Morning Call 4/24/26

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 Right in and this is your morning call.
 Good Friday morning, U.S. stock futures right now are a little bit mixed.
 The major averages pulled back from record levels just yesterday.
 The Nasdaq coming off its worst day since late March, and right now the Dow's implied
 lower by just about 167 points, the S&P 500 is pretty much flat, and the tech heavier
 Nasdaq has applied higher by just about 170 points.
 On the treasury front, the movement there has been relatively range bound, but we're
 ticking slightly higher in terms of yields right now.
 The benchmark 10-year note yield 4.33%, the two-year note yield at 3.84%.
 And in energy prices, oil, currently riding a four-session winning streak, and then by
 the way gasoline futures sitting at their highest levels since 2022, for that U.S.
 benchmark WTI trade up 1% to $96.78, World Benchmark Brent Crude futures $106.00 and change
 up about 1.25%.
 But the big stock story of the morning has to be Intel, and what's turning into a wild turnaround
 for a stock once pretty much left for dead?
 The company out with results after the close, though shares up about 24% right now, because
 the second quarter revenue forecast came in way ahead of Wall Street expectations more
 than double the expected $0.9 a share on demand strength for its server processors used
 and what else, AI data centers.
 First quarter results also easily beating Wall Street expectations.
 The stock is set to add some $80 billion in market value at the opening bell if these
 futures move hold into the regular session.
 With this pre-market move, shares are now up more than 100% a doubling for the year.
 Checking the rest of the chip complex in the U.S., that's kind of providing a rising
 tide, if you will.
 Right now Nvidia shares just about flat, but Advanced Micro is up 7.5%, Broadcom's up
 on quarter of 1%, Marvel technology up 3%, and 2.5% gains for the broader-based Vanneck
 vectors, semiconductor ETF.
 Reaction around the world on the back of Intel, including Taiwan's semiconductor hitting
 another record high, Ben Belus is in London with the trade here and what's happening in
 the early action in Europe and what's happening overall with Asia, Ben will send things back
 over to you.
 Yeah, you know, that Intel story has sparked a lot for investors to digest across the global
 chip sector this morning.
 Of course, we saw that big beat from Intel after the bell boosting sentiment, but chipmakers
 in mainland China have outperformed overnight after deep-seek revealed preview versions
 of a new flagship AI model just over a year since, remember, the Chinese startups are one
 recently model rocked the global tech sector.
 TSMC also in focus shares hitting a record high after Taiwanese regulators ease the limit
 on how much active funds can invest in a single stock, allowing investors to really pile
 in to the chip giant.
 We're seeing a more mixed session for Europe's chip names in early trade despite all of that
 news flow.
 That's a smattering of them there.
 This comes after a big week for the sector, shares in ASMI and Finian and B, semiconductor,
 all up close to 10 percent after some positive earnings reports, but ASML underperforming
 after TSMC said on Thursday, it won't be buying the company's newest chipmaking equipment.
 Another big tech story for you dominating markets in Europe this morning, SAP shares moving
 higher this after the company beat expectations in the first quarter driven by sales in
 the company's cloud business rising by a stronger than expected 19 percent.
 The stock has been hit by AI disruption fears along with much of the software sector this
 year, but CEO Christian Klein told us he believes businesses will still store their most critical
 data with SAP and the AI agents will need the context that his company systems will provide
 back to you.
 Ben Boulouse in London with the latest on the market action over in Europe thank you
 very much for that.
 Let's get another check on Intel right now because the numbering is staggering right
 now.
 Look at the pre-market gain we're up about 24 now 23 and a half percent.
 The company's results coming in ahead of a big week of earnings, big tech earnings including
 the likes of Apple and Meta platforms and Microsoft, many of the Mag 7 names.
 For more let's bring in now Dan Ives global head of technology research over at Wedbush.
 This has been an interesting move in terms of how things have evolved as the markets
 of rally.
 It has not been very much about the broadening out trade.
 It's been there, but people have gone right back to the muscle memory for the past decade
 and a half and that is mega cap technology.
 Is this earnings season critical to justify that trade?
 I think it's at the heart because if you think about the anthropic good software trade,
 the worries about the too big to fail when it comes to open AI catbacks, you look at Intel.
 We talk about Rocky Balboa like come back story and what's happening across tech, step
 by step the SAP news and I think next weekend when it comes to Mag 7 and hyperscours, it's
 showing we're in the third inning of this not inning game relative to AI and that's bullish
 and that's why dip buyers will continue to be there for broader tech despite geopolitical
 and some of the jitters.
 You follow the catbacks, that's what investors are focused on.
 So the catbacks has been the massive numbers that we're seeing and have seen for the past
 six to nine months in terms of forecast on spend.
 It was a headwind before because people were worried about whether it was too much, whether
 it could be justified, how much they'd have to borrow or raise capital to do it and then
 all of a sudden now that story has kind of shifted around a little bit right to the point
 where Texas instruments can say that their AI kind of centric unit that helps with data
 centers and everything else analog chips, not the AI chips is up 90% in terms of business
 on a year-over-year basis and you have Intel showing the same kinds of signs of life here.
 This means that the AI trade is for real in terms of the economic impact.
 It's a great point.
 Look, Intel, Cisco, Dell, it's spreading.
 So what's essentially happening is that this tech trade is now second third derivatives
 playing out across hardware, semis.
 What I ultimately believe will be software and infrastructure and that's so important
 because for every dollar spent on a video chip, we estimate there's an 8 to 10 dollar
 multiplier across the rest of the tech.
 So it just shows what this means for the broader tech trade and that's why I think the
 bears, you know, when they sit there in hibernation mode in the caves, they're trying to kind of
 poke holes, but I think there's earnings season and it's going to be a flex to muscles
 for tech.
 We saw that we just got back from Asia and right now demand to supply 12 to 1 for video chips.
 This is the early stage of earnings season.
 We have yet to see many of these big names come out, right?
 We have seen a handful of them and we are expecting more tech names to come out that are
 tied from a second third fourth derivative trade to the AI ecosystem.
 What do you need to see from those companies to make you feel like the primary AI trade
 is very much intact?
 I think get the popcorn out because next week when the hyperscalers report, I think what
 you're going to see, it's not just the reiteration of cat-backs, monetization is starting to happen
 from an AI perspective, when it comes to meta on the advertising side, when it comes
 to Microsoft on Azure, I think Amazon, Google, Microsoft, I think you see beats across
 the board when it comes to cloud, that is so important because that's the fuel in the
 engine.
 When you kind of wink it all together and a Rubik's cube and you sort of put it together,
 this is extremely bullish and next week will be another piece of that puzzle and I think
 it's really going to be, we think tech stocks are up, you know, the 15% this year.
 Dan, really quickly because we have to go, this is a bigger conversation.
 Your favorite tech stock, that is not Mag 7.
 It's a volunteer because to me, that's at the epicenter, I believe it's drilling down
 Mark, next two, three years.
 All right, hold those thoughts here because Dan, you're going to be with us later on this
 morning as well.
 We'll continue that conversation about everything else, all right?
 Thank you very much for that.
 Now to the latest on the war in Iran, the CEO of Chemical Maker Dow says, clearing the
 supply long jam in the straight of Hormuz could take almost a year, far longer than most
 people were expecting.
 Speaking to our own Jim Kramer last night on that money, he says the path back to normal
 will be slow and complex.
 We've got to get empty ships back.
 We've got to clean out the straits and the Arabian Gulf.
 We've got to get empty ships back in.
 We've got to get product offloaded so that we can restart assets.
 And this is not going to be in a month or two.
 This is going to be several quarters before you're going to see things returned to normal.
 All right, Federling's comments coming just hours after President Trump announced an extension
 of a critical ceasefire deal in the region.
 Let's get right out to Dan Murphy in Abu Dhabi with the latest there, Dan.
 Tom Good morning.
 Well, President Trump has extended the Israel Lebanon ceasefire by three weeks after
 Israeli and Lebanese representatives met at the White House overnight.
 Remember, this original truce was set to expire after 10 days.
 So this is a positive development.
 The president also sounded optimistic that this ceasefire can hold, listen.
 We think that the president of Lebanon and the prime minister of Israel over the next
 couple of weeks will be coming here.
 They've agreed to an additional three weeks of, I guess, no firing ceasefire, no more
 firing.
 Let's see.
 We hope that happens.
 President Trump there, it does seem that this is a ceasefire in name only at the moment
 though, with the Wall Street Journal reporting that has been launched rockets towards Israel
 during the ceasefire and Israeli forces were firing back.
 Either way, the Lebanon ceasefire is an important part of the jigsaw puzzle here.
 Iran has pushed to make the ceasefire a precondition of any deal with the United States.
 And on Iran, President Trump was asked for a timeline.
 His answer was, quote, don't rush me.
 Remember, the president has also blamed a lack of clear leadership in Tehran for holding
 up these talks.
 And finally, the maritime standoff in the Strait of Hormuz also showing no signs of
 easing.
 President Trump has ordered the U.S. Navy to shoot and kill, to use his words, any Iranian
 boats placing mines in the waterway, and Iran is also vowed to keep up its own blockade
 into the weekend.
 Don.
 And is there any indication right now of stepped up efforts from any of those other Gulf
 Coast nations, those Gulf Coast entities and states to kind of attack on to some of these
 military aspirations that President Trump has with regard to clearing the Strait of Hormuz
 and keeping Iran going to the negotiating table?
 Don.
 It's such a great question.
 One of the main questions we've been asking through the course of this week is, who
 is going to step in and help the United States with this U.S. naval blockade.
 And it appears at this point, while we have heard signals from the Gulf states that they
 would be interested in joining any American-led effort to reopen Hormuz, particularly the
 UAE.
 So far, we haven't seen those efforts turn into action.
 So right now, this is still very much a hot conflict between the U.S. and Iran in the
 world's most critical waterway with no clear diplomatic off-ramp emerging as of yet.
 Don.
 All right, Dan Murphy in Abu Dhabi with the latest there.
 Thank you very much.
 We've got a lot to come here on morning call, including a look ahead to what summer
 are calling the trial of the year, hitting one AI billionaire against another, plus deep-seek
 shocks Chinese chip stocks, putting U.S. rivals on notice yet again, and later a $410,000
 prediction market win that's put one U.S. Special Forces member on the wrong side of the
 law.
 A very busy hour still ahead when morning call returns after this commercial break.
 All right, welcome back, checking out on U.S. equity futures.
 As you can see, it's a mixed picture so far.
 The Dow's implied lower by 140 points, but the tech heavier NASDAQ is up by 175 points,
 relatively flat for the S&P, Intel is giving the S&P and the NASDAQ a lift after those
 markets pulled back from record highs yesterday.
 Investors are tracking the shaky ceasefire in the Iran war and looking ahead to a whole
 host of central bank decisions next week, including from the Fed, the European Central
 Bank, and the Bank of Japan, with a focus on what policymakers might say about the war's
 impact on their respective inflation pictures and their respective economies.
 Joining me now is John Stolzfist, chief market strategist over at Oppenheimer.
 John, I've delisted a whole slate of catalysts and potential factors at play for the market
 narrative right now.
 What exactly is most important in your mind for how the markets will perform in the coming
 weeks?
 Well, doubly great to be on the show and great to be on CNBC again with you.
 It's been quite a while and good to see you.
 I've got to say that where we stand, we haven't changed our position through all of
 this since the beginning of the year, still emphasis on growth and cyclical stocks, trying
 to avoid the upfistation of the signal by all the noise around what's going on in the
 Middle East.
 Well, at the same time, acknowledging the seriousness of the situation there.
 But we'd have to say our focus is on the improvement we've recently seen in the performance
 of technology.
 Growth is beginning to catch a very nice bid here over the course of the last week or
 so.
 And what we're looking at is the resilience of the US economy and corporate earnings growth
 seem to be making it sure that the US market is sharing the spotlight with all the geopolitical
 risk at this time.
 And that's a good thing for the market.
 John, what exactly would be your favorite maybe one or two sectors in the market right
 now?
 And what would you shy away from?
 Well, I think Dan Ives will smile at this.
 Info Attack remains the favorite with communication services.
 Those are two favorites, but also we like industrials, financials, and consumer discretionary
 at this time, all of which have suffered different points this year so far.
 And we think are in for increased recognition and focused by investors.
 So right now it remains whether we still think you need diversification, you want to avoid
 over concentration, but recognize the fact that technology serves all of the 11 sectors.
 And right now, last I looked, earnings growth is positive across all 10 sectors with
 quite a few double digit, and as I recall, even one triple digit earnings growth so far
 with about a quarter of companies having reported the S&P 500 Q1 earnings season.
 Investments strategies, not just about stocks though.
 So there's a lot more focus these days on commodity markets, given the war in Iran, fixed
 income markets right now with treasury yields on the 10-year side of things back up above
 4.3%.
 We're exactly do you find value there?
 Well, we're finding value within commodities, we like copper.
 We think exposure to copper, copper really is the new gold in terms of practicality as
 the U.S. economy remains growing, it's sustainable growth with likelihood of improvement if we
 get some kind of resolution in the Middle East.
 That said, we've got to recognize here that that's going to take a little bit of time.
 But commodities, great place to be right now, and we think that will be maintained, particularly
 by the elevation of geopolitical risk relating to oil.
 One of the emphasis that we get here is the fact that what this situation has caused is
 a recognition among investors that oil is still the bridge to carry forth the road to alternative
 energy, and the dependence upon fossil fuel is significant.
 It remains the chief lubricant of global growth around the world.
 With the U.S. with plentiful supply being able to attract investors, particularly after
 many people thought it was going to be the foreign markets and we're going to gain all
 the attention this year.
 All right.
 John Stolster's with a call on tech stocks and copper.
 Thank you very much.
 We'll see you soon, sir.
 Thank you.
 All right, turning back to that technology trade.
 New numbers from generation labs, Verbe AI, which tracks the online buying and searching
 habits of young Americans in real time, we asked which AI platforms they're actually looking
 at.
 Top of the list is Anthropics Clawed.
 That was followed by Google's Gemini, then Microsoft Copilot, and then followed by
 OpenAI's ChatGPT, little interesting reordering there with regard to younger people.
 Taking with tech, jury selection begins in a federal courtroom Monday in Oakland, California,
 as Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI and Sam Altman gets underway.
 Musk accusing Altman of breaching a deal and taking control of OpenAI with Musk's money.
 Cmbc.com's Ashley Kapoo will be in the courthouse next week out in the East Bay of California,
 but first she's here to get us ahead of what could be the biggest AI event of the year.
 So Ashley, I mean, simple question.
 What exactly are we going to expect?
 It seems like it could be like a mate for TV drama in a courtroom.
 Yes, absolutely.
 Good morning.
 There are a few things we can expect next week.
 First, as you mentioned, we're going to see jury selection kickoff in federal court in
 California.
 We're expecting nine jurors to be seated, and there's not going to be any alternates in
 this case.
 Second, we're going to see both sides present opening arguments.
 So Musk's lawyers are going to try to make the case that OpenAI and its executives went
 back on their commitments to stick to a nonprofit structure and follow its charitable
 mission.
 OpenAI's lawyers are going to try to refute those claims.
 And then third, we're going to start to see some witnesses get called to the stands
 to deliver their testimony here.
 And in this case, we're going to hear from some high-powered tech executives, including
 OpenAI, CEO Sam Altman, Elon Musk, and Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella.
 All right.
 When you put that many A personalities in a room like that, things can get dicey.
 They could get contentious.
 So just how contentious and dramatic do we expect this to be?
 Yes, absolutely.
 So I don't think my answer is going to surprise many viewers, but things could definitely
 get heated next week.
 We've already seen OpenAI, CEO Sam Altman, and Elon Musk share jabs on social media.
 So I wouldn't be surprised if we see some impassioned testimony from those two executives
 in particular, but at the very least, it's not going to be boring.
 Are there key, I guess, outcomes or scenarios that you would be looking to see play out?
 In other words, as you go in as a reporter, what exactly do you think could be the predictable
 outcomes for what could come from this trial?
 It's hard to speculate here.
 Elon Musk has asked for a number of different things since he filed the lawsuit in 2024.
 Most recently, he's asked for the removal of OpenAI, CEO Sam Altman, and its president Greg
 Brockman from their roles at the company.
 He's also asked the judge to undo the restructuring that took place last year.
 Musk has previously asked for up to $134 billion of damages here, but he's changed his positioning
 on that in recent months, and is now asking for any monetary damages to be funneled back
 into the nonprofit.
 So this could go a number of different directions, but that decision will ultimately rest with
 the judge.
 Certainly fire works, we're expecting it, and then as Dan and I was appointed, get the popcorn
 out.
 All right, safe travels out to California and good luck covering the event, Ashley Kapoo.
 Thank you very much.
 Thanks, Tom.
 We break here and check on shares of Texas Instruments, which are maybe understandably pulling
 back slightly and extended trading today.
 That stock jumped nearly 20% yesterday, the best day since the .com era in 2000 after
 reporting better than expected first quarter results, and giving up the guidance as demand
 sores for its analog chips that are used in AI data centers.
 But first, a shot across the bow for Detroit's big three, and Tesla.
 Our Unis Unis live at the Beijing Auto Show with what's to come, and Unis, let me guess,
 it's all about EVs.
 It is about EVs, in fact, it's about large luxury SUV EVs, not only made by Cadillac,
 but a whole lot of Chinese companies, more on Morning Call in just a few minutes.
 Welcome back to Morning Call, DeepSeek, the Chinese AI startup that stunned the world with
 its low-cost model last year, unveiling its latest version today.
 It's being adapted specifically for Chinese chipmaker Huawei.
 DeepSeek says the pro-version outperforms other open-source models in world knowledge benchmarks,
 trailing only Google's Gemini Pro 3.1, which is a close-source model.
 Shares of Chinese chipmakers, SMIC, Huawei, Semi, jumping in Hong Kong on this particular
 bit of news, so you can see those trades there because of DeepSeek and AI.
 Sticking with the China trade, the world's largest auto show is underway in Beijing, and
 China's automakers have a bold message for the world's luxury brands.
 We're coming for you and your customers.
 Our Unisune joins us now from the floor of the Beijing Auto Show with the latest there.
 I can only imagine that the show is going to be filled with people showing just how fancy
 these new EV cars can be.
 Yeah, absolutely.
 I mean, for the story about the Chinese companies, I'll get to that in just a moment.
 The first GM has unveiled its Chinese version of the Cadillac Vesteak SUV EV.
 It's just one of many companies that are non-Chinese, that are looking to regain ground
 in the Chinese market by leaning on an in-China for China strategy, rolling out EVs
 that have a whole lot of Chinese technology to stage a turnaround.
 This is what some of the executives told me.
 We have plans to really build this brand and return where we used to be in terms of volume
 and share with new entries coming this year, multi-propulsion entries coming this year
 and next year.
 We feel like we're definitely on the comeback here in China.
 We've come to the conclusion that localization is our strategic position.
 This is the largest market in the world.
 It's been shrinking the last few months, but because we have a huge opportunity for us and
 like all the competitors, we see as a big opportunity to hedge versus other situations
 in the world.
 Hyundai launched its Ionic V. This is also part of its plan to roll out 20 new models in
 China in the next five years, the W, so that they're going to be launching 20 new models
 this year alone.
 So the other big theme here, though, is the emergence of flood people are saying, a parade
 of luxury SUVs in the EV space.
 The Chinese companies have been dominating with more than 50 of these models and these
 are big three-seater cars and the reason it's being seen as so important as that this
 is the domain usually of the Detroit big three.
 So a lot of the discussion here is that this is just a shot across the bow that the Chinese
 companies, even though they're not allowed to be in the US market yet, are looking to enter
 the market, or at least compete with a lot of these big American companies in this space
 that one analyst told me is the cash cow for Detroit.
 All right, huge auto market and huge luxury demand for sure, unis-hune from the Beijing
 Auto Show.
 Thank you very much for that.
 Still on deck for the show, first it was rare earth, then it was chip makers.
 Now President Trump may have his eyes set on a new acquisition 30,000 feet in the
 air.
 Plus, more job cuts coming in big tech, a look at whether this week is just the start of
 a new wave of layoffs coming, morning call continues after this.
 As America celebrates its 250th anniversary, CNBC spotlights the business leaders who forged
 American industry and an extraordinary legacy of philanthropy.
 I'm Heather Gurkin, president of the Ford Foundation.
 We were created by the Ford family in 1936.
 They used the profits that they made from the company to create a foundation to make
 a better world.
 The Ford Foundation, during the MacArthur era, stood up protection for free speech and
 descent.
 It is one of the major funders of the civil rights era.
 It helped build the backbone of the public interest litigation world.
 It has done one thing after another to push forward our democracy, including building
 public radio, Mr. Rogers, Sesame Street.
 We are one of the reasons that they exist.
 In 2008, we started a new program where we gave a thousand dollars to a thousand children
 in Oklahoma that has now become a national model for thinking about savings.
 We've been building out broadband for rural communities.
 We've been working on the opioid crisis.
 We've been supporting veterans.
 We've been doing all kinds of work to protect the most vulnerable people.
 The Ford Foundation hasn't just responded to history.
 It has really helped shape it.
 We became one of the biggest foundations in the world.
 We give hundreds of millions of dollars away every single year.
 And our causes have ranged very, very widely.
 We're both a global foundation and a domestic foundation.
 Some of the work that we've been doing recently has been building out protections for the
 rule of law and democracy.
 If I had to sum up 250 years of American enterprise and a single word, it would be openness.
 Open to ideas, openness to immigrants.
 Immigrants have been the driver of our economy.
 They've brought with them ideas and made an enormous difference here.
 We cannot survive without bringing other people to our shores.
 There's so much common ground and belief in our democracy that is a place to build.
 I'm Dominic Chiuin from Morgan Pratt and welcome back to Morning Call.
 Let's get a check now on U.S. equity futures, which remain mixed.
 The more traditional, big blue kind of oriented Dow Jones industrial index is off about 170 points.
 The S&P's flat, but the tech heavier NASDAQ is up by about 167 points implied.
 One tells a big part of that story, surging on better than expected Q1 results and current
 quarter guidance.
 Those shares right now in the pre-market trade up nearly 27%.
 That's providing a rising tide for other chip names, as you can see here.
 In video, it's just about flat on the session, but the advanced micro is up 7.5%, broad
 con, relatively flat, marvell technology, 3.5% gains there, 3% gains for Taiwan's semiconductor.
 Following some of the morning's latest headlines, President Trump says he's considering
 having the U.S. take a stake in spirit airlines as the troubled carrier warns it could run
 at a cash within days.
 The president's speaking from the Oval Office just yesterday.
 We're thinking about doing it, helping them out and belling them out or buying it.
 We just buy it.
 We're beginning it virtually debt-free.
 They have some good aircraft, good assets, and when the price of the oil goes down, we'll
 sell it for a profit.
 I'd love to be able to save those jobs.
 I'd love to be able to save an airline.
 All right, from the friendly skies to space, more warnings from SpaceX ahead of its 2026
 IPO, new disclosures viewed by Reuters suggest multiple investigations into XAI's creation
 and distribution of sexually explicit materials that may force the parent's space X out
 of some key lucrative markets.
 Meanwhile Bill Akman's Persian Square plans to offer up to $33 million shares at an expected
 price of $50 when it goes public.
 The company is applied to listed shares on the New York Stock Exchange.
 The National Transportation Safety Board's preliminary report into last month's fatal
 air-canada collision at LaGuardia Airport is out.
 According to that report, a firefighter whose truck collided with the air-canada jet heard
 an air traffic controller warning, but did not know who the warning was for.
 The report adding that a crash prevention system did not generate an audio or visual alert
 in the control tower.
 And Nike says it's laying off about 1,400 people in an effort to streamline workflows.
 The move accounts for a little less than 2 percent of the company's global workforce.
 Well, not just Nike here, after mass layoffs last year, more big layoff news in big tech
 in just the last 24 hours, including the likes of meta-platforms, planning to layoff 10 percent
 of its workforce or roughly 8,000 employees as it continues ramping up investments in
 artificial intelligence.
 Medic confirms the cuts will begin May 20th and that it's scrapping plans to hire people
 for 6,000 open roles.
 The news coming just hours after Microsoft for the first time in its history plans to
 offer voluntary buyouts for about 7 percent of its workforce as it boosts capital spending
 on data centers.
 Joining me now on this and more is Corey Staley, senior economist over at Indeed, Corey,
 is this just the beginning, I guess is my question.
 Hey, Dominic, thanks for having me.
 I think right now, we do see that these types of cuts are potentially setting this
 stage for a tougher labor market, right?
 So I wouldn't be surprised if we see some of these cuts continue as we go forward in
 the coming months, because we're seeing right now that the labor market just in general
 is really, really tough right now and we're seeing employers make these types of moves.
 Is it just in technology right now?
 We've highlighted the big tech names there, but the fear, Corey, is that it could be a
 more broader based kind of beginning to bigger job cuts in other industries?
 Are you seeing signs of that right now?
 There are some signs, right?
 So if we look back over the last three or four years, it seems like a lot of the cuts
 have been really focused in tech, but if you look at the last 12 months, we've seen some
 of these cuts start to branch out into some other areas, right?
 We've seen cuts in transportation companies, media companies, and so I do think that there
 is a little bit of pressure that we see going outside of tech.
 How far that goes and how big it grows though is kind of the real question and they're
 going to be the big thing to watch.
 And because indeed we all know, or most of us know, is a job search platform matching
 employers with employees.
 Is there anything in your data or platforms that can tell us a little bit about where
 the jobs are and just who is applying and what types of roles that they're trying to seek?
 Yeah, so there's a lot of data, right?
 Like we sit on this massive amount of data, right?
 Like I love being in this data perch where we can see things and oftentimes we can see
 things, you know, well before the government data.
 And so if we look at the data that sits now, one of the big things we track is job postings
 and we try to understand, okay, where are the opportunities and what that's telling
 us right now is there's actually a little bit of some research is potentially happening
 in some of these tech companies, which is interesting, right?
 So we're seeing some cuts, but we're also seeing some hiring as well, starting to pick
 up in software development and some of these different technology jobs.
 And so we see a little bit of that.
 And of course we continue to see healthcare also driving a lot of the opportunities.
 You know, we've seen healthcare adding jobs on the job, you know, when the actual employment
 reports come out, but we're continuing to see employers hiring for healthcare jobs on
 our platform as well.
 And interestingly enough, we're also again able to see on the other side of that question,
 you know, we're able to see the people who are looking and we're seeing more and more
 recent graduates, especially this time of year coming to our platform, looking for jobs.
 All right, Corey Staley at Indeed, senior economist there.
 Thank you very much.
 We'll see you soon, sir.
 Thank you.
 All right.
 A lot more to come here.
 A morning call, including the next wave of prediction market booms and the players
 tapping into a popular investing tool.
 Morning call is back after this.
 Welcome back.
 The Justice Department says it's charging a U.S. Army special forces master sergeant with
 allegedly using classified information to make profitable bets on polymarket related
 to the U.S. military mission that captured former Venezuelan leader, Nicolas Maduro.
 One says that he's reaped nearly a $410,000 profit from according to the indictment.
 Polymarket says insider trading has no place on the platform.
 Their words.
 Now, the charges come after Calgary revealed earlier this week.
 It had suspended and find three congressional candidates for political insider trading
 activity on their own campaigns.
 Disclosure here.
 CNBC has a commercial partnership and minority investment with Kalshi.
 The developments doing little to stop industry enthusiasm and expansion, though, with some
 looking to offer prediction-based exchange-traded funds.
 Contessa Brewer is here with that.
 Good morning, Contessa.
 Hey, there, Dom.
 At least three companies now have filed applications with the SEC to offer event contracts as ETFs.
 Bitwise, Round Hill and Granite shares are planning to offer, for instance, Democratic
 President ETF and Republican President ETF.
 Essentially, an investment in who wins the White House on November 7th, 2028.
 Similar ETFs are proposed for the outcome of which party takes control of the House
 and the Senate in the midterms.
 The ETFs would roughly track the changes in probability on the prediction markets.
 And like the prediction markets, if you bet on a loser, you lose your entire bet.
 The stark warnings and the finalings are worded a little bit more formally.
 They say the fund will lose substantially all its value.
 So why would a trader want an ETF over just going and making that bet on Kalshi or Polymarket
 or one of the many other prediction platforms?
 Will Ryan, the founder and CEO of Granite share ETFs, compared it to the friction in investing
 in Bitcoin through Binance or Coinbase versus being able to invest in Bitcoin in an ETF within
 a brokerage account?
 It's just easier.
 And it confers a kind of credibility on the asset.
 And for now, those ETF offerings are focused on national elections.
 They don't include sports.
 Sports is a category is currently embroiled in litigation by multiple states and attorneys
 general.
 Likely headed to the Supreme Court on the question, is this gambling?
 Does it violate states' rights?
 But look, this is nascent.
 That could change if investor appetite for more markets is there.
 We just continue to watch this.
 By the way, Dom, you know this, it's quiet period for these ETF applications.
 So the companies themselves are not giving me a lot of details about what might be next.
 And we'll contest it.
 It was only a matter of time.
 There is an ETF for just about everything these days.
 Thank you very much for that.
 We appreciate it.
 Straight ahead on the show, the morning call crew team up the day ahead.
 We're back in just a moment.
 Welcome back.
 It's time for your Kalshi where we look at the topics driving the trading day ahead.
 The crew members today are Dan Ives, wed bush global head of technology research, still
 also with us.
 Also with us now is Michelle Caruso Cabrera, CEO of MCC Global Enterprises.
 She's also, of course, a CNBC contributor.
 And then Jessica Inskips, stockbrokers.com, director of investor research.
 Thank you very much for the panel here.
 Our first topic right now just has to be markets at large.
 We are still near record highs right now.
 Jessica, I'm going to go to you for this one first.
 Traders and investors have been relatively bullish even with everything that's going
 on in the world right now.
 Is it now justified?
 Well, I think it's justified due to the artificial intelligence narrative, but I do think it's
 justified from a narrow basis.
 And we certainly are going to have that test.
 If Dan is bringing the popcorn, I'll make sure that we're hydrated because it's going
 to be an interesting week next week with that telltale of earnings with those mega cap
 hyperscalers reporting.
 But what I think is really interesting is we started failing making higher highs on the
 market cap weighted index when the equal weight failed making a higher high.
 And if we even go look through what caused us pre-Iran conflict to even go to those
 higher highs, it was actually inflation expectations being at their lowest level since
 Jan of 2025.
 So I really think the nearest term catalyst is at 10 a.m. today when we're understanding
 those inflation expectations, those skyrocketed the most during the Iran conflict.
 Followed by the two-year note.
 So I'm literally looking for price action on the two-year note.
 What happens with inflation expectations?
 And that will feed into the story of broadening.
 But either way, there is still a tactical rally and setup for AI and we're seeing that
 today.
 All right.
 Interesting.
 Jessica, we just got some interesting, late breaking news here.
 According to Bloomberg, citing people familiar, the Chinese regulators are planning to restrict
 technology firms, including some of the country's highest-profile AI pioneers from accepting
 U.S. Capitol without government approval, all part of Beijing's broader response to
 meta-platforms, controversial acquisition of startup menace.
 I'm going to throw this one to you, Michelle.
 This is a very big development if it's going to be one in which this frames what happens
 between President Trump and President Xi, hypothetically, with their future summit.
 I'm not surprised because the United States does something very similar, right, with the
 Committee on Foreign Investment into the United States, where they look at, they want
 to make sure that a national adversary isn't using our technology platforms to do harm
 to us and is against our national interests.
 I'm not surprised that China would respond the same way, tit for tat, as well, to do the
 same kind of thing as they have the same strategic concerns that we do about our competition
 with them.
 Do you think it's going to change the discussion?
 I mean, it should, but do you think it alters the context around how the meeting potentially
 between President Trump and President Xi happens?
 It could.
 It could.
 I think there's a much bigger discussion they're going to be having about the situation
 in the straight-of-war moves, what's going on with Iran, as well.
 Those are greater concerns, I think, right now to China because of their reliance on oil
 from the Middle East.
 And Dan, from a global tech perspective, does this worry you at all with regard to how
 capital is flowing back and forth?
 As Michelle points out, syphias, right, that she mentions, already does that restriction
 here in the U.S.
 Yeah, I think, I mean, obviously, always great thoughts from Michelle.
 In my view, first time in 30 years, U.S. has had a China when it comes to tech.
 And I think it just speaks to this arms race playing out.
 That's what China's looking at.
 But again, this is just more bullish global capital, whereas it's going U.S. tech.
 All right.
 Now, let's move to that because that bullish U.S. tech story is going to play out perhaps
 this week and in the next because a lot of those Mag 7 names are reporting, that's
 your wheelhouse.
 Are you optimistic that these Mag 7 earnings can drive this next leg of the market?
 It's a bright green light.
 I mean, you own tech into these next few weeks.
 Next week, just going to be another brawminer for what I've used the AI revolution in
 this next gear.
 And I continue to believe in this AI trade.
 We're still in the, I'd say the first third of that trade, and that's why you continue
 to be bullish into tech.
 Michelle, just how much do these companies as large as they are, almost too big to fail?
 I use that little tongue and cheek.
 But how much do they have to be worried about the geopolitical state of affairs right
 now?
 So, let's talk about Iran specifically.
 And in terms of that being an equity, a market equity event, it's over.
 Everybody's moved on from that.
 There are negotiations ongoing with the Trump administration is discovering, or I'm sure
 new all along, is that there's internal factions within Iran.
 And just as we are negotiating with Iran, there are interior negotiations going on there
 as well.
 And probably big fights.
 When I traveled to Iran in 2016 for CNBC, we were invited by the government of Iran
 to report from there.
 And yet, when we went live from there, they would throttle our signal.
 Why?
 Because we had been invited by one faction.
 But another faction did not want us there, right?
 And we're seeing that play out in the negotiations.
 All right.
 And here on the big Fed meeting we have coming up, Jessica, you wouldn't mention rates
 before.
 What are the expectations from a trader's perspective on what we could expect to see on
 the rate front?
 Well, I'm obviously not going to see anything.
 We're going to see a hold from Fed Chair Powell.
 But what I think is going to be interesting is any commentary.
 Of course, because that's very data dependent.
 But I want to see how he feels about what's happening with the Iran conflict.
 And even more with let's wash and our new Fed Chair, because I actually want to see
 if he's going to mention trimmed inflation measures as wash is changing that.
 So I really think it's speaking to the credibility of the Fed and the transition that's going
 to move rates.
 And that will be our telltale sign.
 All right.
 Jessica Inskit, Michelle Cruz-Gabrera, Dan Ives, great morning calls.
 Thank you very much here for you guys in the panel discussion.
 We appreciate it.
 Let's check on those futures again right now.
 The Dow's implied lower at this point by roughly about 160 points.
 The S&P is relatively flat.
 But Intel's driving that NASDAQ trade, let's see what happens on Sparkbox.