My Trading Game Plan | July 14, 2026

My name is Gareth Soloway and I was a
losing trader until I mastered technical
analysis. Logic and charts beat hype and
narratives every time. Now I teach
investors the same techniques that made
me a multi-millionaire. This is my
trading game plan.
Good morning everybody. Welcome to my
trading game plan. My name is Gareth
Soloway, chief market strategist here at
verifiedinvesting.com.
Now listen, today we've seen earthquakes
and positives out there. All right,
ultimately IBM warning this morning that
is a data center play basically saying
that they are going to miss earnings by
a sizable chunk. The data center side
like Microsoft, Oracle are trading down
in response. IBM is down over 20% this
morning sending ripples through that
data center area of the market. Now on
the other side, SKH Highix last night on
the Cosby in South Korea bounced
sharply. So the chip stocks are actually
bouncing higher today. SanDisk, Micron
are gaining in early trading. So there's
a weird divergence going around here.
Now just a side note, we'll get into the
CPI because the CPI was really rockstar
status at least the headline numbers
here. But before we do that, IBM
basically said that customers for their
data center side of the business. They
basically needed to spend more money on
memory chips and other things. So they
cut back on the data center side. So
really weird dynamic here where it seems
like there's only so much money to go
around and customers of IBM are making
decisions on where to spend that money
and right now memory and other chips are
taking the forefront. Now CPI today guys
take a look at this. This is pretty
amazing. We have the CPI data coming in
much better than expected. CPI headline
month over month minus 4.4% 4%. So much
better than the forecast of minus 1.1%
there. Um again that is a big big number
right there. Here we have a CPI
year-over-year print which was expected
or forecasted to be 3.8%
it came in at 3.5%.
So much better as well. Core CPI month
overmonth. So that's minus food and
energy coming in at 0.0.
That is a very solid number, better than
the 2% expected. And year-over-year beat
as well, 2.6% versus the forecast of
2.8%.
So in respon in response, we've seen the
markets rallying higher on this news
even after the IBM warning. And it's
interesting because the IBM warning is
very specific to these data center
plays, but really we had the chip stocks
already up. Then you throw in the CPI
data and the S&P is looking to open
higher today on the day. NASDAQ as well.
So, we'll look at all of this. The last
thing I'll mention before we get into
some charts, folks, is that essentially
the bank stocks reported today, a bunch
of big banks, Goldman, JP Morgan, uh,
Bank of America, Croup, Wells Fargo, a
majority of them are trading a little
bit lower, but aside from Goldman Sachs,
now Goldman Sachs is up. They made so
much money from IPOs like SpaceX that
they had an unbelievable quarter. The
other banks had really good quarters as
well, but the stocks are all at all-time
highs. And so essentially, you're seeing
some profit taking in some of the bank
stocks. We'll look at all of these
charts in just a second, but really
quite a morning here to get underway.
And don't forget, tomorrow we have PPI
data, producer price index, as well as
big tech numbers. Starting tomorrow
morning, ASML will report earnings.
That's the first big chip stock out
there. Wow. Wild stuff. Okay, let's get
to it here, folks, as we get into the
action. Let's take a look at the S&P
futures. Here you have the S&P futures.
Look at that pop on the back of the CPI
data. And by the way, gold is surging
this morning. Silver is surging. Bitcoin
is jumping at least initially. Now, both
or all of those had big down days
yesterday, but are bouncing back today.
We'll look at the 10-year yield in just
one second as well, as well as the
dollar. But essentially, you can see uh
markets were kind of trending neutral.
You know, even the S&P was basically
slightly lower going into that CPI print
and then a big surge to the upside. We
have cut those gains in half essentially
here in the pre-market, but nonetheless
looking to open higher. Now, checking in
on the S&P daily chart, which is super
super important. Yesterday we had a
little down day, but notice we're still
staying above the key support line
around 7325
on the S&P, but also below resistance at
around 7725.
So, right now, we're in this kind of no
man's land or purgatory of the markets
where we're kind of trying to figure
out, are we going to come down here and
hit support or are we going to surge up
to new all-time highs on the S&P and hit
resistance? Now, based on this latest
TPI data, the odds of a Fed rate hike in
September have come down. Now, remember,
the markets going into this print on CPI
were pricing in a rate hike in
September. Now, that number is more
wishy-washy or gray or even unlikely,
which is very, very interesting. Okay.
Yeah, lots going on. Incredible stuff.
Okay. Um, checking in on the US dollar
this morning. the dollar on the back of
this good CPI news. Beautiful drop here.
Now, listen, it's still right in this
zone of resistance. So, it makes sense
that it's having a lot of trouble
breaking to the upside and might even be
setting up to start to come in. But
either way, again, nice down day in the
US dollar today. And of course, when you
see a down day in the US dollar and
interest rates on the 10-year are coming
in as well, that means gold and silver
most likely will be catching a bid and
that's exactly what they're doing. We'll
check in on the metals in just a little
bit of time. But nice drop on the
10-year. The tenure has really surged up
in the last two weeks, going from this
low here, which is now a technical trend
line of support at 4.36%
to yesterday's or overnight's high of
4.64%
now pulling back to 4.56%.
So nice little down tick in interest
rates uh going into the open. And that's
also again, we know that interest rates
coming down is uh investors like that.
So they're buying the S&P partially on
that. And let's be fair, the weak dollar
is actually good. So many companies are
multinational where they sell overseas
that a weaker dollar means that our
goods here in the US are cheaper to sell
overseas. And therefore, when you
convert gains back from let's say other
currencies like the euro or the pound
back into dollars and the dollar has
weakened, that actually helps earnings.
So believe it or not, a weak dollar is
generally these days considered to be
good for corporate profits. Think about
Nvidia selling its chips to, you know,
anywhere else in the world. When they
convert that back, if the dollar has
weakened, they're getting more dollars
than what they actually initially
anticipated. Okay, so that's a rundown
of the US dollar. Now, let's turn our
attention to IBM. Wow, look at this
guys. IBM dropping at from peak to
trough today. 25% draw down on IBM. Now
it is bouncing a little bit here as we
head into the open as the markets have
gained. Um again if we look at this we
can see that again here you have it
right we had a chart that going into
this warning had rallied all the way up.
It collapsed. It's amazing. You see this
trend line right down here right this
level. If we zoom out here on the chart,
look at the pivot low from 2023 in May
to this pivot low in October of 2023.
Perfectly connects through this low in
2026. And lo and behold, look at where
the trend line was right around 218.
Now, if we flip over to the 10-minute
pre-market chart, look at where it went.
Right to 217 and change right there,
folks. Incredible. Absolutely
incredible. What does this mean? I
actually think IBM could bounce a little
bit today off of these lows. You know,
listen,
granted, the warning was not great, but
the reasoning IBM gave was that it that
customers had to shift their buying. So,
it wasn't like essentially it wasn't
like the customer is not going to come
back. the customer just had to spend
that money on memory for instance to buy
memory before the anticipated maybe
further rate uh or or hikes in price. So
it doesn't sound like they won't get the
business. It's just delayed. And I think
I mean if you look at the history on
IBM, how many times has it dropped 25%
in a day? Not very often in the whole
history. And IBM's been around for
decades and decades and decade. I mean
it's one of the oldest companies, right?
So, the fact that it's down this much, I
do think there's a bounce here, maybe
back above 230. It's actually getting
close to that already. I did pick up a
little bit of this in smart money stocks
and ETFs with members when it was around
221. So, I'd love to see a move above
230 on that and capture some gains in
just a short amount of time. All right.
So, again, IBM 218 is going to be that
key level right here. That's going to be
the first major technical support. Um,
again, if it breaks that, you're
probably looking at a move down into
this range around the the 200 level. But
at least in the short term, I think a
bounce here on this is likely. Now, we
turn our attention to SKH Heinix. Now
SKHENX got crushed yesterday. It led the
chip stocks down sharply overnight in
the on the Cosby in South Korea. It
surged. So it opened in the pre-market
sharply higher and has gone higher today
after the CPI report. So that in tune is
helping names like look at look at
Micron. Micron gaining yesterday Micron
closed the day around 926. It's trading
at 988 today in the pre-market. SanDisk
had a nasty day yesterday. big collapse
on SanDisk and it is rallying back after
closing yesterday here around 1650. It's
trading at 1790. I think it was down
about 250 points yesterday, gaining back
about 150 points today. So I mean these
are just the the weirdly enough this is
the volatility in the charts volatility
in this sector. The memory chips are the
most volatile of any sector right now
that's a mega sector. It really is
incredible. All right, next up, let's
take a look at Goldman. I mentioned you
Goldman Sachs is trading up on earnings.
If we take a look here, here's the
rally. And really the key here was that
they just made a boatload of money off I
IPOs, essentially helping companies, you
know, raise capital and go public and
all that other stuff. We know the SpaceX
IPO probably paid them out a ton of
money just alone. Again, that is a big
move there. Uh, not a big move, but
again, if you look at the charts here,
this chart is up. It's not quite at
all-time highs. One thing I'm going to
keep an eye on on this chart, do you
guys, even with today's gap up, it
doesn't negate it. It is kind of a head
and shoulders pattern. Okay, you can see
it right here. Even with the move up,
and you can see it's trading here
pre-market. You know, this could still
be a head and shoulders pattern. So, it
is worth keeping an eye on um just to
see. Now, it's not a pattern that I
would short at this point, but if the
rally on earnings doesn't take out this
high after a few days, I would start
getting more bearish because then the
right shoulder would be even more
complete, then start to look for that
rollover. But today, at least,
initially, Goldman is trading to the
upside. Now, JP Morgan had great
earnings as well, but the problem is the
stock was essentially at all-time highs,
right? And I mean these banks have had
gains like you you'd think these banks
would be the you know tech stocks
they've rallied so much. I mean if you
look at this chart here over the last
couple years just since 2024 in two
years the stock on JPM $136
to a high recently of about $341.
Now look at this. It had a topping tail
which is a bearish reversal signal on
the chart. And with today's earnings,
it's con, you know, basically going into
earnings with that still intact, you
would have been bearish per the chart.
And sure enough, the stock is down. It's
not down a lot, but it is down. And the
topping tail is still fully intact. Bank
of America initially fell. It's trying
to gain a little bit back. We go to the
daily chart here. You can see, and by
the way, I marked off this inverse head
and shoulders, which is pretty
remarkable. But the stock again is
holding up basically around the flat
line to slightly green on the back of
earnings. But this was, by the way, this
was a beautiful inverse head and
shoulders. And look at how it's played
out. This was your break point on this
candle here where it closed above the
neckline. This is called the neckline.
And look at that move to the upside
continuing here on Bank of America. Now,
just a side note, if you wanted to
calculate the target on this, you take
the low of the head, draw a straight
line up to the neckline, and that
becomes your trend line from the break
point of where target would be. And so,
if you're really saying, well, how high
could this go? This could go as high as
64 to $65. That would be the calculated
target. Now, listen, targets don't have
to always hit. That would just be kind
of where if you saw it get there, you'd
say, "Okay, it's run its course. It
might be due for a pullback at this
time. Croup reported earnings, folks.
That stock is down. Watch this key trend
line on Croup. If as of now, it's above
the trend line, but if this trend line
breaks, that's trouble for that stock.
And Wells Fargo. Wells Fargo also
trading down a little bit in the
pre-market stock has always kind of been
the one that's been a little bit, you
know, the black sheep of the group, if
you will. And again, you can see right
here it is down just slightly. All
right, we got to move to gold. Gold
having a great bounce today. Notice
yesterday it came right down to 4,000
again. Uh big sell day yesterday. Today
a big reversal. Now listen, the one
thing I'm going to pay attention to is
do we close above yesterday's high,
which is all the way up around 4120, or
do we close below? If you close below,
and depending on how much below, it
could actually be somewhat of a bearish
sign. Now, you might say, well, how is a
bounce a bearish sign? And the answer
is, well, let's just say we got this
great CPI data and initially we surged
up here. Now we're here. What if we
closed down here? That to me would be a
negative and tell me again that a
breakdown is most likely coming. As long
as we have a strong close in the upper
75% of this entire candle, which would
probably be around 4,100, then I still
think, you know, again, we could still
bounce up to this area here before
meeting resistance. Okay, silver. Silver
getting a bounce after a nasty day
yesterday. it continues to stay below
resistance here. As long as we're below
here, this is a bearish pattern of
consolidation. So, I would continue to
be negative. Oil, again, oil the big
story that I haven't even touched on,
believe it or not, because we had so
many other things to touch on today. Um,
and again, I'm not even done yet, but
getting there. The point here is, folks,
is that ultimately, what do we have? We
have a situation where oil continues to
rally. things in the straight of form
continue to deteriorate again. Fighting
between the US and Iran. You guys knew
when we filled that gap I said we should
go back to 79. We've nowcliped that
target which opens the door to the next
potential target here on the chart up to
84. So keep that on your view right
there. All right. Um so again, watch
that very very closely here guys and
again we'll continue through. Um, I just
want to take a quick moment here to call
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But go check out the Rumble wallet. All
right. Back to the charts we go here
guys. As we jump in, we looked at oil.
Where could oil go? Well, ultimately it
could go as high as gap fill here at 84.
That will be another resistance. And
then my next level that's big is around
87. So, this area would be your next
major resistance. I would consider
shorting oil up in this range. I was
long here. Now, obviously, I'm out of my
long looking for a potential short up in
this range per the technical analysis.
Natural gas. Real quick here, folks. If
we take a look at NAC gas, it's
basically hovering on technical support.
Not doing a whole lot today as again it
hasn't done a whole lot for a long time.
Lastly, Bitcoin guys surging on the CPI
data. Watch for a breakout above 64,000.
A daily close above 64,000 in my humble
opinion sets this free and it's off to
the races. So, that's really where we
sit here, guys. Just again, one more
quick look here. We got the CPI data
out. That's the big story of the day
along with IBM's warning. We also have
the chip stocks bouncing. We're going to
keep an eye on earnings which again
remember ASML tomorrow. Uh then Thursday
morning Taiwan semi Thursday after the
bell, Netflix. It is going to be fun.
This is the trading environment that I
just love. So many opportunities if you
come to us folks. Uh we have the trading
room where I'll be day trading today all
of this action. Again, you could get a
day pass or a week pass or a monthly, of
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And obviously, come check out our other
services and courses at Verified
Investing. Have a great rest of your
day, guys. Thanks for tuning in. I'll
see you soon.