Crypto's Spring Swoon, The SpaceX Stock Ecosystem 6/9/26

 Another mega IPO hits the pipe line if futures are higher. This is your morning call
 Good morning. I am Morgan Brennan with your morning call. Let's get a check on US stock futures
 after the NASDAQs first positive day in four and as you can see the rebound continuing or at least
 attempting to here pre market with all the major averages poised for a higher open today
 the Dow actually finished fractionally lower yesterday it was really semis a rebound in semis
 that drove the action yesterday a lot of attention speaking of on those chip names after
 Friday's washout yesterday's modest rebound right now as you can see right there on your screen
 more green for the largest semiconductor stocks in video up almost 1% Intel up 1.5% and others
 up to sandest corporation also jumping 3%. Treasuries if we get a check there ahead of key
 trade data today and of course a slew of inflation related reports over the next couple of days
 you can see it's a mixed picture across the curve here with the US 10 year treasury yielding
 4.55% right now so a bit higher the fed sensitive two year treasury 4.14% right now energy with
 President Trump telling reporters late yesterday that the US and Iran are quote in the final
 throws of what will be a very very good deal adding few sticking points remaining you could see
 crude oil prices are under pressure again this morning as well with WTI back below 90 bucks
 a barrel down about 2.2% right now 8929 is the level there Brent is also down almost 2% trading
 around 92 50 right now if we get a check on global markets a mixed session in Asia but big rebounds
 in Japan and South Korea up to and 8% respectively in Europe and mostly positive session so far we
 keep an eye there turning to our top story though open AI confidentially filing for an IPO with the SEC
 late yesterday setting the stage for what could be one of the largest public market debuts in history
 the disclosure coming just days before Elon Musk's SpaceX is set to start trading and a week after
 anthropic filed for its own initial public offering well let's get to CNBC senior technology
 correspondent Arjun Carpal in London with more on all of it Arjun great to see you
 yeah good morning to you Morgan look we it's a confidential filing so we don't have a lot of
 details at this point but CNBC reporting that this could happen as early as Q4 we don't have share
 pricing or valuation but if we think back to open AI's last publicly noted valuation it was
 more than 850 billion US dollars so be interested to see when they do come to market what they come to
 market as their company is also carrying out a tender offer for employees to sell shares at the
 current valuation as well way to give liquidity to a lot of their employees and shareholders at this
 point in time but you mentioned it comes very soon after anthropic confidentially filed for the IPO
 is the market is awaiting the SpaceX IPO as well and I think this is going to be all of these mega
 IPOs are going to be a real test for public market investor appetite for lost making companies
 but innovative companies and I think it's going to be a real test about how the market sees
 the next wave of AI companies right now there's been a lot of excitement around infrastructure
 companies when you think about the chip sector within video and others when you think about memory
 and some of this data-centered related build up but this new wave of companies are all about
 models it's all around the next frontier of AI development and I'll be interested to see how the
 public market actually value these companies and whether they sort of come up with new metrics to
 understand their business models and whether they've opened the gates to other companies to go
 public to Morgan exactly where I was going to go with you Arjun from my next question and that is
 what else is waiting in the wings here and is this actually going to push some of those timelines
 back given how much capital is going to be raised by the biggest of these AI names
 there's no doubt that the entire AI industry is watching how these go off in the public markets
 for a view on what the appetite is like right now and one of those companies actually is perplexity
 this is a company that uses models from the likes of anthropics for its own sort of chat bot
 product as it pushes more into agent to AI and actually have the chance to catch up with the CEO
 Arvind Shrinivas here in London and asked him what his plans are for an IPO let's just listen in
 agnostic of these two companies we were planning for something in 2028 so that still remains the
 case it is essential that these two companies have very successful IPOs and I think Google's equity
 race recently shows that the market wants to invest in AI frontier
 so while the perplexity CEO is watching very closely what is happening with this he says
 agnostic of these regardless of how these go we are planning for an IPO in 2028 of course
 this is going to be a big deal for the market open AI and anthropic and certainly for companies
 other companies in this ecosystem as well Morgan like perplexity we're looking at the public
 markets and how investors are going to react to these mega IPOs that are in the pipeline
 yeah and of course SpaceX kicking it all off later this week Arjun Carpal great to have you on
 we're also keeping nine data bricks which said that they were looking at 2027 now in the midst of all
 this we're going to turn to that other big IPO story that I just mentioned the countdown to
 SpaceX's public market debut on Friday an historic offering coming to market the lead up to the
 big event feeling a frenzy among investors looking for companies in the SpaceX ecosystem that are
 likely to benefit that includes our next guest Will Marshall is co-founder and CEO of Planet Labs
 shares are up over 65% so far this year and will it is great to have you on morning call so welcome
 to you thank you for joining me a lot to get to a lot to get to but I do want to start right here
 with how much of a milestone this is and what it means more broadly for the space industry and space
 sector well look it's a really exciting time in space and that's because space is booming I mean
 really we're seeing real world applications it seems far off but space is part of our everyday lives
 it's in our phones every time we use them and but those applications are really booming I mean we
 just reported our results last week 42% growth year over year which is incredible strong and also
 the answer to life the universe of everything first hitchhiker's guide to the galaxy fans you know
 we we did a fundraising off the back of it we're doing lots of deals I think that's the case the
 sector wide so it's really exciting to see SpaceX come in it's very very hot time yeah you just
 mentioned it you had strong Q1 results you raised your guidance as well you did announce this
 share sale 1.5 billion dollar capital raise of your own why was now the time to do that and how
 does it speak I think to this environment to raise funds to invest in the space economy that is
 well it's obviously the market is strong we did it on the back of really strong results as you
 said and raising guidance for the full year so we feel like it's really good we we have plenty
 of capital already but this gives us an option to raise more when we think that the conditions
 are best and and it's good to have dry powder to lean into growth you know we're seeing such strong
 growth as a said 42% growth and we want to lean into that invest behind that and have options
 for acquisitions have options for supply chain risk reduction you know so we have no immediate
 plans and needs but but it's good to have more capital on on the balance sheet yeah and of course
 planet is in the business of earth observation you and I've been talking about it for quite some
 time but it does seem like the rest of the world is awakening to this idea that we're seeing this
 convergence and this confluence of AI in space right now 100% I've been speaking for a while I mean
 you were just talking in the previous segment about next frontier in AI models and how important
 that is well the next frontier in AI models is all about real world models and real world models
 need real world data it stands to reason right so the chat TBT's and Gemini's of this world right
 now are mainly trained on the text of the internet that means they're very versatile about the
 text of the internet but they don't know much about the real world to have real world applications
 like we do in agriculture in civil government in you know all these different real world
 security around the world you need real world data right you know so we announced a few deals this
 this this quarter including one with John Deere where we're helping them with precision farming
 here in the UK we announced a partnership with the government of Scotland helping them with
 various things from monitoring biodiversity to other things the applications are booming partially
 because AI is bridging the gap between all this data and actual answers that can help them
 near term every day and so it's a really booming time and that's why I think there's so much
 and yeah we've been on this AI and space train we've we say planet is the first space and AI
 company I don't mean the data centers in space stuff that's cool and we're working on that space
 it is working on that too but I'm talking about how AI and space are helping today you know
 are those customers I was just talking about and many others we we announced a partnership with
 three partnerships with the US government two on maritime domain awareness this is where we
 were using AI to automatically track ships all around the world so that they have domain awareness
 of all the elicit activities and that's you know AI and space working together today right and again
 so this is where the next frontier of AI models are going space has all this amazing data to add
 to the mix and so it's part of where we're going you just mentioned data centers in space though
 I know you have a partnership with Nvidia you're also working with Google on this and when we're
 talking about edge computing at the literal edge of earth here so how far are we from fully
 truly realizing this technology yeah that really is edge compute that's great we put on our
 pelican spacecraft all those spacecraft going up this year we already launched three this year
 and we just sent another one to the launch site and they all are equipped with the Nvidia
 processes so that we can do the image processing at the edge in fact just this quarter we show the
 first results of that where we took a picture of a airfield automatically it did the recognition
 of of planes in that airfield and then just sent the results down and the satellite we just sent
 to the launch pair to Vanneberg for launch in the coming weeks also has satellite to satellite
 communications so if you have the Nvidia chips on board and satellite to satellite communication
 then you can get the answers back literally within minutes and traditionally it's taken hours to
 get that sort of data back and and going from hours to minutes really helps real world applications
 take the floods sorry the fires in LA you know we had images a few hours later it was helping the
 first responders the American Red Cross and so on but how we had it in minutes maybe it could have
 helped save more lives so getting that data quicker so this is again real world and then to data
 centers in space for their own sake yes we're working with Google on their Suncatcher project where
 we're flying their TPUs into orbit there's their fastest AI processors to test how and what it would
 take to put them into large clusters in orbit because we think very soon it will just simply be
 cheaper to put them in space and if we they're cheaper in space we will do that and in addition
 there's benefits that it doesn't then compete with water and electricity in people's communities
 so that is where it's going that's a longer term project but it's an exciting one too
 just very quickly well when we say longer term project two to three years is that reasonable
 is that realistic or maybe longer a bit longer than that I would say I agree with what Sundar
 from Google said when he said within 10 years we expect most computing spend to happen in space
 I think that's about right and the launch cost should come down to the point where it makes it
 economically cheaper within maybe five years but it takes a bit of time to get that technology
 right so you know we have a lot of complexity all the rack of processors on each satellite you have
 to have clusters of satellites are working together in closed formation flying so there's a lot to
 get done technologically to make this work but yeah five to ten years should be cheaper in space
 okay well Marshall from Planet Labs great to have you on thank you great to see you
 with shares of planet up two percent right now pre-market well we've got a lot more to come here
 on morning call including
 the Spurs wins what a response from San Antonio they do it again an inspiring road win
 and they are right back of the series the Nick Lee cut two games to one
 the next win streak stopped at 13 after a nail biting defeat in New York City last night but
 despite the loss shares of Madison Square Garden sports hitting a record all time highs ahead of
 Game 4 which is tomorrow you can see basically around the flatline right now though plus Apple
 fails to impress and what was Tim Cook's final worldwide developer's conference yesterday keep
 in mind it's still going on for the next few days I was the keynote putting all of its eggs into
 the Siri basket and later what Calchi prediction markets are saying about Bitcoin and when it will
 retake a hundred thousand dollars at a very busy hour still ahead one morning call returns
 well that might be Hong Kong on your screen but stocks here in the U.S. are looking to continue
 to recoup more of Friday's sell-off chip stocks leading their covering yesterday's gains and this
 morning as you can see right there in your screen futures are higher with all the major averages
 pointed towards gains at the open for more let's bring in Phil D'Angelo and managing director
 of focused wealth management great to have you here on set welcome welcome good morning Morgan how
 are you all right so so what do you think here yesterday if you look at the S&P micron and Nvidia
 accounted for more than 98 percent of the overall averages gain is we talk about the concentration
 of the market does that continue here or is there room for more rotation yeah look I mean you know
 our take is that the markets have been very hot in those top tech names of the sectors I think
 you will see broadening out though as summer comes I mean tech has had an amazing run right we've
 actually seen a full years worth of returns more than our firms expected by now so you would
 think that you know we have a lot of economic data headed our way it's the summertime I think markets
 will start to cool off but I do think that this rally will broaden don't forget markets can
 withstand higher rates for the right reasons all right that's interesting to hear you say because
 that was my next question it is sort of to how to think about the bond market what we're seeing
 with this run up in rates again you've got a combination of so far hot economic data
 much stronger than expected jobs report on Friday expectation that you're going to have
 headline CPI number with a forehandle come tomorrow you've got the continued Middle East disruptions
 I know potentially we're getting to a deal here we'll see whitehouses push to get average
 tariff rates back to the pre-scotus levels I mean all of this sounds like a very sticky inflationary
 environment so perhaps not surprising to see that the market is now pricing in hikes yes one to do
 hikes this yes yes can stocks withstand it yeah I mean look this is not a 2022 scenario right where
 everyone is afraid because you know you're going to have a huge sell-off in the NASDAQ faced on
 higher rates I think when you really look at the numbers and and look at the breakdown what we're
 seeing is as I said prior you know the markets can withstand higher rates for the right reasons
 this economy is running really hot when you have tax cuts when you have deregulation when you have
 all those things going on in the economy markets are going to move and you know I'm expecting
 inflation to remain a little bit sticky right now I mean look at the 10-year Treasury that's calling
 this whole thing 455 a little bit too sticky if it comes down from there I think we can withstand
 this range but I do think that we have to be prepared four rates to hang in right around here
 as oil comes down to your earlier point as the war gets on or maybe you start to have a cease
 fire or definitely maybe more quiet on that front I think that the markets will hang around here
 for the summertime as an old expression that my colleague Glenn Goldstein used to use and I think
 come the fall you have the midterms coming but ultimately rates at these levels are good for the
 economy and again markets can withstand higher rates for the right reasons and this is a growth
 type of economy right now I mean these companies are all coming public really because our capital
 markets and how well they're doing and as David Solomon said last week was at lunch at the
 economic club of New York actually one of your own CNBC's own Leslie Picker interviewed him
 yep and as he said these capital markets are great to tap right now and that's what's going on
 and that's what happens in a good economy all right we get that first key test on Friday with
 SpaceX the old angel it's great to have you thank you well straight ahead why one early investor
 says enthusiasm for SpaceX maybe getting ahead of itself and Friday's first trades but first
 we're watching shares of GSK confirming it is buying newvalent for 10.6 billion dollars is an
 all cash deal and a bid to boost its cancer therapy portfolio among its offerings newvalent has two key
 treatment treatments that are pending FDA approval they're set to launch later this year with what some
 say could be market moving results you can see markets are you moving around this this morning
 newvalence up it was 39 percent pre-market and GSK is down to an half percent we'll be right back
 welcome back to morning call we got a news alert for you in video CEO Jensen Wong declining
 an invitation from senator Elizabeth Warren to testify before the Senate banking committee
 Warren had asked him to speak on a video's business in China and US export controls among other
 topics Huang said while he is quote unable to attend he did offer to host Warren or other committee
 members that in videos headquarters well Apple rolling out the long delayed AI upgrade to
 Siri at its worldwide developers conference that happened yesterday as it tries to close the gap
 with chat GPT and others Apple says the new series more conversational with the ability to analyze
 what's on a user screen and locate details such an address mentioned in an old message even if
 it was never saved Apple is also leaning on partners to power part of its AI strategy with some
 models built using Google's Gemini and Nvidia chips the early reception has been we'll call
 it measured shares falling nearly 2 percent yesterday about halfway through that presentation facing
 pressure again this morning down fractionally right now trading right right around 301 a share
 let's bring in Richard Kramer founder and senior analyst at Aritae Research Richard it's great
 to have you back on the show this is what happens right we have these worldwide developer conferences
 with Apple are they unveiled their new iPhone and their new slate of devices and the stock tends to
 sell off am I wrong well you have to put in the context of the fact that the stock is up 50 percent
 true or over 50 percent in the last 12 months so we've seen plenty of instances in the market
 of late where stocks have performed incredibly well and there's it doesn't take a lot to entice
 investors to take profits I think the message of the Apple event was that they're developing
 products for the mass market not for technicians or people who are more technically proficient but
 they want to have everyday tools that mass market consumers can use and I think this is the launch
 of a relaunch of voice as the new user experience yeah and I guess the point I was making because
 you're right I think it's like the second best performing mag seven year to date as well is it
 tends these events tend to be sell the news events here's what got my attention apple software
 chief mc the keynote he kind of took a shot at other tech companies aggressive approach to AI
 said quote some appear to be racing forward seemingly pursuing AI for the sake of AI without
 clear regard for the people all of us that it's ultimately meant to serve are they drawing a
 line in the sand here in terms of them versus some of the other players especially when it comes to
 the slow measured adoption of AI as some of the tech is maybe still a little buggy or untested here
 well I think they drew that line in the sand about six or seven years ago when they started to
 restrict the use of personal data across the you know the apple identifier across the system
 and you know you you've doubtlessly morgan seen all these ads of apple pushing how how much
 it protects your privacy so this is very much a part of its core message to consumers that they
 have unbelievable consumer trust compared to some of the other AI services they're going to be
 incredibly cautious about hallucinations or or elements of AI which may feel threatening to
 consumers and they've also as usual held back the most advanced models for the for the high-end
 phones only which encourages consumers to mix up just as we've seen in the past five years people
 buying pro versions or more expensive versions of the iPhones so it's both a good commercial strategy
 but it's really creating that separation with some of the other AI offers in the market it's like
 you took my next question out of my mouth I was going to ask is this the fact that they do that
 does this continue to drive or prolong this upgrade cycle that we're already seeing a and b what does
 it mean for this partnership with others like google as well when you think about apple and
 this ecosystem overall so I think you know there was certainly a dose of humble pie eaten at last
 years wwdc when they had to admit that siri wasn't ready and apple intelligence wasn't fulfilling
 its promise and I think they went back and and realized that look they've been doing business with
 google for well over a decade there's billions of dollars of search advertising revenue that goes
 from google to apple apple is according to the information and others top three customer google
 cloud so these companies know how to do business with each other and I think apple as they
 testified in the antitrust trial for google pick the best product so so I think this this sort of
 partner strategy isn't something that new for apple and actually the you know we've long
 expected that they would have this partnership with google because the mountain view in kupertino
 are eight miles apart from one another in silicon valley all right we're sure kramer great to have
 you on thank you we'll still on deck we've got more than a trading day away but investors already
 positioning for tomorrow's major inflation report what could be the highest print in three years
 when we're talking about cpi get ppi right behind that too so it's a big week for inflation
 our morning call through is going to weigh in we're back after this
 I'm working friend and welcome back to morning call let's get a check on you with stock futures
 after the nasdaq's first positive day in for yesterday you can see right there on your screen
 futures are higher all the major averages are poised for gains at the open the Dow is trying
 to avoid three down days in a row as you can see right there currently about 132 points will
 treasuries ahead of key trade data today and then of course other economic data throughout the
 week a mixed picture across the curve with the US 10 year treasury yielding 4.55% right now fed
 sensitive to your 4.14% if we get a check on global markets to was a mixed session in Asia but
 big rebounds in Japan and South Korea those are up to and 8% respectively led by what else
 semiconductor rebound here and in Europe a mostly positive session so far as you can see
 there on your screen the footsie 100 is the loan major average slightly lower here we get a
 check on the mornings latest headlines though open AI confidentially filing for an IPO the SEC
 in the filing open AI says it has not decided on timing yet but because of expected leaks
 they're announcing this anyway the company adding there are still things that they want to do
 as a private company now this as AI rival perplexity in comments to CNBC says no matter what happens
 with open AI or inthropics offering see plans to hold off for at least another year
 agnostic of these two companies we were planning for something in 2028 so that still remains the
 case it is essential that these two companies have very successful IPOs and I think Google's equity
 race recently shows that the market wants to invest in AI frontier and now to New York and what
 was the first NBA finals game at Madison Square Garden since 1999 president Trump treated last
 night to the next first loss in 13 games following 111 to 115 in game three against the San Antonio
 Spurs the series now two to one continues at the garden tomorrow for game four a lot of attention
 here in New York on that despite the loss though still in for investors flocking to MSG stock that
 is now sitting at an all time high while the president was court side though his office was
 hard at work officially nominating Todd Blanche as the next U.S. Attorney General to replace
 Pam Bondy after her exit in early April Blanche had been serving in the role on an acting
 basis for more than two months and we're watching oil as president Trump says no sticking points
 remain in peace talks with Iran speaking to reporters before boarding Air Force one overnight the
 presidents adding a deal would allow the street of Hormuz to open quote immediately and she could
 see right there on your screen T.I. In the final throws of what will be a very very good deal
 that will not allow in any way shape before nuclear weapons and such and the straight will open
 up right away it'll open up immediately upon signing which could be in two or three days
 well and you can see right there on your screen just before we took that sound bites WTI is down
 back below 90 bucks a barrel if we turn to what's becoming a very crowded IPO pipeline
 full IPO pipeline the MSCI confirming rules that should clear the way for SpaceX to be added
 to its indexes shortly after its IPO which debuts later this week this is a move the world that
 would force investment funds with trillions of dollars in assets tied to MSCI's indexes to buy
 into SpaceX joining me now is Andrew Chanin co-founder and CEO for CIRAM
 Cassodian of the UFO ETF which does not hold SpaceX specifically but has a lot of names
 in its orbit and let's be very clear this is actually the first this was the first
 of the ETFs pure place space ETFs to come to market you were early to the game Andrew it's great
 to have you on what are you seeing in anticipation of the SpaceX IPO within the fund we've been seeing
 a lot of volume we've been seeing a ton of pickup and coverage and attention to the fund really going
 back to the end of last year and we're even getting our fund approved on a lot of advisor platforms
 so despite the fund being out for over seven years it's really now being opened up to more
 institutional investors and high net worth clients for us that's really exciting times will you buy
 into SpaceX when it goes public so our fund tracks the vetify space index they just recently
 announced a new rule for fast track inclusion for mega cap pure place space companies the way that
 the indexes is talking to investors now they're looking at SpaceX IPO happens on Friday potentially
 being added to the indexes early as this coming Tuesday yeah I mean a lot of us being made
 of the valuation for SpaceX 1.7 1.8 trillion dollars here they're obviously bringing through a lot
 of cash as they build out both starship and get that to operation but also perhaps in an even
 bigger way the big bet on AI and AI compute how do you see there's the company and there's the
 disruptive and innovative nature of the company and then there is the stock itself how do you see
 this playing out in coming weeks coming months I don't think anyone has a clue and you hear people
 talking about you know sky high valuations and and potentially being overvalued but that's what
 makes a market and we think that there are a lot of supporters of Elon Musk and almost anything that
 will do there are people that aren't as favorable but if you look at a lot of the companies that he's
 done so many of them have done some incredible things for humanity SpaceX is doing great things
 for not just humanity but also for US national security and defense and you know I can't imagine
 what the space industry would look like today without SpaceX yeah and I think case at point you are
 seeing this and we have for now a number of months this dramatic rewriting higher in the already
 publicly traded space stocks case at point we just had well Marshall from planet labs on at the
 top of the hour I know planet as a as a holding in UFO here's what he had to say about data centers
 and this convergence of AI in space I agree with what Sundar from Google said when he said within 10
 years we expect most computing spend to happen in space I think that's a route right and the
 launch cost should come down to the point where it makes it economically cheaper within maybe five
 years and it but it takes a bit of time to get that technology right I think the bottom line here is
 AI compute on orbit is coming it's happening the question is when does it happen and perhaps the
 second following one question behind that is when do those launch costs come down to help
 enable that happening which of course is tied up with starship at SpaceX to but it seems like
 investors are coming to in part because of the SpaceX IPO and what Elon Musk has been saying
 coming to this understanding that the next tranche the future tranche of economic unlock and
 realization of AI is going to happen with space your thoughts so it's tough to imagine a company
 that's better positioned for this next wave of potentially in orbit compute than a SpaceX they have
 hardware they have you know AI properties they potentially have indeed themselves for this and so
 for SpaceX to get involved in this you know certainly makes a lot of sense and if you look back
 about a year ago there's probably no one out there predicting a SpaceX IPO happening this year
 and I was probably one of the first people when the rumor broke towards the end of last year
 about them potentially being in a rush to do this IPO as soon as this this summer was thinking I
 wonder if it's because of this opportunity to try to move the move the finish line earlier for
 getting compute in space and so you know there there is a reason that these companies are talking
 about it this isn't far-fetched science fiction there is a need there are environmental reasons for
 this but you know I even work with earlier stage private companies that are working on solutions
 for compute so this is something that's coming from the biggest companies in the world and the
 smallest ones that people haven't even heard of so it makes sense that they're looking for this
 the timeline will be tough to say but if there's a company better positioned to do this in space
 than SpaceX I'd love to meet them yeah and in the meantime you have this constellation of other
 companies that continue to thrive and potentially will benefit as more comes online through SpaceX as
 well to your point Andrew Channon it's great to have you on thank you Morgan well a lot more to come
 here on morning call including digging into Bitcoin's fight to bounce back working to hold above
 the 60,000 mark it's the single factor our next guest says it will be critical to adding the momentum
 what is it we'll find out and as we have to break a check on shares of BYD Alibaba Baidu and also Neo
 Pentagon adding those companies to the list of entities linked to China's military
 puts them on the US government's blacklist Baidu and Baidu have rejected the claims
 Neo saying it will work with the Pentagon to correct this inclusion those shares are actually
 higher pre-market but when you make the Pentagon's list that tends to put you in a position for
 all kinds of export restrictions and regulatory controls and other things so something to watch
 here morning call during fact well come back let's get a market flash and galaxy digital shares
 are hired this morning after surging more than 20% yesterday founder and CEO Mike Novigratz
 revealing the company is building what he says will be the largest single campus data center in
 America shares are about 1% right now Novigratz adding they have already leased out half of the capacity
 well Bitcoin giving back some of yesterday's game and back below 63,000 it got a bounce
 following news that strategy about more than $100 million last week just a week after selling
 some holdings for the first time in four years Bitcoin is still deep in the red since hitting
 its all-time high of $126,000 down nearly 50% from there the prediction markets don't expect a big
 recovery with just 21% of people on cow she's seeing Bitcoin back above 100,000 by January
 but joining me now is Thomas Perfumo chief economist at crypto platform Kraken and Thomas it's
 great to have you on the show let's start right there what's going on with Bitcoin what's going on
 with crypto overall right now? Sure the the story really over the last month has been one around
 capital rotation and so one of the most fascinating things to see is that up until last week we had a
 13-day sequential streak of capital flows outside of the Bitcoin ETFs mind you the last record
 prior to that was eight days in a row and so it's been really heavy and consecutive days of selling
 out of the Bitcoin ETFs to the tune of about four and a half billion dollars over that stretch
 and even more a couple over the last couple trading sessions and so in my opinion a lot of this has
 to do with this short-term trader rotation into things like semiconductors AI narratives and then
 of course the upcoming SpaceX IPO which represents one of the biggest liquidity events I would say
 in history certainly for an IPO. In other words people pulling capital from NASA at class like this
 to put it to work and something like SpaceX when that comes to market. That's correct one fun
 data point that I'm throwing out now is that over the last six years there have been two occasions where
 Google search trends in the US for SpaceX came anywhere close to the keyword Bitcoin it happened
 the first time in May 2020 when SpaceX did their first manned mission it's happening now when
 we prior to their IPO. Huh interesting so so how much of the down draft that we've seen recently in
 Bitcoin then is actually in fact tied to strategy selling some Bitcoin and a lot of chatter around
 unrealized realized losses how much of it is really these other macro dynamics or are there
 market moving dynamics that you just laid out. I think it's really been a little bit of an overhang
 for microstrategy but if you think about it they really only ever sold 32 Bitcoin represents about
 two and a half million dollars. That's poetry compared to the four and a half five dollars of
 outflows we've seen from the ETS over the last month and so the real story right now is the ETS
 rotating out into these other plays for example DRAM a semiconductor ETF or memory ETF that launched two
 months ago has taken in 12 and a half billion almost 13 billion dollars of capital inflows rivaling
 some of the records that Bitcoin ETFs broke actually two and a half years ago and so from my
 perspective we're really just going through this washout where in the short term when you have
 these liquidity rotations it can feel very zero sum because investors just indiscriminately sell
 one asset typically under performing assets and rotate it into the hottest trend and so my personal
 view is that I think over the next couple days as the books close for the SpaceX IPO be really
 interesting to see how Bitcoin ETF on settle but microstrategy for now I think has been more
 of a narrative overhang than it has been the actual driver of the sell off. All right Thomas Perfumo
 it's great to have you on appreciate the context thank you thank you thank you well we had to break
 don't miss live golf CEO Scott O'Neill that's today at 12 30 p.m. Eastern as questions swirl about
 the organization's future your morning call crews coming up after this though don't want to miss that
 it's time for your call sheet where we look at the topics driving the trading day ahead crew members
 today Ryan Dietrich Carson group also a CNBC contributor Chris Verona strategist and Doug Boneparth
 of Bonfied Wealth also a CNBC financial advisor council member great to have you all here welcome
 welcome we got a bunch to get through we can do it I know we can Doug I'm going to start with you
 I'm going to pick up the conversation we were just having before the break with our guest from
 Kraken and that is the fact that we've seen this down draft in Bitcoin and he argues that actually
 one of the biggest things driving it right now is the SpaceX IPO the fact that people are taking
 profits or or just moving money around amid this capital raise so just want to get your thoughts
 on that and how much of a big event this could be more broadly for the markets sure I mean that
 makes sense people are taking their speculative risky assets you know it's like we're all right I
 want this other maybe speculative more risky asset here right but you're comparing Bitcoin to
 SpaceX and these are two very different things but yeah were you getting the capital but with
 Bitcoin specifically about 50% drawdown from all time highs I mean I've been a holder since 2013 this
 is what 5th 6th 850% drawdown or more you're obviously participating in a volatile asset you should
 expect this really you're like you're you're you're hardcore Bitcoin guy that's like breaking news
 to me right early minor there's a story there okay we'll get into that Chris want to get your
 thoughts on this in general because we also got the open AI filing and the topics in the pipeline here
 you had the Google capital raise last week reports that you could get others piling into just how
 does it speak to the market environment well I still think there's certainly appetite for this and
 kind of if you kind of put this in context of what we've seen historically I still think we're a
 far cry away from the really euphoria that accompanied these IPOs in 99 and I know there's so much
 talk of how narrow this market is but let's put it in context you still have 60% of the S&P above
 the 200 day right here that was like 30% of the March 2000 top so yes it's not the broadest market
 we've ever seen but it's a far cry from that 1999 cup all right Ryan your thoughts on all of this
 no great stuff thanks for me back you know building on what Chris just said there you think about
 Friday right Friday I know the SP was down a lot worst day of the year but 240 stocks the S&P 500
 were higher and one of the thing about sediment we saw near record put volume on the QQQ and the SPY
 on Friday so we saw something like that on a 2% pullback back in May if you might remember actually
 a few down days in May everybody freaked out in a couple days and I'm not saying after a 19 and a
 half percent rally in two months we can't have a little more consolidation maybe even a little more
 weakness but Morgan that panic that comes in on just any bad news or any weakness that's probably
 a bullish thing overall yeah I am gonna go back to this idea of raising capital right now in this
 market where is it all gonna come from is there enough liquidity Ryan and you know do we see
 some disturbances if you will cross asset classes well I think there's plenty of liquidity I
 mean you just look at the economy I mean they cut just last week we saw better I assume data on
 services we saw manufacturing I mean I get it after this rally but I you look at like health care
 took the baton last week we've seen industrials financials I mean I'm Chris can talk about
 financials I know he has been looking at I mean a lot of financials look at regional banks are
 hitting like the highest level they've been at a long time I mean I think just that baton getting
 passed around I know we all talk about the IPOs and tech and I get it because they've been the
 hottest area for sure but let's just remember keep a diversified portfolio stay overweight equities
 in an inflationary growth environment that's how you're gonna benefit and that's what we've been
 saying all year all right Chris we want to save up financials I think this is what was so remarkable
 frankly about Friday you know the queues down nearly five percent breath on the Russell 3000 was
 about even one to one you know where does money go when they start to sell tech I think health care
 is emerging here I think regional banks is Ryan notes certainly look fantastic here and they've
 you know navigated the flat and curve at a midterm year frankly quite well I think regionals are
 about to break out and then even there's a little hint of life from discretionary here remember I
 think Ryan makes a good point about the PMI PMI is 54 right now you typically don't begin fed tight
 in cycles with a PMI still that low I think you have to be talking about 57 58 59 before you
 reintroduce the risk of worse raising rates interesting well you're saying that and Doug I
 mean we have a market that is starting to price in the possibility of rate hikes how much of this
 now is going to hinge on some of these inflation reports I think a lot of it is um I think
 both retail investors however need to understand if you go back just a little more than a year we're
 talking April of 2025 right we had a 20 percent drawdown only to absolutely rip it through to the
 end of the year most retail investors can listen to this and pay attention and they should but they
 should also be prepared for the fact that things can get volatile very quickly and that's really where
 they're going to be tested Ryan said it best be diversified but also be ready to take advantage of
 opportunities that's checking your liquidity levels and just checking overall where your positions are at
 all right Ryan in light of that I know we've talked about it before we're gonna we're gonna revisit
 here because we do a CPI tomorrow with PPI on Thursday I mean we're seeing it's not just sticky
 inflation it's a re acceleration here particularly on the top line um Ken stocks with stand that
 especially if the feds start to hike again potentially here or at least a bond market and a dollar
 that are that are moving towards a tightening cycle anyway now Morgan we think stocks can hang in
 there even with inflation accelerating a little bit right we've said all year inflationary growth
 environment the big question though is will the fed hike like you just said I mean we've been seeing
 inflation brought it out right it's not just about services or goods it inflation brought it
 out even before the war started we don't think the fed's going to do anything we think the fed is
 on hold that potentially is even a little more dovish with the market expects and that's probably
 still going to be net net positive for stocks maybe not for bonds but that's why we're underway bonds
 here still all right Chris your thoughts listen I think when you look at rates in particular Morgan this
 is not just about inflation economic surprises have confirmed here the moves in yields from
 call it four to four fifty four sixty here has been just so much about growth as it has about
 the other side here five year break even inflation rates are actually back to where they were
 before the war even started so I think there's much more of a growth side to this um and you see
 it with real rates breaking out you see it with industrials I mean look at stocks like united
 rentals or ranger or fast and all the the rails and the truck these are pro growth stories I don't
 think it's as much about inflation as many think all right key context great conversation thank
 you to our morning call crew you guys rock uh if we just get a quick check on stock futures higher right now