My name is Gareth Soloway and I was a
losing trader until I mastered [music]
technical analysis. Logic and charts be
hype and narratives every time. Now I
teach investors the same techniques that
made me a [music] multi-millionaire.
This is my trading game plan.
Good morning everybody. Welcome to my
trading game plan. My name is Gareth
Soloway, chief market strategist here at
verifiedinvesting.com.
So, as we saw in the overnight, the
futures did take a dump this coming
after new strikes on Iran by the United
States and the president of the US
saying that the ceasefire is off the
table. He says sure negotiations can
continue, but he says they are a waste
of time. So, back to conflict in the
Middle East, at least some form of
conflict. Oil shooting up. Remember I
gave you guys a gap filled buy level
just a few days ago that triggered on
oil. I said oil will push up off of this
level based on technical analysis and it
gained 10% now in two days just like
that. Incredible stuff guys. Again the
charts almost predicting the news. Now
again how does that happen? I honestly
don't know. I just follow the charts and
it makes me right more than I am wrong.
All right so futures are down. We are
off of our lows of the morning session.
Let's flip over to the S&P futures here.
You can see this is really where the
futures took a major dump in the
overnight coming sharply down. We have
recovered somewhat but the S&P is still
slated to open decently lower today. So
again lower open. The question will be
can the semiconductors catch a bounce to
save the market. Right? We have oil
trading to the upside although off of
its highs already. Here's your oil daily
chart. And by the way this was the gap
fill. Remember I always talk about gap
fills. They are significant when you
look at technical analysis. This was the
gap initially when the conflict began
with Iran. Oil surging up to as high as
$120 a barrel. We then kind of kept
around that$1red to $110 level for a
period of time. Then oil slid down. Once
it filled the gap, it's like a trigger.
It's like lighting a fuse. Boom. There's
your bounce right there. One of the
trades that I took with Smart Money
Stocks and ETF members was Delta
Airlines on a short. Take a look at this
chart. It was a beautiful thing. Major
support trend line right here. We then
break below it. It then becomes
resistance. Notice every time it hits
the line, it gets rejected. I shorted
right up here into that trend line
overbought chart. And I did cover this
trade this morning for an over 8% gain
with members of Smart Money Stocks and
ETFs in just basically three trading
days. And the idea here was simple. Not
only did I have the trend line here on
Delta and an overbought scenario with E
divergences and other factors, but also
we knew that oil was going to bounce. So
if you have oil filling a gap and Delta
Airlines at extreme levels to the upside
into resistance, if oil bounces, what do
we think is going to happen to the
airline stocks? They should pull back.
And that's exactly what happened. Case
in point right there. Very cool stuff.
Again, when you start to put the pieces
of the puzzle together with the charts,
it really is remarkable how you start to
see these things. All right, so that's
where we are here. Again, oil getting a
good bounce, markets are lower today. If
we take a look here at the charts of the
S&P 500, you guys know what I'm looking
for here, right? We have this trend
line, which is now the line in the sand.
As long as the S&P stays above it, okay,
we are still in breakout territory. But
if we come back in and we get below this
line, the breakout has failed on the
daily chart of the S&P 500. And we would
expect a big move down. First stop at
7,000, which was the high from 2025, and
then ultimately a bigger move down,
probably eventually filling this gap in
here on the S&P. And that gets us all
the way back down to 6600 there. And
just a reminder where this trend line
that I'm using comes from. If we zoom
out on it here, folks, you can see again
this trend line goes back to the bull
market high of 2021 into 2022. We then
had our bare market and then we have our
highest point during 2025 right here and
then ultimately we broke out above and
now it's acting as support. So we did
get the breakout. There's no doubt about
it. The question is can the breakout
hold? And right now it is holding. Today
we're going to have a down day, but it
won't be as of now. It's not a
significant down day, but we want to see
if we come back in towards this 7315
level on the S&P, does that hold? We've
hit it once, it held. We've hit it
twice, it's held. If we hit it a third
time, can it still hold on the S&P?
NASDAQ 100 a little bit different. you
have the same general trend line that
goes back to 2021 here uh which is a
high pivot from the bull market to the
high pivot in 2025 in October. But the
difference is we have not retested this
line just yet. Now why hasn't it
retested? Well, the the answer is pretty
simple is that the NASDAQ 100 has such a
big waiting in semiconductors and until
recently the semis have just been so
strong that the NASDAQ hasn't pulled
back. But I do think that is coming and
I think we're very close to maybe
triggering it today. I want to show you
this watch that I'm looking at this
trend line that I have that I'm
watching. If you look at this chart, all
right, we go to just the last week and a
half or so. It's very clear that there's
a support level that is holding right
here. Look at all the hits of this line,
how it's held. Okay. So, the idea here
is that if this line breaks, if we get a
daily close below this, we should see a
move down on the NASDAQ 100 QQQ to this
level around 675. So right now
pre-market we're trading right around
that line. Watch today. Does it get
saved again? Do we start to trend up
over the coming days or do we break in
which case we will likely trend down
into that line. Couple other tidbits to
watch, guys, that are important. This
one's a big one here. You have the NAS
uh the US 10-year yield. The 10-year
yield continues to go up. It has now
rallied just in the last week from 3 uh
4.36
to now 4.56.
That's a 20 basis point rally in the
10-year yield. And again, right now the
markets aren't paying a lot of attention
to the 10-year yield. But if we come up
to the recent highs of 4.7%,
you have to think the markets start to
get a little bit nervous about rates
moving back up. The other thing to think
about is that with oil moving back up,
if oil stays elevated at 75, 80, maybe
$85 a barrel, it holds inflation higher
for longer, right? There's a higher
tendency to see inflation in the
passroughs to keep that up and that's
going to put more pressure on the Fed
and make it harder for them to cut rates
in the future if that's the case. All
right. The other thing that we have to
be monitoring here is the US dollar
Japanese yen here. The dollar yen. The
dollar yen which had pulled back after
briefly getting above this major pivot.
It pulled back. It's now fighting back
up. Keep an eye on this. This has a lot
to do with the yen carry trade and
potential intervention. And again, in
August of 2024, I believe it was, we had
a massive stock market correction. In
about two weeks, the NASDAQ dropped like
15% because of this exact thing. So,
keep it on your radar. You can see it
right over here. This was the last time
that happened. Look at what ended up
happening there on the dollar yen. And
again, if something like that does
occur, that will have an impact to the
market. So, this is kind of this would
be on my top tier of risks for the
market. This and the 10-year yield. Is
oil on my top risks? No, not really.
Believe it or not, I don't think oil at
$75 a barrel is a big risk. Now, on the
longer scale, does it keep inflation
higher for longer? Yes. But when we're
talking about immediate risks, like
today, if I had to name my top three
risks for the day, I would say the
semiconductors, if they continue to
collapse, that's a risk for the market
immediate. If we see the 10-year yield
keep pushing up and the dollar yen
pushing up, those would be my three
risks, highest risks for the day. All
right, let's continue on here. Let's
take a look at a few charts. I'm keeping
an eye on some of these semiconductors
uh because I actually think if they keep
flushing, they're going to become great
bounce opportunity swing trades. So, AAT
Applied Materials, which is down a
little bit pre-market. Take a look at
this chart. There's a big gap fill right
here just below 500. We're trading at
$545 right now. This would not be
outlandish to see AAT get to this level.
So again, a at this level, I'd actually
buy it for a technical bounce and that
would be a pierce of the even number 500
plus a gap fill right there. Okay,
looking at Micron, Micron has come down,
you can see Micron was as low as 875 in
the early morning this morning. It's
bounced back to about 900. But again, if
we go to the daily chart and we flip
over to that one, it you can see number
one, the daily chart has broken down. So
that means we have now potentially put
in a major pivot top on micron up here.
But that doesn't mean we're not going to
get massive bounces. And for me, I would
start to get interested right in this
zone. Let me put it in. Actually, this
one's actually a zone because there's
two levels very, very close. We have
that area there down to the gap fill.
Okay, so there's a gap right here and
here would be gap fill at around 750.
But we also have a pivot high right here
at around 8:14. So, this zone would be
my bounce level. Now, do I like this as
a long-term entry on Micron? Heck no.
Heck no. These things, in my opinion,
will correct 75% uh in the next 12
months. Um so, again, they'll be a swing
trade only and then likely shorts up
into resistance. Like if Micron rallied
all the way back up for instance back to
this level here, that becomes a huge
shortable level for a big drop again.
Same thing on SanDisk, right? SanDisk,
nice bounce off of the lows yesterday,
but was still down about 7%. Is down
this morning. Pre-market, this went down
below, 1500 again. Where is the swing
trade level on this? For me, this would
be a fantastic level right down here
around 11.85. You can see you have a gap
right there. And then this is really the
beginning of that blowoff top uh
retrace. In addition, it's also a
Fibonacci zone right in here as well in
this approximate area on SanDisk. So the
key here is this guys is that when it
all comes down to it, I don't care what
the stock is. I don't care if it's a
semiconductor, oil trade, a gold trade.
I'm always looking at the charts. And by
doing that, I strip away all emotional
attachment. That allows me to see the
levels and the probabilities much much
clearer. It's very very powerful when
you get to that point where you don't
care about what you're trading. All you
care about is the chart. And again, I
encourage you guys to obviously take my
my psychology, my mindset course. That
will change the way you view everything.
You'll start to recognize when you're
getting emotional. You'll be able to
course correct. And then as always,
folks, we have right now just through
the 12th, so there's not many days left.
We have our 40% off all of our courses
here at Verified Investing. Those are
all 40% off, but just through July 12th.
So, we're coming towards the end of this
July 4th sale. All right, let's get into
a couple other charts here. Then we'll
get into gold and silver and uh natural
gas with Bitcoin. I am going to keep an
eye on Walmart. Walmart making a little
bearish inside bar. This has finally
started to correct the level on this for
a swing trade. You guys can probably see
it. There's a gap right here. A major
gap fill at $100. I love the even
numbers when they coincide with a gap
fill. Also, if we drag this trend line
over, look at this, guys. We drag this
trend line over and it goes right to
these high pivots. So, if we could get
another big dump on Walmart, this $100
level should be a fantastic buying
opportunity. All right, couple other
stocks that have made big moves today.
Alibaba getting some good news on
regulation. That stock is having a big
bounce today. It was beaten down. It's
been one of my favorites. In fact, we
had this we have this currently in smart
money stocks and ETFs. We're now up I
think about 8% on it. Uh but you can see
again it was as high as almost 110
today. It's currently trading around 107
but a big gap up on these and all the
Chinese names BYU today is up as well.
Again all of these names were beaten
down due for a technical bounce and sure
enough we are getting the bounce.
Another one on my radar here is Oracle.
Oracle continues to be oversold. You
have a key gap fill that occurred
yesterday. We also have double bottom
just a little bit below. So if we look
at this and we put a trend line in right
here, we can see again a lot of support
anywhere between 137 and about 135. So
tons of technical support there. Again,
filled the gap yesterday. If it flushes
today, we'll be looking at the double
bottom pivot low on OCL. All right,
moving over to gold. Gold again, let's
flip over to the daily chart. Gold is
pulling back. So again, many people
would think, oh well, there's unrest,
there's military action, there's this.
Maybe gold would go up. Nope. Gold is
coming down today. And again, even on
the bounce here, look, it never even got
to the upper range of resistance. Now,
the key is going to be, can it hold this
just below $4,000 level? If it can't,
it's going to 36 to 3500 on uh gold. And
that'll be a big big buying opportunity
for me at least. and I just speak for
myself, but that's kind of my zone of
where I start to accumulate gold for my
longer term holdings of adding to those.
Okay, so keep an eye on that. But gold
is down this morning and silver playing
out exactly like the chart dictated
here. So if we look at silver, right, we
had our pivot low, pivot low and pivot
low. We broke, we confirmed, we
retraced, now becomes resistance. This
was support over here, right? Now it
becomes resistance and silver falling to
the downside. And that's exactly what
you would anticipate happening. That's
case in point the methodology that I
teach in the winning trader series which
like I said is 40% off until July 12th.
Natural gas today. The cup and handle
continues to form. Nat gas up
fractionally. I don't see anything yet
that's triggering a buy from me, but
this is on my top radar of a chart that
could be an opportunity for a big move
to the upside. Bitcoin last is pulling
back today. Again, Bitcoin's had a great
bounce, pulling back a little bit. My
question would be here is could we pull
back a little bit more and then start to
turn up and in the process form an
inverse head and shoulder pattern,
right? And for those of you that don't
know the inverse head and shoulder
pattern, let me draw it in. We have
shoulder, head,
and again, I'm getting a little sloppy
here because I'm using my mouse pad
versus an actual mouse since I'm on
vacation. But nonetheless, you guys get
the gist of that. Again, are we going to
get that type of pattern to curl up and
then break higher? So, I'm I'm keeping
an eye on this. Just because it's
forming doesn't mean it has formed.
Please understand on a technical basis
the probability is only when you get the
big formation meaning you need the right
shoulder to form which we haven't formed
yet. And then the trigger is when you
break the neckline. The neckline break
is what you're looking for on the chart.
And where would be the neckline or where
is the neckline of an inverse head and
shoulders? The inverse head and
shoulders neckline connects essentially
the armpit to the armpit. So it would be
a break above this trend line that
triggers it for that next leg up on
Bitcoin. And listen, what we have to
also recognize is that if Bitcoin breaks
here and takes out this low, then it's
going to 50,000, right? So again,
sometimes in charts, you are just in a
wait and see. Kind of like on natural
gas. Natural gas, I see the pattern.
It's a bullish pattern. I has it has I
don't have a secondary factor yet,
though. I'm just sitting on the
sidelines watching it intently. Same
thing with Bitcoin. And if it forms the
inverse head and shoulders, I start to
get more interesting interested. But
until it forms, it's just price action.
And again, that's one of the ways where
you increase your probabilities versus
people that jump early. You know, some
people will say, "Oh, well, you know,
there's two sideways candles, so that's
a bull flag." Not really. I mean, two
sideways candles do not make a bull
flag. Could be, but you need more
sideways candles. Um, and so people that
jump early get a lower win rate versus
people that wait for maturity. Now, if
you wait for maturity, do you sometimes
miss the trade? Yes. But at the same
time, you find yourselves not losing
more and fighting trades more, which
honestly that's extra stress in
everyone's life, right? I mean, my life,
if I'm fighting a trade is stressful.
I'm sure you guys feel the same way. And
so, it does the the more disciplined you
get, the more intact your brain gets in
to terms of strictly looking at charts
in probability terms, basically, the
lower stress and the higher profit
profitability you find yourself in. All
right, guys. I am going to get going
today back to my trading room. We had a
great trading day yesterday with the
volatility in the live day trading room.
Um feel free to come and join us. You we
have daily, weekly, and monthly passes
in there. You can come in. You get all
our trades. You see them on the
portfolio in real time. Um P&L's moving
in real time. We're giving you our
exits, all of that stuff. It's pretty
darn cool. Um anyways, hope you guys
come and join us. I'll talk to you soon.