My Trading Game Plan | July 15, 2026

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Transcript

My name is Gareth Soloway and I was a
losing trader until I mastered technical
analysis. Logic and charts beat hype and
narratives every time. Now I teach
investors the same techniques that made
me a multi-millionaire. This is my
trading game plan.
Good morning everybody. My name is
Gareth Soloway, chief market strategist
here at verifiedinvesting.com.
And we're about to dive into some major
economic news, some major earnings news,
and also key updates on the charts.
Where are the charts headed? What are
the technical levels? So, first and
foremost, we just got the PPI data out.
Let's take a look at that right now. PPI
data coming in better than expected. I
guess we shouldn't be surprised at this
because CPI yesterday came in better
than expected as well. PPI
month-over-month minus.3%
versus forecast of plus 3.3%.
Uh PPI year-over-year coming in slightly
better. Forecast was 6.3% came in at
5.5%.
core which is minus food and energy came
in in line with expectations at 2% and
core PPI yearover-year
came in just slightly better at 4.7%
forecast had been 4.9%.
So ultimately folks, inflation according
to the governmental numbers is coming
back in. The S&P futures absolutely kind
of came up and rallied on this data as
we can see right here. The S&P futures
pushing up on the back of the PPI data.
Now listen, we're not up massively.
Yesterday, even in spite of the P the
CPI data, we only saw the S&P gain about
4/10en of a percent. So, it wasn't a big
move whatsoever, but it continues to
kind of keep the ball rolling up the
hill, if you will, and that's what we're
seeing. Now, we are getting earnings
today. Yesterday was the shocker. The
IBM earnings came out, and IBM obviously
dropping 25%,
its biggest one-day drop ever. It even
surpassed the 1987
crash in the stock market. So, I mean,
that's pretty remarkable. Now, I will
say this. IBM warned and they basically
said they were going to miss their
numbers by 5%. So 5%, think about that,
guys. 5% caused a 25%
draw down in the stock. To me, that
tells me there might be an opportunity
for a long trade on IBM. In fact, with
smart money stocks and ETF members, we
did go long yesterday. If you remember,
I did give you the key technical support
level here. And again, we looked at this
basically this 215 to 218 level of
technical support as a potential bounce
level. So sure enough, yesterday we came
down, we bounced up a little bit. Today
we are trading up on IBM. Based on
technical analysis, we should see a
retrace to this pivot low around 240 to
244. So again, that gives you about two
uh 10% upside in the stock, give or take
a little bit. I don't necessarily think
we're going to fill this gap up here
anytime soon, but again, as a
technician, we should see a little bit
of a reflex bounce. I do think it was a
little bit of an overreaction on IBM.
And part of this is, you know, a
warning, right? And what do we mean by
that? Not just a warning because they
warned on earnings, but if these data
center AI plays have, you know, if they
just miss by 5% or warn about missing by
5% on their numbers and see a 25% draw
down, what does that mean? If we see a
small 5% slowdown in the other stocks,
the chip stocks, the memory stocks, the,
you know, these type of names, could
this be a recipe for a massive market
correction when you see this type of
arguably overreaction? But was it an
overreaction in IBM? If again there was
that much fluff in the actual stock
price that we can see that and part of
that, by the way, is leverage, right?
People are so over overleveraged on
these names that the deleveraging event
wipes out and you just basically get
margin called or liquidity flushes. Um,
good example of this is hedge funds are
sitting on their smallest cash pile ever
at 3.6%.
Only 3.6% in general on the balance
sheets of these hedge funds. Everything
else is invested. That again is
historically extremely low which tells
us if something negative happens the
markets are at risk for this
deleveraging event potentially the 1987
crash. Now again I think that's a little
excessive so I don't like going fully
there but nonetheless I think we just
have to be realistic as investors. All
right so IBM keep an eye on that for a
potential bounce today or in the next
couple days. um ES futures today. You
can see this is your reaction on the S&P
futures on the back of PPI. We were
basically chopping sideways overnight
and then you got a nice little bid here.
S&P futures going into the open are up
23 points. That's a third of a percent.
So again, a third of a percent we're
setting up. It continues to keep the S&P
near the highs. If we look at the daily
chart here, the daily chart just
continues to be about equidistant from
the upper resistance line here which is
around 77 and a quarter 7725
and support down here at around 7325.
So again, you know, you're a little bit
higher than halfway but very very close
on either side. Now again, I'm not going
to pretend to know which way we go, but
what I do know from technical analysis
is the more you hammer a former level,
right? So, we knew that, and we could
take this one away for now. Let's just
focus on this trend line, this trend
line from bull market high to the high
here in 2025
uh into early 2026. And then obviously
we broke out. The more we hammer on this
line, if it ever breaks, that's where
you get almost like the liquidity flush,
right? algorithms that the institutions
use, they are priced in to monitor this
level. Now, right now, it's been
defended. All right, defended and
defended. But if it ever breaks, that's
where you get your liquidity flush. My
guess is we would flush almost
immediately down 7,000 on the S&P, which
would another over 300 point down move
on the S&P 500. All right. Now, listen,
as long as we hold this line, then
honestly, the ALOS are going to keep
buying the market and retail will keep
buying the market. And honestly, even if
we drop below, retail will continue to
buy the dip because that's what's been
taught in their ma their minds and
trained them to do. But the algos will
not. This will be the line in the sand
on the downside. All right, so keep an
eye on this level. This is probably the
most important level for the bull market
that we are currently in on the S&P. All
right, couple other things. Yesterday,
we had a big run up in SKH Heinix that
helped markets lift up. I will point out
that number one the stock is down
significantly today in the pre-market.
So if we look at a percentage basis
yesterday it was up over 25% but today
it is down about 8% giving back a chunk
of that. Now, what's interesting to me,
not the SKH Highix move, but was
interesting to me was yesterday, even
when you had SKH Highix rallying, we
only had a 4.9% move up in Micron and
SanDisk, guys, was only up 5%. STX,
which is another memory um play or
storage play, was only up 2%. And so,
you know, if you had told me a week or
two ago that SKH Highix was going to be
up 25% in a day, I would have said 10%
gains in all the memory and storage
names, right? I would have said that
easily 10%. None of them did that. Now,
is that because people are starting to
sniff out issues there or is that
because now there's an alternative
investment where money is now rotating
into SKHix that would have normally gone
into Micron SanDisk and STX, right?
Seagate technology. So these are the
things that we have to start to kind of
think about. The other thing is I was
reading that Deepseek is now coming out
and looking to go public. So that's more
competition on the AI side of things.
And also I was reading in that Apple is
finding a new way to potentially reduce
with technology from AI memory usage by
onethird. So in other words, you could
store more one-third more on memory
because you know essentially the data or
the the technology is growing so
greatly. If that happens, then people
don't need to buy as much memory, right?
These companies and essentially what's
happening is is Apple companies like
Apple are being forced to find ways to
do this to to stretch the memory even
further. And they are finding ways with
technology and AI now. And again, what
this tells me is that whether it's now
or later, there will be a glut even if
it's technology. Like, let's just say no
plans are made, but technology will
advance for far enough to get more out
of the current memory side of things.
So, just a heads up. It's not an
immediate thing, but the price action in
things like Micron, it definitely
continues to be a warning sign. All
right, let's continue on. Other things
I'm watching continue to be the US
dollar yen. The yen continues to be
historically weak against the US dollar.
Notice we're up in this range. We are
creating this ups sloping wedge pattern.
We have our technical support here.
Don't forget that when we talk about
elephants in the room, there was a big
fall on the dollar yen back here in July
into August when there was intervention.
It created a massive unwind in the carry
trade which then basically shook the
stock market. the NASDAQ dropped in two
weeks 15%. I remember it vividly. Uh it
was in 2024 that that happened. And so
again, just noticing that we're up at
those same levels, it does make me kind
of keep a very close eye on the dollar
yen. The dollar today on the back of the
PPI data, we are seeing a little bit of
a pullback in the US dollar. Not a major
one though. So again, I think this is
interesting because really the inflation
data the last two days has been pretty
phenomenal if you believe it. But the
dollar has only come in and given up
what it gained the previous two sessions
last Friday and this Monday. And so
having seen that, that makes me wonder,
does the market is the market sniffing
out that the numbers maybe aren't as
accurate as you would have thought? Same
thing on the 10-year yield. 10-year
yield. Look at this. I mean these great
economic numbers and all that happened
is we dropped from 4.63 down to 4.56.
Even after a great PPI and CPI report,
yields only came in slightly. I did put
this trend line on the chart. I think
it's an interesting one. Notice again
from the highs from October of 2023 when
we were trading around 5%. Kissed it
here in January of 2025. We hit it here
and we kind of kissed it again just the
other day uh yesterday and the day
before. So just an interesting trend
line. But I do think it's interesting
that we're not getting a bigger draw
down in the yield. What does it tell us?
It probably tells us that number one
economic activity remains semi okay in
the US economy. But also it could tell
us that inflation is still going to be
stubbornly in this range. Yeah, sure
it's come in great because oil's come in
and that's even taken price pressures
off the core which is minus food and
energy but it tells us that the market
doesn't believe that inflation is going
back to 2% anytime soon. Therefore rates
are staying high. So just interesting
little aspect there. Uh ASML reported
earnings but look at this guys now their
earnings were really good. So again this
is very very interesting. earnings were
fantastic here um in terms of what ASML
reported but I think what's interesting
here is again look it was up in the
early market and we're now at a point
where ASML is flat this is something
we've got to monitor because even though
ASML came out and made $881 a share um
on revenue of 10.84 84 billion which was
better on both the top and bottom line
than forecasts. We're still seeing
stocks see profit taking in the chip
sector. So let's see where ASML goes,
but it is interesting to see that we are
aware of a pullback to basically break
even on ASML. All right, other stocks
reporting earnings this morning, Black
Rockck coming out with earnings. That
stock is trading up. Black Rockck is
Black Rockck, right? Do we really think
Black Rockck's going to miss earnings?
No way. Not Black Rockck. They basically
are in charge of everything out there.
Um, including, by the way, they manage
over 15 trillion. That's T with a T.
Trillion dollars now. 15 trillion. I
mean, incredible. All right. So, either
way, Black Rockck is up today on the
back of earnings. Um, interestingly
enough, on Black Rockck, there's a trend
line here that potentially speaks to a
breakout right here. Right. So, are we
breaking out? And also I would just
throw out was this an inverse head and
shoulders formation which could then
lead us to even more upside. So keep an
eye where Black Rockck closes. It's
above the neckline right now. But if we
look at the inverse head and shoulders
and do a measured move, what do we where
is the target on Black Rockck? And
essentially it's a lot higher. All
right, if we look at this, we're talking
about $1,275.
Now, you wouldn't expect it to get there
today, but if it breaks out, that would
be over the next few months or wherever
it goes, your upside target on Black
Rockck. So, interesting chart inverse
head and shoulders pattern setup with a
potential breakout there. All right,
other names reporting earnings, we have
Johnson and Johnson, which is falling on
earnings here. I do have a support zone
here, pivot high here, pivot high here,
and then there's a gap fill at around
245 Pierce. So, there is a support level
here. I'm going to be eyeing this only
as a day trade. I'm not confident enough
to step up as a swing trade on this, but
somewhere in this range here, it does
look interesting as a potential setup.
Morgan Stanley reported earnings. The
stock is starting to fall a little bit.
Look at this, guys. Morgan Stanley was
hugging this trend line uh this morning
in the pre-market. If we go back to the
10-minute chart, look, it got up and
pierced this trend line. And now again
we are seeing it come back in these
these financials they generally did well
yesterday but they are all into major
resistance. Uh Goldman Sachs is one of
my lead candidates for a swing short.
Look at this parallel from this low here
to these lows. High pivot and then
kissed it here. We hit this level around
1160 today. This looks very interesting
as a swing short opportunity. Flipping
over to the commodity space. Let's look
at oil. Oil again, guys, achieved my
first target yesterday and even pushed
through it. Today, oil is flattish. The
US and Iran continued to trade military
action back and forth. Um, President
Trump again threatening probably for the
fifth or sixth time to bomb bridges and
infrastructure, um, energy
infrastructure over there, uh, if they
don't come to the table by next week to
negotiate. Um, let's just face it, it's
a mess. But again, you know, as a
trader, I'm just keeping an eye on the
charts. That's all I can do because the
charts are what told me that oil was
going to roll over when it was at $1,
$120 down to the gap fill. And it also
told me to buy oil at the gap fill. I
gave it to you guys. I gave all of those
trades right here in this game plan.
Look at the gap though right here from
that gap. And look at the bounce. People
said, "Nope, it's not going to do it.
It's going even lower." Boom. Right back
to the upside. It's almost like the
charts predict the news. It is pretty
incredible in that way. All right, we go
to natural gas which continues to remain
pretty weak, still hugging this key
technical support. So again, just
monitoring this key level. Will it hold
and bounce or does it break to the
downside? We had that cup and handle and
again it did end up failing that
pattern, that bullish pattern. And it
just shows you everything in technical
analysis is probability based, which
means there's always a percentage chance
that any any sort of pattern doesn't
play out. Cup and handles are usually
about 65% success means 35% of the time
they don't play out. And this was one of
them in that situation. And I warned you
about that. I said, "Guys, I need a
second factor." Because if you get a
second factor, you bump up the
probability of success to about 70 to
75% which then gets in the range of a
trade opportunity. Um, people that take
65% trade setups, that's okay, but just
understand there's a higher failure
rate. I guess that's the essence of it.
Uh, gold today. Let's take a look at
gold. I thought gold was somewhat on the
weaker side yesterday considering it
didn't edit the highs of the day. Today
gold is up fractionally. It's still kind
of limping to me and that does mean to
me I mean think about the good CPI data
and then we saw such a minimal pullback
in the dollar such a minimal draw down
in rates and gold only catching a small
bid. There is still risk we could be
headed down to that $35$3600
level on gold. If we break out above
this trend line, okay, game on to the
upside. But as long as we remain in
here, I'm going to remain cautious on
the precious metals that includes
silver, which is down slightly today.
Got a bounce yesterday, but talk about a
small bounce. Very minimal. Did not even
eclipse the previous day's uh upside
downside move. Lastly, Bitcoin here,
guys. If we take a look at Bitcoin, it
continues to push up. Bitcoin again
guys, I told you inverse head and
shoulders. There was your close above.
There's your breakout potentially
confirming today. Where's the target?
Calculated out. It's really right very
close to this trend line right here,
which goes back high pivot. High pivot.
That should be where we're headed on
Bitcoin. So, Bitcoin continues to look
good to me. Um, and so do the altcoins.
We'll see where it goes. All right,
guys. I've got to get to my trading
room. Thank you so much. Come over to
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