LIVE: SpaceX IPO | First Trade, Price Targets & Real-Time Analysis for $SPCX

All right, everyone. So, uh, right now
watching, uh, SpaceX and getting ready
for the IPO, which I'm going to be
streaming for. Uh, right now we're
showing a quote of 70 a share as you can
see in the top right corner of my
window. Um it's the the p the trading
has not begun but currently the markets
are able you can send orders and place
orders limit orders and so the market is
receiving those orders and creating
essentially an imbalance. So, even
though the IPO price is uh 135,
$135 a share, we're clearly showing an
indication that it's going to open
significantly above that price, which uh
was kind of the expectation. That's
typically what happens with IPOs,
especially ones that are hyped up like
this. And typically, the only people
that are getting in at the IPO price are
institutional investors. Now, of course,
many institutional investors were have
already been in many of these um IPOs
long before they came to the public
markets. SpaceX has already done 20
rounds of financing. So, they've got a
lot of insiders that are invested at
much lower prices. In fact, today they
will have without a doubt the highest
unrealized
profit on their positions. But most
insiders are not able to sell today. And
that's important. That's an important
dynamic. They can't sell because there's
a lockup period. And so the um there's a
schedule that that I've gone over in
other episodes um where the shares will
get released and within the next 6
months about 7.5 billion shares will be
eligible to
get sold on the market, the open market.
Now whether or not those shares uh get
sold will depend on the people that hold
them. But as of right now, those 7.5
billion shares are in a lockup period.
So they cannot sell even if they wanted
to. And that's important because right
now with the price opening or showing an
open of $168.75
a share right right now on this quote,
um they would be sitting at a obscene
profit. And so, uh, currently the quotes
are fluctuating, um, and different
market data vendors may even, uh, show
different, um, different floats than
what we've got here. So, uh, just for
what it's worth, um, my plan today
in terms of how to trade this, um, so a
couple things. Number one, I did get
shares assigned to me um through, as you
can see, um my uh Charles Schwab
accounts. So, three different accounts.
I put in the request for each of them,
not knowing exactly how the request
would work, if they would give me shares
on one account and not on the other. So,
uh, I've got a total of 147 shares that
were allocated to me, uh, through the
early IPO, um, request process at
Schwab. And so, the 147 shares are all
at $135 a share. All right. So, I'm not
really So, number one, um, I can sell
those today if I want to. Um, I could
sell them any time. Schwab does not
prohibit what's called flipping. Some
brokers will not give you shares of an
IPO in the future if you flip shares
right after you buy it. So, I believe
Fidelity is asking um everyone to hold
for at least 15 days. So, not to sell
before 15 days. Robin Hood, I want to
say is 30 days, but just double check
that. Um, so different brokers have
different restrictions on flipping, but
Schwab is actually the only one that has
no restrictions on flipping. So you can
sell your shares if you want and they
won't penalize you for it. Now, I had
put in my request for 4,250
shares total and I only got 147 shares.
So, if I had gotten my full 4,000 share
order, uh, on the one hand, that would
have concerned me because it would have
told me that people are getting
everything they're asking for. Maybe
there's a lot more supply on this than
than I realized. Um, and I might be
quicker to sell it. Uh, but since I only
got 147, it's telling me that there's
quite a lot of demand.
Uh, and so maybe I shouldn't sell them
right away. Uh but in any case, I do
have those shares. So, full disclosure,
now I have a um a position already
established at 135, which um means I
would like to see the price go up. Well,
it looks like it's already going to open
um up nicely, so that's good. These hit
my account at about 935 or 940 this
morning. So, um now in my main account,
you can see I'm up $44,000. This is my
main day trading account. In this
account, the broker that I use did not
get any shares allocated to them for
this IPO. So, I had money that I had
previously transferred over to Schwab.
And so, the money over there I was able
to use for this IPO request, which is
good. Uh, but yeah, Lightseed, the
broker I use here, didn't have any um
allocation. So anyways, I day traded in
this account and I'm up $44,000.
Now this account right here at Lightseed
I funded this year or well I didn't
really fund it. It was um the remaining
balance from last year's profit. But if
we go into my broker statement, I
started 2026
with um $96,000 in my account as you can
see right here. So, I had $96,000 in the
account um at the beginning of the year.
As of um well, as of the end of uh June
or May, the account had a balance of
just over $1 million. So, I've already
10x the account uh this year. However,
as you know, this week has been really
good. So, as of today, let me just check
what my balance is. Let's see. So,
account summary. Um, so as of right now,
my balance is $1.35
million. $1,356,000.
So, I've got quite a bit of buying power
in my account, and I'm up $44,000 today.
If I wanted to take some risk, I could
use some of this $44,000 as a cushion to
take a trade on SpaceX. Uh maybe I'd be
willing to risk not more than half of
it, 20,000, something like that. So if I
was willing to take $20,000 of risk on
SpaceX, then at these current prices,
how many shares would I buy? Well, to be
honest, I can't even afford 10,000
shares at $170 a share. I've got $1.35
million in the account. So I could buy
some shares, but I can't even buy
10,000. So I could do 5,000 shares, and
that means I could hold $4 against me.
if I got in at 170 and it dropped to 166
before it comes back up. Uh but you know
that it's it's tough when you're talking
about trading higher priced stocks. Um
SpaceX is higher priced and in addition
to being higher priced, it's also got a
float of 555 million shares. So, you
know, it's it's not a lowflat stock. Um
yes, it will be volatile today. Okay,
traders are obviously very excited about
it, but this isn't the type of um stock
that I typically would trade. Now, this
week has been good because we've had a
lot of lowp price stocks that have had
nice momentum. Um will there be any
sympathy momentum tied in or related to
this um IPO? I'm not really sure about
that for today. um because typically we
wouldn't we wouldn't usually have
sympathy momentum on an IPO on that same
day. So um while it would be nice if we
do
uh I'm not I'm not sure if that will be
the case. But it is true that although
retail traders are excited about SpaceX,
maybe passive investors are the ones who
are really excited about it because of
its price um it it is unfortunately
going to price out a lot of traders. So
yeah, I'm I'm not totally sure um
whether or not I will end up being able
to um get any um any trades on this. I
might I might not feel confident with
it. And then even if I do, I don't know
how much I'll really be able to make
because my total um balance is
relatively small uh in my account
compared to what I would need to be able
to trade this aggressively.
So that's kind of where we're sitting
right now. Um we at at this point we
don't know exactly when trading will
begin. You can see that of course um I
have my chart up. It's empty for SpaceX.
The level two is showing quotes um but
um also is not you know it's not open
for trading yet. So at this point we're
we're just waiting. Um
let's see.
So and those of you guys who are um
tuning in here today, I'll give you a
reminder as always um about risk.
Trading as you know is risky. trading
IPOs is especially risky because IPOs
are ex can be extremely volatile. So, we
want to be thinking about that. It's not
worth ruining um your day uh your week
or your month on SpaceX. This is one
stock. There'll be many more
opportunities. In fact, for the majority
of my career, if I actually looked at
the total amount of profit I made
trading IPOs,
I would wager it's less than $150,000,
maybe 200,000. It represents a very
small percentage of my total profit. I
mean, there's only so many IPOs each day
or each, let al there's not even an IPO
every day. There's only so many IPOs
each week, each month, you know, each
year. They just don't happen that often.
It's not an everyday occurrence. And a
big hyped up IPO, you know, is also not
an everyday occurrence. So, um I'm going
to put up um some slides and we'll uh
we'll talk a little bit about some um
some other IPOs that we've seen in the
past while we kind of wait for um
trading to begin. I do have my scanners
up so if something else started to pop
up and look interesting we could maybe
get dialed in on that. But uh for the
time being let's just go through um some
of these other IPOs. So um so first of
all let's go I don't want to do full
screen because I don't want to lose or
miss um my quotes if this starts
trading. So I'll just go I'll just make
it like this. So these are some historic
IPOs. Um, if we go back to Rivian, uh,
Rivian right here, as you could see, IPO
price was $78 a share. Um, Robin Hood,
Coinbase, Door Dash, Airbnb, Facebook,
Meta, Google. Um, but if we look at
Airbnb for instance, Airbnb is was an
IPO that I traded on that day. And on
that day, it opened high. The IPO price
on Airbnb was $68 a share. and the stock
opened at $150.
So, it opened high just as SpaceX IPOs
at 135 and is showing 166. It's a high
open um you know, which is which is a
bullish um you know,
it shows bullish sentiment. So, anyways,
uh Airbnb opens, it dips, it rips up to
a high of like $170 a share, but by the
end of the day, it actually closed red.
It pulled back for a couple days,
rallied up for a couple weeks before it
started selling off and eventually ended
up coming down all the way down to about
$80 a share. It ended up being down over
50% from um the highs right here within,
you know, a year or two. Um Uber IPOed,
pops up, sells off, sells off the next
day, rallies back up, then kind of sells
off, comes down, ends up coming all the
way back down here to $15 a share, down
68% versus the IPO day. Door Dash,
yikes. This one IPOs it strong
initially, then sells off, rallies back
up, big pop, reverses. It ends up
lowering sort of hitting these lows
here. Um the lows were down 80% versus
the IPO day, which is not good either.
Robin Hood um down 82% versus the IPO
day. Although if we look at the chart on
Robin Hood uh today,
we can see that um the price um you know
has certainly um come up off the lows.
Let's see. Although it's still down from
the all-time high.
So there you go. So that's Robin Hood
today. So, you know, overall um a nice
recovery um but
um you know, but still um
wouldn't have been a good idea, in other
words, to be a buyer or an in a
long-term investor on day one. And I
think that's important to recognize. So,
let's see. Um and then we've got a
couple others here that we can look at.
So
then we've got Coinbase lost like 93% of
its value versus the IPO day, Rivian. So
you can kind of see a little bit of a
trend here. And um so you could ask
what's going to be different about
SpaceX.
Well, SpaceX um has a really strong cult
following because of Elon Musk. Um, so
that is that's a variable that is uh
maybe difficult to put an actual dollar
value on but is significant and
important not to underestimate.
Um, this year if we go back to the top
of some of these slide decks. So um, so
we know that for 2025 SpaceX had 18.7
billion of total revenue and produced a
loss of 4.94 billion. They have three
segments of the business. connectivity
which is Starlink. They did 11.4 billion
in revenue in in from Starlink which
represented 61% of their total gross and
it produced a profit of 4.41 41 billion
which was significant and that profit
essentially subsidized the losses in
space and AI as you can see right here
both of which generated revenue but um
operated at a loss and the losses were
actually accelerating as of Q1 uh 20 26
here. So that's also something to be
aware of. Um, as of right now, the IPO
price of $135 a share is 95 times um a
price to sales ratio based on 18 billion
of preIPO revenue as you can see right
here. Um, now if we talk about um
SpaceX, I think one of the things that
um we have to be aware of is this um
early lockup release period. So today
and in a lot of ways it feels like the
stock is set up to succeed. They're
selling 555 million shares which is a
relatively small it's less than 5% of
the total number of shares um issued for
the company. Um so it's a very small
percentage of the float that's being
sold right now. Um
they have um early inclusion in the
NASDAQ 100 starting on day 15. So, you
know, that is also um significant. It's
going to give additional buying support
because any time an investor or an
institution is buying shares of that
ETF, by default, they're getting a small
sliver of SpaceX. So, that's going to
create consistent buying support. It'll
create a one-time event as the ETF
rebalances and um SpaceX comes in and
then it'll create continued buying
support. Now, that buying support isn't
enough to support 7.5 billion shares
being sold into the open market. You
still will need demand um in order to
hold up those prices in spite of what we
expect will be sellers. But the fact is,
at least for the next 70 days, as we can
see here from this um lockup release
period,
that all those shares are restricted.
They can't be sold on the open market.
Now, I think that there was a small
percentage of shares that they said in
the IPO would be available to sell
sooner. Um, and I and I don't know for
sure how it works with the underwriters.
Um, because I'm not totally sure how
that works either. So, it's not to say
that there's zero shares available for
sale because there will be, but uh the
bulk the vast majority of these shares
won't be available uh until well by day
180 essentially. So, that's important to
recognize. Um the inclusion in the
NASDAQ 100 was um seemed conditional on
SpaceX listing with the NASDAQ that
NASDAQ would actually change their rules
to accommodate SpaceX coming into that
ETF. And some people think that that's a
mistake that NASDAQ shouldn't um you
know bend to the request of a big
company that you know has a lot of
weight um and that you know SpaceX is
not profitable. Um they shouldn't be in
the NASDAQ 100. It doesn't set a good
precedent and you know it's going to
what if SpaceX just ends up selling off
for the next six months or a year? You
know that's going to hurt the average
you know on the ETF. On the other hand,
people say, well, if the ETF is supposed
to give you exposure across the market,
SpaceX is important component of that
and its growth could also um support the
index or the ETF. So, I so there's
various um points of view on it and it's
somewhat um contentious, but they made
the same request of the S&P 500 and the
S&P 500 denied that request. So that
means uh NASDAQ um inclusion starts at
day 15 and being included in the S&P 500
will take four consecutive quarters of
profitability and uh a minimum of one
year on the listing uh exchange. So that
means getting into the S&P 500 is going
to be pushed a ways out uh which is
important to to recognize the retail
allocation which we talked about before.
So, many of you guys who have tuned into
my other episodes know that I put in a
request for um a little over 4,000
shares and I received 147 shares. That's
it. I got 147 of a 4,250
share request for um the for shares of
the IPO through Schwab. And this seems
consistent with other people. People put
in a request for 100 shares, they got
10. people put in a request for, you
know, 10 shares, they got one. It sounds
like on Robin Hood a lot of people got
one share. Uh, which is cool. It's $135.
Um, you have to pay for it, but you own
it at $135. And so, if this ends up
opening right now at 165, you're up $30
a share. So, you know, that's an extra
$30 of profit. Now on um you know on on
10 shares and 100 shares and a thousand
shares it starts to it starts to add up
more. Um what this indicates to me is
that the demand is really high. Clearly
there was so much demand that they
couldn't give everyone all that they
asked for and so they divvied it up
however they chose. Um and this is this
is what you got. Now, whether you opened
your account yesterday or you opened
your account 10 years ago, I don't know
that that was a factor in the
calculation. What your balance is in the
account, I don't know if that was a
factor either. They didn't really have a
lot of time to allocate the shares. You
had to affirm you wanted them by 7:00
a.m. this morning and then the shares
hit your account by like 9:30. So, you
know, that's uh so that's where we're at
right now. And with those shares that I
hold um I'm not prevented or restricted
from selling them. So that means that
the approximately well initially uh we
understood that approximately 30% of the
float would be reserved for retail.
We've heard that that number has come
down to closer to 20%.
Which is disappointing but it is what it
is. So, um
I think four out of the five brokers
that were uh distributing these shares
have anti- flipping policies. So, they
say you cannot sell them on day one.
You've got to hold them for at least 15
days, but some of them it's longer. And
then Schwab does not. So, we don't know
how much how many shares Schwab got of
this total allocation
um and what the actual number of the
shares allocated ultimately ends up
being. But it is possible that you'll
have people on Schwab who are selling.
But since most people got a relatively
small number of shares, um they might
not feel it's really even worth it to
sell it. Like I got one share. Um you
know, what's what's the point? um you
know all whatever. So I don't know um I
think different people have different
perspectives on that. Um I guess in a
way it's it's an interesting strategy.
If you divided up the float
um you know by you know one share and
gave everyone one share a lot of people
probably wouldn't bother selling it.
They'd be like ah whatever. And then you
might end up actually having a lot of
the shares sort of um locked up in a
sense because people just don't care. Um
but I don't know that that's the
intention. I have no idea. But it as I
think about it, you could see how that
could uh be better perhaps than giving
the allocation in big blocks. Because if
you gave it in big blocks and someone's
suddenly up, you know, $150,000,
they're going to be more likely to cash
out, right? So, by sort of spreading it
out really thin, um maybe it makes it so
there'll be more um more support and a
little less selling. I'm speculating
because I don't know. So, uh so anyways,
the retail allocation is there's a
couple things that make this IPO
different. For those of you guys who
have watched my classes um at Warrior
Trading, the strategies and scaling
class has a chapter dedicated to trading
IPOs. So trading IPOs is not new to me.
I just there's only so many each year
that are hyped up enough that they're
really worth it. Um so my thinking um
has been that typically
I treat this very much like a halt. So
for my big account, watching the level
two, if it opens, what I would expect is
immediately we're going to see a burst
of volume and I'm going to be watching
the spread. So let's say it opened right
now and I see a bunch of buying at 62
162. I would be asking myself, how many
shares are for sale on the ask? Let's
say we saw 100,000 shares for sale on
the ask at 162. But we're seeing buying
going through and it goes 100, 90, 80,
70, 60, 50, 40, 30, you know, and it
starts to count down like that. What
that tells us is that other people are
buying those shares right now in real
time. And so I would usually jump in as
that block is thinning out expecting
that once we break that level we're
going to jump up um considerably and to
the next level where there's a bit
another big seller maybe at um 16250
the half dollar but in this case
probably more like 163. So, I'm thinking
it'll probably trade around half
dollars, whole dollars, but primarily
whole dollars. 162, 163, 164, 165, and
sort of so on and so forth in that
manner. And so, typically, I would look
to jump in. I would wait for it to drop.
I would give it just a second, and if it
doesn't tank immediately, which would of
course be bearish, then I'd be a buyer.
And so, that's what I would typically do
with an IPO. Now, I've had some IPOs
that went um famously well, and I've had
some that have gone famously wrong. And
I jump in, I think it's about to break
162, and then it flashes down to 158,
and I'm holding 10,000 shares, and I'm
down 40 grand. And I'm like, "Oh my
gosh, I have made a terrible mistake."
And then it rips right back up to 162
and I get out break even. And I'm like,
"Pew, that was a close call." Um so you
know it's um this is kind of the thing
where that's the risk of trading these.
They can be very very volatile. So what
makes SpaceX different from all the
other IPOs that I've traded is that it
has the largest float at 555 million
shares. That is a large float even
though it's small relative to the 13 or
whatever billion shares that are part of
the shares outstanding. 40% of which are
held by Elon Musk. The um the 555
million shares is a large number. So
this may not trade as well as I would
typically expect an IPO to trade simply
because the float is so much higher.
There will be naturally a lot more
supply. Um and that could affect the
equation of supply and demand and change
its ability to make a big move. On the
other hand, um what's also true is that
this has uh and well has as I said a
cult following will likely have a um
unbelievable level of demand and maybe
that offsets the float completely. You
know, I mean clearly the IPO people
didn't get as many shares as they
wanted. Um so will all those people
become buyers here and when would they
buy? would they buy? I mean, I might be
buying within seconds of this IPOing,
but most people probably aren't going to
be trading it that quickly. They're not
going to have their phone on them the
second it IPOs. So, maybe sometime later
this afternoon, maybe after hours,
maybe, you know, next week, maybe in the
next couple weeks. I don't I don't
really know. Um I'm not sure how many
people are sitting here looking to trade
it and day trade it on day one of the
IPO the way I am. Uh now again this is
typically this is not atypical for me to
take this approach of trading these um
in this manner but I I do recognize that
um I suppose the risk is a little bit
different here. Um so that's just
something to be
aware of. Um, so, um,
yeah. So, right now it's 11:04. Um, you
know, I don't know how long it's going
to be, um, until this starts trading.
This is the this is actually one of the
most frustrating parts of IPOs is that
you know you could get up to go grab a
drink and come back and trading has
begun and you're like h [sighs]
well I missed the first dip and now I
don't know if I want to chase it up here
and and that that's happened to me many
times and it is frustrating. So, that's
something that I'm a little bit
concerned about that risk. Um,
which is why I'm not inclined to get up.
Um,
but I'm just um going to kind of hang
here. And I suppose we can go over a
couple of the other um stocks that are
on the top gainers scanner. So, BY
um Chinese company here up 131%.
uh put in a big move earlier as you
could see um with this rally and then
kind of sold off. So um
this one um not something I'd be
interested in trading at this point.
Cast Cast 22 million share float US
company.
Now, I I I'll say I was really hoping
that we would see um a catalyst for um
a space like some type of space
headline, but we didn't get that. So,
yeah, one thing that I will do uh for
this uh I'm going to increase my offset
on my hotkeys to 50 cents to accommodate
a little bit more slippage instead of
using my standard 10-centent offset. um
just simply because um with a stock this
volatile as SpaceX will likely be um 10
cents won't give me enough slippage uh
to accommodate my entries and my exits.
So I'd prefer not to have to panic and
sell on the bid. Um but um for buying on
the ask, I'll give it that 50cent offset
and for selling on the bid I'll do maybe
25 cents, which for uh this price range,
I think we'll be fine. CDTG popping up
on the scanners. Chinese. Um,
I'll keep it on watch. See if it gets
more attention.
All right. So, sell ask, sell bid, sell
bid full. Yeah, I'll just give it a bit
a little bit more offset. I wouldn't
want to use an offset like that on a
lower price stock because um I wouldn't
want the market makers to take advantage
of my orders. uh which is what can
happen if you give too if you create too
or utilize too much of a offset.
So let's see.
Um and so I'll put up my disclaimer
again just periodically. I'll just
remind you guys especially those you
guys um who are newer that um trading is
risky. my results aren't typical. So,
please manage your risk, take it slow,
and don't try to blindly follow me or
anyone else for that matter. Practice in
a simulator before putting real money on
the line. If I end up taking trades, uh
know that I am trading many of these
very quickly. I'm putting real money on
the line and my motivation is to jump in
and jump out. Buy high, sell higher is
typically the way I approach these. Um I
you know it's it sometimes especially in
this market um can be risky if you take
the approach of I'm just going to try to
hold this for a bigger move because
often um
the the moves are shortlived. So CDTG is
now up um 71% on the day.
[clears throat] No trades on that for me
so far.
So let's see. Uh, we already looked at
CAST CUPR. This one um had a bigger move
earlier. Popped up to a high of 850. I
did quite well on it. Um, up 27,000 on
CUPR, so that was nice. But now it's
come back down quite a bit.
ACTU
uh popping up a little bit. This one I
don't like quite as much. The 200 moving
average is a little closer at 450. So, I
think that could be a problem.
Um, I need to link this to the right
window here.
Let's see.
Link to focus. Link to SpaceX.
There we go.
All right. That way when SpaceX starts
trading, I'll be able to have that up
and running real quick.
And I'm just going to unlock these ones.
So the software that you guys see me
using here um
this software uh I began developing in
2017
and at that time uh we started with it
being um just uh a chat room platform
for uh my live broadcast and for uh all
of our members uh to be able to uh talk
among themselves about the stocks are
moving. We then began integrating market
data and building out these scanners as
you can see here which search the market
in real time for stocks are moving. So,
you know, had I jumped in CtdG,
sorry, CDTG here at 360 right off the
scanner, um I'd be up a dollar a share
on it. Now, I don't blindly buy
everything um that um
hits the scanners. I do have to do some
degree of due diligence and think about
it, but um I
um I have these scanners tuned pretty
well to to find the type of stocks that
I really like.
So, let's see.
So, one of the things that I'll remind
you guys of is that um I am a big
advocate of traders practicing in a
simulator before putting real money on
the line. The problem with um trading
with real money right out of the gates
is that while you may have some degree
of beginner's luck, um ultimately that
will almost certainly run out. And when
it runs out,
sorry, hang on. When it runs out, you
will um almost certainly experience
the emotional swing of taking big
losses. And I would not want to see that
happen to any of you guys. So if you
start in a simulator then you can really
prove whether or not you have what it
takes to make money before you put real
money on the line and then your
transition to real money is a lot
smoother.
All right. So in this market right now
we have been seeing um a number of these
stocks that have moved on um essentially
no news Chinese stocks. UBXG. Um I will
say I I kind of like the idea of this
one a little bit more. Um it's got a bit
more volume. The halt level, however, is
um up here at 8.82. So it's it's not too
far away. Um our high a day on it is a
little over 11. I was curious earlier if
this one would give us a curl through
the new high. Um it seems like
it it has at least broken back over the
volume weighted average price, but we'll
have to see what it can do in this area.
Do you see how it previously double
topped right here? So, I could be a
buyer of this if it holds this area. Um,
and the spot I would probably look would
be this little micro pullback here
around 870. But, um, but but just
waiting for a second. See the way it
just dropped there back down to 802.
Um, I don't really love that kind of
drop.
Now, flipping back over to CTDG,
uh, sorry, CDTG. What I don't love as
much about this one is that the volume
is very light. And so, when you've got a
lighter volume stock, um, while you can
get a nice move on it, it can also drop
really quickly and then you get caught
on the wrong side. I also don't like
that this popped up a couple days ago
right here and then sold off. So, it
shows it has a tendency of doing that.
Um, those all make me a bit cautious to
trade it. You can see it dipping back
down here.
Um, UBXG
um is up 77% on the day and I think if
it was able to break through, if it was
able to hold in this area, then you know
your next kind of psychological area of
resistance is around 11:44. doesn't mean
it's going to go to 11:44, but it just
means that you have a decent amount of
room before um you know, we kind of have
a problem there. So, so I think that
that's a that's always a good thing. Um
but yeah, so let's see. Let's go back to
the top of that scanner. So, look at
that drop on CTDG. Sorry, this one's
going to be hard for me. They should
rename the company. Um this one dropped
all the way down to four, then come
back. came back up, comes back up to a
high of 495, then it dips down again.
See, th this is the type of stuff that
can be really hard to manage risk on
because you have such big swings.
So, I'm going to leave that alone.
Higher volume on the red candles.
Cast
gaining a little bit more momentum. Now,
the float on this is 22 million shares.
It's a little bit higher.
SpaceX quoting right now 160. Um, still
no uh no, it has not begun trading. No
trades yet.
TGL hitting the scanner there, but
another one with light volume. This
one's also um actually pretty sure it's
a foreign listed security.
So, how do you manage risk when you have
those kind of drops? I mean, you could
try to get in near support, but you just
got such a big uh swing between the
support and then the resistance. It's uh
it's challenging. When it's down at
support, it doesn't look strong. And
then when it's up at resistance, you
think it's way too extended.
Yeah, it is very possible that SpaceX
doesn't begin trading until the
afternoon. Um, I was um I was thinking
that may that may be the case.
So, the high of that candle on UBXG was
8.84.
Halt levels 925
going up. So that is a little close. Um
10% halt bands
because the price opened or closed on
the previous day above $3 a share.
So the way I look at this um down here
is support at $8 a share. This area
right here is a a descending wedge.
So see how you've got that kind of wedge
formation here. It's not perfect, but
that's kind of what I look at. Um, so
your support levels around eight.
It's about, you know, a few dollars away
from the high of 1144.
It's 11:34 44. So we had a double top up
here.
So that one was 34 and then that one was
44 when it came back up.
So when a stock um breaks the support
level like this did right there um
essentially the buyers who are holding
end up stopping out. They give up.
They're like nah I'm out you know I'm
not going to keep holding this. And then
uh shorts uh also take a position and we
get that harder selloff.
So anything below the VWAP is bearish.
Above the VWAP is bullish. And we just
had that cross from bullish to bearish.
So as it curled up here, this is a spot
where it could have pulled away, but it
wasn't able to do that.
cast. Yep. Moving higher
from 60 cents to $182. So, it's
currently halted. So, the way these
halts work um is the price is halted and
it's showing right now a resumption of
170. So, it looks very similar to
SpaceX. The stock is halted. SpaceX is
halted. It's halted because it's never
traded before. It's an IPO, but it's
very similar in that in the way it
looks. So, we can kind of play out what
happens on CAST
um as sort of a demonstration on how I
trade a resumption. So, when trading
resumes, all of a sudden, we're going to
get a burst of volume that goes through.
Everyone that's been unable to trade is
finally able to begin executing trades.
And so, boom, those orders start going
through. Now, in this case, because the
stock is already up 182%,
um it does have the risk that it'll
drop, which is a little bit different
than uh SpaceX, but nonetheless, um
you've got um the see the way the price
is sort of jumping around right here.
So, with a circuit breaker halt, the
resumptions are at predictable times.
Um, so in this case, oh, and let's just
pull up UBXG for one second. So, UBXG
dropped down and then reclaimed that
level. So, that is is somewhat bullish,
but still has a little ways to go before
it's um really bullish. We'll keep that.
We'll keep an eye on that. So, that's on
the um running up scanner. So, going
back to CAST, this one here has this
high of 182. So uh the halt was at 1118
and 35 seconds. So resumption if it's a
5m minute halt will be at 11:23 and 35
seconds. Exactly 5 minutes after the
halt after the last order went through.
So that's the minimum increment for a
circuit breaker halt is 5 minutes. They
can be longer, but at a minimum they're
always at least 5 minutes long. So the
soonest this can begin trading is at
11:23 and about 35 seconds. So, we still
have 2 minutes left to resumption. And
while the stock is resumed, you could
place a limit order to buy or sell. And
it'll go into the queue essentially to
um there's sort of an auction happening
behind the scenes right now of all the
traders that are lining up with buy and
sell orders. That's why the price is
fluctuating between 73 and 82. There's
some sellers and then there's some
buyers and then there's some sellers and
then there's some buyers. So, uh,
usually when something is halted going
up, we expect it to resume higher and
keep pushing higher because this one
has, um, already made a quite a big
move. Um, it's not as not as likely to
continue too much higher, I don't think.
But, uh, you never know. But in any
case, so behind the scenes, there's kind
of this auction going on, um, with
traders, you know, placing orders to buy
and sell. So, that's what we're seeing
affecting the price right now.
And thank you guys um who are streaming.
I appreciate you guys being here. So I
stream every day for members at Warrior
Trading. Um but a later stream like this
is uh special for uh an IPO.
So let's see. Um, and yep, I have, as
you can see on the side on the left, um,
147 shares of my 4,250
share order that got assigned to me. So,
I have some shares of SpaceX, but not as
many as I wanted. Um, and not enough to
feel that I can uh, really do a whole
lot with it.
Um,
yeah, an instant halt down can also
occur with stocks that have gotten
extended. One of the reasons I like
trading pre-market. Oh, there we go. So
there's the resumption and see it dips
down for a second and the halt down 67.
The halt up is 97. So now it's halting
right here, which isn't surprising
considering how much the stock was up.
Now the you can see all these sellers
are on the ask. They all want to sell at
67, but um no one not too many people
are buying shares. So it's now hit a
volatility trading pause going down this
time. So it hit volatility trading
pauses going up and now it's hit one
coming back down. This is not uncommon.
Um, the way these halts work is with
lower price stocks, um, they're kind of
a pain because, uh, let me just flip
over to my whiteboard. So, with lower
price stocks, just move the camera
slightly over to the left.
Um, so stocks $3.
It's not a great marker. Let me get a
different marker.
$3 and up. The halt bands are every 10%.
So that means a stock that closed the
previous day above $3, um, if it's at $3
right now, the halt up level is going to
be $330.
Um, a stock between 75 and $3 on the
previous day's close halts every 20%.
Which means if it's at $3 right now, the
halt up will be 360. And a stock that
was um below 75 cents on the previous
day halts every 15 cents. Which means if
it's at $3 right now because it's up a
ton, it'll halt at 315.
Isn't that funny? So even though in
these three scenarios, the current price
is $3. In this case, the stock is up
basically nothing. In this case, the
stock is um maybe up a little bit
because it closed below three. And in
this case, the stock is up a ton. and
the halt levels super tight. So,
naturally, and halt levels only occur
from um 9:30 a.m. to 400 pm. So, we
don't have any halts in the pre-market
session. So, um but during this window,
it can be more challenging to trade
stocks that have um that are sort of in
this area or this area because they
could halt so quickly. So CAST um is a
stock that is in the um the 75 cent uh
and under price. So it's halting every
15 cents. So it's halting a lot. Um and
unfortunately when they halt a lot it's
easy to get caught in a halt and then
you know you're kind of stuck which is a
real pain. So um you know in a perfect
world we would be trading stocks that
have the 20% bands. Uh but you know we
we trade what's what's moving and so in
this instance it's um well if you were
trading this one it's a cheaper stock.
So um now SpaceX um halt levels
uh I expect would be 10%. Um that would
be uh that would be customary. I I don't
know if
it's possible
um
that they could be tighter than that. Um
you do have tier one securities
that can be um have tighter bands, but I
don't know if this would qualify. It's
not an S&P 500 stock,
so I think it's going to be 10%. Um,
which means it would have to go up $16 a
share, you know, $15 a share to get
halted, which would be quite something.
Uh, so we may not see halts on it. Uh,
unless I'm wrong about u the halt bands,
uh, which I I could be. Um,
but certainly traded um, IPOs before and
we have had IPOs before that have
halted. So, it's not totally uncommon,
but um I'm just going to pull up the
Warrior Trading website for a second.
So, tier one securities above $3, the
halt band would be 5%. So, that's the
only thing is if this is considered a
tier one security. Um
it might it might be
so might be a 5% halt pan. We'll find
out. Well, I'm sure we'll we'll find out
because when when trading resumes, uh,
we'll be able to see what the halt
levels are. So, see how this stock AAN
aka N has the halt level at 21106. So,
it's a 10% halt band going up. 10% going
down. LD stands for limit up, limit
down. So, those are our halt bands.
UBXG, where was that one? Okay, so that
one's back up here. So, UBXG.
Um, so you know, it's it tested $8.99.
Um, it it's like it's kind of tapping
its head on that ceiling, but not quite
able to pull away. Um, as of right now,
the SpaceX price is coming down. We were
showing 175 earlier, uh, and now it's
come down to 155, which is substantial.
I mean, that's a substantial decline
from, you know, the highs.
>> [clears throat]
>> So, it's important to remember um the
rules around flipping. So, you know, um
the penalty. It's you're not breaking
the law. Um but it's um broker to broker
has different rules uh that they
enforce. And if you break the rule uh
that the broker has around flipping,
then they won't let you get shares of an
IPO in the future. We're gonna have
Anthropic this year, Open AI, we've got
some more IPOs coming, you know, some
big ones this year. So, you don't want
to do something that's going to
jeopardize your ability to participate
in future IPOs. Um, so let's see.
Let me see if I can pull up a resource
for you guys.
Um
now, um I think that when you guys
accepted your shares, um most likely you
would have seen what the rules were
around that. Um
this was um this is an article on CNBC.
Um you can see um you can see my face
right there. they interviewed me for
this article um talking about uh the
rules against flipping.
So um
with Robin Hood uh what did they say for
Robin Hood? Is it 30 days? Can someone
just confirm that? Uh Fidelity said 15
days. You can't sell for 15 days. Um
I'm not sure what Erade said. Schwab is
no lockout, no um uh there there's, you
know, no problem.
Let's see.
So, Robin Hood 30-day window
and Erade has a 30-day window that you
can't sell.
SoFi has a 30-day anti- flipping window.
Fidelity.
Um,
let's see. Now, Fidelity also uh reduced
the minimum uh amount of money you need
in your account in order to um
participate in the IPO to $2,000.
All right. So, um
so I mean this this is a vote for
Schwab. I mean I'm doing my small
account challenge with Schwab. I have no
relationship with them. So, I mean, it
I'm not getting paid. I'm not an
affiliate. It makes no difference to me
what broker you guys use. Um, I like
Schwab. They're good. Um, they're not
the best, but they also, you have to
measure the fact that they're free. It's
a free commission broker, so it's a
tradeoff. Um, but access to things like
an IPO, you know, I I didn't have enough
money in my account to ask for 10,000
shares or 20,000 shares. If I had, would
I have gotten 1,000 or 2,000? Maybe.
Maybe that's how you have to play it.
You've got to ask for a ton. Just just
get a little because a lot of you guys
said you asked for like 10 shares or 15
and you only got one or two. Well, see,
that's that was your mistake. 101 in
negotiating, you started too low. You
got to start high. So,
uh, you know, I I have I like Lightseed
a lot. I've been using them for a long
time, but they're they don't have the
connections to get you shares of an IPO.
So, keeping a ton of money in my
Lightseed account doesn't serve me in
these moments. Um although on the other
hand, if I want to day trade SpaceX,
I'll probably be able to um trade it
better using light speeded because of
how fast the order execution is. And you
guys, if I end up taking any trade
state, you'll you'll see that firsthand
how quickly I can get in and out. Uh and
that that is nice. Um but you know, it's
just they're they're different tools. So
in any case, um yeah, the ability to get
shares of an IPO and also be able to
sell it without getting punished. And so
the punishment is that you can't
participate in any more IPOs usually for
like 60 days. If you do it a second
time, you can't participate in any more
IPOs for a year. And if you do it a
third time, you're banned for life. They
they ban you for life from ever doing an
IPO with them again. Now, you could go
to a different broker, but um they
really um they really
I don't it must I don't know why it it
obviously matters to them. I don't know
why, but um CIT this one I I'm not
interested in trading. It came up the
other day all the way to eight and then
sold off. I like trading things that are
sort of they're on the front side of the
move and where they could keep pushing
higher and higher and higher. I don't
really like trading things that are, you
know, have just made a big move and are
now just a little bounce off the low.
That's why I like UBXG more. Even though
you could argue, well, it made this high
of 1144. You're right, but that was
today. So, that was just earlier today.
So, that's kind of like if this pulls
away, that would be my target is a
retest of that level from today. Um, but
if it had done that three days ago, I
wouldn't be interested because
if it did it three days ago, there might
be people who bought it who just held
it. They shouldn't have done that, but
they held and held and held. As it comes
back up, you're going to have
potentially resistance. Now, on an
intraday level, I suppose you could have
that as well. People that are still
holding. Um, so maybe the argument is
the same. But for some reason, when
we've had an intraday move like this, I
don't usually have an issue trading it
later in the day for that curl. I
usually see this more as like, wow, this
was the potential of what this did
today. And, you know, maybe we get a
move back up. And I suppose if you were
in up here and held through this
pullback and rode all this momentum,
maybe you would say, all right, well,
finally we're back up. Maybe my thesis
from here stands and this thing could
get a nice squeeze. Whereas if you had
something you've been holding for days
and days, you'd be much more likely just
to bail on it and get out.
All right. So, let's see.
Current time 11:35 approximately
I'm not sure if um people are holding
off on trading some of these other
stocks because they're just waiting for
the SpaceX IPO and don't want to be in
two stocks at the same time potentially.
But um usually these hyped up IPOs are
delayed quite a bit.
Um so it, you know, it may not begin
trading till after lunch.
They never announce the exact time that
trading will begin unfortunately. So, uh
they'll tell us it's always the same.
You know, they're going to give quotes
in the morning and then, you know, it
could be any minute. It could be 30 20
30 minutes and then it just kind of
keeps taking a little longer, a little
longer and we're just sitting here
twiddling our thumbs. I really don't
know why it sometimes takes as long as
it does, but um
so CIT hitting the scanner a couple more
times. I think sometimes beginner
traders are jumping on stuff like this
and they're not zooming out to see the
bigger chart and realize, oh wait a
second, the daily chart's not that
great, the five minute chart. It's easy
to get really fixated on these short
time frames.
So, I'm just going to be streaming and
hanging out here um for the first trades
and the opening trades on SpaceX.
Whenever they go through
VSME is another stock that popped up a
couple days ago and then tried to put in
a little bounce today, but it's just
when it's in the shadow of such a big
move. Um, I mean, and this is an example
where it gave back pretty much the
entire move and then it's just a little
bounce off the low. Uh, not a fan of
that.
We're still showing $150. So, you know,
arguably there's a degree of that that
feels bearish since we were initially
showing 175. So, it's come down $25 a
share. You know, that's kind of a lot.
Um, but 150 is also $15 higher than the
IPO price.
um you know, but $15 a share higher
on $135 stock. Um you know, it's 10% a
little more than 10%.
It's not a huge
um resumption or I'd say resumption, but
So, the way I'm probably um going to be
getting in this if I get in will be with
my hot keys. Shift one, two, or three to
buy 1,000, 2,000, or 3,000 shares. I
really uh you know at this price
could buy like maybe 7,000 or 8,000
shares. Um so but 7 8,000 shares and
then you know a three four point drop
could give back certainly um a good
chunk of my morning and I've had a good
morning. This has been really solid. So
I don't want to throw money away. Um,
but if it seems that
um
if it seems that it's uh looking good,
that would be nice.
Yeah, it's important that it closes the
day green, I think, psychologically. Um,
and the next 10 days are also important.
Uh, next 15 days and then NASDAQ
rebalance comes up.
So I would also say that if um this when
this begins trading any stocks that are
moving up on on well no news at all if
that's the case. Um, it might hurt those
stocks because traders are going to
shift their focus.
So, our daily chart when it starts
populating will just be a one big
candle. Um,
the intraday charts, the first time
frame that I'll be looking at will be
the 10-second time frame.
I'll certainly be looking at the spread.
I'll be looking at the halt levels and
I'll be looking at the size of the
orders on the level two.
As I indicated, I already have 147
shares that I got um from Schwab with
the early IPO request at 135. Uh, but as
of right now, I'm not planning on
focusing on those shares when it begins
trading. I'm just going to focus on my
main account.
I don't think it would be likely,
I guess, that I'm able to
drastically improve my profit on the day
on SpaceX because I don't know that it's
going to have enough range and I don't
know that I could I don't think I could
buy enough shares to capitalize on a
small range. So, if it goes up one or$2
dollars a share,
you know, I could make five or 10 grand
on it, but that's not going to be um
it's not going to make a big move on my
day. I would need some other stocks to
start moving that are a little bit lower
price where I could buy more shares in
order to uh have the day go up to like
75K or 100K.
So, we've got about 15 minutes to the
top of the hour. Not that it really
matters.
Uh, it's not like I don't think there's
any reason to think it's going to it's
going to begin trading at a um even like
directly at noon or something like that.
and THI is hitting the scanner, but it's
very light on volume.
All right. So, there we go. So, there's
the first trade. Watching the dip and
punching an order right here at 150. So,
I've got a starter here and now looking
for the squeeze through 151,
but not liking how so far it's not
holding super well.
So, I'm seeing I'm selling right now.
I'm going to let it pull back for a
second.
So, the problem here is that you could
see it's really heavy at 150. I'll pull
up the chart here.
So, as far as IPOs go, so far, this
one's not a very good one. Um,
I don't really like this price action.
It's moving up a little bit more now,
but um
you're seeing big sellers,
so I don't know if I would get back in
it at this point. Um
high is 154.
So, let's just watch here.
giving a chance to dip
back here for the break of 153
and now looking for 155.
So watching up here
added there for 155. Then if we get
through 155, looking for 156.
There we go. There's 156. Taking half
off the table. Taking another half off
the table. Stops now break even at 153.
Added back at 156 for 157.
Took a little profit at 15750.
Added 15750. Now looking for 158.
So watching here.
There's 158. Taking a little more
profit.
Halt level is far away at 168.
Taking a little more profit off the
table, just under 160. Psychological
level where people will have orders
placed. So, my small position of 147
shares in um this account is up 3,600
bucks, which is nice, but I'm not going
to trade that or sell that right now.
So, I'm a little worried about profit
taking up here.
Watching
big sellers on the ask.
Watching it to thin out.
Added small size there. 2,000 shares
now. Watching over 62. Add it again. And
watching to see if we break through 63
out for now. 6204.
So, this is the way I often trade these
is I just buy and sell, buy and sell as
it moves higher. Um, but you have to be
careful because if you get in too high,
you can get caught um holding the bag.
Now, on the other hand, you could say,
geez, you know, why didn't you just uh
why didn't you just hold the whole
thing, you know, from 150? Well, that
first trade you saw actually went red
2,400 bucks. Um,
but look at how this just dropped all
the way down here to uh 155.
It's just very easy to make a mistake.
So you can see this is the level two
window in the top corner. It's showing
the quotes. The buyers are on the left,
the sellers are on the right, and then
this is showing every individual order
that goes through the market on this
stock.
So, this is the um this is the market
data that traders like myself are using
each day.
So, reducing my share size a little bit.
If I uh decide to take another trade,
the high of day is 63
163.
So, putting my order around 162.
Going to draw a little support level
down here.
So, that's support down there. That's
resistance up there. 163.
Now, technically, there's that bottoming
tail there. Um, I don't know if that'll
end up getting corrected. That doesn't I
don't know. We'll see. Not sure.
So 15584 is support. So the closer I
could get into support, the better.
Traditionally this is the first one
minute uh micro pullback but uh the
range is quite large in this area. Some
reporting brokers are crashing
Robin Hood is down. Some are saying
adding here at 162
um 16117 and looking for the break of
162 and then looking to see if we
squeeze through 163 which would be a new
high of day. So watching over 16250.
So right now we've got 162 on the ask.
So it's not breaking fast enough. So,
I'm selling
at 161.84.
The problem with a trade like that is
I'm getting in right underneath the high
a day and if it doesn't work, I'm going
to be I'm going to be in too high
because I can wait a little bit, but
I've got to be careful. So, if I add
back up here, and it is tempting to add
back, um, you know, I'm adding literally
at high a day. So, if you had the um
smaller position size, you might have
held longer. This is the problem with
trading with bigger position sizes. You
trade with big size and you have to keep
a really tight leash on it because if it
doesn't work right away, you can get you
can get smoked.
When the momentum is building, volume is
increasing, that's when I want to be
buying. when it suddenly stalls out and
it was sort of stalling out there.
That's when things get a little scary
because all of a sudden
um you're like, "Uh, hello. Where's the
buying? I'm in this thing at the top."
So, I had the right idea. I got shaken
out on it a little bit. Can I get back
in up here? Not yet. Now, we've got four
green candles in a row.
So, we've got 124 million shares of
volume right now. We just had a a little
uh candle wick there where the top went
up to 166 um 90.
We're definitely seeing the volume
building um or well, not relative to the
first candle, but in this area here,
which is good.
So we already know that earlier here we
had a bigger drop where we dropped from
163 to 155. So that was a eight point
drop, right? So we have to recognize
that that can happen again. And so
here's another drop. So this is our
first pullback right here.
That was our first pullback. And this
right here is our second pullback.
So trading with smaller size as we get
higher up.
Added right here for the break through
168 and looking for 170.
So what I'm thinking on this is that we
squeeze through this level. We get
through 168. We get over 170. That's
what I'd like. So watching 16850.
So now watching 16850.
So it's a little too heavy. So I'm
selling there at 1677.
That was a little flat top breakout and
that was the level that needed to break.
So, now we're getting a second candle of
pullback.
So, up about 4,500 on the 147 shares
there in um on Charles Schwab, which is
nice.
And again, there's no flipping rule. If
you were up on Robin Hood or Fidelity,
there's no real point in watching the
price action because you're going to get
um you know, they'll penalize you if you
sell.
So, not sure.
It's a little hard to tell so far about
support levels because we're so we don't
have much chart history to work with.
The previous high of 163 is important.
So you see that was a big burst to
selling right there and then that causes
a panic. All of a sudden people are
like, "Oh no, I'm in too high." And this
also breaks the trend a little bit where
you know, okay, four candles up, one
candle back, four candles up, two
candles back. All right, three. Now
four. That one's a little bit bigger.
So I am concerned that this is going to
see a lot of selling um but not really
in earnest until after day 70
because uh 70 trading days because of
the um lockout period. Um insiders are
restricted from selling uh today. Almost
all of them are.
There's only a small number of shares
that could be sold uh by insiders today.
Yeah, it wouldn't surprise me if some
charts are delayed. Erade charts or
Robin Hood, you know, it's this is a
huge amount of data going through
So, usually my best trades on an IPO are
in the first 10 minutes just like that.
Um, so this may be
this may be it uh for me.
It's usually that initial burst right as
trading begins where you know things um
things are really exciting.
So, a new pattern would have to form
here. The pattern that I really like
trading is buying that first pullback
after a fresh breakout. But um you know,
this is now sort of a different um it's
you've got three red candles, then that
bottoming tail, then another red candle,
and now it's just it's getting a little
tricky.
So today's day one of SpaceX trading.
So the IPO price is 135. We're currently
up 25% from the IPO price, which means
the market cap of um 1. So we were at um
1.77
trillion
times 1.25.
Um so it's now $2.21 trillion market
cap.
If anything, this looks like the
beginning of a head and shoulders
pattern. and the head is the shoulder,
the head, the shoulder, and then it
comes back down here.
So, that's something I would be on the
lookout for potentially.
I don't think that there's going to be a
lot of people that are shorting this on
day one, especially with the fact that
it's going to be um included in the
NASDAQ 100 in um 15 days. But, you know,
some people
might. So,
if that were the case, um,
a drop back down,
it's not impossible.
Just looking at these levels here,
again, it's hard to say that these are
really valid levels because it's it's
quite early. This is the first um you
know little bit of price action we've
had.
Now, if I'd gotten my full uh 4,000
share order um on
um Schwab, I I would have been more
inclined to take profit.
You know, I would have been up quite
quite a lot more than uh than I am now,
like $120,000.
But, um given,
you know, given what I got, I'm kind of
okay with holding at that IPO price of
135.
So I think for most retail traders this
area is going to be quite difficult.
Volume weighted average price is the
orange trend line.
We've got 173 million shares of volume.
We're about $10 a share off our highs.
So we know the float is um 555 million
shares and that's definitely affecting u
the price action on this because there's
um right now we we have one-third float
rotation. What we like to see on a stock
that has a potential to make a really
big move is a high degree of float
rotation where all the shares in the
float are being turned over. That's when
you start to get parabolic momentum and
things really explode. And this just
structurally isn't set up for that to
happen. The float is too large. Yes, the
float is small relative to the total
number of shares outstanding in the
ratio, but 550 million shares is is a
larger float. So, um yeah. So, arguably
this is um
not going to get cleaner from here. Um
it could, but um but I don't really I
don't really expect it to. Um, I think
this is a good example where we've got
that shoulder, the head, we come back
down sort of the edge of the shoulder
and it it feels like a it feels a little
heavy here if anything, but maybe it
holds up in this area around the volume
weight average price. Um, you know, what
we don't know is how many traders uh are
out there who have been wanting to trade
this and are like, "Oh, it just started
trading 15 minutes ago. Now I can buy."
But are there really enough individual
retail traders who are going to go out
there and just buy it at this price? Not
one. $135 a share was already an obscene
valuation by pretty much all experts.
160 is ridiculous just considering the
closest comps that you could that you
could look at. And you could say nothing
is comparable to SpaceX and you're not
wrong in a lot of ways, but um
it it it's it's hard to justify
the total addressable market u on their
AI segment that is um substantiating
this really high valuation. Um Starlink
is a great product. The connectivity
segment is great. represented 61% of
their total revenue last year. It's
their cash cow. Uh but they're taking
all that money and then they're spending
it on space and AI. AI with the new um
$920 million a month contract with
Google and the $1.25 billion a month
contract with Anthropic is going to be
generating more revenue this year than
ever before for the business. Um but
it's got a long ways to go in order to
really um substantiate on paper this
valuation which is right now over $2
trillion.
So, the halt levels, um, we didn't have
any issue with halts. The halts are too
far away on this one. Um, up at 175 and
143, 10% away from the current price.
So, um, we Yeah. So, we've got, um,
we've got a lot of room there.
which I suppose is helpful. A lot of
traders don't really understand how
halts work and don't like being caught
in a halt.
So, this will be a nice uh live archive
uh for members.
I'm going to save this
So,
we're on an a little uptrend right now.
Coming back up. The lows here now
rallying back up a little bit. Our high
a day was 16875 as you can see right
here. Um, I have not gotten back in. Um,
I look at the total volume is declining
a bit. the liquidity is um I mean
there's still a lot of volume but
declining versus those highs. This could
now be a bit of a sort of imperfect um
reversal coming back up. So we should
see in this area the high of that
candle.
Let's see.
Oops, not there. So I'm going to mark
the high right about there. 165
and then we've got a little resistance
right around here at 167 and then that
would be through 168. So an ascending
support trend line down here.
It's not perfect, but
So that's our high a day. I'll put that
one in yellow for now.
Then this is our support.
This one was another level from earlier.
So you see how we break that level,
breaking that uh ascending support
level. Now it's a little it's still a
little early to say with certainty that
this is the most respected level because
these are a little early. Um but
uh it does seem like that at least this
double top level up here of 165ish
and the high a day are certainly spots
to keep uh on watch. If we could hold
over 165 that that breaking that
resistance and holding above it would be
good. Um but I would be a little
concerned. One of the challenges with a
stock of this price range is that you
can instantly be down a dollar a share.
And so the it's it can be hard to
minimize the cents per share losses. Uh
which means you might be taking more
risk than you kind of would like to. So
if you're risking 50 cents or a dollar a
share, you kind of need to make $2 a
share to justify it. So if you got in at
165, you really do need to see a move to
167.
Are you likely to see that in one big
candle? I'm not sure. Um, we are seeing,
you know, 3 400,000 share sellers on the
ask.
They're getting bought up here. So, it's
going 27,000
227,000
and then
so that's a little tricky. It kind of
broke there for a second. Um, so those
sellers kind of pulled their order back.
They can't the the sell the orders
didn't fill. they just sort of pulled
him back and then put him back. So, I
never like when the market makers do
that. Um, they kind of trap you into
buying at the top and then they flush it
back down against you. So, right now it
seems like there's some sellers up
against this 165 area.
So, what does it look like for this to
break over and hold over that level?
Well, it would first need to break 165
and then go up to like maybe 16550. What
was the high back here? Look at the
10-second chart again.
So the high on this candle well yeah it
was 16550.
So there you go. So you break you hold
and then this is where would I want to
jump in right here at 166
to look for the squeeze to 157 167 and
168.
I just don't think the risk-to-reward is
as good right here. I don't know. I I
just think that right here
you could tell how heavy it is just
there's a lot of volume going through
but into all this volume. Um there's
just a lot of shares for sale. So
now getting in at 167 would be a quick
scalp where you're getting in and
looking for an immediate test of 168 and
a squeeze through the high of day 16875.
But, you know, I don't know. You don't
want to hit you don't want to get caught
um you know with a someone with a big
market order
um
that
you know causes another four or five
point flush like what we saw back here,
right?
So, the range the candles the range is
getting smaller. The candles are getting
smaller. The volume is declining a
little bit.
So all of that means this is a riskier
place to be a trader.
This is a flat top breakout pattern
right here.
And that little flush down to what was
the low there? 160
16460.
You know, it's not really clear
that it's going to be able to break
through these highs at the moment.
So, I'm up $39,000 on it in my day
trading account, up 4,400 in my uh
long-term account or well, my Schwab
account. It's got 147 shares in three
accounts there. So I am uh just sitting
on those right now
watching the all-time highs.
Now, we had a couple stocks last week,
um, STI was one of them, um, that was
moving up on a satellite catalyst. ASTC
was another one. I wondered if either of
those would get attention today, but
neither of them have
219 million shares of volume right now.
So, some of you guys who are newer might
feel like, "Oh gosh, I'm not up as much
as Ross. I'm going to keep trading
this."
And I could say the same thing. I'm not
up as much as, you know, a whole bunch
of other people. But I got what I got
out of it on that first clean move
higher. And I'm not sure that it's going
to get easier than that. They usually
don't. This might be an exception
because it's got so much hype around it.
But the difference between being up
39,000 on it and being up, you know,
139,000 on it really would just be
taking bigger positions. And if I took
bigger positions, that means I'd have to
be comfortable with taking more risk and
taking a bigger loss if it didn't work
in my favor. So, um, and I'd have to
have the buying power to do it as well.
So, I traded this about as aggressively
as I could. I was in a good position on
the day to take that risk. And so, um,
another 83,000 share seller on the ask
here at 16768.
So, it breaks that level.
You can see how fast uh the level two is
uh you know moving here. There's just so
many buyers and sellers coming in and
out
and then you get that kind of flush back
down. So would it really have been worth
it to get in at 167 and sell at 16750? I
mean it's only 50 cents a share of
profit. It doesn't really justify the
risk you would have been taking. But if
you're still holding now, it's back down
at 166, you know, 165. So
you, this is where when it's unable to
pull away, it stops being interesting to
trade.
So now the trend is sort of rolling over
a little bit more. Bigger red candle
there.
So again, that's a bigger drop back
down.
So at this point, we're seeing more of
the big red candles like that one and
this one and this one. And although we
had a few big green candles early on, at
this point we're seeing small green
candles, but still big red candles. So
again, speaking to the fact that the
risk has um increased on this and the re
reward is decreased.
Now, this week um has been uh really
great. We've had some great price
action. We saw some huge moves. I think
that um you know, a lot of traders are
really excited about this IPO. So, there
was a lot of hype around it um which
certainly helped. And um
you know, that resulted in momentum in
other areas of the market. So, as I sit
here right now, um I'm up 84,000 on the
day in my um my active day trading
account here, which is a great day.
And um I I made more than I thought I
would on SpaceX. I I'll I'll admit that.
I didn't think I would make as much as I
did, but um but I I did pretty well on
it, so that was nice. Um, and this week,
um, not including today's profits, um,
you know, I was already sitting at, uh,
$261,000
on the week. So now after today, I'll be
at 340,000,
$345,000
on the week. That's just in one week. So
market's pretty hot right now. As
always, I'll remind you guys that my
results aren't typical. I've been doing
this for a long time. Uh it it took all
of the years up until today for me to
have the level of experience and
intuition and capital to be able to
trade the way I trade. So it's not going
to happen overnight. Uh but um I'm I'm
thrilled that the market is picking back
up and I hope that we continue to see
some great opportunities uh next week.
So, you know, I start streaming every
day at 7 a.m. and I stream for members
at Warrior Trading, uh, during my
morning trading session, which starts at
7 and is usually done by 9:30, 10. So,
uh, for those of you guys tuning in on
YouTube, I've got a link to our twoe
trial pinned at the top of the comments
and in the description if you want to
check it out. You're welcome to come
join us for the next couple weeks and
see what it's like to trade in a
community of traders who are looking for
volatility every day. you know, SpaceX.
I mean, this is this is probably the
only day you'll see me trade it um for
the next year, more. I might not trade
this again for years. I don't trade
Tesla, you know, I don't trade stocks
like this, but I trade IPOs. The reason
I trade IPOs is because hyped up IPOs
are very volatile and they're they've
become predictable to a certain degree
of what you can get in the first 15, 20
minutes. Um, what it's going to do over
the rest of the day, I'm not sure. Uh,
what it's going to do over the next
couple weeks, I'm not sure. I think the
inclusion in the NASDAQ 100 is a good
thing. I think that we're probably going
to see if it closes today as a big green
candle, some more opportunities on it. I
have a bias because I still am holding
147 shares at 135. But um you know I I
think it looks good, but I also am very
concerned over the next 6 months that
we're going to have insiders that start
taking profit. And I don't know that I
mean the fact is
with over 10 billion shares outstanding
and seven 7.5 billion that'll become u
eligible to sell into the market within
the next six months or so. Um, think
about how many days it would take for
the 7.5 billion shares to get sold.
Right now, we only have 235 million
shares. And this is probably going to be
the highest day, highest one of the
highest volume days. I mean, typically
the IPO day is one of the highest volume
days. So, if it's averaging 50 million a
day or 70 million a day, it would take
weeks of steady consistent selling for
them to be able to unwind those
positions. and where's the demand going
to come to help support the price while
that's happening. So that's what I'm
worried about over the next six months.
Um but at the end of the day, we don't
know how many of those insiders will
take profit and how many of them are
going to hold for the bigger move.
So, yeah, I don't know if um will there
be anything else to trade today? Well,
it's 12:30 on a Friday. um probably
wouldn't typically expect um a lot else,
but I think SpaceX
at this point becomes a little bit of a
distraction that a lot of people are
probably watching it. But to the extent
that those people can really trade it
profitably or make a lot of money on it,
I'm not really sure.
So, my last trade was um sort of back in
this area where I was looking for that
squeeze through the high. Um where was
what was the time stamp on that one? So,
1156.
It's right here. And at that point, I
was looking for this to break right
through the highs. I had got in a little
high at 168.
And I knew I was in high, but I was
like, "Okay, we're moving quickly. I
want to look for it to squeeze through
16875, 169, and then I was hoping we
break 170 and make our way, you know,
higher." Um, and so it sort of popped up
for a second to 16850, but it felt like
there was a lot of selling. it just
wasn't quite strong enough and I was
like, uhoh, this might be a problem. And
so at that point, I said, I better I
better uh I better get out of this
thing. So, so I got out at 16777
as you could see right there in my
orders. So, um and and that was a 6,000
share position. So, I was in and out
right there. And it's a good thing I got
out because if I had held, I wouldn't
have wanted to hold through that
pullback with that much share size. Um
and then the bounce off the volume
weight average price, you know, valid,
but um I don't like that trade as much
on a higher price stock because
um it's just the risk is a little too
high for me. So anyway, so nothing on
that one. And then now as we sit right
here, uh we're kind of rangebound a
little bit. Uh rangebound meaning we're
below the high, we're above kind of the
the support levels. So, we're just kind
of in a area here with a bit lighter
volume. You're not breaking new highs.
You're not breaking new lows. That's
where more volume comes in. More traders
get excited. Um, so, you know, now it's
just kind of Yeah, I don't know. Um, am
I worried about it breaking below the
IPO price of 135? Um, I would be worried
about that within the next six months,
but over the next 15 days, I'm not
worried about that, especially with the
inclusion in the NASDAQ 100. But, um,
you know, I I could be wrong. Um,
but my my gut feeling I mean it it
ultimately the this position that I'm
still holding um
you know I should probably check on it
around 3:30 near the end of the day and
decide is this closing strong enough
that I think it's going to continue into
Monday. Um I wouldn't hold 8,000 shares
over the weekend into Monday in my big
account. It's just too risky. Too much
could happen. But since I've got such a
great cost basis because I got the
shares from Schwab through the um the
IPO request at 135, I'm kind of like,
you know, you can give them a little
more space. Now, on the other hand, you
could also then let it come all the way
back down to break even, and that would
probably be a mistake. So, at a certain
point, you should probably take profit
off the table. Uh but right now the
bigger picture is that um we've come
down to around 155 um down here and we
held support in that area. Uh so that's
good. You know 150 half dollar you know
that kind of psychological level is good
right now. You know this area is sort of
an early support trend line. This is a
little bit of resistance trend line. So,
you know, I'm I'm giving this a little
bit more room. And again, like I said, I
wouldn't do that. If I held 15,000
shares,
um, you know, but with uh, and even if I
had 1500, I might take a little off the
table. I'd be up 43 grand. But with 150
shares, um, being up or down three or
4,000 doesn't make a big difference for
me. So, uh, when I can get myself in a
position where I've got that nice of a
cost basis, I like to try to let it
work. Uh, it doesn't always happen. So,
I'm I'm grateful that I got it.
Um, yeah, end of day price predictions.
Um, I mean, we still have three and a
half hours before the closing bell and
then of course there's after hours
trading.
Part of me wouldn't be surprised if it
stays within this range of 155 to 168
because the float is so big. Um, we
might just stay in this range. um not
having enough sellers to really knock it
down, but not also having enough buyers
to really send it higher. Um but I think
there will be probably residual buying
support throughout the day as people
recognize, oh, trading has begun. I'm
going to go buy my 100 shares, thousand
shares. You multiply that by millions of
people and that's a lot of volume. So,
you know, that might kind of keep it
propped up. And then if you cross
certain certain points like a high a day
break, some traders are going to come in
like the way I do just to trade that
quick breakout.
But I I think that
right now I wouldn't make I wouldn't put
my money on uh expecting a big move,
a really big move one way or the other.
It just feels it feels quite heavy right
now. Uh, so I wouldn't I wouldn't expect
that it necessarily goes much higher
than 175 or 180. Um, a move to 200 would
surprise me and a drop back down to 135
would really surprise me. So I I don't
think that either of those are really
highly likely. I think that um we're
more likely to stay somewhat rangebound
and maybe have a couple false breakouts
or false breakdowns.
Now, we were looking at um UBXG earlier.
This one um this is a stock that's up
about 63% today. We peaked earlier today
um around
150%. It's Chinese. Um, it says Swiss,
but it's actually it's Chinese. Um, you
can see the the address here. So,
this is a stock that had a bit of
momentum. Had this nice squeeze from $4
all the way up to 11.44. Um, you can see
I traded it. I didn't do super super
well on it. Um, but broke the ice. Uh,
then it pulled back quite a bit. And
when it curled back up, we were sort of
watching this earlier in the broadcast
around 11:30, wondering if this was
going to pull away up towards um these
previous highs and it didn't sold off,
but now it's back kind of at the VWAP.
And I think that this could be one to
consider into the afternoon. Um I I I
suspect I I just sort of have a feeling
that traders are going to be looking for
something to trade that's a little bit
more within their safe price range.
um that has maybe higher um percentage
return potential than SpaceX. So, it
wouldn't surprise me if you saw
something starting to squeeze, but some
of the others that have moved today,
you know, are down quite a bit.
So, BY was up 118% or was up quite a bit
more, but that's what it's at now. cast.
This one's at 22 million share float.
Has halted a number of times as we were
talking about earlier. So, rallied up,
sold off, rallied back up. Big ranges.
Ruby a little cheaper below 96 below a
dollar at 96.
Um, CUPR, this one had a big rally up to
850 and then kind of has unwound back
down here.
Um I so when I'm trading using the
candlestick charts, I'm primarily
looking at the daily chart for possible
areas of resistance. Uh so CUPR had 1128
as a 200 moving average. Um UP
or UBXG
um has a lot of room to the 200. So,
this one doesn't have any nearby
resistance, which is one of the reasons
I liked it on the daily chart. Um, you
know, it's I thought that kind of had
nice potential. Uh, but I I check the
daily chart for support and resistance
and then after I've checked the daily
chart, then I'm really looking at the
one minute right here. And I look at the
10-second and then I'm looking really
closely at my market data, my level two,
and my time in sales. So, I can gauge
the interest and the sentiment. I can
see when people are buying. I can see
when people are selling. And so that's
uh really important.
GMM. Yeah, I'll look at that one. So,
yeah, any ticker requests? I can look at
some different tickers.
Maybe what I'll do is I'll put a chart.
I'm going to rearrange things a little
bit. Um, I'm going to look at tickers
over here and then I'll put a chart for
SpaceX uh just in the other side.
So that's a nice rally from 163 back up
to 1667
again. I that 168 level is resistance.
Um
so and then 16875ish
is the high of day. So you're you're
just it's hard to trade it up here
because you're so close to high a day.
250,000 share seller there at 68.
That's a really strong big green candle,
though. So, what brought in that volume
there? Um, individual buyers, you know,
I don't know, a few that's a million
shares in a 10-second candle. I mean,
those are huge amounts of volume. Uh,
but then at this point, you worry about
getting a rejection up at this level.
All right. So, let's see. Um,
I'll just put this over here for right
now.
So, GMM you asked me about um yeah, it's
got about 35 million shares of volume
today. Um an interesting daily chart for
a curl, but it's um it's sold off quite
a lot. It's not holding up super well.
So, our high a day here, you know, we're
kind of creeping up to this level. We
keep sort of flashing um
a little bit higher there and then you
get that flush. This is a really
dangerous area for me because um often
with small caps I get tempted to buy to
anticipate that breakout and expecting
that when we break that level we'll get
a really nice big squeeze and you might.
But can you tolerate getting in at 168
and then catching a flush down to 16650?
It's a dollar and a half per share. It's
a big flush. And so how much do you need
to make if that's your risk? Well, you
should make twice what you're risking.
So now you need to make $3 a share. So
you need to get to 171 just to cover
your risk. And you know, $3 a share is a
lot to ask for. I mean, it would be it'd
be nice to get that. It's not possible,
but it just feels like your downside
risk is too high. And it's hard to have
certainty that it'll break at the moment
you get in, unfortunately.
So, and yeah, I'm still holding shares
on Schwab here. um up $4,600 with the
cost basis of 135. So, I got those
shares through the IPO and um they'll
they sit there for right now. I haven't
decided um how long I'm going to hold
those for. So, in my main account, my
position size is zero. I'm all out with
$39,000 of profit.
So, let's see. Um
another dip back down there.
So, some users reporting issues with
Robin Hood.
RKLB has a 500 million share float. So,
the float on that's too high to expect
any type of day trading in my opinion.
cast.
Still sort of doing the same thing.
Halting up, halting down.
Um, I don't know if a international
resident can get shares through Schwab.
I'm not totally sure. Um, I think I did
hear some I saw some people comment on
my um video I uploaded earlier today
asking if people got shares from
Australia. A number of people commenting
from Australia that they were able to
get shares, but it was like five or 10
shares. It was pretty small uh
positions. SNBR, thank you. Okay. Um, so
cheaper. 17 cents a share or uh sorry,
17 million share float, 41 cents a
share. Um
the stock is US consumer discretionary
home and hardware
sleep number H.
I mean it's at this point because it's
dropped down so much it's been
stairstepping down. So I just don't like
that pattern. Unfortunately it doesn't
look very good to me right now.
I did look at RKLB and I mentioned that
the float was too high.
So, Robin Hood requires you to hold your
shares for 30 days. Fidelity said 15
days. Um,
Erade said 30 days. And Schwab said they
don't care if you flip them. You could
sell them on day one. They don't care.
So, I could sell my my shares if I
wanted to. So, this right here is
tempting. Again, this is very tempting
for me to get back in. But, I recognize
that I might be getting baited into
sort of a liquidity trap where they make
it look like it's going to go, you buy,
giving them the volume they want to sell
shares, and then dump it back down. Um,
this is an imperfect ABCD pattern for a
breakout, but we don't know how many
people are going to be selling against
168. That's the problem right up here.
So, you know, I I
on the one hand, I want to participate
in the breakout and on the other hand,
I've touched the stove enough times to
know that I get burned up here a lot.
Uh, but sometimes I'll get a cookie and
I don't know which one it's going to be
today, but I'm cautiously looking at it,
but I'm thinking if I punched it for
8,000 shares, I could lose 26 grand very
quickly,
and I don't want that to happen. You
know, $84,000 is an awesome day. So,
it if I don't have a high level of
conviction, it's better usually for me
just not to take the trade at all.
So,
you know, I don't know exact. So, they
they can't make you hold. You can sell
your shares, but they'll penalize you
for selling. And it might be some type
of deal that the uh broker has with the
banks, but I don't or with the
underwriter, but I don't really know
because then why is it different for
Schwab? So, I'm not clear on exactly why
um you know, some would be okay and
others would be not okay with it.
So, it is bullish that we're
consolidating right underneath the high
of day. There's no doubt about that.
That is bullish. This is a bullish
pattern. The price is holding up well.
Um, but is it going to be strong enough
to be able to break through this
ascending support level and go up to
these areas?
So, we're starting to perk up a little
bit more there. So, that's a new high a
day.
So, I'm watching.
But we dip back down to 16820,
16835.
Little selling here going through the
market.
So there's a seller holding it back
right here.
So we broke the high a day um by you
know about 20 cents
and now we're coming up to 169.
To be honest, we've seen small caps that
have broken half dollars and whole
dollars better than this.
So, I had my hand on the buy button for
a second there, but now I'm lifting it
back off.
If it didn't break that seemingly very
logical place cleanly, then you know,
would it break 169 cleanly?
it it's right there when we broke
through high a day. Look at the amount
of volume we had. That was a lot of
volume on that candle as we hit 169, but
then we ran into a seller. There was a
wall up there.
So, this is a really tricky spot because
you're right at a precarious point.
You're right at resistance and we want
to see it break. We want to see it pull
away, but it keeps tapping this level.
Now, usually with small caps, I'll
think, okay, we're going to tap this
level a few times and then whoever's
there selling is going to get sold and,
you know, their shares are going to get
sold and then we're going to push
through that level and finally we'll
pull away. We'll go to 16950, 170, 171,
172, and then we start to really open up
in earnest.
That's what I would expect from a small
cap. This is not a small cap.
So,
you know, can I really count on um this
to pull away
in that manner?
275 million shares of volume. There's
169 on the ask.
Now, I'm participating in the sense that
I'm still holding in my Schwab account,
but I'm not participating in the sense
that I'm um a little too nervous to add
up here in my big account. So there's
16950. We go go right up to the half
dollar. Can we go up to 170?
We dip back down to 16917 on the bid.
Right now, we're not seeing volume um
really increasing substantially on the
one minute chart or the 10-second chart.
We're remaining relatively consistent.
If we saw volume ramping up, that would,
you know, correlate with
typically increased momentum.
So, 16950 on the ask.
There's 16974.
16976.
New high of day.
16979.
Going up another 3 cents. 169.80.
169.85 is the new high.
So, we're moving a little more here.
169.94.
So coming up to 170
170 on the ask with a huge stack of
sellers.
So all of a sudden there it thins out a
little bit. All of a sudden there the
volume changed. We had a little shift.
We had a big burst of volume that went
through. What happens is the algorithms
respond to that. They pull back because
heightened volatility increases risk and
then they fill back in.
So, we got a topping tail, an upper
candle wick up to 171.
But a candle wick like that is bearish
because it shows us that while the price
moved higher, it also got pushed right
back down.
There was a 200,000 share buy order at
170
that went through the market.
So now we've got 171.
I'm Look, I'm I'm I'm glad to see this.
Um but what I don't like and what's
always disappointing is when you
struggle. Why did we struggle initially
here, right?
What we're seeing right here is what we
would typically expect to have seen
right here the second we broke this
level of resistance.
And it kind of struggled here and then
it pulls away and now it's opening up.
So up $5,500
from my 135 cost basis there on those
shares. Up 39,000 in my main account. I
didn't get back in. Just watching this
area from the sidelines.
New high a day 17290.
I don't think there's too many people
that are shorting this. So, I don't
think that we're truly going to get a
short squeeze. I just don't think
there's enough traders able to short
that we'll get a short squeeze.
So there we have that drop from 17290
all the way back down to 168.882.
Then a little bounce back up.
Another bigger red candle forming.
So now on the fiveminut you've got this
gravestone dogee this candle with a big
topping tail which is bearish and then
the next candle going red for a
pullback.
coming up towards 1:00
Eastern Standard Time.
So, a big rally back up there. The dips
are getting bought up.
Nice. Christian got the dip. Good for
you.
So typically I would look for a break
through the high. So the high of day is
7290.
But there's a high of this candle here
which is just under that level at 7270.
Buying for a quick break through the
high a day is like a scalp trade where
you get in at 7270 and sell in the break
through 173.
But the risk-to-reward doesn't really
work to do that on this price range
because if you if it goes wrong, you
could lose a dollar a share and your
upside the break of 173 is usually like
50 cents like right there. 17325 you're
usually taking some profit. So, when
you're risking a dollar to make only 50
cents, you've got to be right, you've
got to have really high accuracy in
order for that to work. And it can be
kind of demoralizing when you catch a
big loss because it'll wipe out two or
three of your winners. So, it ends up
being a little bit harder to maintain
that
high a day here is 173 174.
So now a little consolidation right
under 174. Some people would jump in
here and then look to take profit on the
break through that level. Similar to
what we were looking at at 173.
You still have the same issue with the
risk and reward not really being lined
up very well.
We often see that um when you come up to
that level and there's 120,000 share
seller, which there is in this case,
that uh people can kind of panic out of
it um who are in too high.
So, we did get that early um indication
from Bloomberg that the price was going
to be 175. Then it opened at closer to
150. Um, but now here we are back at 175
just about. High day is 174, but we're
getting close to 175.
So, another little rejection
now. 300 million shares of volume coming
up.
So, for those of you guys tuning in on
YouTube, we have a uh twoeek trial for
$20 at Warrior Trading that gives you
access to this software that you can see
right here. And we also have a simulator
that you guys can use uh that allows you
to practice the new strategies you're
learning in a safe environment, which is
what we want you to do. We don't want
you to put real money on the line until
you've first proven profitability in the
simulator.
So, in the simulator, you could be
jumping in using your hot keys, trading
the same way that I trade every day.
This software right here I use for
scanning. This is how I find stocks that
are moving in real time.
I am still curious if we get a power
hour squeeze on anything going into the
close.
I think there's a lot of u traders that
are still around today because of uh the
SpaceX IPO. So, it's possible that we
will see
um momentum into the
afternoon, but
be to be determined.
So, I'll put the link for the twoe trial
in the description
for this stream. So, you guys can check
that out if you'd like.
That also gives you access to my daily
broadcast where I share my market
commentary.
Traders certainly do seem to be buying
the dips on this, although
the dips are quite large.
So now people who bought that dip uh who
are actively trading this would likely
be taking profit around 174 at least a
little off the table and then maybe
holding a little bit to see if it breaks
through 174 and puts in another step
higher. Uh I often look at these
patterns as stairstepping. So one step
up, one step up, one step up. Uh these
are getting smaller uh which is not what
you really want to see. He'd prefer to
see them getting bigger and bigger and
bigger for building momentum. Uh but
this is again $173 a share, 555 million
share float. Today's the day a lot of
people are focusing on it, but on any
ordinary day, this would not fit my five
pillars of stock selection and I would
not trade it. The only exception um to
the price and float is that it's a very
hyped up stock and it's reasonable to
expect that it'll be highly volatile and
within that volatility is opportunity.
So right now um we had the high of day
of 17426. We technically broke through
it on this candle here um just after 1
p.m. So we're back under this 174 spot.
But since we previously broke it and
failed, that
sort of makes it a little bit worse.
Elon Musk being the 42% shareholder of
SpaceX
has a net worth today um that exceeds $1
trillion.
17474
17480 is the new high of day.
So you could see how in this instance
it's easier just to hold my existing
position from a good cost basis and not
try to trade in and out of it because
it's a little too expensive to buy it.
The dips are a little scary to buy as
well because they're big and it could
keep going the wrong way. Um, so it just
sometimes you get to a point and I would
almost classify this as a grinder right
now. It is grinding higher, but it's not
going parabolic.
Now, could it?
Well, I sort of don't think so. But, um,
I sort of don't because I think the
float is just too high. for uh there to
be that degree of uh supply or or
demand. And I think that um you don't
have the element of a short squeeze on
it because availability of shares to
borrow is very limited.
It's about 300,000 shares on the ask at
175.
So, I think it's probably fair to say
that um I could have been more
aggressive buying some of these dips
down in here, but um
it's not really the the usual spot where
I'm going to be aggressive.
So, as we come up here to 175, you could
see when we hit 175, we've got that
seller about
So, that seller actually pulled their
order back.
So, do we break 175? There's still about
five or six sellers at that price.
None of them appear to be a big sell
order, but they're clearly absorbing a
lot of buyers.
21,000 shares.
Interesting. You would think it would
have broken there. Look at how tight
this range is. You see how tight it is?
and we pop and then we drop and then we
come back up to 17435.
So look at look at all that volume right
there. This is a tugof-war.
So it pushes one way and then the other
way and then the other way.
Low of 17382,
high of 17550.
So, up about 6,000 in my uh longer hold
here with 147 shares.
Looking to see if we get another dip to
consider in my big account because I
can't really buy into the highs because
of the tugof-war up here.
But I don't know even if we get another
dip if I'll actually feel comfortable
buying it because I didn't feel
comfortable on these last two
I'll just check my scanners and see if
anything else is moving here at the
moment.
So now 176
high a day 17649. 9.
A lot of sellers at 17649. Do you see
how they're all stacked here?
Hundreds of thousands of shares at
17649. What an unusual place to put such
big orders.
Look at all those sellers all stacked up
there at 17649.
You can see them right down in here.
So we can watch to see around support.
We have this ascending support trend
line. So we can see if we come back down
to that area.
So, my first trade when it began trading
was at uh $15023.
That was my first trade, $25 a share
ago.
And um
my uh Schwab account, I was able to get
shares at 135, as you can see right
here,
but only 147. I asked for 4,250 shares,
but they only gave me a partial fill.
So let's see how much we dip down here.
Typically buying into weakness as this
is dropping
is a little risky um because you don't
know if someone else is going to panic
sell and you're going to get an even
bigger red candle. Uh but we have some
ascending support here. Now how valid is
that trend line? We don't, it's hard to
say for sure, but um we do have it
there. So, the low right now is 17329.
So, watching to see if 17329 breaks.
See, the challenge with buying this dip
is when you look at the five-minute
chart, you've got two, four, five big
green candles in a row. So, you have to
acknowledge that we are fairly extended
right here. Uh, but you don't want to
underestimate
how strong something can be.
So, we broke that level and we're
stairstepping down a little bit more. We
got a big flush all the way down to 172.
So, anyone who is using this as support,
right, the low of that candle bails out
right there. So, now you get a bigger
drop and an even bigger drop as more
people bail out. Now, that dip's not
working.
This has pushed uh sort of two steps
down. One step and it didn't rally back
up like it did on the last one. It's now
done a second big step down.
So our previous uh resistance here was
around 16869
and now we're coming back down closer to
that level.
So, I wouldn't like to see it break 170,
but um but it might. And if it does,
then you probably would look for 16869
as the next level of support.
EDHL is moving higher and it has a halt
level at 11:06.
So the halt level's now just moved up to
1129.
This is a stock that we traded um two
days ago
when it made this squeeze here up to a
high of
18. Oh no, it was yesterday. Uh
yesterday morning we traded that one. Uh
then pulled back, popped up a little bit
and has pulled back again.
So EDHL would really need to break
through like 1150
uh or maybe 12 to get more interesting.
Even then, it's it's a little tricky
because it's kind of on the back side of
this move, but um you know, 1182 to 1821
is a pretty big window. So, I can see
why some traders would be interested in
that. It's up 68% today.
So, I'll keep that on a side chart.
Earlier, we were looking at UBXG. Uh
UBXG has
this pre-market high of 1144, which I
also thought was interesting.
SpaceX right here on the side had that
bigger red candle is now pulling back a
little bit.
So you can see this um this is a replay
of the moment we IPOed.
So the moment we IPOed
uh we were showing 150 and
um we didn't know of course when it
would IPO when it would start trading uh
but we were watching it and we were
ready and all of a sudden it began
trading right there at 11:46 in about 45
seconds and you could see initially the
spread is 150 85 by 15090 halt levels
165 up 135 down and um initially we have
a little seller at 1501 and a pretty big
buyer at 150. And so as soon as I saw
this 2.8 million share buyer at 150, I
was like, "All right, I think I should
get in." So I punched it right here. But
notice that I filled at 150 and 43 43
cents. I filled a little high. And when
it didn't break immediately and this
started to get to be a smaller number, I
was like, uh oh, I may have made a
mistake and I need to get out before
that breaks because if it breaks, it's
going to be bad. So, I took my loss on
that first trade and then it ends up
rallying back up. Now, I save these
archives um and upload them for members
to watch later. This will go into the
section with other IPOs because IPO
trading is um it's a it's a it's a
specific
setup. It's sort of a specific strategy
and um so anyways then as it rallies
back up ended up getting back in and
taking more trades on it and as you can
see now I'm up quite a bit. So, this I'm
going to save um for uh members
as the live archive of SpaceX.
I'm not seeing really big candle wicks.
Um, we filter out stale data like that
to try to make sure the charts stay
clean.
So, this is dipping back down a little
bit more.
So, current time about 121.
So, um, still a little bit early
for power hour to begin.
So, we'll mark out the high here on
SpaceX.
17649.
It doesn't surprise me that um SpaceX
hasn't halted
um just because it's
is a bit um too expensive and the halt
bands are too far away.
Yep. So, I'm up 39,000 day trading
SpaceX right here. And I'm up another uh
5,500
on a few shares I got um through Charles
Schwab's early IPO um request.
system, whatever they call that.
So, sitting in the green today,
$84,320.78
in the day trading account and then
still holding these positions in Schwab.
No trades in the small account today. I
didn't see anything I really liked well
enough and um it was kind of um SpaceX
focused today.
UBXG popping up a little bit again
there. Breaking the volume weighted
average price.
Halt level is 856.
High of regular trading hours is around
9.
So, the halt level is um 883.
I'd like to see that halt level move up
a little bit.
Looks like I probably should have jumped
in for the break of VWAP, but
I think there's a good chance I'd be a
buyer on this if it can hold up a little
bit longer. But right now, I'm just
waiting it out.
So, what's the high of that candle?
High right now is about 82.
So, trades up here, the risk would be a
little higher.
Trying to make this window a little bit
bigger so I can see it better.
We'll keep SpaceX on the side there.
So, high volume on those green candles,
lighter volume on the red candle right
now, but it's dropped down quite a bit.
So, we're back into a rangebound area on
SpaceX.
UBXG coming back up a little bit more
there.
It's really tricky the way it pops up
and then drops down. I don't really know
why it's trading like that.
It's got 28 million shares of volume,
but
So, just staying tight right now. SPCX
is pulling back again in this
consolidation range. It's about 1:30.
So, we still have um
a couple more hours left in the market
before the 4M closing bell.
So, with um S&P coming back down a
little bit here,
I think that it's pretty clear the easy
trades are over and easy is a relative
term, but uh the easiest opportunities
seem to be behind us on
uh SpaceX as it's now pulling back. So,
you know, I am still holding a position
in um Thinker Swim here, uh which I've
got a great cost basis. So, I think I'm
just going to let that one sit for right
now. Um
but, you know, I'll see how it looks as
we get closer to the end of the day and
decide. As long as the candle closes
green to finish the day, I think I'll
feel pretty good about holding that into
um Monday. But in any case, so that's um
that's where we sit on SpaceX. Um given
there's only a couple hours left in the
trading session for regular trading
hours, UBXG was looking interesting for
a potential squeeze. Um, but it kept uh
especially on the 10-second chart, you
know, kind of was looking good from 8 up
to 9 and then knifes back down to 820
and then it comes back up and goes back
up to 920 and then drops back down to
780. And I don't really like that kind
of price action. Higher volume selling
right there on those candles. That's not
good. ADHL, we talked about that one a
little bit. said they kind of need to
break over $12 previous um sort of
pre-market resistance to get into this
room to 1821. That's not really
happening right now either. So, I think
that um none of that is surprising.
Usually, the best action is earlier in
the day and uh it's it's well past that
window now. So, I thought perhaps we
would see more opportunity today just
because of the SpaceX IPO and more
traders uh kind of sitting around and
watching. But um it doesn't seem like
there's anything else really to trade uh
that I could u I think do well on. So um
so what I'm going to do is I'm going to
end the stream here and I'll be back at
it uh bright and early on Monday morning
streaming at 7 a.m. for members at
Warrior Trading. So those of you guys on
YouTube who have checked out this free
broadcast, I hope you enjoyed it. I hope
it was eye opening for you. I trade
every day. I'm looking for volatility.
SpaceX was uh today's best opportunity,
but I find um stocks to trade pretty
much every day. So, I'll be back at it
bright and early on Monday morning.
Check out the twoe trial with the link
posted uh and pinned to the top of the
uh description here in the comments. And
uh reminder as always that trading is
risky. My results aren't typical. So,
manage your risk, take it slow, and
always practice in a simulator before
putting real money on the line. With
that, I'll see you guys back at it on
Monday morning.