Investor Alert: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh RISKS, Charts Remain At Cliffs Edge

My name is Gareth Soloway and I was a
losing trader until I [music] mastered
technical analysis. Logic and charts
beat hype and narratives every time. Now
I teach investors the same techniques
that made me a multi-millionaire. This
is my trading game plan.
Hey folks, welcome to my trading game
plan. My name is Gareth Soloway, chief
market strategist here at
verifiedinvesting.com.
Today is a huge day. It is the Fed
decision at 2:00 p.m. We'll hear from
the Fed. No rate change is expected. The
key is going to be how many on the Fed
board vote to raise rates versus not
raise rates or even lower rates. And
again, that will give us a sense of how
hawkish or dovish the general Federal
Reserve is. Now, after that at 2:30, we
have the Kevin Warsh first press
conference. Now, what's interesting
about Kevin Warsh is that he's always
been anti-communication.
And so he doesn't like the press
conferences. He doesn't like the dot
plot that the Fed generally has
released. And it's very likely in
today's press conference, he may say,
"Hey guys, we're not going to do press
conferences anymore after Fed decisions.
We're not going to do dot plots. We're
going to communicate a lot less to the
general public." Now, what's going to be
interesting is how the market responds
to that. So obviously, I'll be watching
to see. I want to see is he hawkish? Is
he dovish? Is he kind of walking the
line in between? We've got oil down to
about $77 a barrel. So that does take a
little pressure off the inflation side.
But what we do know is that even before
oil spiked up on the Iran-US war,
inflation was already pushing back up
and never got back to the 2% level that
the Fed has always said it wanted. All
right, let's get into the charts here
today. We're going to start out with the
ES futures. This is the S&P futures.
This was yesterday. We had a massive
sell-off yesterday in the markets.
Overnight we bounced back a little bit,
but this morning we've been kind of
fading again. We're still net positive
on the S&P, but quite a fade this
morning from the overnight highs. And
again, you can see from there all the
way down as markets again will be
opening slightly positive. Now for me, I
continue to be glued, and I mean glued,
to the daily S&P chart. The reason why
this one is so important is that I am
watching the breadcrumbs. I'm watching
the technicals here to find out do we
get a lower high in the market or a
higher high? A higher high still means
that the markets can grind higher
overall. It just means because we made a
lower low, it's a weaker grind. It's
kind of stage one of a potential market
weakness signal. But if we were to get
not only the lower low, which is what we
have, but also a lower high, then you
basically have a change in trend in the
S&P 500. So, really what we have here,
and I've went over this each every day
since we did it, we have a lower low,
and right now we have a lower low with a
pullback day yesterday, but one down day
does not make a pivot top, right? We
wouldn't look and say, "Oh, this is a
pivot top." Now, if we pulled back here,
yes, now you have a very clear up move,
down move, that is a pivot top. But
right now we have to watch and see what
happens over the coming days. Are we
going to continue to push up and make a
higher high or do we stall out and start
to come in, solidifying a cycle
potential top in the S&P 500? So again,
that is the number one thing I am
watching on a daily basis. The S&P will
be my indicator here. Now, there is
another indicator with the biggest, most
powerful sector in the markets, the AI
semiconductor trade. Now, if we look at
this and we go to the SOXX and we go to
our weekly chart, we can very clearly
see we had a weekly topping tail. Now,
topping tails are noted by it must be at
a recent major high, which when this
candle formed it was. I mean, it
literally was all-time highs, so there's
no other point that high. It has to be a
long wick on top with a close in the
lower 25% of the candle. In this case,
it basically closed at the exact lows.
So, this fits the criteria in technical
analysis for a topping tail. Now, how
are topping tails negated? Cuz that's
important, right? Well, if you get any
candle that closes on that timeframe
above the wick high, so the high right
here, then it would negate the power of
this bearish reversal signal. Now, what
What's interesting here is we started
the week with a gap above it, but we've
already fallen back below. Granted,
we're we're moving higher today in the
pre-market, but we continue to watch
this level. It's right around 620 on the
So, watch that closely. Remember, this
is only a four-day
week, so we only have tomorrow for this
candle to either negate the top signal,
the the reversal bearish signal on the
the semiconductors, or leave it intact,
which would continue to say there's a
chance for a reversal sell in the
semiconductors. And as we know, the
semiconductors are the market, right?
When you have 15 of the top
semiconductors making up 40% of the
market cap of the entire US stock
market, that's basically the entire
market at this point. Now, just to show
you a good example of this, go to your
silver chart. Let's go bring up the
silver chart here, and I'm going to
bring up one without all my levels, cuz
we'll look at all that later on, right?
But if we go here and we bring up silver
I don't like that one. Let's flip over
to a different one right here. We can
even go to the SLV in fact. Let's go to
the SLV chart here cuz it had it on
there as well. You can see right over
here
here was a topping tail. It was all-time
high, so it was a recent high. We closed
here, which is very close to the low. It
was in the bottom 25% of the candle. And
notice how we went up the next day. We
went up the next day and we even opened
above the topping tail high this day,
but look, we closed back below it. And
so this bearish signal stayed intact and
we ended up selling off massively from
this high on the SLV at about 110 all
the way down literally 1 day later we
hit 69 on the SLV a 40-point sell-off on
SLV on this on gold on silver it was we
got to about 120 and we sold off to I
think about $80 or so per ounce. But the
point is this is what we're watching
just on the SOXX at this time. All
right, flipping over to the 10-year
yield. The 10-year yield continues to
hold steady. The reason why we want to
pay attention to the 10-year yield is
number one, it's interest rates.
So regardless of if the Fed lowers,
raises or does nothing,
you will see interest rates on the
10-year move. Remember, the Fed controls
the short end. So the very short-term
interest rates, that's the one the Fed
controls. They don't control the
10-year. They don't control the 20-year.
They don't control the 30-year, which is
what mortgage rates, right? Mortgage
rates are generally based off the longer
duration bonds. So what we're watching
here is when Kevin Warsh gives his press
conference today, where do interest
rates go? And what I'll be focusing in
on is do we break below this yellow line
to the downside? That would mean that
interest rates are likely going to come
down even more or if we hold this, this
is still a bullish breakout holding
technical support. If we start to move
up, that again could spook the markets.
So, the markets will watch very closely.
I think the markets want to hear that
and I'm sure Kevin Warsh is going to do
this, but the markets want to hear that
he's going to be vigilant on inflation,
but they don't want him too hawkish or
dovish. They kind of want him a
lukewarm, like just right. The porridge
is just right. Okay, so that to me is
very important, but they do want to hear
markets bond markets want to hear that
he's going to fight inflation. Whether
he is or not, we'll find out. I mean,
right now inflation's sky high, but
they'll probably call it somewhat
transitory because of oil, but I would
point out again like I did at the
beginning that even before we saw this
run up on oil, inflation was already
starting to go back up. So, it's there.
There's no doubt about it. All right.
The dollar today is also on watch
because of Kevin Warsh and the Fed.
Very clear resistance zone right here on
the dollar. We keep on tagging the
underbelly around 100, but not breaking
through. I do worry that this is a
bigger bear flag that the dollar is
setting up to have a breakdown. I think
it might have one more attempt to break
out to the upside, but if it doesn't,
watch out below. Next up, SpaceX. SpaceX
here had another decent day yesterday,
but it did close in the lower portions
of the chart, right? So, again, it was
as high yesterday as around 225 closing
back at around 202. It's back to about
210 today, but again, today will be day
number three. All right, remember,
once you hit five days above $175
on a closing basis, five out of 10 days.
So, it only has to be five out of 10.
So, it could literally come back below
for a few days here. So far, today would
be number three in a row, um three for
three. But once you get five out of 10
days above 175, a portion of insider
shares are unlocked and they can start
selling. Then more shares get unlocked
at the at the next earnings call and so
on and so forth until I think about 180
days from now they're all unlocked. And
remember, only 70 billion, I mean it was
a huge amount. I mean I say only 70
billion, 70 billion is still still
monstrous. But 70 billion of 2.7 2.8
trillion dollars is what's available to
be bought or sold.
There is so much shares that can be
unloaded over the course of the next
year. So yes, this is a low float push
up on it, but I do want caution here
because insiders, there are going to be
insiders. I mean there's people that are
like, you know, the janitors that are
millionaires now, the the the the
cafeteria crew. I mean there are going
to be people that are going to say,
"Hey, when my lockup is done, I'm
cashing out at least 50% of my shares."
There's no doubt about that. All right.
So again, I'm going to continue to watch
this. I would continue Yesterday we
actually day traded this on the short
side a couple times and made great money
in our live day trading room on it. If
we push up to about 225, I probably
would day trade it again, but obviously
I'll watch it on an intraday basis. I
did want to look at Tesla today because
Tesla's obviously Elon Musk's other
company. Right now Tesla's looking to
open slightly lower today. And really
what you have here is you just have a
bigger wedge pattern. Wedge patterns,
remember, they condense price so it gets
tighter and tighter and tighter and
tighter until it breaks one way or the
other. Right now we still have some room
on both sides, but eventually when this
makes a bigger move, we're going to
watch to see does it break here? If it
does, it probably goes up to all-time
highs. On the other side, if it breaks
here, you probably get a very
significant move to the downside. And we
saw this on oil, right? I mean if we
bring up the oil chart, remember we had
our wedge pattern here that I was
monitoring with you guys. We had a
classic wedge right here, down sloping
wedge right there. And when we broke
out, look at how oil has just collapsed
sharply to the downside. So a lot of
precedents for when wedges break, the
direction they break, there's usually a
very very significant move in that
direction. So just some educational
tidbits there for us all. Now, another
stock I'm keeping on my radar is
Netflix. Netflix filled the gap
yesterday. This has been so so weak. I
mean just no one wants to be in Netflix
anymore. I mean the AI trade is so much
sexier, right? But I will say this, you
filled the gap and you got double bottom
coming up. So again, this continues
down, there's going to be a swing trade
opportunity here and it is on watch now.
Anything between 73 and 75, I think is
very very interesting.
The IGV. The IGV is the tech software
sector. Remember, software stocks have
been under incredible pressure,
incredible pressure. Um no one wants to
be in them. They had the great rally
recently, now they've come all the way
back in. Not all the way to the lows,
but I actually like this. This is along
the lines I gave you guys Microsoft the
other day at the major support. IGV,
same sort of thing. I think again,
there's an opportunity. At some point
these semis see some selling and money
doesn't rotate out of the stock market
unless we're in a massive bear market at
the end of the cycle of bear. Because
otherwise, the hedge fund managers, they
can't risk being in cash. They don't
make any money in cash. They have to be
invested. So they're always going to try
to look to see, well, where can I put my
money and still make some money for
myself, for my firm, etc. And so in
general, in the beginnings when you're
topping out in one sector and even if
the markets are topping out, money
doesn't leave the market, it just
rotates. And I do think again, you came
back into some really good technical
zones here on the IGV. Um it is opening
lower today. There's a gap fill right
around this area here. So, it'll be
interesting to see if it breaks here,
that would be a little concerning around
the 8860 level. But again, I still think
there's probably a bounce here in the
software names coming up soon. All
right, we looked at oil already guys.
Oil has come down. Anything below 75, I
am going to stop start to inch in. Um,
it's interesting cuz oil's bouncing off
the lows. It did pierce $75 overnight.
Got to 7409 on WTI.
Uh, as the 14-point plan is being
revealed or leaked, um, the president's
getting a lot of pushback. I mean,
there's some really sweet deals here. I
mean, sanctions relief, uh, ability to
sell oil, $300 that'll be unlocked for
Iran for reconstruction. I mean, it is a
sweet deal here for Iran. And obviously,
the president's getting some flak on
that uh, for making it such a great deal
just to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Um,
again, looks to me and again, I have to
look more into this. Some of you guys
may know more on the deal. But, the
negotiations on their nuclear program
are going to be over the next 60 days
even. It's not even a done deal with the
nuclear side of things. But either way,
I do think there's a risk that oil could
bounce back up. That's one of the
reasons why I'm intrigued by a buy below
$75 per barrel on WTI because I would
not be shocked if in the next 60 days or
even at with this agreement, if things
fall apart at some point. Um, because
again, I don't necessarily know if Iran
is super motivated to make any of these
deals at this point. All right, so
again, just something to keep an eye on.
Gold flat on the day is had a great
bounce off the $4100 support. Again, we
talked about the next level of
resistance on gold is from this trend
line straight down connecting high pivot
to high pivot. So, there could be a
little bit more upside in gold here. But
gold is running out of energy unless it
can break through this 4400-4450
zone on the chart. So, keep an eye on
that. Silver here today, uh silver if we
look at this, we looked at that topping
tail, but let's actually go to the
silver chart with my levels on it. There
we go. Silver, same thing, still has
maybe a little bit more upside to about
7350, then I expect it to roll over and
eventually break this support heading
down to $54
per oz. Now, once we get below 50 if we
get below 50, I should say, I will be a
buyer pretty heavily on silver.
Obviously, still dollar cost averaging,
but once we get to 50, which I still
think is going to happen, unfortunately,
for those of us that are bulls long
Listen, I'm a bull long-term on the
precious metals. I don't I don't
understand how anyone couldn't be when
you look at the government spending and
the recklessness of of the fiat
currencies and all this stuff, but it
doesn't mean in the near term we still
can't have flushes out as we've seen
from the $120 highs. I mean, think about
all those narratives that were being
spun about, you know, oh, there's not
enough silver. I mean, oh, it's all
paper and it's not backed up. Oh, China
cutting off. And that was right at the
$120 highs on silver. Um it shows you
how when the narratives get ultra
bullish, it's usually the end of a move.
The buy point is when everyone else gets
gets bearish, right? When everyone's
bullish, you dump. When everyone's
bearish, you usually grind back in to
positions. And that's exactly true here
for silver. Um natural gas coming in had
a little bit of a bounce yesterday. I
continue to sit on the sidelines of
this. I don't see anything yet that is
getting my attention. Again, maybe that
little cup and handle, but nothing
significant. And then Bitcoin, small
pullback the last couple days after a
pretty impressive rally uh from 69
59,000 all the way back to 67. A retrace
back to this level is likely around
64,000 to 64,500.
Then you want to see that level hold if
you're continuing to stay bullish for a
bigger move up, potentially to about
75,000.
All right, so to rehash, guys, the big
event today, the Federal Reserve
announcement with the Kevin Warsh
first-ever press conference. I will be
glued to it. I'm sure many of us out
there will. Obviously, we will keep you
posted. Trading the close later today at
4:20, we'll go over everything the Fed
said and what the market reaction was.
And as always, folks, it's all charts,
no BS here at Verified Investing. What
are the probabilities? What are the
technicals telling us? That's how we
roll. You guys have a great one. Thanks
so much for being supporters of Verified
Investing. We'll talk to you soon. Take
care.