My Trading Game Plan | July 16, 2026

My name is Gareth Soloway and I was a
losing trader until I mastered technical
analysis. Logic and charts beat hype and
narratives every time. Now I teach
investors the same techniques that made
me a multi-millionaire. This is my
trading game plan.
Hey folks, welcome to my trading game
plan. My name is Gareth Soloway, chief
market strategist here at Verified
Investing, and we have a whole plethora
of things to go over today. We have
earnings from Taiwan Semi that is
tanking the semiconductor trade. The
semiconductors are in freef fall. Micron
trading near $850
after just a few weeks ago, topping out
at $1,250.
We're seeing SanDisk, STX, WDC, ARM
Holdings, Marll Technologies. All of
these plays are collapsing to the
downside and there are key buy levels
emerging on a swing trade basis. So,
we're going to cover those in just a
minute. We'll also go over why the
semiconductor trade is falling even
after Taiwan semi beat earnings and beat
revenue numbers. All right, we're going
to go over the nuances there. The S&P
futures are lower this morning. We are
seeing the tech se sector getting hit
again while Apple outperforms Apple
continuing to be the safe haven play.
And what's so interesting about Apple is
Apple really never spent any money on AI
of significance. Now they're being
rewarded for it because again all these
other companies have spent hundreds of
billions of dollars. Apple's just been
sitting back. Now granted, I actually
think Apple is getting to a short level.
We'll go over that chart in just a
minute as well. Let's check in on the
S&P 500 here or the ES futures. You can
see overnight the S&P has come down
pretty sharply here going into the open.
We are getting a small bounce now uh
just ahead of the open in about 25
minutes. But nonetheless, markets are
looking to open lower today on the day.
Now, Taiwan Semi, take a look. The stock
is down about 5% in early trading. And
the kicker here is very simple, guys. So
again, why is Taiwan semi down when they
beat revenue and earnings numbers? Let's
take a look at the charts. All right, so
let's jump in here. We'll bring up the
key metrics from the Taiwan semi trade.
And what we have is they upped number
one, their capex spending. So they're
spending even more money. Uh 56 billion.
They're moving it to 60 to 64 billion.
That's a 39% jump. margin compression.
This is probably the one that I've
warned you guys about the most. I said
guys, everyone's saying this time is
different. It is not different. It is
absolutely not different. When you have
any industry that has margins like the
semiconductors, you are going to see
more entrance into that sector and that
is going to hurt margins and we're
seeing that Taiwan semi guiding down on
margins. This is huge guys. This is
going to happen with the memory stocks
as well. They're going to have to start
seeing their margins compress and that
will take out these massive premiums.
We're already seeing it being pre-priced
in on names like Micron. Number three,
lowquality earnings. All right, they got
an extra two billion in profit which was
accounted for from just a sequential
increase in nonoperating income.
Essentially, there's a Vanguard
International semiconductor stake sale
that they sold and they got that money.
So, that went to their bottom line, but
it really wasn't due to their their
business, right? It was just a one-time
gain. And so, really, their earnings
beating, it wasn't that great of a beat
when you take out this two billion in
pre-tax gains. Okay, next up we have
number four, price to perfection. This
is something we've talked about quite a
bit and just the essence of this guys is
just that when you have a scenario where
stocks go up this much over a period of
time
I I always say you know the company has
to essentially come out and cure cancer
for it to actually continue up and
that's very very unlikely. All right
let's get back to the charts here. So we
have Taiwan semi down that is crushing
names like Micron Micron let's go to the
intraday chart. Look at this drop on
Micron in the pre-market. It got as low
as $851
just a few minutes ago. It's now getting
a bounce back to about $860, but that is
still a far cry from where it closed
yesterday at 9:04. Now, I do have a
support zone pivot high right here. Gap
fill right there. This support zone is
from about $815
down to about 755. That is my support
zone. I may start to look to nibble in
that range just for a technical bounce.
Do I think the downside is over? Not in
the least. But I would expect if we fall
into this level today or tomorrow, we
could get a very sizable 50 to 100 point
bounce on the stock in the coming days.
So watch that level here, this key
support zone. Other names taking a
trouncing. Uh take a look at SanDisk.
Yesterday, Sandis came down, tested this
low pivot from July 7th. It did bounce
into the end of the day. Look at where
it is. It's right back there. The more
you hit a trend line, the more likely it
breaks. So, I would expect this to
potentially break. That means this next
pivot here, this little low pullback
zone, that is your next spot at around
1300 to 1290. So again, that would be
your next support. And at that level,
SanDisk would have dropped. I mean, get
this guys, it would be down over $1,000
from its highs. And again, you know, I
go back to the old adage is, you know,
this isn't my first rodeo. And so, when
I was warning when Sandis was 2,000 plus
dollars and talking about how people
need to be careful, but the response
was, but this time is different.
Unfortunately, it just isn't different.
Human nature, we don't change. Greed and
fear. Greed and fear. Those are the
emotions that drive stocks up and down
or assets up and down. And that doesn't
change. A thousand years ago, there was
still greed and fear. It just is what it
is. And we have to remember that. All
right, guys. So, again, Sandis
collapsing. STX, take a look at this.
And all of these, by the way, broke
major trend lines, too, which was a
dead-on warning sign that these were
going to drop. Um, STX has major gap
fill, right? Coming up at around 7:33.
I'm going to be monitoring that. other
names out there. Take a look at ARM
Holdings here. I'm monitoring ARM
Holdings. There's a day trade level at
around 256 and then a swing trade level.
Look at these pivot highs. One, two, and
then it broke out. This level here at
234 looks very, very attractive. All
right, so listen, we haven't even gone
into the S&P 500 yet because the
semiconductor drop is the story here.
Uh, we did get also, by the way, and
this is I mean there's just so much to
discuss which is fun. It's just I got to
make sure I get it in in this, you know,
g trading game plan. But the key is we
got retail sales this morning. Um the
headline number was in line with
estimates, but that sounds great, right?
But the core number, which takes out
food and energy, it was actually weaker
than expected. What does that tell us?
It tells us that people are struggling.
They have to buy food and energy, right?
Listen, you got to eat and you got to
drive to work. Just got to do it. You
got to cool your home. you got to heat
your home, right? But when you strip out
food and energy, people are struggling
and that is why that retail sales number
came in weaker than expected. All right,
so that is a heads up. Now, PhillyFed
manufacturing, which is the
manufacturing area, that actually came
in better than expected. So, it shows us
that the manufacturing in the US is
starting to pick up a little steam. How
does that influence the Federal Reserve?
Does that influence inflation? We'll
have to watch and see in terms of rate
hikes in the coming quarters, right? Or
in the coming months. And then lastly,
jobless claims came in at around 28,000.
Um that is historically very low still.
We have been stuck in this lower range,
which is good for the economy, right? Um
because again, at least it shows you
that a ton of people are not getting
laid off, right? Even with AI emerging,
we're not seeing a ton of layoffs yet. I
still think it will come, but it's not
here yet. All right, so that was the
economic news of the morning. Um, so
we'll look at that. Let's go to the S&P
500 here and flip over to the daily
chart. Remember on the S&P and we're set
to open lower. We have this downs
sloping trend line here. We have a
general ups sloping trend line here
which essentially mirrors this support.
And the question is which way do we
break? We were up against the upper
range yesterday. But again, today we
will be opening lower on the S&P 500. If
we go to the ES futures uh daily chart
right now down 21 points on the S&P. So
to be fair 21 point drop on the S&P. I
mean that's not even a third of a
percent. So it's not a big drop at this
point. So we have to still see can the
S&P break out. Now I will say that the
S&P has a better chance of breaking out
versus the NASDAQ. Why? Well because the
NASDAQ is getting dragged down by the
semiconductors. Right? So again, when
you see drops on Micron of this
magnitude, a trillion dollar stock or
SpaceX, I mean SpaceX,
SpaceX,
the hype going into the IPO, the fact
that I had friends of friends asking me,
"Oh my goodness, I'm thinking about
dumping everything and putting it all in
SpaceX when it comes public." Those are
alarm bells. Learn from this if you
didn't. It's okay. Listen, I've made
every mistake in the book about 10 times
and I still make mistakes, but we just
need to try to learn better and better.
And when you have hype like that, you
step back, you wait for the dust to
settle. And the dust has settled or it's
in the process of settling on SpaceX.
SpaceX got below and is currently below
135. So, if you waited, right, if you
waited on SpaceX, you could literally
buy it today for less than the insiders
got it for. Think about that. That's
powerful, folks. And you could see right
here, it comes public at 150. Then you
have 3 days of retail insanity and then
look at the collapse since then.
Basically, anyone that bought in those
first three days is down on the trade if
they're still holding. Obviously, if you
were smart enough and sold up here,
great job. That was really your chance.
You had about six days from this point
to get out before it came back in and
now is lower. Do I think SpaceX is going
to go lower? Yeah, I do. And the problem
is is once they report earnings, they
there's going to be a massive share
unlock. Um, and you have people that
have owned a portion of this, but h it
hasn't been public, so they haven't been
able to sell since, you know, 10 years
ago, 15 years ago. And so their entry
price is probably like 50 cents a share.
Does it really matter at 50 cents a
share if it's 135, 140, 150? I don't
think it does to them. They're just
looking to cash out. Now, will you get
bounces? Absolutely. So, there's going
to be swing trade opportunities here,
but we just have to remember ultimately
the share unlocks are going to release
hundreds of millions of shares on the
open market. Remember, this stock is
still a $1.7 trillion. It has a long
downside to go should those sellers,
those insiders continue to dump. All
right, so we've covered Taiwan Semi,
guys. Taiwan semi. If we go to this
chart, you can see it's perking up a
little bit. Look at the chart, though.
High pivot to high pivot to high pivots
right through here. It is coming down.
Where would I be an intrigued buyer as a
swing trade? See this big gap? If we
ever come down here, which eventually I
do think we do, that would be a very
good swing tradable level. Maybe an ad
level right down here. if it continued
lower. So, first entry, second entry,
look for a bounce back up. I don't think
it goes to new all-time highs. I think
the semiconductors, honestly, I have a
feeling that these are cycle tops we
will not revisit for years uh in the
semiconductor trades where something
like a SanDisk and a micron topped out.
Now, people will tell you to blow in the
face, but the current PE of micron is
seven or six or eight or whatever it is.
If you and and this is where the data
analysis is important. If you look at
past cycles on Micron, the high of the
cycle is where the PE is lowest. Meaning
that when everyone has the highest
earnings potential, like all their
earnings, their forward earnings are
going to be the best, that's when it's
priced as high as it is because as soon
as the margins compress, what happens?
Their earnings go down and their PE goes
up. So, it's actually you want to be
very careful with that because it's
cyclical. Now, if it's a stock that's
not cyclical and it continues to grind
up on earnings, that's where the PE
matters the most and it's valuable. But
in cyclical names, it is not. It's
actually inverse. Low PE usually means
cycle top. High PE, believe it or not,
means cycle bottom. Interesting little
tidbit there to think about. And you
guys can listen, everything I say is
verifiable, right? You can do the
research yourself. Go back to the past
major bull market cycles on something
like a micron. And just to show you, you
had a micron bull cycle. If you go back
on the weekly chart, there was a great
bull cycle in 2017 to 2018 right here,
right? Micron was trading at $5, goes up
to 36. That's a massive gain, right? So,
we're talking about incredible upside
from 2000, this was 2012 bull market to
2014. So, that was a 600% move up. And
then that, by the way, PE was lowest
right up here, right in this topping
pattern. And then look, you guys know
I've said 75% downside. Look, dropped
75%
in that move. Incredible. Really
incredible. Um to see those type of
moves. And then you also had another
cycle here. All right. If we look at
this, you had this was this wasn't a
full cycle because this was starting to
get into the AI boom, but you can go
back even further and find past cycles
on Micron. Same exact thing. Uh here's,
by the way, here's the dot cycle right
there where the stock went up and then
it did a full retrace and then some to
the downside. All right. Uh United
Airlines is down slightly on earnings.
Not a big enough move to get me excited
for a day trade. Uh so again I'll keep
an eye on it but again it is down just a
little bit. They took obviously a major
hit in the quarter on the fuel costs.
Those fuel costs have come in a decent
amount so that should be a small
positive but either way the stock had
rallied up significantly um into the
recent release. A little bit of a
pullback into those recent uh GE down
slightly on earnings very choppy pretty
light volume in the pre-market. Again
their earnings were decent but the stock
again is coming in. Notice this bigger
parallel. It is a fantastic parallel.
There was your top. Again, the charts
tell you, I'm telling you, listen,
they're not perfect. Charts are not
perfect. It gives you a general
probability. That's about it. But high
pivot, high pivot, high pivot. Look,
everywhere along this trend line, every
time it pulled back, pulled back, pulled
back, pulled back. So, what do you
think's going to happen here? Do you
think for some reason it's going to
change its stripes, or is it going to
pull back? Well, it's pulling back and
it it's down on earnings today. UNH,
great move on earnings today on United
Health. This stock again is up now. This
is a pretty decent move. Um I don't have
a level on this until this gap window
right here. But if it did get up to
about 482, I might look to day trade
this on a short side. On a swing basis,
it would have to fill this gap up here
for me to even think about a swing
trade. And that is all the way up at
585. So that's a long way away. All
right. So don't forget guys, after the
bell today, we have Netflix earnings.
Netflix has been beaten down. We're
going to find out after the bell. Has it
been beaten down, rightly so, or has it
been overdone? Now, I will say I don't
know. I'm not going to pretend to know
where this is going to go on earnings.
But what I do know is that if it flushes
on earnings, there's a gap fill at 6870.
That would be a buyable level. So 6870,
here's your gap. See that gap right
there in the charts? that is should be
and I say should because look earnings
are crazy right we never know for sure
I've seen things flush through levels
many times over on earnings but that for
me with a high quality name like Netflix
would be a potential buy level earnings
again after market 79 cents a share on
revenue of and let me just get rid of
that dollar sign there revenue of 12.57
billion the whisper number is for a beat
of 5 cents which means that's
essentially priced in they need to do a
little bit better. Um, and obviously
their guidance is going to be very
important. Gold, gold is getting
hammered today, guys. The dollar is
again bouncing. I continue to think gold
is probably going to have one more flush
out. It is doing its best to hold this
lower trend line. It's an amazing trend
line at that. But that is the key level
there on gold. If it breaks this, you're
going to 36 to 3500. Um, that'll be
where I start nibbling on a some longer
term entries. And then look at silver
down pretty sharply down 3%. Dropping
key support level right here. You have
high pivot high pivot at 54. If it
breaks 54, it's going to 50. So again,
54 is your first technical level. Uh
we'll have to see how it does there. Um
again, I will start nibbling below 54
and then keep buying all the way down to
this pivot around 45 to 46 if it comes
in there. And again, just another
example of chasing the hype. If you
bought anywhere in here and you're still
holding, yikes. Got to be aware, guys.
Hype, especially with social media these
days, it just increases the emotional
response. You have to learn how to
control that. Excuse me. All right,
let's look at oil today. Uh oil is
trading here. If we get it up basically
flat on the day, slightly positive as
again things continue to unravel. I
don't really have anything new here to
talk about. I again, I was able to call
this gap fill bounce. It's classic gap
fill action. It did even achieve my
first target. Second target here would
be around 87. I would consider a short
if it gets up there. Natural gas, we
know it was at support. Let's see. It is
so far holding up. It's up slightly. You
can see all these little tails down
here. Again, natural gas is holding
technical support on the charts. And
then, of course, Bitcoin. Real quick
here, guys. Bitcoin is pulling back.
Watch this closely. We're back to the
neckline of the head and shoulders as
again we're seeing the tech stocks sell
off. So, Bitcoin's under a little bit of
pressure. I still like this setup, but
we do need to monitor. I would prefer to
see no close below 64,000. Right now, we
are above 64,000, but that's going to be
something very important to watch. I did
say I would talk about Apple real quick.
Apple is one of my favorite shorts on a
swing trade basis. Major resistance here
at 430. Look at the trend line. This
stock has rallied 20% in three weeks.
That's a trillion dollars of market cap
added. Part of that is money exiting the
semi-rade. So, if the semis hit support
today and they start to bounce, I would
expect Apple to start to come in as the
semis bounce. So, keep an eye on that.
There's a little bit of an inverse
relationship there. All right, I have to
get to my trading room because today is
going to be an amazing day. Don't
forget, we have daily and weekly passes
for the trading room, uh, as well as, of
course, monthlies. Uh so if you're off a
day from work and you want to just jump
in, come join us in the live day trading
room. Uh you have basically three to
four traders on there. We're giving all
of our entries. You see our portfolio
live right on your screen with gains and
losses in real time so you can follow
everything we do. And as always folks,
if you're more of a swing trade person,
more of a buy and hold for a week or
two, look at our swing trade services,
smart money stocks and ETFs, Smart Money
Crypto, and Smart Money Commodities.
Have a great rest of your day, guys.
We'll talk to you soon.