Markets rally on AI and earnings as policy and geopolitics add risk 4/27/26

 I'm Morgan Brennan, and this is your morning call.
 Good Monday morning. It's great to be back with you. Let's get a check at U.S. stock futures
 with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ, both closing at record highs last Friday. You can see it's
 the mixed picture this morning, although fractional moves with the down S&P poised to open
 lower and the NASDAQ slightly higher. If we take a look at the treasury market as well,
 you see bond yields ticking higher this morning across the curve, U.S. 10-year treasury yield
 4.314% right now. For the dollar index, if we take a check there too, you can see dollar
 slightly weaker against other major currencies, and that is playing out in the index this morning
 98-28. And finally, let's take a look at energy with crude coming off of its best week.
 Since early March, and as you can see, Marching higher, again this morning with WTI at 2%
 96-31 per barrel right now, and up more than 2% for Brent crude at $107.70 per barrel.
 This of course, after we saw the U.S. cancel its plans to send its delegation to Pakistan
 over the weekend. If we get a check on the action around the world as well, J.P.
 Long has the trade out of Asia, Steve Sedgwick has the early trading in London. Gentlemen,
 it's great to see you, if not in person this week, at least from afar. Steve, let's kick
 it off with you.
 Morgan, I absolutely love working with you and J.P. and Scott and Deidre last week.
 It's just fantastic that we could all get together in Asia. But look, European markets
 last week were down a couple of percent, and really not enjoying that upside that the
 U.S. earnings season is giving to the U.S. tech, and then the broader market as well.
 But markets are seeing a tepid start to trade here in Europe as investors digest the latest
 developments in the Iran War. Anticipation also building ahead of major earnings, as you
 know better than I do, on this week on both sides of the Atlantic, and a series of rate decisions
 across the globe, including the ECB and the Bank of England, but difficult to see how they
 can do anything.
 There may be no cutting for the foreseeables future, maybe even a nod to high acts from
 the ECB.
 So oil and gas stocks, once again, leading the way in Europe this morning, tracking the
 overnight gains in crew prices after talks between the U.S. and Iran failed to materialize
 this weekend.
 On the downside, we're seeing some red in the rate-sensitive sectors, such insurance
 and real estate as yields, tick higher ahead of those key rate decisions.
 Now food and beverage are our biggest under-performer in the session so far, let me hand it back
 to you.
 All right, Steve Cedric, great to see you.
 Hawkes holds.
 That seems to be the takeaway as we go into this week or expectations, I should say, going
 into this week for all the central bank decisions we'll get, perhaps including Bank
 of Japan later tonight.
 But J.P.
 Young, mostly higher session in Asia, plus new data from Chinese industrial sector.
 Let's get to you for more.
 Yeah, good morning, more to you guys out there more again.
 A very good morning, actually, for Asian markets, which manages shrug off the specter of
 those high energy prices.
 We have a couple of records actually here that seems to be in broken.
 You see the Nikkei 225 here, now about 60,000, and the South Korean cost be breaching 666,
 not 677, breaching 6600 for the first time in history, and it's been a very, very good
 start to the trading week.
 And the reason why it's good is a fairly straightforward and simple one.
 After Friday's blowout session for the Philip Delkis, and we conducted a lot of chip stocks
 out of the US, that confidence seems to have carried over the chip related stocks out
 here.
 Whenever you see the likes of Taiwan semiconductor flexing as it did today, you see the
 tie-axx really getting a pretty decent boost.
 And when the kings of D-Ram, the likes of Samsung, and SK Heinex perform as they did and
 surges they did, that gives the South Korean cost be a boost as they showed at Monday's
 close.
 A little bit more new ones though when you look at Japanese markets.
 And while the likes of a test of chip equipment makers, advanced and Tokyo Electron did quite
 well in very well in the day session, Softbank, the parent of arm holdings, failing to take
 any comfort or strength from arm holdings very strong Friday session, they actually pulled
 back.
 Now, we take a look at Chinese markets, take a look at the semiconductor stock, they're
 also getting a boost after deep seek launch their latest AI model with a promise of possibly
 more demand for some of these Chinese related chip stocks.
 So it's not just chips from the US, it seems Chinese chips also getting a boost so far
 this Monday.
 Morgan, good morning to you.
 I hope you got some chili crab rice before you go back to the US and we miss you out
 here.
 I miss you too and I did and also black pepper crab and those were some of the highlights
 of the trip to Singapore, other than seeing you, of course, and covering converge.
 Have a good rest of your Monday.
 We'll see you tomorrow.
 Let's turn now to the Middle East peace talks between the US and Iran stalling out.
 As a second face to face in Pakistan appears less and less likely and certainly once again
 keeping energy prices elevated in response.
 We just touched on that but Goldman Sachs this morning, raising its Q4 forecast for Brent
 and WTI to $90 to $83 per barrel, $90 per barrel, $83 per barrel respectively.
 Let's set it out to Dan Murphy and Abu Dhabi with more.
 Dan.
 Hey, Morgan, welcome back.
 Well, it's another week of war and markets opening up this morning with a straight-of-home
 who's still closed and no clear path to resolution.
 The diplomatic track hit another wall over the weekend.
 President Trump calling off Steve Whitkopf and Jared Kushner's visit to Islamabad saying
 Tehran's latest offer simply fell short.
 Meanwhile, Axios reporting this morning that Iran has now put forward a new proposal
 through Pakistani mediators.
 It involves reopening the straight-of-home moves, formalizing a ceasefire, but deferring
 nuclear negotiations to a later phase.
 Now, it's unclear whether the offer to kick the nuclear can down the road is genuine
 or whether the White House would ever accept it.
 For now, Washington seems to be betting the stranglehold on Iranian oil exports in
 Hormuz does what diplomacy has so far not done.
 Meanwhile, Iran's foreign minister holding talks in Muscat and Islamabad over the weekend,
 he's now preparing to meet President Putin in St. Petersburg, seeking to firm up ties with
 the allies that Iran still has left.
 Morgan, as to what to watch out for today, it's also understood that President Trump is
 expected to convene his national security team to review options and next steps, so we're
 likely to get more clarity on where things stand after that meeting, with this war now
 on the cusp of crossing the two-month mark.
 Morgan?
 All right, Dan Murphy.
 Thank you.
 Two months.
 Well, before we get you set up for the big week ahead, let's first take a look at the
 weekend that was, because in addition to the latest regarding U.S. Iran talks or lack
 thereof, we've got details out of Washington, events out of Washington.
 The new details emerging about the man suspected of opening fire at Saturday night's White
 House Correspondence Center, which I was at with quite a few other people.
 The FBI and Secret Service searching a home in Torrance, California, believed to be associated
 with 31-year-old Cole Thomas Allen, who, according to his LinkedIn profile, graduated from
 the California Institute of Technology in 2017, before getting his masters in computer
 science from Cal State University, Dominguez Hills in 2025.
 Now, investigators say Allen displayed anti-Trump sentiments and described his targets as
 administration officials in various writings, also sending messages to family members apologizing
 for his actions moments before he charged a Secret Service checkpoint.
 Ahead of Cole's arraignment in federal court today on NBC's Meet the Press yesterday,
 acting U.S. Attorney General Todd Blanche said it does appear, the suspect, set out to target
 people that work in the administration, likely including the president.
 We're still investigating motive, and that's something that will necessarily take a couple
 of days, at least.
 We believe that he was targeting administration officials in this attack, attempted attack,
 but that's, again, quite preliminary.
 Well, turning to the other big news on Capitol Hill, Senator Tom Tillis says he's dropping
 his efforts to block Kevin Warsha's confirmation hearing after the Justice Department ended its
 criminal probe of sitting Chair Jay Powell.
 Tillis, speaking with NBC's Meet the Press yesterday, we were very clear that we had
 the sureances from the DOJ that I need it to feel like they were not using the DOJ as
 a weapon to threaten the independence of the Fed.
 So this will allow Mr. Warsha to move on with his confirmation on time.
 Well, Senate Banking Committee is scheduled to vote and push that nomination forward Wednesday
 morning.
 Same day we get that decision from the FOMC, so certainly something to watch here.
 As if all of this weren't enough, investors are also bracing for the busiest week of
 earnings season with a third of the S&P 500 and a third of the Dow industrial reporting
 this week.
 It's highlighted by five of the mag seven members on Wednesday and Thursday representing
 roughly a quarter of the S&P's market cap.
 We will also get several central bank decisions, including the Fed, which I just mentioned
 on Wednesday.
 And what will likely be Jay Powell's last FOMC meeting as chairman, expectations we could
 potentially get an announcement here on him stepping aside or what retirement looks like
 potentially as well.
 But for Moral, it's bringing Seema Shaw chief global strategist at principal asset management.
 Seema, it's great to have you on.
 And as we go from the weekend, that was to the week that's coming.
 What are you watching?
 Good morning.
 Well, as you said, it's a really busy week in terms of earnings, central bank meetings.
 We're not really anticipating any kind of central bank moves.
 We're really listening out to if there's any shift towards a more hawkish tilt from the
 Fed, exciting, expecting that from the ECB in the Bank of England as well.
 And then of course, earnings.
 We've already seen that earnings so far have been very, very strong.
 They've put on help to help the market keep going, keep rising very, very strongly.
 But we've also seen that AI seems to be the main topic, really driving investor sentiment.
 So with the Mac 7, so many of them are reporting that earnings, the key thing is that narrative
 going to be continuing, which can enable this equity market running to be sustained even
 in the face of the GIP, political conflict.
 Yeah.
 I mean, to that point, the fact that tech has led so much to this rally, not just here in
 the US, but globally, when you look at other major markets that are flaring with record
 highs now too, says what?
 Well, so I think the thing is interesting is, you know, we all know that the all-price
 story is very concerning that these macro risks attach to it.
 The thing that investors are looking at is what is a narrative, which is going to be driving
 through, despite whatever happening on the geopolitical front.
 So what is the second story?
 And that continues to be AI.
 We had better valuations after the sell-off in February.
 And then I think is enabled investors to maintain that positive sentiment.
 And that continues to drive market forward.
 You know, the demand for AI is simply, it's not falling back.
 And if we continue to see earnings really delivering meeting expectations, and I think
 that this could be, you know, a key factor, which is sustaining that market running going
 forward.
 Hmm.
 Fixed income.
 What are your thoughts right now?
 As we do have this conversation, as we do, I, you know, have just returned to the last
 couple days from Asia where the idea of acute energy shortages is very real and happening
 in real time, even as US markets shrug it off.
 Yeah.
 And I think, I think that's a really interesting topic, because you are seeing divergence under
 the surface between the US and then Europe and Asia, where as you said, there are supply
 shortages, which are already going to start to bite quite soon.
 So we're expecting that, that US outperformers to be sustained as long as this geopolitical
 conflict is going forward.
 And to your question, fixed income, because the macro stories to the US and the foundations
 continue to be very strong, we like credit there.
 We've preferred high yield over investment grade through this period because of that expectation
 that defaults are not going to be spiking.
 If you look across to Asia and to Asia specifically, then imagine market debt continues to be a key
 story.
 It's just about picking the right market because, of course, this is not a homogenous
 picture across Asia and the rest of the emerging markets.
 I just wonder, with so many central bank decisions this week, BOJ, ECB, bank of England, here
 in the US, I mean, the expectation, and I just mentioned a few minutes ago, is that
 we're going to see hawkish holds, at least for now, out of all of these major central
 banks, is the fact that that, at least, provides some sort of certainty at a time of a lot
 of uncertainty, something that investors can hang their hats on.
 I think it's been a really important part of the story, underpinning, because historically,
 whenever there's been geopolitical conflicts or price spikes, the thing that really causes
 markets to unravel is when central banks are hiking rates.
 But the moment, knowing that a lot of these central banks are going to be staying on hold,
 has been really key.
 And for our expectations, although we expect the Fed to actually continue to cut rates this
 year just once this year, and then continue into 2027, for a lot of the European central banks,
 we are expecting them to hike.
 And that is also creating that divergent story between the US and Europe.
 Okay.
 Sima Shah, great to have you on and kick off the hour with you.
 Appreciate it.
 Well, we've got a lot more to come here.
 I'm warning call.
 What's summer calling the trial of the year that kicks off today, putting one tech billionaire
 against another with many more on the list poised to potentially testify, plus a green
 light for Kevin Warsh, after the Justice Department has moved to end its probe of current
 Fed Chair Jay Powell, the morning call crew is going to weigh on all of it.
 And later, new developments in the investigation regarding the White House correspondence dinner
 shooting.
 As the suspected gunman heads to court today, we are lagging Washington with what you
 need to know the very busy hour still ahead.
 You don't want to miss it when morning call returns.
 Welcome back to morning call.
 Let's get a market flash on Meta here, which is fractionally lower right now pre market Chinese
 regulators announcing a decision to block the company's $2 billion deal for AI startup
 Manus.
 No further details regarding the reasoning behind the decision.
 We're provided in the regulator statement on the matter, but Meta's deal for Manus has
 been resulted or has resulted in basing tightening its security of China's key AI firms
 and tech exports to the US.
 This has certainly caused a lot of, we'll say, quiet drama in recent weeks.
 Well, jury selection begins in a federal courtroom today in Oakland, California, as Elon
 Musk's lawsuit against open AI and Sam Altman gets underway.
 Musk is accusing Altman and others of accepting his money, Greg Brockman specifically, advice
 and time under the false pretence of creating a nonprofit enterprise, only to turn open AI
 into a profit company years later.
 Musk is seeking as much as $134 billion in damages, a court order restoring open AI status
 as a nonprofit research organization, and open AI co-founders Sam Altman and Greg Brockman
 removed from their roles, joining me now as big technology founder and CMBC contributor
 Alex Cantruz.
 Alex, it's great to have you on.
 We get jury selection today, expectation that you could have an Elon Musk on the stand
 as soon as tomorrow and oh, by the way, Microsoft is in the mix on this too.
 Set it up for us.
 Yeah, this is going to be a big epic trial.
 You have major personalities here and really the future of open AI hanging in the balance.
 And Elon Musk's central claim that he gave them money under the premise that they were
 going to be a charitable trust and now they've converted to for profit, not only that,
 heading towards a $1 trillion or so IPO.
 I think there's some merit there and the fact that he's gotten it to a jury trial indicates
 that there's a chance that he might win and that could be pretty devastating for open
 AI.
 Devastating for open AI, what does all of this mean for the broader AI landscape as well,
 given the fact that we are at this critical juncture with lots of spending happening?
 Well, I mean, open AI is at the center of that landscape.
 And let's say Elon Musk wins and gets some of the remedies that he's asking for.
 You could end up seeing open AI leadership removed.
 Now, I don't think that's exactly where it's going to go.
 It'll probably be some sort of fine to open AI if Elon Musk does win.
 But remember, we're in this moment where this industry is accelerating fast.
 We have the SpaceX IPO coming with the open AI IPO coming on its heels, most likely
 and then potentially and thropic going out as well.
 You could see all three of those at a $1 trillion IPO.
 So this is the last thing open AI needs as it tries to make its case to the public market
 or it gets ready to do that.
 And so there could be some real rough and tumble moments as we get closer to these IPOs.
 Yeah, and we should note, jury selection today, but the jury is going to make a decision
 in an advisory capacity.
 All of this is really going to boil down to the judge and the judges decision and to your
 point with SpaceX.
 It now owns XAI, which is the competitor now to open AI.
 So if we take all of this and we put it into context in a week that has five of the
 MAG-7 reporting as well and obviously tech powering stocks to new high, what is it signal
 about the stakes around tech and how it's leading the markets forward from here?
 Well, we know that the big story around mega cap tech has been artificial intelligence.
 And there is a case to be made that these big tech companies are going to be fine no matter
 what happens here.
 I mean, ultimately, the open AI's and the XAI's and the anthropics of the world are
 building the models that is going to run on the infrastructure, on the compute of an Amazon
 or a Microsoft or a Google.
 So I expect that we're going to see a pretty big week this week from the mega cap tech
 stocks.
 And the AI story will continue to bolster them despite the drama.
 All right.
 Alex Cantro, it's great to see you and to have you on.
 Thank you.
 Thank you.
 Well, straight ahead, we got a hot year for defense and space IPOs, we speak with the
 CEO of one success story, Apex, right after this, but first shares of Adidas are moving
 higher in Germany by more than 1% today that's following the London marathon this weekend.
 Kenya's Sebastian Salway, winning the race while wearing Adidas trainers.
 He also made history, becoming the first man to run a marathon in under two hours in an
 official race.
 Holy smokes.
 I'm going to call you back after this.
 Welcome back to morning call, April's been a busy month for IPO activity in the aerospace
 and defense sectors.
 It's been driven by an increase in defense spending, rising geopolitical tensions, investor
 interest in defense tech and autonomous systems.
 Well, Apex is one of several companies that has gone public in recent weeks, shares of
 the drone maker are up about 20% since that IPO on April 17th joining me right here on
 set now is Apex CEO Roger Wells.
 It's great to have you.
 Welcome.
 Great to be here.
 Thanks.
 All right.
 So you're newly public.
 What is being public enabled at being private, didn't?
 Yeah.
 So great opportunity for us to enter the public markets.
 It gives us the ability to pay down debt and use working capital to invest back into
 the business, innovative new products and technologies and continuing to work scale of
 the company to deliver at rate.
 Also gives us the ability to attract and retain the best talent and be inquisitive when
 it comes to potential acquisitions.
 Yeah.
 Well, it's now a good time.
 I guess what went into the decision to do this now?
 Yeah.
 What went into the decision was really entering in the next phase of growth, right?
 Really being able to supercharge the business, get the working capital necessary to continue
 to grow and expand, and really just entering into a very dynamic market right now.
 We really believe that we're at an inflection point where technology, operational need and
 funding is are coming together.
 Yeah.
 Inflection point is putting it, I would say modestly, I mean, when you look at that and
 we're going to be getting testimony on the hill around all of this this week, around
 this fiscal 2027 budget proposal from the White House, I mean, depending on how you slice
 and dice it, anywhere from $55 to $75 billion as being earmarked within this proposal for
 drones and autonomous warfare and just to put it in perspective at $55 billion investment.
 I mean, you're talking about a 24,000 percent increase from last year on drones and autonomous
 systems.
 It really is remarkable.
 We think that drones are going to be a part of every major conflict in the foreseeable
 future.
 And that creates a really nice backdrop for AVAX, where a company that has a broad portfolio
 of autonomous on-premise systems designed to give our customers the capability to successfully
 execute operations and on the modern battlefield.
 And that includes things like long-range precision strike, one-way attack systems, a hunter-killer
 based drones that are enabled by launch defects and loitering munitions.
 So really, all of the technologies that AVAX is developing, the platforms we're developing
 are well aligned with the budgetary request.
 And you already have products and systems that are on the battlefield in Ukraine.
 What does the opportunity look like in the U.S. and in other parts of the world as well now?
 Yeah, I think we're seeing a big shift not only for deterrence, but also for readiness.
 We're seeing just a global understanding that drones and autonomous systems will be part
 of force structures.
 They will be employed in a variety of different operational contexts and having this technology,
 having the ability to create significant operational effects while being economically
 advantageous is an important part of the way wars will be fought in the future.
 There's a lot of competition out there, though, especially when we talk about drones and
 autonomous warfare, particularly in the startup landscape as well, so how do you navigate
 that?
 Yeah, we've really created a highly differentiated technology stack, deployed across
 all of our systems that give us the opportunity and the ability to operate in heavily contested
 environments where GPS is being denied, communications are being jammed, electronic warfare is being
 deployed pervasively by technically sophisticated adversaries while still maintaining a high
 degree of operational success and target engagement.
 So having that ability to operate in very challenging environments against very hard threats
 is where we've really distinguished ourselves.
 All right.
 And finally, I just have to ask about how the business models are changing when it comes
 to acquisition and drones being on the front lines of that.
 A very dynamic environment right now.
 We're certainly seeing a significant amount of demand globally for this technology, and
 we believe that we're well positioned with the systems that we have to meet that demand
 in the need.
 All right.
 Roger Wells of AVAX.
 It's great to have you here on set.
 Thank you for joining me.
 Thanks, Morgan.
 All right.
 We'll still on deck.
 We've got a cross-border farmer deal that has two stocks surging, plus spirit airlines,
 not the only ones looking for a government bailout without your latest headlines coming
 up.
 First, though, we are tracking the not-so-secret rally-and-chip stocks, the Philadelphia
 assembly conductor index, the SOX.
 It's up more than 40% in four weeks, leading the charge higher this month, Crito, Astera,
 Intel, Rambus, and AMD.
 We've got more in call back after this.
 Welcome back, I'm Morgan Brennan, and this is Morning Call.
 Let's get a check on U.S. stock futures with the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ coming off of
 record highs, record closes, on Friday, because you can see a mixed picture this morning
 albeit fractional moves, with the S&P and Dow both poised to open lower, the NASDAQ poised
 to open higher.
 It also just note the S&P 500 natched its largest four-week point gain on a record.
 That's what we came off of last week, and a similar situation for the NASDAQ as well.
 If we get a check on treasuries though, we see treasuries under a bit of pressure, we
 yield higher across the board.
 U.S. tenured treasuries yielding 4.318% right now.
 We've got economic data on tap this week, as well as an FOMC meeting.
 So keep an eye, especially keep an eye on the bond market this week.
 Another situation for the dollar, which is weaker against other major currencies.
 You can see the dollar index right now, 98.30.
 And finally, let's get a check on energy, because crude is coming off of its best week since
 early March.
 And as you can see right now, higher again this morning with WTI crude, up 2% 96.55 per
 barrel, and Brent also up about 2.5% 108 dollars per barrel.
 Let's get a flash on Mark Qualcomm meantime.
 The stock is jumping on a report this morning that it will work with OpenAI on processors
 for a smartphone.
 The report adds OpenAI is shooting for a 2028 for mass production of the device.
 Qualcomm's pre-market gains are coming on top of an 11% jump on Friday, and as you
 can see, spiking another 10% right now, pre-market.
 If we return to the other big story from over the weekend, new details emerging, regarding
 the suspect who attempted to breach security at the White House Correspondent's dinner,
 which was attended by President Trump and a number of other administration officials.
 Aiman Javers and Emily Wilkins join us with a very latest regarding the investigation
 and response by lawmakers to the incident.
 Aiman, let's start with you.
 Yeah, good morning to you, Morgan.
 President Trump went on 60 minutes on CBS News last night to give his take on his emotions
 in those moments when the Secret Service evacuated him from the White House Correspondent's
 dinner.
 Here's what he said.
 I was a word.
 I understand life.
 We live in a crazy world.
 Well, my thought was, you know, I've been through this before a couple of times.
 And we're learning more about the suspected attacker from Saturday night.
 His name is Cole Allen.
 What we know about him is that he's from Torrance, California.
 He graduated from the California Institute of Technology with a degree in mechanical engineering
 and he was a teacher at C2 education.
 He apparently transmitted a manifesto of sorts that you heard the President refer to last
 night in which he laid out his objectives for Saturday night's attack and those included
 targeting administration officials other than FBI Director Cash Patel.
 No real specificity on why Cash Patel was not to be targeted, but administration officials
 from the President on down were to be targeted according to that manifesto, according
 to officials.
 We do expect him to be arraigned later today Morgan and we might learn more about what
 motivated this man for this very scary attack on Saturday night back over to you.
 Yeah.
 And Amy, you were in the room as was I, as was Emily.
 So stay with us.
 We're going to turn to Emily Wilkins, the response by congressional leaders to the incident
 as well now.
 Hey, Morgan.
 Yeah, you know, a number of lawmakers were also in the room with us last night.
 And now this morning and yesterday, they began ramping up calls to fund the Department
 of Homeland Security.
 That of course includes the Secret Service after that attempt to shooting at the dinner.
 And of course, this comes as the Department of Homeland Security has gone unfunded for
 more than 70 days.
 And look, employees have been paid from other funding sources, so it's not like the folks
 in the room weren't getting paid, but DHS Secretary Mark Wayne Mullin said that that
 additional pot of funding is going to soon run out.
 Senator Lindsey Graham tweeted yesterday that Congress must fully fund DHS government,
 so we can finally get Secret Service personnel paid and fully funded while they carry out
 their important mission for our country, as well as all other DHS functions.
 He added that it is long past time to fully fund the DHS as the threats against our
 country are growing exponentially.
 Now the Senate did pass a bill last month that would fund the majority of the DHS, including
 the Secret Service, but that has now stalled in the House as Republicans have yet to take
 up that bill because it doesn't contain funding for ICE.
 Instead, the House is focused on passing a narrower bill.
 It would fund only ICE and customs and border patrol.
 And then the plan is that when that more targeted bill moves forward, the House would
 then go ahead and vote on that wider funding bill for all of the Department of Homeland
 Security.
 Now the House is expected to start this week on the instructions that blueprint for the
 more targeted ICE bill, but it's just not clear if it will pass as some lawmakers do
 want to include other issues.
 Senator Chuck Grassley, he chairs the committee overseeing the Secret Service.
 He has asked for a bipartisan briefing on the incident this week, as well as Congressman
 James Comer, and he chairs the House Oversight Committee, which also has jurisdiction there.
 So a lot more to come on Capitol Hill with this issue.
 Morgan?
 Yeah.
 And of course, it was already poised to be a very busy week for Capitol Hill.
 Amen.
 I just want to go back to, since we were all in the room, we were at the same table on Saturday
 night.
 I want to go back to the other piece of this that's now getting deconstructed, and that
 is the security piece of this, and how the shooter could have even made his way that close
 to the ballroom.
 And I realize all of that is being assessed and analyzed and repaired for the future.
 But the one thing I would say is it all transpired very, very quickly, and what was incredible
 to see, I would say, was how quickly Secret Service reacted, and secured the room.
 Yeah, I would agree with that more, just as we were in the room, it was one of these
 moments where they just kind of served the salad and you're at this big Gallaudinor.
 For our table, we could hear the shots, and it was clearly four or five very loud bangs.
 After the first one, you thought maybe there was a table had gone over, a server had dropped
 a tray or something like that.
 Once you heard four or five really quickly, you knew something very dangerous was going
 on.
 And within seconds, I saw agents rushing toward the stage, you saw people diving under
 the tables.
 I mean, there was an instant reaction in the room, and part of the tragedy of America
 these days is that we kind of all know what this is when it happens in real time.
 What we didn't know was where it was coming from, how many attackers there might be, was
 this an Iranian cell, was this a lone gunman.
 Any of that information was really hard to come by for a very long time in the room.
 And you think about the security protocols.
 What happened here was the attacker got to the first ring of security and was stopped.
 Right?
 That's what that first ring is designed to do, and that's what it did on Saturday night.
 Now, there's a lot of Monday morning quarterbacking of whether that first ring of security was
 in the right place or not, should it have been farther out from the hotel ballroom, should
 have been outside the hotel, should they have locked down the entire building.
 That's not what we've done in the past in Washington for this event.
 Secret Service has been at this particular ballroom year in and year out for decades.
 They know every hallway and every door in that building.
 They made the decision to put it there, and it seems to have worked.
 But a lot of people want to know exactly what that decision-making was all about on Saturday
 night.
 Yeah.
 And of course, all of that in focus on Capitol Hill, Emily, nonetheless, I mean, it is
 pretty incredible to see how these men and women of Secret Service have continued to serve
 and serve so strongly, despite what we're talking about with budget gridlock on Washington.
 I think the other thing that's going to be in focus this week, and I know I realize it's
 not necessarily related, but it does get back to this heart of security, whether you're
 talking about domestically or internationally, is the FISA policy rolling off and expiring
 as well.
 And we're going to, I mean, that's another key debate right now that's playing out on
 Capitol Hill.
 Obviously, that law is really critical for intelligence services and intelligence gathering.
 Of course, you've seen some pushback from Republicans who want more standards on it.
 It's going to be very interesting as all of Congress returns to DC today and really begins
 to get into the same room and start discussing whether there is going to be more pressure
 now to move forward on FISA.
 And for the members who have been held, holdouts to drop their objections might also be the
 same.
 I'm very curious when it comes again to funding the Department of Homeland Security,
 are we going to see the House pivot?
 Are we going to see a number of members say, look, we know that we really wanted to fund
 ICE first, but we are going to have to just go forward right now and fund the entire DHS.
 Again, I mean, there were you had Speaker Mike Johnson, who was in the room, you had Steve
 Scalia, Tom Emmer, your top Republicans, a number of Republicans and Democrats, all that
 were in the room.
 And again, you know, Secret Service was able to act quickly, they were able to get them
 out.
 Their teams confirmed to me fairly quickly that they were safe, but certainly just a
 very jarring moment for those of us in the room, apart because there was such a long
 time where we did not know where the shooter was, as Amin was pointing out, if there was
 a single gunman, if there were multiple shooters, and of course, you know, Morgan, we were all
 there together, and it was, you know, just a very harrowing experience.
 Yeah, several hours of lockdown to your point, Amin Javers, Emily Wilkins, thank you
 both for your reporting and your insights this morning.
 Appreciate it.
 You bet.
 You've got a lot more to come here on morning call, including the IPO market.
 Proving to be alive and well, you've got a major milestone public offerings are hitting
 for the first time in four years, you just heard from Apex, but it's one piece of this
 bigger puzzle.
 Plus, more budget airlines reportedly turning to the White House for help amid potential
 rescue plans for Spirit morning call is back after this.
 We've got a market flash for you on the IPO market, Renaissance capital says April is
 on track to be one of the biggest months for proceeds in more than four years.
 So far, nine big offerings have raised a combined $6.4 billion.
 The list includes nuclear technology developer X Energy, which went public late last week and
 had a great start to its public debut, critical materials supplier element as well.
 The Renaissance IPO ETF is at more than 18% this month, and we still have more on tap.
 It's relatively quiet today, but more in the pipeline, including Suja and a number of others.
 Let's get a check on this morning's latest headlines, though.
 Republican Senator Tom Tillis says he's ready to move forward with confirming Kevin Warsh
 as the next Federal Reserve chairman after the Justice Department late last week dropped
 its criminal probe of current Fed Chair Jay Powell.
 Tillis speaking with NBC's Meet the Press yesterday.
 We were very clear that we had the sureances from the DOJ that I needed to feel like they
 were not using the DOJ as a weapon to threaten the independence of the Fed.
 This will allow Mr. Warsh to move on with his confirmation on time.
 Well, President Trump says he's canceling plans to send U.S. special envoy at Steve
 Whitkopf and Jared Kushner to Pakistan after Iran's chief negotiator left Islamabad after
 speaking only to Pakistan officials.
 Trump posted on social media if they want to talk, all they have to do is call.
 In deal news, India's largest drug maker by market value, Sun Farm Sutakos says it's buying
 U.S.-based drug maker Organan and company in an all-cash deal worth more than $11 billion.
 This is the largest overseas deal ever for an Indian, Farma company, and you can see
 both of those companies jumping right now.
 Pre-market Sun is up about 7%, Organan, though, is up about 15% right now.
 A group of U.S. budget airlines, including Frontier and Devello, are reportedly looking
 for $2.5 billion in government assistance.
 This is an exchange for warrants that could be converted into equity stakes.
 The Wall Street Journal says CEOs met with Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy on Tuesday
 last week, with aid packages expected in the coming days.
 This comes as the White House is weighing a possible stake in low-cost, carrier, spirit
 airlines.
 And Chinese regulators announcing a decision to block Metas' $2 billion deal for AI startup
 Manus.
 No additional details from Beijing, at least on paper officially, but there had been
 a lot of expectation that you could see some moves such as this from China.
 So we'll continue to monitor that.
 Of course, Meta has earnings on tap this week straight ahead.
 The morning call crew was tan up an absolutely massive trading week ahead.
 And one member, what one member calls a quote splintered tech trade heading into those
 meg seven results.
 You don't want to miss it.
 We're back on the other side of this break.
 Welcome back to morning call time for a call sheet where we live at the top of striving
 the trading day ahead.
 We've got a lot of them.
 Crew members today, Peter Book of Art Chief Investment Officer, at 1.bfg wealth partners
 also CBC contributor Lee Baker, owner and president of Claris Financial Advisors and a member
 of the CBC Financial Adviser Council, and Courtney Galman, Washington Research Analyst
 as Strategist.
 Great to have you all here.
 Lots to get through.
 Lee, I'm going to kick this one off with you.
 Big tech earnings in what is peak week for earning season.
 Are you watching here?
 Well, what I'm watching for obviously Wednesday and then Apple on Thursday is going to be key.
 I think for this sector after the run up we've had in the last, oh, let's call it three
 weeks, we've got about a 20% rebound in the NASDAQ.
 I think what I'm going to look for is how the market looks at a couple of new things.
 Apple, we've got a new CEO coming in.
 I think there's a very thin margin of error.
 And so when we see these earnings, I'm cautious, a little concerned about the margin
 of error.
 So I think anything that doesn't just nail it could see a bit of retrenching from the
 last three weeks.
 Yeah, earnings have been strong so far this season, Peter.
 And you could argue that the bar is now much higher than before.
 The other tech name to watch perhaps here this week is Sandisk, which brings us to what
 we're seeing with equipment and semis here.
 The socks, the Philadelphia semiconductor index, it's up something like 44% in four weeks.
 And we haven't necessarily had any major news to drive it.
 I mean, yes, maybe you perhaps you could point to Intel earnings last week.
 But in general, it's just powering higher.
 How do you see it?
 So I am now bucketing the tech trade into three different groups, the hyperscalers that
 are spending all that money that this year or in the aggregate, CapEx is expected
 to be about $650 billion from about 400 last year.
 The receivers of that spend like Sandisk and other sending conductor companies in addition
 to infrastructure building out these data centers.
 And then the third is software, which is obviously under threat from AI.
 So what I am also looking for is what is the level of CapEx from the hyperscalers this
 week?
 Is it going to be sustained?
 Is it going to be increased?
 I don't expect it to be cut.
 And also interestingly, with Meta and Google, I want to hear what they have to say about
 their ad business.
 Because at the end of the day, that's what they are.
 And that'll be a tell on the global economy.
 Yeah, we also get some economic data this week.
 And then of course, that FOMC decision, Courtney on Wednesday, I'd argue perhaps so that
 the biggest news around the Fed is not going to be the fact that they're holding rates
 steady again.
 It's going to be this confirmation process for Kevin Warch, which is now in a position
 to move forward.
 So we're going to move forward with whether we get any kind of announcement from Powell
 in terms of stepping aside.
 Yeah, that's the big question.
 So it does look like Warch is going to be cleared to be on on May 15th.
 It looks like they're targeting a committee or a full vote in the House or in the Senate
 on May 11th.
 But the big question, as you noted, is whether or not Powell stays on because that has
 major implications for the regional Fed presence because there are thoughts of the administration
 wants to change up some of those names as well as reducing or financial deregulation,
 which is key to Warch's goal of reducing the Fed's balance sheet.
 Peter, it's not just the Fed either, right?
 It's Bank of Japan, it's Bank of England, it's ECB as well.
 How to take all of these together and factor them, especially since hawkish hold seems
 to be the theme of the week.
 I think until the war ends and we get to see how commodity prices particularly oil
 settle out, all these central bankers are now just spectators.
 They can only just sit back and wait to see how things go.
 They don't want to react to the upside with rates in response to oil because the war ends
 or oil prices just drop back down again.
 I don't think they can cut because then that potentially weakens their currency, exaggerates
 the inflation pressures.
 So they're just sitting back watching just like the rest of us.
 Lee, you want to get your thoughts on this, especially because, and maybe this is
 a crazy idea.
 I raised it earlier in the show, but at least if you know the central banks are holding
 steady and not doing anything right now, it adds a level of certainty in a market that
 has a lot of uncertainty.
 Yeah, so the idea that you can sit here and I think safely imagine that we're going
 to have interest rates the same, my opinion through the remainder of 2026 does give you
 a level of uncertainty.
 The problem is is that everything else around that interest rate, I think, overweights,
 overwhelms that level of certainty because there's just so much uncertainty everywhere
 else.
 Courtney, in the meantime, you have Iran talks slowly progressing, perhaps, in the background,
 and reports that U.S. energy exports hit a new record at the end of last week.
 On the one hand, on the other, you're going to have all of this, all these hearings on
 the Hill focus on defense spending for the new budget proposal.
 Yeah, it's going to be a busy week as members try to get additional defense spending because
 that is key to continuing the conflict, replenishing U.S. stockpiles, as well as kind of thinking
 about other conflicts in the near term like Taiwan.
 Our base case, though, for the defense budget, and it's something that we've seen from investors
 who are starting to get a little bit concerned that this won't move forward because of all
 these other issues.
 So at the House, and at our dealing with non-reconciliation, our base case is that defense supplements
 will actually be a bipartisan endeavor, potentially going into the lame duck, and we're anticipating
 that that number is more going to be 80 to 100 billion.
 So far, short of what the administration is requesting about additional $500 billion
 per defense spending, but still notable for these companies.
 Okay.
 Courtney, Lee, Peter, it's great to have you all on as part of our morning call crew this
 morning.
 Thank you.
 To all of you, and we'll send it over to SquatBox now.