My name is Gareth Soloway and I was a
losing trader until I mastered technical
[music] analysis. Logic and charts beat
hype and narratives every time. Now I
teach investors the [music] same
techniques that made me a
multi-millionaire. This is my trading
game plan.
Hey everybody, welcome to my trading
game plan. My name is Gareth Soloway,
chief market strategist here at
verifiedinvesting.com.
And of course, we're going to deep dive
into all the market action covering the
stock market, crypto, commodities, and
beyond. So, the first thing to note
today, the markets are opening a little
bit lower to flat on the day. Not much
going on out there. Everyone was waiting
for the big news today, the SKH Highix
debut. This is American Depository
Shares, ADS shares that'll be debuting
today. It was given to insiders ahead of
the IPO at $149
per ads per share and that again will be
a key component. Now yesterday we saw
the semiconductors rally sharply out of
the gate but once again many of them
faded. We saw for instance uh SanDisk
falling almost $100 off its high of the
day late in the day and Micron also
pulling back. Now listen, both of those
names and many of the semiconductors
stayed positive on the day, but these
continue to be breadcrumbs that have me
concerned that there's more downside in
the semiconductor sector. In addition,
we just have to be honest. SK Heinik
send selling $28 billion in stock in the
US market. That's going to be
competition for investors that are
looking for that pure play in memory.
All right, just is what it is. All
right, so let's dive into the charts. Uh
folks, my last video by the way from
Mexico. So next week I'll be on the
Pacific coast of the United States for a
week, then back home in the west or the
east coast of the US. Now let's go right
into the charts here. You can see this
was yesterday's price action. Remember
early in the day we had a little bit of
a dip. Then we rallied up the rest of
the day and kind of went sideways into
the close. Overnight you can see the
markets faded a tiny bit. We've got a
little bit here in the morning session
and then a small pullback as the markets
continue to watch some key things. So
number one, I continue to focus in on
the dollar yen. And I'm telling you
guys, this is the thing that most
mainstream media outlets are not warning
you about, but the weakness in the
dollar yen has the potential to create
some major issues for the overall
market. And the idea is it's in the yen
carry trade. to the yen carry trade if
it has to unwind or something goes on
because the Japanese yen continues to
weaken so massively that is a major risk
when we saw it back in 2024 in the S&P
500 when the stock market dropped
significantly and I could show you that
actually if we go back to 2024 here we
can see that we had a big swoon
especially in the NASDAQ right here and
again it doesn't look that big when you
go back in history but in a matter of
just a couple weeks here. If we look at
this, we had a big drop in the S&P. This
was again about a 5% draw down. That
doesn't seem like much, but if we go to
the NASDAQ, the NASDAQ 100 saw, I
believe, as much as a 10% correction
from that peak, the trough. And again,
the problem now is is that we're even
more lever, right? So, we're even more
levered here on the markets as we
continue through. And that has to be
something that is continued to ke be
kept on our radar. And I got to go even
back here further. There it is right
here. This is the collapse here. Look at
this guys. Look at the draw down. So the
NASDAQ fell and this was on the daily
chart. So this is a matter of basically
two to three weeks. The NASDAQ fell 16%
when the last time the dollar yen was
trading up in this range. And so again,
you know, again, many people kind of
say, and by the way, this is the this is
what happens. Very similar, right? We're
at right at that double top trying to
break out on this dollar yen chart. And
the idea again is that what ends up
happening is that you have currency
intervention which then spooks the
market. It creates a pullback or kind of
exodus of the dollar yen which is
literally trillions of dollars all of a
sudden kind of reverting. It gets pulled
from US investments because it has to go
back into the other forms of back to the
Japanese markets. And for those of
you that don't understand the the carry
trade, the Terry trade, the whole idea
of the carry trade is to borrow money
from Japan because it's so so much
cheaper with interest rates and then you
invest it or you put it in the US and
you make more money. So it's getting
that spread. When that unwinds, it has
major implications. In addition, we
can't deny the fact that the Japanese
markets continue to see kind of risky
behavior, right? Debt to GDP is 250%. We
see their bond market has started to go
nuts. We've been watching recently the
10-year yield in Japan just starting to
skyrocket. They are on a landmine that
could have major ripple effects in the
overall global markets. All right, so
keep an eye on that. 10-year yield in
the US today, basically flattish
overall. And if we flip to the S&P 500,
what we can see here is the S&P 500 had
an upday yesterday. But don't forget,
we're still monitoring these very, very
important trend lines, right? We have
our trend line that I've been watching.
It's kind of my line in the sand. If we
go back to our major pivot highs here,
and again, I'm going all the way back to
the 2021 bull market. And we take a line
right there and we go right through
these highs here. I'm trying to do it as
exact as I can for you guys. Look at
that zone. So, this becomes right high
pivot to the high pivot right there.
Notice how price has come down on the
S&P and tagged it twice. The concept
here is very simple is that this was a
breakout, right? I think we can all
agree we broke out above this trend line
and we've come back and we've retested
it twice. Now, that's okay because it's
held. If it doesn't hold and it breaks,
that's a failed breakout. And again, I
would warn you that historically, and
remember, everything we talk about is
data driven and chart did driven. When
you look at 50 of these scenarios on
charts, a 100, a thousand, the the
percentages tell us that the biggest
moves come from failed moves. So, if you
fail the breakout and we break back
below here, it's not just a small move.
You'll get a bounce here at these former
high pivots right here from last year or
earlier this year, but then you get even
more downside and it's likely turns into
a much bigger corrective move, possibly
even a major bare market. All right.
Now, on the other side, if we do rally
up, and it's very possible we could
continue to rally up on the S&P 500,
what we're doing here is we're taking
our highest pivot 25. We connect it
right through to our highest pivot here
in 2026,
right? Right through there, and we drag
that up. If we can drag that up. There
we go. And it goes right to that high.
And so in terms of upside risk, right,
if the markets rally up, you have this
about 7725
as your key resistance. So watch these
two levels. This here would be a sell
opportunity. This would be a buy
opportunity with a very tight stop
because if it breaks, watch out below.
And I would think that the odds based on
everything I'm looking at favor an
eventual breakback below this line. All
right, looking at the NASDAQ quickly
here. We have the NASDAQ 100. The NASDAQ
100. I talked about this small
short-term trend line and we defended it
again per two days ago with the bounce.
But watch, if this breaks, we test this
area here. If that breaks, we're going
all the way back down to this low. Now,
this low is actually that same trend
line that we were just viewing on the
S&P 500 going back to the bull market
high of 2021. And that has not been
tested yet. So, that's the positive. All
right. The positive is that the NASDAQ
because of the semiconductor AI trade
has been much much stronger. So, it's
well above this trend line versus the
S&P. Now, the question is, do we see a
catch-up trade, right? Maybe the NASDAQ
pulls back to this line, but the S&P
holds up. And we've actually seen that
more recently where that's been holding
up. All right, let's go on to some key
movers today. Well, we have to talk
about this chart. Now, there's no chart
here, right? But this is SKH Heinix.
This is the symbol that it's going to
open up under today. Again, like I
mentioned, this is a big test for the
appetite of investors. Remember, if we
look at SpaceX, SpaceX arguably had a
very poor first couple weeks, right? We
had the big debut. Money flooded in.
Remember, this was given to insiders at
$135. It opened at 150, went all the way
up to 225,
and then collapsed all the way back
down, and is basically barely holding on
to where investors were able to buy as
public investors at the open. So, a
majority of people that bought after, if
you didn't get it at the $135 IPO price,
then you basically are neutral or
negative on your trade. A majority of
people are down on SpaceX. Think about
that. A majority of people are negative
on SpaceX unless you were an insider.
And that to me is not a good
performance. Like that is not good to
have this thing so close to breaking
down. And if this gets to $135, that is
going to be worse. In addition, I would
just like to point out this fact is that
the lockups once they report their
earnings coming up in basically weeks,
their lockup is going to be massively
releasing literally hundreds of millions
of shares. And that to me, you're gonna
and you could say, well, why would
insiders sell here? Well, because they
got it at a dollar a share, right? These
are people that remember [snorts] SpaceX
has been around for 20 years. So, there
are investors that are in this with
almost a zero net entry price. And so,
even at $135, they're making a ton of
money. So, they're going to be
incentivized to sell, which is going to
put more pressure on this. And so the
idea is here as we get into SKH highix,
this is going to be a huge, and I
repeat, epic test of the AI memory
trade. How does the market absorb this?
Do we see stuff like we're seeing in
SpaceX where it surges initially, then
collapses, or are we going to see a
different format here? And again, I'm
not going to pretend to know the answer
to that question. We're just going to
have to watch. All right, so going on to
a couple other charts here. Netflix
here. They're talking about getting into
live streaming, maybe even sports and
other live streaming stuff. The stock
last night on this news fell sharply,
not sharply, but did dip. It's
recovering pretty well today as again
the spin is being put on. Now, I am long
with smart money uh stocks and ETFs
members. We're actually in the money on
this. We got in in the low 70s, so it's,
you know, we're up about I think we're
up about 4% or so on this position. But
the idea here is that if they're having
to reach, what that's telling you is
that their growth is slowing. And I
remember basically was it about a year
ago or maybe three quarters ago when
they stopped reporting subscriber
numbers and they just went to revenue
and I always said back then that that
was a warning sign. Anytime a company
stops reporting a specific number, it's
basically a red alert that that number
is slowing, right? In other words, they
don't want to talk about it because it's
not as good. And so we've really seen
that now at these valuation levels. Is
Netflix reasonable? Yeah, I actually
think it is. And I actually remain long
even on this news. I actually like it
for a move up. Day trade- wise, there's
nothing here. But what we do see when we
look at the chart, you can see why I
entered my swing trade with members here
at verified investing is because we were
right here at the low end of this trend
line. And we have seen a bounce. And I
think we should go a little bit higher,
potentially as high as 85 on this before
it starts getting back to a more
realistic price point. Now, other stocks
here, guys, Delta reported earnings this
morning. Delta again, initially popping,
then falling. Overall, their numbers
were really, really good, but again,
there's a lot of unknowns here about the
US economy. And frankly, the stock has
been on an incredible run until
recently. And by the way, we we closed
out a short on this just two days ago.
Um, right here on the gap down right in
this area had a short from this trend
line. Look at how the charts just guide
me. I mean, again, if you guys haven't
checked out this the subscriptions of
ver at verifiedinvesting.com, they are
just epic overall because again, it's
all chart driven. And so, listen, it's
not right always. I I mean, I certainly
have my fair share of losses, but do we
win more than we lose? Heck yeah,
absolutely we do. Okay, so Delta pulling
back. It's not down enough for a trading
opportunity today. So, I'll keep my eyes
on that and see and guide you guys to
where things go. Um, but again,
interesting price action there. Now,
before we get into anything else, I just
want to remind you guys, uh, my videos
here are sponsored. Rumble Wallet.
Rumble is a two plus billion dollar
company, monster size company, guys. And
as always, I always tell you, I'm
looking at my phone right now because I
always want to just remind you guys, I
have Rumble Wallet on my phone. I use it
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I love the fact that it's a big company
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code is right there. The link will be in
the description. Check it out. Check it
out. It makes it so easy to buy and sell
crypto and gold in that Rumble wallet
and I use it almost every day for my
trades. Okay, so let's get back to the
charts here as we continue through uh
Micron today guys. Micron, notice the
fade yesterday from here. Micron was
trading at around 1,026.
It faded all the way down to 9.88. It's
down again this morning. And this is
going to be interesting. I'm going to
watch when SK Highix debuts. How does
Micron respond? That is going to be in
incredibly insightful. Same thing for
Sandis, right? Sandis, look at Sandis
yesterday. It topped out at 9 $1,950.
It closed all the way down around $1850
and then floating up after hours, then
dumping today again. And again, these
memory stocks in the AI trade to me are
an incredible risk. When you have a a
daily a weekly engulfing candle on the
socks, that is a scary chart. And I say
that's scary because it is the most. And
here's your daily engulf or weekly
engulfing candle. See this candle right
here? The big move up. We opened above
it on the weekly. We closed below the
low on the weekly. That is a reversal
engulfing candle. That is a scary signal
there, folks. That that that's not just
usually a small pullback. That's usually
a pullback, a bounce, and then further
lows. So, I continue to be bearish
there. Now, looking here, guys, at the
charts on various things. We're looking
at um Meta going up. They're talking
about again debuting a new AI chip that
they're making. This is again another
negative for the AI space because it's
more competition, more players that are
developing their own chips out there.
Tesla chart today remains uh looks like
it's going to open flat, but notice how
it's in a wedge pattern. So, basically,
as a chartist, I'm just monitoring to
see which direction makes a big break
one way or the other. Does it break to
the downside? All right. Well, then it's
falling sharply to the downside. That'll
be a big move to the downside. Probably
10 15% at minimum. Same thing to the
upside. We break to the upside, we could
head back to our all-time highs. But
while it's in the wedge, I sit on the
sidelines and just watch. All right,
let's get into gold real quick, guys.
Gold small down day today. The wedge
here is getting tighter. Remember what I
just said on Tesla? It applies on every
wedge where we're watching to see, do we
break to the upside, do we break to the
downside? It gets tighter and tighter
inside of this wedge. Looking at silver.
Silver broke here, the lower support
line, retraced, rejected. I continue to
think silver is going to 54 and then $50
and even sub $50. Now listen, will I
start to buy it around 54 to 53? Yes,
I'll start slowly accumulating and
dollar cost averaging all the way down
to my lowest that I listen and it could
go lower. Obviously, charts go lower
than I think they can go, just like they
go higher than I think they can go
because emotion drives charting. But the
kicker is this is that once we get in
the low 50s for me it starts to become
all right inch in with a pinky toe here
then a then a bigger toe and and just
kind of dollar cost averaging because I
do think silver and gold longer term
continue to be very very bullish. Even
this pullback here guys it's still
within the bigger bullish up move that
we've seen. All right today remember oil
had a big draw down yesterday. Uh so oil
again uh bouncing a little bit today,
but again it continues to trade and I
think we start to trade inside of this
range. Right. I unloaded half my long
position on gold the other day right up
here and again if it goes up here I'll
I'll unload the rest. If it pulls back I
may add back. But either way just
protecting the the investment with
taking some off on that big pop that we
had for two days in a row and a little
bit of a pullback. Longer term I still
think oil's going lower but more so due
to a weak economy. Then look at this
guys. So, remember we were talking about
how I didn't have a second factor to go
long natural gas. Um, even though the
cup and handle was forming, sure enough,
we dumped out yesterday. Little bit of
selling today. I'm actually starting to
like this, believe it or not. As it
comes down, you're getting into a ton of
technical support here down in this
lower range, maybe even double bottom. I
wouldn't call this a full failure yet of
the head of the cup and handle pattern,
but it certainly is something I have to
monitor and I'll keep an eye on it. But
at least it's a lot cheaper. Down 10% in
the last couple days where I start to
say, okay, well, you know, if the
pattern, let's say the pattern can still
hold here and we'll have to see where it
closes today. Now I'm getting at 10%
cheaper now. It might be worth a
riskreward trade through the long side
on that. And then lastly, Bitcoin before
I have to get to my plane, folks. Um,
Bitcoin. Look at this guys. This is See,
I talked about an inverse head and
shoulders. It's not even a real great
older right here. It's just a flatout
potential breakout. Let's see if the
breakout occurs. Either way, great trend
line. Can we get the breakout? If it
does break out, measured move from about
58 to 65. That gives us a $7,000 move
that would take us to $70,000,
maybe even this downs sloping trend line
up here. Uh I I like crypto right now,
guys. I think crypto looks good. I think
there's a lot of bearish sentiment which
needs to be squeezed before it can go
and break to the downside. I've been
monitoring comments on videos I do on
crypto and the bearishness is absolutely
mega times and that's usually telling me
that at least in the short term it's
going to pop up and this looks like a
potential breakout on Bitcoin. All right
guys, I have to get all get off. I got
to catch my plane here this morning uh
back to the US. Thank you guys for
hanging out with me on my vacation here
in the game plan. I'll talk to you soon.
Have a great one. Take care.