Reading Market Sentiment...

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Transcript

What's up everyone? All right, so in
today's episode I'm going to walk you
through what I was looking at in the
market this morning. As you can see,
it's a no trade day, so I didn't end up
taking any trades and I kind of didn't
think I would. I'm on my laptop here
today.
Um, you know, yesterday
was tricky. In fact, Wednesday you know
what, this whole week has been a little
bit tricky. I had a difficult day on
Monday, was red 26,000, recovered to
being green 36,000 or whatever it was.
Um, Tuesday was up 20 grand, then gave
back six, finished at 13. Wednesday was
up 20 grand, solid. Thursday, no trades
in the big account, small account just a
tiny winner, so not much was moving on
Thursday. And I noticed on Wednesday and
Thursday
that a number of the stocks that popped
up ended up reversing. So yesterday Ruby
was the stock that I traded and I'll go
full screen here and you can see that
this obviously popped up. We had this
sort of big move, but then it gave it
all back, right? It didn't hold up. So
yes, there was news, there was a
catalyst, but it just couldn't sustain
those gains. ERNA from Wednesday, this
one kind of similar, popped up, ended up
reversing. There was a couple others, I
can't remember all the tickers now, but
in any case, having noticed this trend
that they're not holding, um, I was
feeling a little nervous coming into
Friday. End of the week, you know, I and
I thought, let's just go easy. In fact,
let's assume that it will be a no trade
day and let the market really prove that
there's something worth stepping up to
the plate on. So that was my perspective
coming into the day. I saw PSNY warrants
were up quite a bit.
This is a little unusual when you have
warrants that go up big time. Um, the
underlying stock PSNY,
uh, let's see, sorry, PSNY. The actual
underlying stock also popped a little
bit at 4:00 a.m., but then ended up
selling off, Polestar Automotive
Holdings. So it was sort of strange to
see the warrants are still up 288%
um
I I don't know. I don't really know what
to think about that, but at the end of
the day, I don't usually like trading
warrants because they're a derivative of
an underlying asset. And while there are
times where they can become
disconnected, it's very uncommon and
they usually return back to being
connected. So, I'm I'm not going to
trade that. So, then the second leading
gapper as of right now is SLND. It's
only up 62%. Now, 62% by itself is not a
terrible gap um but in the context of,
you know, the the current market, we've
been seeing bigger moves on pretty much
a daily basis. So, this this does feel
like it's not enough. And then we have
S. dot but S. dot is tricky because, you
know, it's up but it's this sort of
weird continuation from from the last
couple days, but sort of like a a
bounce. You know, it's like had this big
move, like a huge move, and then it sold
off, and then it sort of bounced, and
then, you know, it's kind of bounced
here, and I just I feel like trading
that
the price is higher, the spreads are
bigger, the risk is way too high for me.
I just I can't I can't break the ice on
it. I can't get comfortable with it. So,
there's no trades on S. dot. CJMB, it's
a dollar and 22 cents. It's cheaper.
It's been pulling back for all of
pre-market. And then, you know what's
really interesting is um this morning we
had STACK. And when I first pulled up
STACK on the level two, I'll show you
the level two on it. It is very thickly
traded. You can see this big stack of
buyers, big stack of sellers. It's now
down 13% on the day. So, it popped up
yesterday on about 60 million shares of
volume. It goes from $2 to 450 right
here on the 5-minute chart. Then sort of
pulls back, it bounces, pulls back, it
bounces, pulls back, and it squeezes up
to 450 pre-market. And I said, "Clearly,
there's a flat top at 450. Could we get
a cup and handle formation where it
double tops, then consolidates for a
moment, and then breaks away? Maybe. And
we did, but I just felt like it was so
thickly traded, I couldn't get a good
read on it. It I didn't see a catalyst,
and I just said, "You know what? Chinese
stock popping up like this, I'm going to
leave it alone."
So, it goes up to five. I saw some of
you guys said, "Oh, I got my base hit
here on, you know, stack, whatever."
That's great. I'm Look, I'm good good
job, but fine. I just For me, didn't
really feel like there was enough uh
profit potential on it to justify the
risk. So, I didn't take the trade. And
then it ends up rejecting off five and
dropping all the way back down to $3 a
share. What a drop. I mean, that is a
really strong drop. So, then that scared
off everyone, I think. And after that,
and that was that was like 8:45, but I
was like, "That's kind of the nail in
the coffin for today." BIYA, this one,
you know,
up yesterday after hours, but then
pulled back here. So, today just felt
like a bit of a miss. And, you know,
if we look at the overall market, um
I don't usually get super focused on the
overall market. Um
you know, but it it obviously is
something we should be aware of at least
a little bit, and we can see it the
overall market has gapped down quite a
bit overnight and is at the low right
now. So, we don't have
uh a tailwind from the overall market.
In fact, we have the opposite. We have a
headwind. Right? The overall markets are
selling off,
um
you know, so that how how
You might say, "Well, what does that
really matter?" And the truth is, if
there was a small cap company that put
out a great headline today, it would
still go up. It would buck the trend of
the overall market. But, you have to
think about the mentality of other
traders out there. And is the mentality
right now sort of on a spectrum of being
um very greedy and very aggressive or a
little bit more fearful?
And I think because we've seen a couple
of false breakouts this week,
uh we've seen a couple a few stocks that
did like a full round trip that popped
up, didn't hold up, and then came all
the way back down, that the sentiment is
a little bit more fearful. Traders are a
little more nervous to jump in to
something popping up. Short sellers are
a little more aggressive. So, we've sort
of are over on that side.
And then to make matters worse, the
overall market is not helping us, right?
The overall market is gapping down and
and is going lower. Now, I'm not, you
know, concerned in in any serious way
that, oh my gosh, the market's going to
crash or anything like that. But, the
fact remains that the market is uh
pulling back right now. So, you know,
then if you really wanted to dig deeper
and you look at other speculative asset
classes, well, you know, is the market
being, you know, propped up by by
Bitcoin or something like that? Not
really. The price of Bitcoin is pretty
much at its lows for the last 6 months
around 62,000 um you know, per coin. So,
breaking below 50 59,000 was sort of
that critical spot. We broke it, and
then we were back up above it.
So, I think right now there are reasons
why um
traders are going to be a little bit
more cautious, and that's not surprising
to me. So, if we can be really in sync
with what other traders are thinking,
then we can sort of have a better
likelihood of predicting that we're
going to have some decent momentum today
or,
you know what, today might not be a day
to get aggressive. So, right now I'm
feeling like it's not a day to get
aggressive. And so, you know, nothing
popped up that looked good. A couple
things popped up, they didn't follow
through that much. Could I have had some
small base hits? Yeah, I could have, but
is it really worth it? And I felt like
the answer was no. So,
you know, this is my kind of last uh
well, last 30-day look back here. Um
these are smaller green days so far for
July. Uh July hasn't given me any huge
day. Biggest one was 24,000.
So, as I sit on the month of July right
now, we'll see where I'm at.
Um
you know, it might not be anything super
impressive. $111,000
for me is below my average. Now, again,
it's all relative. For another trader,
this is a that would be the best month
of your career. And for another trader,
this would be like, I can't even, you
know, for like some hedge fund, they'd
be like, "We're up only $111,000. We're
supposed to be up like $10 million a
month. This is This is garbage." So, you
know, there's a spectrum. And anyways,
so not to compare yourself to others,
but compare yourself to your own
performance. I'm performing a little
below average. Um nice to see that I
don't have um
you know, any red days here in the big
account. Um I am glad for that. I don't
remember this no trade day. Uh let me
just confirm that I didn't
forget to import trades from a single
day.
Every now and then that'll happen, but
no, it looks like that was a no trade
day. So, I don't know. Um
couple no Well, that was Friday the 3rd.
So, anyways, doesn't matter, but
actually two no trade days in a row in
the big account.
And the small account, trading for
charity,
um you know, I really don't want to take
um risk that's going to um
you know,
jeopardize um you know, the profits that
I've been building there. And so, today
was a day just to kind of, you know
what, say, "Hey, it's a Friday in July.
I'm going to close up shop a little
early. I'll live to trade another day.
I'll be back at it bright and early on
Monday morning." So, I think the best
use of time for most beginners today
would be to study. Go through live
archives if you're in my classes. Um you
know, if you've been watching on the
sidelines, check out the 2-week trial
for 20 bucks. You can the amount of
content you can go through for that $20,
tons of classes, tons of stuff you can
watch. You're going to get your money's
worth. So, if you've got nothing to do
for the rest of the day or the weekend,
you know, or for the next 2 weeks,
spend some time going through that
content and, you know, being in the
community. We'd love to have you. So,
check it out. But, I'll remind you as
always that of course trading is risky
and my results aren't typical. So, the
best way you can manage your risk is by
practicing in the simulator before
putting real money on the line. And
guess what? We have a simulator right
here at Warrior Trading. Go down to the
toolbar to sim and boom, you can
populate the simulator. So, now you can
practice in a safe environment and
you're still using the same scanners,
the same charts, the same newsfeed and
everything else. I'm on my laptop here,
so things are a little the windows are a
little crunched up, but
uh anyways, so check it out and I will
see you guys back at it bright and early
on Monday morning. So, again, take it
slow and remember, my results are not
typical.