Gold And Silver Continue Collapse, AI Attempts Bounce But Next Hard Sell Coming...

My name is Gareth Soloway and I was a
losing trader until I [music] mastered
technical analysis. Logic and charts
beat hype and narratives every time. Now
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Good morning everybody. Welcome to my
trading game plan. My name is Gareth
Soloway, chief market strategist here at
verifiedinvesting.com.
Now we have a lot to discuss today just
like always. Gold and silver are
continuing to crash lower. Oil is
hitting down towards $70 a barrel. The
stock market is getting a small bounce
today as last night the Kospi, the South
Korean stock market got a little bit of
a bounce as did the Nikkei. So a little
bit of a reprieve from the massive AI
sell-off that we saw yesterday. But the
warning signs continue to mount. Check
out this latest news. SK Hynix, which is
the biggest player in South Korea here,
they are going to be listing $29 billion
in shares, selling $29 billion in shares
on the US stock exchange on July 10th.
In other words, they're going to be
launching their ADR, which is advanced
depositary receipt. Now the reason this
is important and the reason why this
should scare investors in Micron is that
Micron is does exactly to a T what SK
Hynix does. SK Hynix is actually a
bigger company with bigger revenue than
Micron, but its valuation is less. Now
the reason it's less is because US
investors haven't gotten to invest in
it. So again, it's been over there. We
generally don't have access unless you
have access to international investment
markets. But when this this lands on the
index on July 10th, investors in the US
will have to say, "Okay, apples to
apples, Micron or SK Hynix? Oh, wait, SK
Hynix is at a better valuation."
Maybe some of those investors move over
and invest in SK Hynix. All right? So,
again, this is very intriguing because
we've already seen SpaceX come public
putting a ton of money out there and
needing to be absorbed by investors.
Now, we're going to have this SK Hynix
semiconductor IPO, throw in the fact
that we're still waiting on Anthropic
and Open AI, potentially Perplexity
later this year. And again, the flood of
equity selling to US investors just
increases. All right. So, again, that is
the big news that I have of the day, but
we're going to get into the charts here
and talk about lots of other things as
well. Here is the S&P futures. So, the
S&P futures not doing a whole lot, a
little bit of a bounce from yesterday's
close. This was yesterday's price
action. Obviously, the big fall occurred
in the overnight going into Monday
session, or I should say Tuesday's
session here. And again, you can see
that overnight we've kind of chopped
around for the most part with a little
bit of a gain on the S&P 500. Here's the
Nikkei. Nikkei got a minimal bounce
here, very small bounce to the upside.
The Kospi did bounce about 3 and 1/4%,
but after a 10% drop, that's a very,
very minimal bounce. Now, on the Kospi
here, the reason this is important is we
want to start watching, are we going to
make a bear flag? If we do, watch out
below. This has more downside to come.
And I do think it is coming, folks. And
again, you're seeing more and more
realization, and I covered this
yesterday in depth in this My Trading
Game Plan and even in Trading the Close
yesterday that I took. But, the key is
cheaper models out there for AI are
becoming more prevalent, and companies
are looking to cut costs by going with
cheaper models. That will signal a
essential chain reaction through chips,
through mem- memory chips, and even
through AI models, where the
hyperscalers now, how are they going to
recoup the cost of the hundreds of
billions in spend? How are again margins
going to stay high? The other thing I'd
like to mention to you is that with the
memory stocks, and this is fascinating,
and this is an alert, an early alert for
many of you guys out there. Everyone
thinks these memory stocks are golden,
right? But the problem is I'm now
hearing rumors that many companies like
Apple who had to raise their cost of the
iPhone, the the price that they're
charging all of us for their iPhone by
two, three hundred dollars, they're now
looking into producing their own memory
chips to offset that cost because they
can produce it at a much tinier price. I
mean, literally mar- memory can go for
pennies on the dollar compared to what
it's being being, you know, essentially
produced or sold for right now. You get
that scenario, and all of a sudden
there's a mass flood of memory chips out
there, and it data storage chips. So,
just heads-up, still not here yet, but
watch for announcements from megacaps.
They're not looking to spend these type
this type of money on memory. Just
memory alone, give me a break. They want
to spend it on chips, not on like like
Nvidia chips at least, not on memory.
That's going to be a major player here.
So, again, everyone now watching for
Micron earnings after the bell, but
let's go back to the S&P daily chart and
take a look at where we sit. Here we
have the big down day yesterday. We're
staging a small bounce on the morning
session here. Markets obviously have not
opened just yet, but they likely will.
Again, are we going to end up making a
lower high? I'm still unsure, but it's
looking more and more likely. We have
our V here and our V here. So, that's
low and a lower low. And we went over
this yesterday, but just to refresh as
we have new viewers every single day.
And then we have our high pivot, and
this may be a high pivot. We have our
mountain top, which is a high pivot.
Here's our mountain up. We're still
waiting for the move down here to
confirm the secondary mountain top that
would make lower highs. So, lower lows
and lower highs are looking more and
more prevalent, but still unconfirmed
here in the charts. All right. Uh Nasdaq
much the same. Again, great fall
yesterday down 3.3%.
You can see where the Nasdaq 100 is
trading just up a little bit right here
on the morning session as we continue to
follow things on the charts. Now,
another big event, and this is causing
the metals. And we're going to get into
the metals early today because this is
huge. The dollar is just ripping. Now,
the dollar, this is really important
here. The last bastion of the dollar
resistance, the highest potential before
you really have to say there's a
breakout in the dollar is this pivot
high. Look at the US dollar today
surging to the upside breaking above my
little zone here. The question is, can
it get through this 102 level on the
DXY? But I'll tell you, man, this is
this ever since the Fed came out and
showed that they at least initially have
a backbone uh that they're not going to
roll over and just cut rates, that
they're taking inflation seriously, that
has now created a scenario where
people are interested in the US dollar.
It gives confidence in the major global
reserve currency, at least for now. Now,
I'm going to be the first to tell you
that I don't expect that to last, but at
least for now, that's what's going on.
And we're seeing the US dollar gain
traction against other currencies. All
right. Uh now, a couple other things.
Before we get into the metals real
quick, guys, FedEx is getting smoked on
earnings. It It getting a little bounce
in the premarket, but look at the big
fall yesterday after hours. Daily chart,
look at this. Major trend line, we have
broken below that. This is where we're
trading pre-market just above 300. So,
that is number one. In terms of day
trading, my first level is going to be
around 290. Then, there's another level
at 285, but the big one I'm going to be
following for a swing trade, and those
first two were just day tradeable
levels, is this one right here at 270.
So, 270, that is a big level. Gap fill
right here, pierced of this pivot low.
That'll be a level that I watch, but
more importantly, a stock that was in a
subse- subsequent or consecutive
uptrend. Look, trend line hit, bounces.
Trend line hit, bounces, bounces. Again,
is now you're going to get a gap below
that, and that again is a warning sign
for FedEx. Now, listen, FedEx's earnings
were actually pretty good. The problem
was their guidance. It's always about
the guidance. Remember, earnings are
what happened last quarter, guidance is
what's happening this quarter. Does Does
the market and investors care about last
quarter? Not really.
They care about what's coming up.
Markets are always pricing in the
future. We always have to remember that.
All right. Other stocks here, guys,
CBRS. We talked about this one. This one
is getting tattooed to the downside. It
has rallied off the lows in the
overnight, but still down significantly.
This is a chip stock, and again, another
chip stock getting beaten up. What's
pretty remarkable here is the stock
IPO the IPO price for insiders was $185.
This opened and got above 300 on its
first day. Just in the overnight, it got
down to 193, meaning the insiders were
barely up on this position. It's getting
a little bit of a bounce here, but
again, look at how this performed, and I
I drew in this yesterday in trading the
close, this bear flag formation, and it
looks like it might even be breaking. If
this gets under 185, that would be
another major issue for the market.
Speaking of which, SpaceX,
again, yesterday pierced where it became
public for public investors for the for
the retail, it yesterday pierced it, but
they got it back above, but today it's
back down again. And remember, $135
is where all insiders were able to get
it. Retail that got lucky and got in the
lottery and got it, they Some Some
people got a few shares there as well,
not many, obviously, but my point is is
that this is not good a good look for
the IPO market. Like, if you're
Anthropic, if you're OpenAI, this is not
what you want to see. Where these stocks
are almost back to where it went into
insiders. So, again, does this make them
hesitate? I wouldn't think yet, but I
think they have to be thinking, "We need
to get these things public before things
turn even worse for the overall
markets." There's so much liquidity
stuck out there from, you know, again,
we just talked about SK Hynix coming
coming essentially public um with an
offering of $29
on July 10th. And by the way, that's not
a coincidence that they're rushing this
even before Anthropic or OpenAI. Just
like we saw Google raise $80 in in sales
of stock. I mean, this is all
coordinated because these players
recognize that the good times are almost
over. And if they don't get it out soon,
they're not going to be able to raise
capital at all. The markets are drying
up, folks. All right, and you saw that
yesterday with the sell-off in some of
these other players. Speaking of SK
Hynix, here it is trading over on the
the KOSPI.
Look at the run this thing has had, and
again, there's that big corrective move,
and yesterday it was up fractionally, up
about 1%
over there. Again, the question is, does
it start to build a bear flag, and is it
a liquidity dump on US investors when it
becomes public? The problem is that if
it is, then Micron's going to take an
even bigger hit because Micron, again,
is at a better is at a higher valuation.
SK Hynix, again, is a lower it's a
better valuation, lower PE than Micron.
So, if if SK Hynix comes down, what does
that tell you about Micron?
And by the way, the biggest customer for
both companies, Nvidia. So, again,
they're they're in the same group.
They're basically they literally make
the same sort of things, identical
identical companies. Um I SK Hynix is
just a little bit bigger. All right, so
um quickly Tesla here, guys, as we
continue to continue to monitor how
things are going here. Tesla, watch this
lower level uh right around 363. That
will be a longer-term technical support.
This is a wedge pattern, so watch to see
which way it breaks. It's obviously
still got a lot of room to maneuver, but
now let's turn our attention to gold.
Wow. I've been saying gold was going
back below 4,000. I said 3,900 is my
next technical level. I said it could
even get down to 3,500,
and here we are, 3,970
on gold. All right, so now you have
this down-sloping trend line potentially
getting broken, major support here at
3,900. That's this pivot low. If it
breaks this zone, it's going to this
3,500 3,600 level, folks. This is huge
on gold. All right, this is a massive
dump out on gold. The crazy thing about
it is it's still a retrace within a
bigger bull market, in my humble
opinion. So, I know, you know, people
always hate on me for being bearish on
gold when it was at 5,500 5,600, but
that was just the chart. And it doesn't
mean the long-term bull move isn't
intact. It's just euphoria. When you get
people so greedy that they buy gold
because they think they're going to
double their money overnight. I've been
in gold for a decade plus and it's not
like that. And people that have been in
it for 50 years, it's not like that. And
so, when you get the euphoria, the
euphoric investors have to be flushed
out. It's just the nature of the beast.
All right? It's not what I mean, when
you look at even just 100 years of gold
trading,
it's not a euphoric risk-on asset. It's
a safe haven asset. So, when it becomes
a euphoric risk-on asset, eventually
gold players have to be dumped out. It
has to go back to what it really is at
its essence. Then it can go back up. So,
that's where we are right now, folks.
It's flushing out weak hands. This is
for if you're someone like me that's
looking to buy gold down below 4,000,
this is fantastic. If you're someone who
bought at 5,500, yeah, it kind of
stinks, frankly, but I get that. Um but
ultimately, again, major support here.
Let's see if it holds or breaks. If it
breaks, 3,500. Now, look at silver. I
told you guys this was going to be
breaking down. $54 is my next technical
level. There it is. Look, hit support,
hit support, hit support. Look at how
each bounce, big bounce,
smaller bounce, tiny bounce, breakdown.
You can just see it it the chart was
telling us this. And again, I was
relaying this to you guys. $54 is your
next level. We're right We're trading at
58.40 right now. So, this is getting
darn close, guys. And my next level,
like I said, is 54. Then if it breaks
that, you're looking at a $50 even
number pierce. Once we get to 54 or
below, that's where I'm going to nibble.
People were laughing at me for not
buying when it was at 80, 90, 100, 120.
There was a reason. Because the charts
aren't always right,
but they give me probability. And if I
play 70% odds every time at the table,
I'm going to lose three times, but you
know what? I'm going to win the other
seven. And I'm just going to rinse and
repeat, rinse and repeat.
And again, patience pays. People were
going nuts about, "Oh, I got to jump on
board silver. I got to jump on board
gold." No, you don't. When you chase,
it's like people honestly that probably
are buying Micron at 11, 1200 over the
last couple days.
When you chase,
you end up fighting that trade for a
long period of time.
So, we'll see. We'll see how it goes,
but this is incredible drop on silver. I
still think there's another $4 at
minimum to go to the downside on this
breakdown, and we will watch and see.
Now, oil. Look at oil here. That's the
10-minute oil chart. Oil is nearing my
first support at $70 here, all right?
And then gap fill at 67 and change. This
is a big level here. Now, if if if oil
breaks below 67, that would tell me
something about the US economy. If that
happens, that would be very, very scary
on an economic front. Very scary.
All right? Now, here, yeah, I mean,
inevitably you fill gaps. So, we it
could easily go down into this range.
But again, I'm I'm going to I'm starting
to accumulate oil down here, just very
small, little bit, little bit, just
buying just for a swing trade. I do
think the US economy will head into
recession at some point over the next
year or so. Um again, especially if we
see these lower-priced AI models.
Remember, my humble opinion is that the
only reason you don't have the whole US
economy in recession. By the way, I'm a
believer that 80% of the US is in
recession. But the other 20 is heavily
in stocks, making money hand over fist
with these all-time highs and these
runs, right? But if you look at
what's driving the US economy, it's the
CapEx from AI, and inevitably that looks
like it might start to slow down now.
And if that slows down,
and government spending potentially
doesn't increase, and that's the big
wild card, right? The government
spending. But eventually, we all know
that can't go on forever, either. But if
again, that CapEx slows down, this
market and oil even is going a lot
lower. But I still think you get a
bounce first and I'll play the swing
trade on the bounce. Natural gas today,
let's look at that. Daily chart here.
Basically flat, still nothing new to
report on this chart. And of course,
Bitcoin continues to inch lower. Now,
it's still holding double bottom.
But again, this is not the price action
that you want to see. You almost have
this little mini head and shoulders
pattern here as well, which could denote
further downside. So again, I'll keep an
eye on this, but remember, we have a
line in the sand. If you confirm below
this 60,000 level, you're likely headed
to 50,000. That's just what it is. As
long as you hold it, yeah, we could
bounce up a little bit more. I mean, we
could go back to 70, 73, 75. It's always
a possibility. But again, breaks and
violates with confirmation this level at
60, trouble is there. All right, guys.
Wow, what a day. I hope you guys learned
something. That that SK Hynix news I
thought was fascinating, how they're
bringing to to public essentially that
here in the US as an ADR. Um incredible
stuff. I'm going to get going. I got to
get to my trading room, guys. Remember,
trading room, we're going to be day
trading this market today all day long.
You can get day passes, you can get week
passes, you can get monthly's. Whatever
you want. You have an off day, come join
us in there. Just the education alone
from me on a microphone all day, from
our traders talking through trades. It
is incredible. So, check it out, folks,
at the uh live day trading room at
verifiedinvesting.com
and I'll see you soon. Take care.