Now, the next resistance will
be up here at 101.97.
I anticipate there to be a rejection at
that point in which in which would
likely happen is price action to then
come back down and test the top of the
parallel, the parallel that it just
broke out from. That parallel level is
at 100. 79 points. Uh next up into US
oil. Guys, look at this nasty drop today
on US oil trading now under $70 a
barrel. Very nice decline all all while
doing so. Look at the daily RSI down
here at the bottom of the screen. We're
at 25.85.
Remember, just the other week I was
saying it's looking like oil is due for
a bounce right in this range because
we're starting to break that daily RSI.
We put in a very minimal bounce. Got as
high up here $78.14
and then just sold off hard. Now, we are
right into a major level of support, one
of which that comes from this declining
trend line you see on this weekly time
frame from this pivot high on Monday,
July 1st, connected over to the next two
and three major pivots. You notice how
when price action gapped up over it, it
actually caught support right here on
top of that trend line as well. So, this
is a very
solid level of support. Would be very
surprised if we break it and confirm
under and continue moving. We likely, if
we are even going to pierce it, I would
almost anticipate a potential bounce
coming the next day. Now, keep in mind,
there is, you know, language for a peace
agreement, but it is still fragile and
early in its development. So, anything
can happen there, which could then send
gas and US oil prices right back up.
First resistance 75.56.
If we break this and hold, 62.33 is the
next major level of support, but be
anticipating a potential bounce right
here amongst this consolidation atop all
of these pivots right around $67.22.
Next up into Nat Gas today, Nat Gas is
really just dancing around this
inclining trend line much like SMH is
doing on its chart. You can see both on
yesterday and the day before, we closed
underneath this inclining trend line.
That now then flips the narrative
basically, making this trend line
resistance. So, let's see here tomorrow
at $3.33. If we do get price to push up,
we likely should be seeing some
rejection. Next area of support $3.03
on the chart of Nat Gas.
Into Bitcoin which also, let me flip to
the daily, also was under pressure today
putting in
full day of trading action underneath
this inclining blue parallel channel.
Getting back down to the lows that
occurred here on Friday, June 5th. So,
you can see here it's done a good job
getting itself out of oversold near-term
territory on the RSI. It's above 30 even
with the declines both yesterday and
today. So, the main thing you got to be
watching though if you're Bitcoin fan
and or a bull, you want to see this low
pivot from Friday, June 5th hold guys.
You want to see that pivot hold. If it
holds, you got a chance to get yourself
back inside that blue parallel channel,
but I remind you folks on the weekly
time frame this head and shoulders
pattern is still valid and likely will
pull price down here to the sub $40,000
target at
uh 37,508.
I do have another level of support I'm
watching though cuz normally just as
I've said, whenever price does break
these parallels, major inclining trend
lines, they often time like to find
support, go back up and retest that
parallel from which it broke. That level
of support is right here $53,000.
And I'm going to give you a good piece
of education with this. This is
something I go through in mastering the
overnight trade, uh the sleeper hold.
It's one of my educational courses,
which by the way will be on sale this
weekend, guys. So, do yourself a favor
if you've been wanting to grab some of
our education coming this weekend. We're
likely going to have a nice big sale
available for you. So, stay tuned for
that. More details to come later this
week. But, notice when you look at the
chart like this here on Bitcoin, notice
how when price goes up, put in beautiful
consolidation, then put in a high pivot
right here, broke out, and continued
moving higher. But, what happened when
price came back down to that
consolidation? It got bounces on two
separate occasions. Usually when you
have price come from below, get
rejected, or at least pause, breaks out,
and comes down and retests that area and
gets a bounce, that's something I want
to pay attention to cuz you're likely
going to get another bounce if price
accelerates from a distance right down
into it, much like what occurred here on
the chart. So, if we go over here now to
current time, right here at 53,000, if
we continue seeing selling over the June
5th lows, expect a decent bounce if we
see a straight line straight down here
to the $53,000 mark. That could give us
enough energy to get back up here to the
bottom of the parallel at 64,000 884. Uh
next up into some other charts with
stocks. We got STX, guys. Look at this
topping tail foreshadowing the decline
in which we saw the last uh two trading
days. Now, with MU, it's starting to
buck that trend. But, guys, daily
topping tails should work this way. They
should at least. And you notice even the
following two and three trading days, we
were all trading even uh within this
candle and sometimes above it. If I flip
off this topping tail indicator that you
see here, you can see we were well
above, but we closed the day within that
topping tail, making that topping tail
still valid. Uh indicating again, like
we were due for some sort of profit
taking this week moving into both MU as
well as core PCE data reporting tomorrow
at 8:30 in the morning. Now, today with
MU, one of those uh levels of concern
out of the way, we can see people
starting to push STX, all these high
flying AI data center plays back
straight up on the market and we're back
up here right at the 1070 mark there on
STX. So, if we're going to continue
pushing up tomorrow, resistance will be
had right here at uh $1,153,
right at the top of this parallel
channel. I warn you though, we've now
hit it once, twice, three times, four
times. So, this next time is actually
about a 50/50 shot on breaking to go
higher. Interesting move going on there
on STX. Another topping tail indicator
highlighting the fact we were going to
be coming down on the chart of SNDK. So
far, that's only been 2 days as we see
SNDK now elevating back over $2,000 a
share. Notice how this inclining trend
line, somewhat mysterious, doesn't look
like it's connected to anything here,
but if I flip on the hourly time frame,
boom, you see it right there connected
perfectly to that pivot top, catching
the push and pierce of that trend line
before falling down, creating a daily
topping tail amongst the price action
from
back here on Monday. So, not that long
ago. So, we'll see tomorrow if we
actually do get up high enough to test
that topping tail, but first things
first, we do have some resistance that
will be here on this old close that
occurred here on June 18th, right at
$2,184.
Uh next up, NBIS. NBIS, look at this
what's starting to shape up here on this
chart. Very vertical nature moving up
higher, but we have a big left shoulder,
a head that's forming. No right shoulder
just yet, um but we noticed today we did
close in the bottom 50% area of this
parallel channel. Mainly, I'm watching
this to see if we get another close
tomorrow or any subsequent day and
staying steady under the 50% area of
this parallel beneath today's lows. Um
with the elevation pushing up right now,
doesn't look too likely that's going to
happen in the coming days, but at least
that's on the radar. Say we do have a
close underneath today's low in the near
term. Support will be on this inclining
trend line that you see here. Originates
all the way back here from February of
2025,
connected over to a pivot high in
October of 25, and right through this
price action that held price action
down, broke out, retraced, broke out
once again, and it likely if it does
come down here, will catch support on
that inclining trend line.
Uh lastly guys, into MU, as you see here
after hours, goodness gracious guys.
Now, notice too, intraday,
we've got an inclining parallel channel.
Price was underneath the bottom, uh it
was in the lower 50% of that parallel
channel, but look how it saved itself,
meaning it, the chart, it saved itself
by pushing it back above the 50% area of
that parallel channel, and it all really
occurred guys in the last 2 hours of
trading. Let me zoom in even closer. It
was really started at 3:10, because
again, at 3:00, we were headed lower on
this chart, making new intraday lows. of
a sudden guys, this has got to be some
sort of leak on the earnings. That's the
only thing explaining it. Who got the
news at 3:10, because they started
jamming the buy button, and man, what an
accelerating move. Totally deceitful in
my opinion guys, because that shouldn't
be happening in the markets. Certainly,
I know with social media electronics, we
can convey information much faster than
we have in the past, but that sort of
action, man, that's not that's not good.
That's not good for the markets. That's
not good for investors
to put faith in in these sort of systems
in which they release earnings like
this, and then everybody gets a big head
start amongst the rest of us investors.
That's That is some wild manipulation
there. Now, hey guys, I got a Now, if MU
continues moving up, now we're looking
at double tops as resistance, plus the
top end of this parallel channel, just
slightly above it tomorrow is going to
be at $1,230.
We'll see if we get above that after
hours today, or even pre-market tomorrow
morning. Now, briefly, let me just look
at Uber real quick. I've got a request
from Princess Libra V, and I hope you
are doing well, Princess. Thank you for
watching us here in Trading the Close. I
want to at least try to follow up with a
lot of the comments and requests. I
can't thank you guys for doing so as
well, following, participating. It
really means an awful lot to me. All
right, so let me pull up Uber on the
weekly time frame, and Princess was ask
asking about a potential head and
shoulders pattern that's developing on
this chart, and that is exactly correct.
However, on this right side, notice how
this is looking
more or less like sideways consolidation
on the weekly time frame. Weekly dampens
some of the noise, but you notice we
move down and really just kind of chop
sideways. We don't have a good right
shoulder that's cohesive or more or less
symmetrical like what's going on over on
this left shoulder. This is a little bit
cleaner. This one is more kind of
bearish consolidation trying to fight to
get back into the top end of this
inclining blue parallel channel. So,
near-term resistance to the upside, be
watching that level. Getting into the
top 50%, that's a $76.32.
Now, you can see I've kind of got a
wedge pattern. Now, if we were going to
Oops, let me if we were going to try to
draw this neckline, you can see here it
would likely would be
right in this area, right here, the
lowest low before we made a last attempt
at a shoulder. Notice we did close
underneath it one day, but that
highlights everything on the SMH chart.
One day doesn't do it, guys. One day is
a test candle. You need to see momentum
push that down lower, flipping this
area, which is support, into resistance.
With one candle down, the very next day
up, we have not yet fully broken the
neckline of this potential head and
shoulders, and as you see here, that
does have a target down here sub $35. If
we do break that neckline, the neckline
to watch next week, $70.87,
and it's just slightly beneath that this
week, $70.75. But draw that over,
connect that to that low pivot that's
right here on the week of March 23rd,
and that should help you a whole bunch
there, princess. All right. Uh guys,
thank you again so much for watching
Trading the Close. Don't forget to like
and subscribe. Send this out to your
friends and family so they too can learn
technical analysis on the charts. We'll
be back here tomorrow with another
Trading the Close. Can't wait for it.
Until then, have a great day, folks, and
I'll see you guys on the charts. Take
care.