Epic: Iran Deal Inked Early To Take Focus Off Hawkish Fed, Markets Rally

My name is Gareth Soloway and I was a
losing trader until I mastered technical
[music] analysis. Logic and charts beat
hype and narratives every time. Now I
teach investors the same techniques that
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Good morning everybody. Welcome to my
trading game plan. My name is Gareth
Soloway, chief market strategist here at
verifiedinvesting.com.
Now action-packed morning already. It
started yesterday with the Federal
Reserve. We saw a much more hawkish
Kevin Worsh than the markets had
anticipated. Many more of the Fed
governors voting for rate hikes this
year than had been expected. The markets
fell sharply yesterday afternoon. This
was incredible, folks. So again, the
markets dumping out to the point where
the NASDAQ ended down sharply about 1.5
to 2% on the day. The S&P down about
1.5% as well. But this was the kicker.
We know the president does not like the
markets going down. So what does he do?
There was supposed to be a signing
between the US and Iran of this deal on
Friday. He bumped it up to yesterday
after hours. The deal got signed. Oil
came down and the markets are lifting
today. Taking away. He is a master of
distraction of getting people that were
focused on the Fed and the Fed lack of
decision and being hawkish onto
something else. And that's what he's
done. And today, what are we seeing? AI
stocks are moving up. Guess what came
out in the morning as well. A deal
officially announced between Apple and
Intel. We know the government, right,
the government owns a big stake in
Intel. So, do we think this was already
a deal that had been done or was pushed
out because of the negative reaction to
the Federal Reserve? I mean, these
things, you can't make this stuff up,
guys. This is incredible to be witness
to how the markets are being
manipulated. with news stories and
distraction and various other things to
get the market's focus off of the
negative to the positive. All right,
let's get into the charts and see what
we have here. Here is the ES futures,
the S&P futures. This was yesterday's
massive collapse on the futures on the
back of the Federal Reserve commentary
and the Kevin Worsh press conference. So
again, big drop and then you could see
right away after hours, markets went
right back up and as we heard about the
Iran US deal signing early that was
done. Then we got news about Intel and
Apple and the deal being inked and
beautiful move. Now we're just chopping.
But look, we've essentially erased the
entire negative from the Fed decision.
Now, what's even more fascinating about
this is just in the last 6 weeks, the
news kind of rumor mill let us know
about an Apple and Intel deal. So, Intel
rallied 10% when it was a rumor. Then, a
secondary rumor came out a couple weeks
later and Intel went up another 10%.
Now, the deal is final and Intel's going
up another 10%. And so, it's using the
same news. And we saw this playbook with
Iran and the US. Think about how many
times the president came out and said,
"We're really close to a deal." And what
did the markets do? Every single time
they rallied to the upside. And so this
is a playbook that they're just going
back to. I don't blame them. Frankly, it
works. Just give the news as a rumor,
give it again as a rumor, and then give
it officially as done deal. And every
time you get a step up in the markets,
it's absolutely incredible. All right,
so we're going to keep our eyes on
things here as we continue to focus on
the markets. We do have software stocks
that are under pressure again today. But
before we get to all of these different
movements here, let's take a look at the
S&P daily chart. Do we have a lower high
now? All right, we got the down the
small down day two days ago. Yesterday,
we got the big down day and we filled a
key gap. I wanted to see one more down
day today to solidify it. So, I'm a
little hesitant. I want to see where the
markets go today. Remember, today is the
last trading day of the week. It's also
triple witching options expiration for
the quarter. So, kind of some weird
stuff going on here, but I want to see
where the markets end today. I would
have preferred three down days in a row,
which are like an exclamation point on
that high pivot to really come out and
say, okay, we have a we have lower lows,
which we already had, right? So, if we
go to the chart here, you can see very
crystal clear low and lower low. Here's
your high. And yes, but if we end up
right back here today, was that just I
mean, was that just a little blip on the
screen or was it more like this? This is
what we want to see. We want to see a
protracted or a longer multiple down day
move in a row to really solidify a lower
high versus just really a pause day and
one down day right there. So, I will be
monitoring this. I will keep you posted
as always, guys, as the markets continue
to trade. All right, but again on watch.
We have to see how the markets end
today. Volume probably starts to lighten
up this afternoon until the options are
taken care of later. Um, that generally
is a neutral deposit bias. Plus, the AI
stocks on the Intel news are just
continuing to ramp. Speaking of Intel,
here we go. Let's take a look. Intel. Uh
if we bring up the chart, you can see
Intel today gapping up beautifully as
that news in the overnight hit the stock
that they had an official deal with
Apple. And again, really the third time
we've heard about it, but every single
time the stock goes up. Now, one of the
things I am watching here, guys, I have
this here. And you might say, "Wow, this
trend line is weird, right? This trend
line is super weird, right? Uh like
where does that trend line come from?"
Check over here. Click the L button for
logarithmic. That's what I'm watching.
Look at how when you go to logarithmic,
this trend line is just a thing of
beauty. Remember, when you have charts
that go parabolic, you got to flip to
logarithmic because again, you can't go
back and, you know, like when you're
analyzing a crypto small cap or or one
of these other things, you have to flip
over. So on these semiconductors, a lot
of them you have to look at
logarithmically to go back 10 or 15
years. But look at that trend line right
here. I'm really watching this 136 level
on Intel. Right now, we're trading below
131, but watch that level closely. Now,
if we flip over to Apple, let's take a
look at Apple here. We'll take away the
logarithmic aspect on an intraday basis.
Apple's not doing much. You can see it
had a little pop after hours yesterday,
but just kind of sideways. And the main
point here is that this deal is much of
a this is much bigger for Intel. Plus,
Intel's the chip AI player, so it's
going to get a bigger reaction versus
Apple's, you know, $ four and a half
trillion dollars. It's kind of old
school uh at this point. Um more of a,
you know, safe haven asset than anything
else at this stage. All right, what else
do we have? Well, we do want to take a
look at the uh 10-year yield. So, of
course, 10-year yield is coming down
today. Why would the 10-year yield be
pulling back after the pop yesterday on
the Federal Reserve? All you have to do
is go here, and oil is down again. And
so oil still having an impact on the
10-year yield. Oil is trading around $74
a barrel. Major gap fill right here. But
again, that deal between Iran and the US
signed early to save the markets. Again,
if they had waited till Friday, the
markets weren't open on Friday. That
didn't make sense. We know that the
president wants the best bang for his
buck when it comes to pushing the stock
market higher and higher and higher,
building that bubble bigger and bigger
and bigger. And so it made sense to rush
that signing, do an electronic signature
type thing after hours yesterday once he
saw the reaction from the Federal
Reserve announcement and press
conference. I mean, this is just epic
stuff. Absolutely incredible stuff to
witness firsthand. All right, so let's
go to some other charts here. So, while
we have the AI stocks having big moves,
I mean, take a look at STX. STX is up at
new all-time highs again today. WDC up
again as well at new all-time highs as
well. So, you can see again these
stocks, Micron is basically at an
all-time high just underneath, 1100.
There's a little trend line I'm going to
be watching here on an intraday basis.
high pivot to high pivot right here
around 11:25 or so if it pushes up
there. But the bottom line is software
continues to be the negative right now.
It's not that software to me this is
more of a money rotation. No one wants
to be in software right now. They all
want to pile in AI chip stocks
especially after the Intel news even
though we heard the Intel news multiple
times over the last couple months. But
take a look at this guys. Now these
actually have my attention. IBM. So we
had support here. It bounced off there.
Now it's coming down. But look at this
pre-market on IBM. IBM is down sharply.
Software related, right? Data center
related. Big drop to the downside here.
All right. Then we look at Microsoft.
Microsoft's even it is bouncing back
here. I mean, this is actually a good
move on Microsoft off of the lows. But I
mean, this is pretty incredible that the
stock here is even as weak as it is.
Tons of support down here. Man, if this
gets down to 7373 or so, just a massive
amount of technical support. But this is
this is again this is you're witnessing
the IGV, which is the the software. It
is at support here, but again, the
weakness is palpable when you compare it
to these semiconductor stocks. Now, for
me, I'm always a contrarian, right? I
can't help it. Is that when you're in
extremes on AI stocks, I'm not buying
STX up here. I'm not buying Micron up
here. I'm not, you know, none of that
stuff. But I'm looking and saying, you
know, software seems like everyone's way
too negative on software. Maybe there's
a bounce on a quality name like
Microsoft or IBM or some of these other
players. And so, generally, that's where
I turn my attention to. I hate chasing,
but when everyone else hates something,
I'm going to start to like it a little
bit more, assuming the fundamentals and
technicals align well. All right, let's
continue on here, guys. As we continue
through, I'm watching Caterpillar, which
is basically acting like an AI stock
because of the buildout of these data
centers. Um, you can see here there's a
trend line here on this just above a
thousand. It's not there yet, but I love
that as a swing trade level on this. All
right. Really, really, really good level
here on uh Caterpillar. I doubt it hits
today, but if it does, this would be I
mean, look, look at the pullbacks you
get every single time. I mean, we're
talking 10, 15, 20% draw downs on the
stock. Netflix is on my radar as well
here, guys. Okay. Um, this one here, as
we can see, beautiful little pivot low
coming into play. Potential double
bottom. That looks really interesting to
me as a potential buy right around $75 a
share. Now, China stocks, Alibaba down
again today, but coming into a gap fill
double bottom at 104, trading at 10665.
This is on my radar for a swing trade
long as well. Look at the oversold
nature. The RSI will be near 20 today,
which is extreme oversold. Things like
this getting my attention when you have
the technical levels to back them up.
All right, next up, we look at gold
here. Gold today is flattish on the day.
It did pop overnight with risk assets
and it's come right back in. So again,
that's intriguing. I did pick up a short
on gold about a day and a half ago right
up here based on the fact that I did
think gold was going to head lower and
I'm still looking. I created this new
wedge pattern. Look at this beautiful
pivot point right here. You have a high
pivot, low pivot, low pivot, and low
pivot. So this is a chart that I'm going
to continue to monitor in relation to
gold. Silver. Looking at silver.
Silver's down again today. And again,
this is a little unusual and I'll tell
you why is that, you know, we've seen
the precious metals move with risk
assets. So if the stock, if the NASDAQ's
up, generally gold has gone up, silver
has gone up. Yesterday the NASDAQ went
down, both silver and gold dumped. So
that's exactly what you would expect.
But today, the NASDAQ's having a big
bounce and gold and silver are down. A
little bit of a caveat here to keep an
eye on. And so just something I want to
kind of keep our keep our heads or wrap
our heads around just to monitor to see
what ends up happening. Speaking of
gold, the dollar is part partially the
culprit here. The dollar is rallying
further. We're still inside of this
major resistance level, but the stronger
the dollar, obviously metals are
denominated in terms of dollars. It does
make sense for with the dollar strength
for the metals to be coming in just a
little bit. All right. Uh we looked at
oil already. natural gas not doing
anything of intrigue to me. So again,
just to show the chart real quick, just
continuing to monitor it, but again with
nothing exciting here. And then if we
flip over to Coinbase or not to Bitcoin
on Coinbase here, we can see again
Bitcoin is basically flat. It had a
pullback. This is really important on
Bitcoin. If we look at this right here,
there's a major support level right
around 63,700.
You can see how it's hammering these
last couple days. This was you had your
green bar reversal, your three inside
bars, then your breakout. We're now to
the scene of the crime. Bitcoin needs to
hold this 635 to 637 level on a daily
closing basis. That is paramount to the
bullish bias being maintained on
Bitcoin. All right, so again, lots to go
over. Amazing stuff, folks. Again, when
I look at the news and the, you know,
how fast they got this signing done just
because the market dumped yesterday on
the Federal Reserve, then you throw in
the governmentowned Intel news to really
bolster the chip stocks. I mean, think
about that. We're coming into a
three-day weekend. Nasty selloff
yesterday. Today's the last trading day
of the the the week going into this
holiday weekend.
President Trump sitting there saying,
"I'm not letting the markets go down.
I'm going to release this Intel Apple
news that'll juice the chip stocks.
Okay, then we got the chips up. If the
chips go up, the market goes up, we'll
throw in the Iran signing just extra
bonus here. Get those markets up. The
question is, as the bubble expands, when
does it collapse? That's what I'm
watching for. That's why we're watching
these higher lows or higher highs on the
S&P 500 chart. You guys are rock stars.
Thank you so much for being with me on
this wild journey. Thank you for
supporting Verified Investing. I'll see
you soon. Take care.