Trading The Close | July 21, 2026

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[music]
>> Hello everybody. Welcome to Trading the
Close. My name is Drew Doseki. And guys,
across the board today, the markets were
higher. Everything elevated up on the
charts, particularly the memory plays,
ones that which highlighted last week
that were triggering head and shoulders
patterns. They have nearly all been
negated today, just with a single day of
price action. I'm going to give you some
clues as to why here in just a few
minutes when we check out the SMH chart.
Plus, we've got earnings to go over. We
got earnings this week as we highlighted
yesterday with Tesla reporting earnings,
Google reporting earnings this week. Got
a lot of stuff to come. So, let's jump
into the charts and check out where
price action landed today. All right,
guys. So, first up, S&P 500 with the SPY
on the daily timeframe. We've been
talking about this wedge pattern that's
really been defining the bearish price
action beneath and the bullish price
action above. The last 2 days, we closed
underneath this wedge. And then today,
at the very last day of this wedge
existence, we actually pushed up higher
and closed higher. Very nice move for
the S&P 500 considering we were down
here in the 742 range last night. Now,
we find ourselves closing in on 750. But
guys, I got to point this out, and I'm
going to show you two on the SMH chart.
Look at the volume today, guys. This is
a little teeny volume candle. Now,
before I came on the mic, it was in the
29 million range for volume traded
today. What this tells me is what's
happening on SNDK, on MU, on on WDC, all
of these head and shoulders patterns
that are getting lifted up may not be
because buyers are stepping in with
conviction to push the price higher, it
may just be where price potentially
opened on those stocks that created some
of the extra lifting up in the markets
by people covering shorts, and I'll get
into that here in just a few moments.
Next up, the Qs. The Qs, as you see
here, which is the Nasdaq 100 on the
daily time frame, nice push up today,
regaining again yet this lower level of
support, getting price back into Friday,
June 5th candle. That low area on that
candle is at $704 and 32 cents. Clearly,
we got above and closed above, but we
did test that range earlier today and
bounced right back up. So, very nice
move on the Qs. One day back in doesn't
confirm it, but this was a decent move
to get itself back in this range. Now,
near-term resistance will come on this
gap fill tomorrow, should we continue
momentum moving higher. That close is at
$717.74.
If you notice, if I take this declining
trend line and I'll position it here at
this pivot, connect that over if price
action goes up tomorrow to hit that
trend line, that happens to be right in
the same spot as that gap fill. So,
that's where we should have resistance
tomorrow. Now, into the SMH. Now, this
is where I said I was going to promise
to show you why the markets were likely
doing what they were doing today and
remaining floating up in on the charts.
And it could be because of what we
highlighted not only on these other
charts with WDC, SNDK, and MU, we had a
head and shoulders pattern on the SMH.
Well, today's price action, you can see
we opened above the neckline of that
head and shoulders pattern. Yesterday,
we actually came up very close to the
bottom of it and then sold off, pulling
price back down near where we closed on
Friday. But then today is a different
story since we opened above this
neckline, any of those investors
yesterday that hit the short position
and loaded up on shorting positions
could have exited with this gap up above
the neckline as that would negate the
head and shoulders pattern. Now, this is
just one day up above this neckline. The
key test is tomorrow. Does the SMH sell
off a little bit further down tomorrow
and close back under that neckline? If
so, the head and shoulders pattern is
still intact. Otherwise, we're in
jeopardy of this all being negated. But,
keep in mind, I touched on this with the
spiders. This is all a light volume
push. The volume today on the SMH, 6.92
million. The volume over here the day
before, wasn't that much either, 6.96.
Here was the big volume candle, 22
million, showing that there was levels
of support, which I might remind you
guys. Look at the SMH and what it's
done. We have this really long inclining
parallel channel since the liberation
day lows back in April of 2025.
What did price do when we made a bottom
on Friday? Look at this. We tagged the
top end of this parallel. Guys, this is
what we go through in this show. I talk
about it nearly weekly, if not every
other day, breakout retrace plays and
how you can find great support when
price comes right back to an area on a
chart in which it broke out from. And
you may say, "Well, Drew, that's a
different price." You're exactly right.
That's why it makes it important to keep
these longer-term trend lines on your
charts because they still can interact
and give you probabilities with current
price, even though they may be a year or
2 years later on the chart. Look at how
well that worked. Put in a lot of volume
and then 2 days to back up with very
light volume. Doesn't tell me there's a
lot of conviction. Tells me there's a
lot of buyers down here at 5:41, but the
last 2 days have been somewhat of a
float getting back above that neckline,
creating space away from it, too,
maintaining a potential more upside
float in the near term. We'll see how
well this turns out tomorrow. Mainly be
concerned with that neckline on the SMH.
What made this all more interesting is
on the 10-year yield, was pushing up
nicely today. Look at this, at 4.63%
testing the previous highs over here on
July 14th. One more day of this or even
a push higher, we're going to then
retest where we were at in May of this
year, 4.687. So, we're getting close to
that threshold. I would almost
anticipate seeing some more of that
likely tomorrow. We'll be watching this
high range very closely. That should all
put pressure on the markets, but as we
see with the SMH floating above that
neckline, it just didn't care today.
We'll see if that changes anytime in the
near future.
Today, both gold and silver pushed up
nicely. Gold up 1.84%, but still not
breaking this lower range, very defined
by this low pivot and this horizontal
trendline right here at $4,082. Once and
if we get gold above that, then we can
start talking a little bit more bullish,
but this is still in bearish territory.
A lot of resistance to get through for
gold, too. If it does get through this
first level of resistance at $4,098,
next resistance at 4,149,
followed by 4,178
to regain entry into this inclining
parallel channel. So, a lot of
resistance facing gold in the near term.
The one that's uh not facing a lot of
resistance is silver. Look at silver
here breaking out of this declining
trendline, one that we've been
highlighting on this chart for the last
several weeks now, where silver is at
least in the near term performing a
little bit better than gold for the
upside resistance, uh eliminating right
now with silver. Now, you want to see if
you're bull on silver, you want to see
price close above this dotted line. That
dotted line is at $58.39.
We're about 30 cents away from that. So,
it's really close at 58.66.
You want to see a close above that as
that will increase probabilities for
silver to then go attack this high pivot
that is at $63.27.
If we get through that range, then we
can start opening up more bullish
activity, but notice this is a downward
move, sideways consolidation. Even if
price gets up here to $63 and change, it
still will be contained in a bear flag.
So, we need to get out of that if we're
going to get more near-term bullish on
silver. I was still waiting to pull the
trigger for a little bit more of a dip
on physical silver. I didn't get my
opportunity at least for now. We'll see
in the next couple days and weeks if we
have silver return back down closer to
the $50 range in which I will buy some
physical silver. Next up into oil. Oil
and the 10-year yield both pushing up
likely should be putting pressure on the
markets, but again lighter volume kept
everything afloat. Now this is to be
expected though with oil as the
conflict in the Middle East is
increasing and escalating. So we will
and are continuing to have a squeeze
press higher on the price of oil. Next
resistance 8575 followed by this
declining trend line here at 8834
that's made from this previous pivot top
that we experienced all the way back
here on April 7th. Next up into nat gas
really not much new to report on it.
It's still chopping sideways. It is
bearish consolidation. This was a better
green candle today getting more in line
with the closing ranges of all of these
candles with these mammoth wicks on the
bottom of the chart. All of these wicks
imply buyers are trying to send nat gas
higher. Key threshold to break right
here this horizontal trend line $2.90
for that to happen. Next up Bitcoin
accelerated up on the charts today up
1.73% not quite getting above the
previous pivots that occurred over here
on June 15th. That's the next threshold
for Bitcoin to beat do so, then we can
start talking about Bitcoin pushing up
first to the 70,700
mark and then the 72 to 73,000. There's
a lot of resistance basically up into
the 73,000. 70 to 73 lot of resistance
in that zone.
But first things first got to get above
this first key level above 67,000
and then start pushing. Very nice move
though near-term forward for Bitcoin two
days in a row continuing up on the chart
securing itself better inside this
parallel channel and confirming. That
now makes support on Bitcoin near term
$64,297.
Next up into some stocks, guys. Teradyne
got an analyst upgrade moving the target
and bumping it up all the way up to
$500. Notice when this analyst upgrade
came also. It came after Teradyne had
broken down from an inclining trend
line. You can clearly see here on July
2nd, mammoth red candle pulling price
down tagging this inclining trend line
and then subsequently price has broken,
retested, and then we broke down
further, caught support at 319. Now
we're coming back up to retest. So key
level to watch in the near term is 383
and $0.67. If we start putting in daily
closes above that trend line, that does
increase probabilities for more upside.
But as of right now, this is a breakdown
on the chart retesting the scene of the
crime, which generally should provide
resistance. It did so here on July 9th.
Will it back it up here tomorrow on July
22nd? Keep in mind, we got earnings
coming up on Teradyne next week on July
28th. Into some other news announcements
today, NBIS had a nice backer of an
investor today to the tune of $2 coming
from Nvidia investing into NBIS. That
sent investors
jamming the buy button on NBIS. You can
see here cleanly we had a couple
different levels of resistance. Matter
of fact, three that we barreled through
today. One, the top end of this parallel
channel in which price plunged back down
through. You can see this at 197.09.
Then we had a gap fill here just about
at the $200 level that did have some
volatility right out the gate, but then
we accelerated up, paused on this
declining trend line, and then just
continued to push up higher even after
hours. Now up at $220. Continued push
will find resistance here at 232.09
for the near term. Incredible push on
NBIS. But look at this technical
analysis at play. Beautiful time count
on the move up. This should have yielded
a bigger decline off of this trend line,
but yet it still paused price action for
about an hour before it then continued
moving up on the charts. The beauty of
technical analysis right in play right
there.
Uh next up into a few different stocks,
guys. We've covered these before, so
we're going to touch on these briefly,
but mainly I want you to pay attention
to what's drawn right here on the
screen, this inclining trend line, which
happens to be the neckline of the head
and shoulders pattern now being negated.
Next resistance on WDC up here in the
$620 range at this inclining bottom
portion of the parallel channel. Next up
with MU also negating its head and
shoulders pattern as we had a very
minimal right shoulder. Would have
preferred it to be bigger, but
nonetheless, clean break. Notice where
the low on price action was today,
testing that neckline. This was all over
these charts, which is why I'm telling
you with SMH, it was an awful lot of
just short covering going on because
where price opened, where price held,
and where price continued to push
through the rest of the day. Now, the
next resistance for MU to regain entry
into the inclining parallel is at $1,018
as of tomorrow. Next up, SNDK, guys,
another one. Head and shoulders pattern
with price action closing cleanly above
the neckline right here at 1515.
Currently, this is the uh resistance
level in play at least for today right
around $1,600 with that declining trend
line. Likely though, that declining
trend line can be gapped over tomorrow.
So, next key level of resistance on SNDK
is going to be up here at the 50% area
of this parallel channel at 1792. And on
SNDK, much like what occurred on SMH,
guys, we had a smaller inclining
parallel channel. I'll delete this one
so you can see it. When price action
broke above, look what happened most
recently. Came back down, caught support
right perfectly on the top of this
inclining parallel and have since
bounced up. A lot of these charts are
like that, which is making me not
necessarily go all in on saying that
we've 100% negated these patterns. I
want to see a follow-up move tomorrow
with a confirming close higher than
these candles. That way I don't get
caught on the wrong side of a trade and
then also caught trying to go long and
then get sucked with the rug pull pulled
right back down on the chart. So, be
very delicate around this area in the
coming days. Wait for some sort of
confirmation signal to at least increase
probabilities on the side of the trade
that you prefer.
Uh next up and briefly into Tesla. We
covered this yesterday. Great bounce off
of this inclining trend line. Looks like
all of the selling exhausted itself at
the end of the day yesterday and put
another bounce up. Now, we got earnings
after the bell tomorrow. Key resistance
above at 407. Support down here in the
355 to 354 range if we do start selling
off. And if we close roughly where we're
at today, tomorrow by the end of the
day. Uh next up, some earnings after the
bell today, guys. You can see we've got
Capital One Financial. Not really doing
too much, much like the light volume
today. You can see it's up about a buck
and 78 cents after hours. Not too much
volatility there. Alaska Airlines, you
could see starting to drop here. We are
currently trading right at this level of
support just under it, matter of fact,
at 4368. Next level of support, 4116.
Let's flip into the after hours so we
can see where everything did go. So, we
did breach this first level of support
just briefly here at $43.60. Price is
trying to fight back up and maintain
that support level. We'll see if we can
end up doing so later on this evening
and into tomorrow, but that is the
current level of support. Next one, as
I've highlighted down here at $41.16
if that 4368 does not hold. Next up, uh
Freeport-McMoRan that also reported uh
earnings after the bell. This also not
moving too much down about 35 cents.
Main thing here for FCX, you see this
consolidation where price action closed
today? That's happened now for at least
a couple weeks all the way back to the
end of June. So, this is a key level on
the chart to beat. You can see every
time we've come up here to 62.95, 63
range, we've gotten rejected. If we can
get a daily close up above these pivots,
closer towards 64, that'll open the door
for a push towards 66 06. I like the
repeated attempts right here telling me
price action is trying to get into a
closer up a breakout situation. The
earnings certainly hasn't helped it just
yet down 35 cents. Lastly, got a comment
from Hiyo Silver and yes, you are
exactly right. This on triple M is an
inverse potential head and shoulders
pattern. I do not like the right
shoulder that much. You can see this is
on the monthly pattern, guys. This right
shoulder is much, much smaller than the
left shoulder we see here on the chart.
But a few things to go through with this
chart. This is really interesting what's
happened on the monthly. You can back
out like this too. If you zoom out, the
action on the chart somewhat condenses
and a lot of the action becomes muted so
that you can see the patterns a little
bit better and then really start to
comprehend what's happened, what may
take place in the near future on this
chart. So, let's get back into this
monthly time frame. Notice I've got
a high pivot here from January of 2018,
a declining trendline drawn on that
chart. Notice when price came to break
out after attempting and failing in this
range, came to a breakout, consolidated
for 4 months right here before it
exploded and went higher. What did it do
after there? It retraced the scene of
the crime. It retraced the breakout
perfectly. This low was the liberation
day low in April of 2025 and since price
on 3M has gone up about 30 plus percent.
Clearly the line to beat now for this
inverse head and shoulders pattern to
play out is right there, $174.70.
Start putting in daily closes above that
level and extend and that opens the door
for a possibility of 3M going up to
278.86
as the next major target. There will be
stopping points along the way. The
previous all-time high will take a lot
to get through. Heck, the psychological
number of 200 and 250 will also take a
lot to get to. Um but this is what I see
on the chart that is boiling up and
developing for a potential long play
that would be more of a mid to
longer-term uh swing trade.
All right, guys. Thanks so much for
watching today. Don't forget to like and
subscribe to the video. It really helps
me out. So, I really appreciate you guys
just taking a second and clicking that
jam button for the thumbs up. Uh aside
from that, guys, um interesting markets.
Be monitoring this tomorrow. What
happens with the SMH? Do we confirm with
light volume today in the S&P 500? It's
got me at least holding off on saying
that we're confirmed on all of these
negated patterns for the head and
shoulders. Um very interesting stuff
that's on the line this week with all
the earnings coming up. So, can't wait
to come back tomorrow. Until then, guys,
you have a fantastic night and I'll see
you right here on the charts tomorrow.
Take care, folks.