My name is Gareth Soloway and I was a
losing trader until I mastered technical
analysis. Logic and charts beat hype and
narratives every time. Now I teach
investors the same techniques that made
me a multi-millionaire. This is my
trading game plan.
Good morning everybody. Welcome to my
trading game plan. My name is Gareth
Soloway, chief market strategist here at
verifiedinvesting.com.
So, we got a little bit of economic news
this morning. We got jobless claims
coming in at 215,000.
That continues to be historically very,
very low with no sign, at least from
that economic number, that there is any
recession looming at this point.
Generally, the warning sign is above
250,000
jobless claims per week. And again,
we're well below that at 215,000. And
then really if you get to 300,000
jobless claims per week, that is where
you start to see kind of the recession
at that point. All right. So again, just
going over that economic data. Now, in
terms of other news out there, uh the US
did strike Iran in the overnight, but
oil continues to not really jump further
than it did yesterday. So we had a nice
update on oil yesterday. Today it is
pulling back just a little bit. there
still seems to be this kind of limited
strike mentality as the midterms come
closer and closer and I think that's
probably what Iran is banking on in
terms of negotiating as well with the
midterms getting nearer and nearer. Now
futures today are trading up. If we take
a look at the S&P futures, we can see
again in the overnight we kind of
floated neutral to higher. So we're
looking at an up day on Wall Street
today. And if we go to the S&P, we can
see yesterday we had a down day overall,
but it was only a minor down day, down
about just under a third of 1%. Early in
the day on the back of the fear of an
escalation in the Middle East, we saw
the futures trading down or the S&P
trading down. But when all was said and
done, the markets had basically closed
the gap. NASDAQ even closed fractionally
higher as the semiconductors began to
bounce. Now the semis today folks they
are driving the markets higher. So we're
looking at Micron, SanDisk, Broadcom.
Those names are really ripping to the
upside. On the other side, we're seeing
software stocks come down just a bit.
And that's the classic money rotation
that we've become very familiar with is
that when semis go up, we see names like
Microsoft and Google come in on the
software side. And that again is
happening today as well. Now, we'll go
into the semiconductors because this is
a classic retrace. We've broken major
trend lines on names like STX and
Micron. Now, the bounce comes in, which
is very normal, but you're now going to
retrace back to the scene of the crime,
the major trend line that was broken to
the downside. So, we're going to look at
that in just a second. Before we do
that, just a refresher on the S&P 500.
We know that this is your major downside
level right here at around that 7310
level. That to me is the line in the
sand. As long as we stay above that, the
market has the potential to make a new
all-time high on the S&P 500. If we ever
break that to the downside and confirm,
that's where the warning sign really and
the selling should accelerate. And
again, this isn't just a technical
trading line. This is a line that
algorithms will be monitoring as well.
Again, I'm not the only one to have
trend lines, obviously. And so, you have
algorithmic trend line programming in
there, which if we break that line,
you'll see the algorithm start to
trigger in for a sell-off to the 7,000
level on the S&P, which would be another
300 points down. From that level, from
where we currently are, that would be
about 500 points to the downside. Okay.
Uh on the upside, if we continue to
rally higher and we make new all-time
highs, one of the things we like to do,
you like to connect major pivot highs.
And so what I would do is I'd look at
this trend line as being the major one.
Notice again that you have this high
from 2025
through the 2020 late 2025 pivot high.
And it goes right up to this recent high
pivot right there. That would be your
upside resistance, which would be around
7700. All right. So, we know support is
at 7,300. Resistance is at 7700.
And right now, the S&P is trading about
at the midpoint between those two trend
lines. The question is, are we headed to
this one or this one? And I think
ultimately a lot of this is going to be
determined by the economic data coming
out over the next couple weeks and
months. Um, all right. So, let's go into
a couple other charts here of interest.
Yesterday, we talked about the 10-year
yield. The 10-year yield today is
pulling back just a shade, but we did
hit 4.6% yesterday. So, we're slowly
moving up to that major high just
underneath 4.7%.
That to me is a major break point.
That'll be where the markets start to
get very skittish about yields going up.
Now, as long as oil doesn't continue to
go up, then it's unlikely, in my
opinion, that we're going to see further
upside in the 10-year yield. Now, it's
not to say the 10-year yield is going to
come in sharply either. I want to be
clear on that. I think there's this
systemic inflation that we all see,
right? Whether they tell you oil is
down, which it is down from the highs of
100 plus, um that will be the running
narrative that they'll push to say,
okay, inflation's going to come down.
But when you look at things really
inflation continues to be the systemic
issue that we're all dealing with. You
know, prices continue to inch up month
after month, little by little, and it
adds up, frankly, as we all see out
there. But ultimately again for the
market to really be concerned 4.7%. And
then on the downside we're now starting
to see a trend line forming here
connecting these pivot points at around
four 4.4%. And that 4.4% will be a key
point to watch should we come back into
that level. All right. The other one was
the dollar yen. This is a very very
important chart to keep an eye on. The
dollar yen pulling back just a little
bit. We're still hovering just above
this level. And remember how the carry
trade works, right? People borrow money
from Japan in yen and they then invest
it in US. They get the spread of the in
the low interest rates in Japan which
obviously have gone up s quite a bit
recently. Um but then they get the
higher interest rates here in the US.
But the problem is this chart and the
weakening yen is putting pressure on
that carry trade. And that again is
going to be some major potential issues
if we see an unwind in that trade.
Again, we're talking trillions of
dollars here that's at risk. So while
today we're not seeing any fear or
recently we haven't, this is still a
chart the dollar yen that's in a warning
pattern that has to be monitored as one
of the major risks for the overall
market. All right. Next up, what I want
to do is take us into some of the key
movers on the day. If we take a look,
the first one is Astroenica. Astroenica
having a drug trial. I think it's a a
heart medication that did not pass
muster. It did not pass its phase uh two
or three trial um basically did not
result in good numbers. And we are
seeing this stock trading sharply lower
here. Now, this is a big drug stock. So,
generally this down move is a pretty
sizable drop. If we look at the daily
chart, the first level that I have of of
major technical support is right in here
around 163. 163 will be something to
keep an eye on here. Uh again, this
isn't a hugely traded liquid stock
that's traded in the US. Granted, it
traded about 2 million shares yesterday,
so that's not bad. But again, for the
most part, it's a foreign company uh
from Europe. And again, just in general,
it doesn't you can see the the trades
here on the daily chart are not robust.
It's not a lot of volatility. So, this
is a big day for this. I mean, this is
going to be a big gap down. I will be
monitoring for a trade around that 162
to 163 level on an intraday basis. Pepsi
reported earnings this morning. Their
earnings again, it was more guidance
that came up a little bit short here and
obviously the stock is coming back in
due to that guidance. If we look at the
daily chart, there's a major gap fill
near term right here at this pivot low
at around 13540.
That should be technical support. That
could be a day tradable level for a
quick intraday scalp. On a bigger time
frame, if we look here, we can see that
there's also a area of support right in
here. This is actually a pretty solid
level as well. You can see all of these
highs right through here. There's also a
gap fill and that's at 132. So again,
you know, a couple levels there, 13540
and 132 or so. Those will be the two
levels that are monitored today. Now, we
talked about the semiconductors. Let's
get into the semi-trade because the
semiconductors, as big as those
companies are, incredible volatility.
Just I mean, for trading purposes, you
can't beat this type of action. If we
take a look here, we look at Micron.
Let's bring that chart up. Now, Micron
having a big gap up today after closing
at 948 yesterday is trading at 1,0
today. Great gap up. Now again, what
this is what's going on here is what we
call a retrace to the scene of the
crime. So we had support, right? You had
this support lines, support structure
here, and then we continued up. We came
back in and we continued and finally we
broke. Now, there's a tendency here for
charts when they break these key support
structures to fall and then they rally
back up to that trend line and that's
called a retrace to the scene of the
crime. And what was support prior now
becomes resistance. And so the idea is
is that if we get up to this level here,
let's say around 11:25 or so, and this
is more of a swing trade, uh, but this
here should be major resistance. You
also have a gap fill around 1150. So
11:25 to 1150. There should be massive
resistance and a good rejection level if
Micron can get up there. So that'll be
what I look for there. uh for a move up
into that level and then a pullback off
of that level. So, monitor that on a day
tradable opportunity. Um there'll be a
couple levels along the way. 1065 would
be my first potential day trade pivot
point. STX is very similar here. Big gap
up today. Here's that same trend line
break that we saw on Micron. We're now
bouncing back. This trend line right
here. Great level at around 965. It's a
retrace to the scene of the crime. And
there's also a gap fill right here as
well. So that would yield a multiffactor
resistance level. Good probably for a
day trade as well as potentially a swing
trade. All right. So again, very nice to
see on that. And you could go on and on,
right? I mean, WDC, we've seen this one
here. This one's a little bit more
intriguing because it had a lower trend
line and we kind of dipped below it and
then they recaptured it. They're
bouncing it up. But on on WDC, I'm
looking at 632 or so as big resistance
today. That's a good gap fill right
there. More so just as a day trade. I
don't have a multiple factor on that one
now. We're seeing that the semis are all
having these monstrous bounces. Right?
So then on the other side we have to say
okay well where's the money coming from
for those bounces? And the answer is
from the software names. So we're seeing
software stocks getting punished today.
Not hugely but again Microsoft here you
can see Microsoft is trading down around
uh 375. That's from a close yesterday of
383. And that's that same in reversion
trade right so money goes from one area
to the other then from that area back
the other and again back and forth
between semis and software. Now in terms
of an opportunity here there is a gap
fill around 373 on Microsoft that could
be of interest. Um I'm also keeping an
eye on a swing basis. If we connect
these recent lows here, we can see that
again there's technical support right
down around that 350 level or a pierce
of 350. So on a swing basis, again, that
would be the level below 350 for a swing
long. On a day trade for today's action
in the live day trading room, I'll be
eyeing this 373 level. Okay? And then
other names, we could go through them,
but I mean Googlephabets
coming in here. You can see that's down
here in the free market. Um so again big
bounce in the semis but then that money
flow is coming from the software names
Allah Microsoft couple other names to go
over we did see SpaceX breaking below
its opening levels from the IPO. Now
this wasn't the IPO price. Remember the
IPO price that people got before it it
started trading publicly was $135.
Um so we did close below that. We're
seeing a little bit of a technical
bounce today. But really, if you're
asking me where I would be interested in
this, I would have to go back to $135.
One thing to note about IPOs is that for
a certain period of time, the
institutions that bring a company like
SpaceX Pub public, they will defend the
135 level. Now, again, for how long?
Probably only for another couple weeks
or so or a month. uh once they report
earnings, the lockup for a lot of shares
is released and the institutions won't
stand in front of it at that point. All
right? Because again, there's just going
to be too much selling pressure from the
lockup being undone there. But in the
near term, that 135 level, if it ever
flushes there before earnings, that
should be a level that the institutions
defend. You might say, well, why do they
defend it? Well, the answer is very
simple is that it looks really bad,
right? these companies, the same
institutions, the Black Rocks, the
Goldman Sachs, the Gold Morgan
Stanley's, they're the ones that are
always bringing the big companies
public. And so when they're being chosen
by the companies like SpaceX or Chate
Open AAI, ChatGpt or Claude/anthropic,
they need to basically say, well, look
at this stock. We brought this public
and it traded and stayed above its IPO
level. And so there's a certain amount
of money allocated to defending that IPO
price at 135. Now, once the lockup
starts releasing, then they don't have
to defend it anymore because it's just
too hard. It takes too much money from
the institutions to defend it. All
right, little insight there into the
institutional side for you guys. All
right, couple other stocks out there to
watch. Well, let's go into gold.
Actually, let's take a look at gold
here. Gold is catching a bid today after
a couple down days in a row. We're
getting a little bit of a bound up B a
bid up. Notice here how we are seeing
the wedge pattern tighten tighter and
tighter. But what that tells us is that
there will have to be a breakout or
breakdown in this wedge pattern uh
sooner than later, probably within the
next few weeks. And that's going to be a
big move. One thing we know about wedge
patterns, folks, is that when wedge
patterns form and keep price within
those zones for long periods of time,
like on gold, then eventually when they
break one way, it's usually a very big
move. There's essentially, think about
it like a release, like a release valve.
Um, it's compressing, it's it's
pressurizing, it's more and more
pressure, and then it's released. And
that causes price to then push sizably
in that direction which gives us as
traders great insight knowing that we
can just watch for the breakout or break
down and then jump on board in that
direction and there is money to be made
uh usually in those scenarios. So just
keep that in in in your back of your
mind here as the wedge pattern tightens
and tightens more. Looking at silver
today. Silver again good little bounce
after getting rejected off. This is a
classic scene of the crime by the way.
what we showed on STX earlier and Micron
retracing those were ascending trend
line retraces but it's it's very similar
to this right you have your low pivot we
broke below it and now then you retraced
and got rejected and so that's
essentially just showing you how you
know these these pattern techniques can
work over and over again even in
different scenarios silver again getting
a little bit of a bounce today on silver
if it were to recapture this 6364 level
then you look for a attack of 71 or So,
and if it can finally break out of 71,
then it's game on to the upside. But
again, a lot of resistance up here on
silver in the near term. Oil today, nice
little drop on oil, which is helping
prop up the stock market a little bit
and keep those bit that bid in the stock
market. Uh yesterday, we had the second
update in a row on the reescalation of
the conflict between the US and Iran.
Today, kind of calming things down just
a little bit. I still think for the most
part, we're probably going to stay
between these two trend lines. You have
resistance up here at 79, support at 67.
Uh, but I will say by year end or even a
little sooner, I would expect eventually
a breakdown in oil and that will the
trigger for that is likely going to be a
slowing economy. So, as soon as we see
the US economy starting to struggle a
little bit, whether it's capex slowing
down, whether it's other issues out
there in the economy, that's when oil
will start to break lower. As long as
the economy stays strong and the demand
is there, then oil likely isn't going to
go much lower than the current recent
lows of 67. All right, let's flip over
to natural gas. Remember, we've been
watching that uh cup and handle pattern
on the chart and that gas today moving
lower. Still within that range, but
we'll keep a very very close eye on that
pattern setup. But again, right now, no
sign I told you every day that there's
we have the cup and handle, which is
great. need a secondary factor before I
go long. Without that secondary factor,
there's not much for me to do here just
yet. Lastly, Bitcoin. Bitcoin catching a
little bit of a bid today, yesterday, or
had two down days in a row. Again, what
I'm curious about is are we forming an
inverse head and shoulders here. And
here would be your neckline. If we can
break through this neckline, I think you
get decent move up. My guess is we would
see Bitcoin back to 70,000 at least. Um,
if we can get a breakout of Bitcoin
here. So, we'll have to keep a close eye
on this chart. And really, again, the
nice thing about this chart is that
number one, the pattern hasn't fully
formed yet. We need to see something
like this, right? Getting that other
shoulder. We have our left shoulder
here. We have our head and there's our
right shoulder, right? And so, we need
to see that form. But what's nice about
it is if you take out this line in the
low of the head, then it's just negated
and it's just, okay, well, now it's
going to 50,000. So, anytime in the
future when we break this, okay, well,
it's going to 50,000. But as long as we
kind of continue to form this,
especially if we get a breakout, we
should get a bigger move to the upside
here, a measured move in fact on that
chart of Bitcoin. So, I continue to be
optimistic near-term on Bitcoin that
there's still more upside to be had. I
still think there's too much bearishness
out there on Bitcoin as well. All right,
guys. Don't forget 40% off on all our
courses here at Verified Investing with
only a few days left now on that sale. I
believe we have 3 days after today left
on that 40% off sale. So, take advantage
of my mindset course if you want to
start to train your brain to be
non-emotional. That's the course you
want to do it. It's incredible how it
starts to make you recognize the
patterns, the the emotional triggers.
Um, and when you're getting in certain
zones, you get the gambler mentality or
you get the the fear and panic
mentality. And you want to stay right in
the middle of that. And then obviously,
winning trader series is 40% off. So,
that's a huge discount there, which is
awesome. That's everything I know that
I've learned in 27 years uh in trading
is in that winning trader series pro
edition right now. 40% off. And of
course, lastly, guys, all our other
courses are 40% off as well. We have
some great ones, the sleeper hold,
trader core, go on and on. I mean,
they're just great, great courses. All
right, I'm going to get going, guys.
Thank you so much for tuning in. I'll
see you soon.