My Trading Game Plan | July 22, 2026

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My name is Gareth Soloway and I was a
losing trader until I mastered technical
[music] analysis. Logic and charts beat
hypes and narratives every time. Now I
teach investors the same [music]
techniques that made me a
multimillionaire. This is my trading
game plan.
Good morning everybody. Welcome to my
trading game plan. My name is Gareth
Soloway, chief market strategist here
and of course we're going to dive into
all the things chart-wise and
probability-wise for today's session. So
first and foremost, the big news is oil
spiking up in the overnight hitting my
key $87 a barrel level. We're currently
trading just above that. Did I initiate
a short on oil? You better believe it
because I don't follow the hype or the
narratives. I follow the charts. Doesn't
mean I'm going to be right on it, but
that was the level that the markets and
the charts were predicting oil would go
to and this is the level where we should
start to see some resistance. If it goes
a little higher, I have dollar cost
average method to add to that position,
but I'm looking at a pullback off of
this $87-88 The markets
in response are seeing selling pressure
today. So we are seeing the
semiconductor trade which finally held
its gains yesterday starting to come
back in. And again, the semis are
selling. Now if oil pulls back, we
should see the semis regain some of
their strength and push back up. I still
don't think the bounce on the semis is
fully concluded at this point. I think
we have to do about a 50% Fibonacci,
maybe 618 retrace before the exhaustion
of the bounce has concluded. So let's
get into some charts here. We have
earnings to discuss today as well. Not
really much economic data until starting
tomorrow, but nonetheless let's get
right into it. S&P futures, here you
have it. You could see again yesterday
we had a nice move up, kind of chopped
and sideways the rest of the day from
midday on. Overnight the futures kind of
trailed off and started to fall as we
saw again oil pushing up. We also saw
the KOSPI, which is very semiconductor
heavy, rolling over a little bit from
the gap up last night as well. This
morning oil's chopping and you can see
again the futures are chopping inversely
to that oil move. Let me just show you
the chart on crude oil here. Going to
the 10-minute chart, see these kind of
crazy candles right here. How oil popped
up on that last 10-minute candle. If we
go back to the ES futures chart here and
we look, you can see oil
the ES futures dumped right there. So,
you can see that inverse relationship
starting to come back with oil at this
key level. And again, that's going to be
something that you likely will see
bigger players start to take note of,
including the president who will be
noting that now oil has achieved a level
where it is influencing the market on a
tick-for-tick basis. All right. So,
again, just something to keep in mind on
that front. Now, as we move back in,
let's go to the S&P daily chart and see
what we have. We still are stuck in a
generally bullish consolidation pattern
on the S&P. You have again the
longer-term trend line that goes back to
2021. We broke out above that. We then
came in, tested, and held. Tested and
held. And now the question is, this is
again, if you look at this as your flag
pole, then this is consolidation, right?
This is bullish consolidation. Now, if
it's bullish consolidation, let me ask
you this question. Does it guarantee
that we're going to go higher or is it
just probabilities that favors that
side? And the reason I point that out is
because you can't just assume because
there's a bullish pattern that it can't
fail. It just means that more likely
than not it will be bullish and play
out. But again, like if something's 60%
odds, it still means 40% of the time
it's not going to play that. And it's
very important for us as investors and
traders to understand that nothing
investing-wise is an absolute. There's
always risk of a failure, no matter how
good the probabilities look. All right,
so just a little tidbit on that one. So
in terms of the S&P,
we're still kind of hovering in this
range. If we break above this 75-65
level here on the S&P, you likely will
make a run at your highs. And And I even
think we could go as high as 7,800 on
the S&P. If we come down, we'll watch
this support with laser eyes to see if
it holds. If it doesn't hold, that's
really bad. A failed breakout, all
right? In other words, we broke out
here. If it fails without going up, that
would be very negative for the overall
chart levels. All right, let's look at
the 10-year yield. 10-year yields
continue to grind up. Remember, 10-year
yields generally move with oil. And if
we look at oil's recent, or I should say
the 10-year's recent move, notice how
starting around July, we started to see
oil push the 10-year yield pushing up,
right? We were down at 4.36. We're now
at 4.65%.
If we flip over to crude oil on the
daily chart, when did we start to rally
on oil? Exactly the same day as yields
what started to move back up. Do you
guys see that correlation there? So
literally to the day when oil bottomed
and started to move up recently, that is
exactly the day when the 10-year yield
bottomed and began to move up. And it's
simply put, to just explain it in super
layman's terms, is that that has a
direct relationship. Oil is
inflationary. If it goes up, it means
that there's more inflation. Therefore,
it means the Fed must be more hawkish
and therefore it means rates need to
stay higher for longer. It's just that
simple. So, if we did see a pullback on
oil, you would assume rates would come
back in a little bit. But, right now
we're not seeing that. As we see on oil
here, oil is trading up around $87.27.
And again, notice over here, this is
where I get my level. You can see high
pivot or low pivot support, support,
support, and support. We broke down and
now it's a retrace. If you saw this
chart, let's say 100 times,
approximately
70 out of 100 times, we would see a
pullback on oil or on the chart based on
this retrace. So, 70% odds based on my
calculations. Okay? So, that's just
something and by the way, you'll hear a
lot of people saying, "Oh, oil's in fact
probably some people watching this. Oh,
oil's no, oil's going to go higher."
They said the same thing to me when oil
was at $110, $120 and I said, "No, it's
going to go back to 67." Um, it's just
the nature that people generally get
caught up in the hype. They watch, you
know, these Fox News or these CNNs,
right? And remember that these media
outlets are there to create anxiety and
emotion within you so that you tune in
and watch. Because if you don't watch,
they can't sell advertising TV spots.
And if they can't sell those advertising
TV spots, then they go out of business.
It's all a racket, guys. It's all a
racket. You know, again, people that get
into these hardcore one way or the
others, it's all about just making it as
sensationalized and as scary as possible
from both sides of the spectrum so that
you get suckered into watching and then
they get to sell their TV commercial
spots for even more money. It's all a
racket, right? Understand that. By the
way, that goes for CNBC, too. They have
to make things out to be bigger than
they actually might be because then they
get to sell those TV spots as well. And
that's the only reason they're in
business. Let's say let's be honest. If
they weren't making any money for the
company that owns them, they wouldn't be
on air. It's just that simple. I I
digress. I didn't mean to get into that,
but it's just very obvious
um when people's emotions are triggered
that there's a culprit there.
All right. So, let's go through the
dollar. The dollar again trading up uh
or down just fractionally, but still
staying within this zone. Now, if you
look at this chart, what type of pattern
formation is this on the US dollar at
least for now? This would be a little
bit of a bullish consolidation pattern.
So, again, the pattern itself is
slightly bullish, but it still remains
at resistance up here. And so, again, we
talked about this with natural gas
yesterday is when you have a bullish
pattern, but it's in the resistance,
there it's more of a 50/50. Essentially,
a plus one and a minus one, they cancel
each other out. And so, you kind of just
sit back and say, "Okay,
I see both sides, but I need to wait for
the move to tell me. Like, does it break
above that level? Okay, breakout, game
on. Or does it kind of stall here and
and break down? Okay, it's a failed
move. The resistance was the more
powerful signal there." And so, there's
nothing wrong with Again, you can have
In fact, if I look at 100 charts today,
97 of them I will be like, "Eh, no trade
here." And that's that's actually being
good. That's being a disciplined trader.
You got to be aware of that, absolutely.
All right. So, let's continue on. The
dollar yen continues to be on my radar.
It made a new high yesterday, pausing
today. Look at this trend line right
here on the dollar yen. But, this has
been an incredible move of the US dollar
strengthening against the yen. And
again, the question I have is at what
point does this break something in the
overall carry trade and the overall
forex markets? And it's It's something
I'm keeping an eye on. It's one of the
risks that I think no one's talking
about, but I have to take note of it in
my total risk assessment for the overall
market. All right, let's move on to
stocks in motion today. And we'll go to
commodities later. We'll look at old
gold and silver because there are
interesting things going on there as
well. But at least in terms of stocks
today, um we have SMCI gaining
substantially. This is a chip company,
Supermicro Computer. Uh so again, you
know, racks and data center type stuff.
And basically they came out after hours
yesterday and said, "Hey, we got a huge
backlog. Things are great." And the
stock just ripped higher. Now, because
the markets are selling off a little bit
today, we are seeing the stock come in
just a little bit. And also just to keep
in mind, this is one of the
semiconductors out there that's kind of
been beaten up. And the reason it's been
beaten up is a valid reason. Basically,
the CEO, I think, or someone high up was
doing majorly shady things, smuggling
chips over to China um that they weren't
supposed to be getting. Uh they've had,
you know, accusations of basically
fabricating their accounting before. It
seems like they've sorted it out, but
then again, you just never know. Either
way, the stock had good news, so it's
up. But if you look at the daily chart
and you look at where it's been, I mean,
look at where it's been. Way, way higher
in 2024. And so it's really been beaten
down. Now, a lot of people would look at
this and say, "Wow, does this mean it's
a good buy?" Well, maybe, but also
are they doing anything shady, you know,
still? And And you just don't know. Once
a company has accusations and there's
some truth to them, um and again, I'm
not a you know, I didn't do an
investigation. I'm just listening to
what's been said in the major media
outlets about, you know, why the stock's
fallen down. But at the same time, you
just have to take it with a grain of
salt. So yeah, they say their backlog is
$60 billion.
Is it really 60 billion? Right now the
stock's up, but I'm just it's not like
something I'm rushing out to buy based
on this because I just frankly don't
necessarily 100% trust it. All right, so
that's one of the stocks making moves.
Is there a trade here? No, at this
point. I mean if it really surged up
north of 3150, maybe there's a day trade
short, but for me mostly I'll be sitting
on the sidelines. GE Vernova reported
earnings today. Now this is interesting
because this has been one of the hottest
stocks out there. It started to correct
more recently, but I mean for like 2
years it was just an unstoppable bull
run. Well, now they missed earnings
today. They they still did okay on
revenue beating revenue,
but it does appear their costs are
starting to go up thus eating into
profits. In addition, their guidance was
better, but it wasn't robustly better.
And so again, you're starting to see
this
you know, arguably maybe margins
starting to come back in which is a
concern overall. And I think that's what
we're seeing in the stock. We're seeing
that the stock again, you could see it
kind of double topped. Here was your
incre- I mean look at this bull run on
this thing. I mean just incredible
incredible move to the upside. It had a
high pivot. It pulled back. It double
topped. And by the way, does anyone know
what that candle is called right here
because it is a bearish reversal candle.
That's what we call it. If you know,
hopefully some of you guys are saying it
out loud, but that is called a topping
tail. Did it play out? You better
believe it did. And then you got a
bounce and now it's trading down. Now
you can see I've marked off some
technical levels here.
So we do have
um a major dual factor support today at
9:40-ish,
uh gap fill and up sloping trend line.
They're merging right around that 9:40
level. Now would I be swing trading
this? No, but as a day trade I certainly
will be eyeing this very, very closely.
All right, AT&T is up a little bit on
the back of earnings, not enough to get
my attention. It's up about 60 cents. So
again, that's about 3% or so. So it
doesn't get me interested as a day trade
cuz I need major moves overall. And then
if we look at Tesla, the reason I'm
going into these guys is because after
hours today is a plethora, a massive
amount of major earnings. So we have
Tesla, we have Alphabet, we have
ServiceNow, we have IBM, we have Texas
Instruments all after the bell today.
Now, these are interesting. Number one
because if we look at Tesla, Tesla's
right at the bottom of a major support
trend line. So if earnings aren't good
enough, this could start a breakdown in
the chart. Now, it hasn't yet. So you So
for me as a trader, I'm not jumping the
gun. It's not like I'm shorting Tesla
here. That would be stupid because you
don't know if it's going to break down
or is it going to surge up to the upper
end. But essentially as a trader, I need
to be aware that if it breaks down, it
likely signals maybe a retrace and I can
short the retrace. Or the question is
does it come down to technical support
here and maybe I can play it for a long
trade. So watching these kind of things
are super important. A lot of people
don't tune into the earnings until
they're already out. By that point, you
may have missed the move. I've had
numbers or levels on earnings where when
they come out after hours, it tags my
level with a big sell-off and then
before you know it, the stock's green in
the after hours. And so
the preparedness of us as investors is
very, very important. You know, many
people just go, "Ah, well, I'll just
listen to CNBC or Bloomberg and do
whatever." If you're a long-term
investor, I actually think that's an
okay method. If you're someone who likes
to be a little bit more hands-on like me
and believes you can outperform
generally what other bigger players do
like 10% a year, then that's where I
want to be more hands-on. All right. So
Tesla on watch here. We have We're at
the lower end. If it has great earnings,
maybe it surges up to the upper end.
Google today has earnings. I don't
really have a good read on this, to be
honest. It's not at the highs, it's not
at the lows. By the way, what candle
formation is this?
Topping tail. And look at what happened.
I mean, these topping tails, listen,
topping tails have about a 70% success
rate, maybe 65% success rate. But, I
just showed you in these charts in this
video, two GEV and Google/Alphabet that
worked out perfectly. Very, very cool.
All right, in any case, my point is is
that again, maybe we have a little bit
of a bearish pattern here, but it
certainly is not high enough probability
with upside here, and then your downside
support, you have a gap fill here,
another gap fill down here. It just
there's not enough
probability from either of these to get
me involved. I don't have strong enough
signals, which is okay. Like I said
earlier, I'll look at 100 charts, and
there'll be maybe three out of 100 that
I'm like, okay, this is a great level to
trade. Other than that, they're all
passes. Pass, pass, pass, onto the next
one. And that's the discipline that's
going to make you into a great investor
and trader. All right, if you're finding
out that out of 100 charts, you like 90
of them,
something's wrong there.
That is not normal. And that means that
you're kind of fabricating. We have a
tendency as humans to push our
narratives. Like, oh well, I like that
company, or I like that CEO, so I'm
going to just, you know, let's If we
move this a little here, oh look, it's a
it's a great pattern, you know? It's
like, okay, like that's that's that
emotion creeping in again. All right,
let's keep going. ServiceNow. Now, the
reason why ServiceNow is important for
earnings is because this has been one of
the software plays that have been has
been crushed. Can this make a move up?
Now, I will say this, guys, and listen,
I don't know the earnings. This is a
little bit of a bullish consolidation
pattern going into earnings. Now, am I
going to jump in? No, of course not. Too
high risk. But again, this pattern
formation is interesting. In addition,
if it does sell off a little on
earnings, there is a good trend line
down here around 93 as well. So, you got
93 support, but also a little bit of a
bullish consolidation move up here. Some
people would look at this and say, "Is
this also a head and shoulders?" You
could make a case for that, but one of
the things that I've studied is that
head and shoulders that appear near
52-week lows have a much higher failure
rate than ones that are near 52-week
highs. The ones at 52-week highs, very
high probability, low probability at the
lows. So, technically, you could make a
case for that, and it there's always a
small chance it plays out, but it
doesn't have the probabilities there.
IBM, we all know IBM warned, it was
nasty, the stock dropped more than it
had ever dropped before. So, we'll see
what happens there. If it flushes and
pierces 200, I have a very big level on
that right down here. So, see this
former pivot right there at 198, that
will be a level I'm watching if it falls
more on earnings. And Texas Instruments
here, this is really interesting because
TXN has this great trend line. You could
also make a case maybe a little bit of a
head and shoulders here. So, watch this
level, any daily close Well, it's not
going to close below on the daily cuz
these numbers are coming out after
hours. But again, watch this level here
tomorrow. Do we break 280? If we do,
eventually, I think we're going to 236,
which is gap fill. All right. Now, we're
going to move on to commodities, then
we'll look at Bitcoin at the end, guys.
As always again, we cover it all here,
but all from a chart perspective. Okay.
Let's take a look here. So, gold pushing
up again today, look at where it's
going, right back to this trend line.
So, what's important about this is as a
technician, we need to monitor this
level, this 4150. A daily close with
confirmation above that is a breakout.
And if gold breaks out, it's got a lot
of upside to it. And again, it won't be
overnight. It's not like it's going to
go all of a sudden from a breakout here
to like 6,500.
But at the same time, this is a really,
really important level to watch. Today,
we're still under it, but keep this on
your radar. Now, is it possible it just
is going from the downside to the upside
and it could come down? Of course. I
mean, it may stay here inside of this
wedge pattern, but remember, the wedge
pattern comes to a head on August 14th.
So, by August 14th, which is 3 weeks
away basically, this has to have broken
out or broken down. It's one or the
other by that date because the merge of
the two trend lines says so. Silver,
let's take a look at silver. Creeping up
a little bit today. Had a good bounce
yesterday. Silver has a lot more work to
do. It's got to get through 64, then
it's got to get through 66. Only if it
breaks above this one would I start to
say, "Okay, we now have something better
on silver." We already looked at oil,
guys. Oil is coming back in. Look at the
sell-off on oil already just since I
started this broadcast. It's now even
below 87. It's nearing 86. My short is
in the money nicely already. So, again,
great to see that. Uh we'll see where it
goes over the next day or so, but I love
this for a pullback down to about $80 or
even a maybe back to about $78 a barrel.
Natural gas real quick here as I got to
get to my trading room, folks. Uh
natural gas up just fractionally on the
day. Still holding technical support,
but nothing new to update on that. And
then Bitcoin, guys, pulling back today
after that great move yesterday. I still
like Bitcoin, but again, it was due for
a little bit of a pullback. Let's watch
and see. We did tag resistance right
here.
If we look at right there, this is your
next big level, 67,000.
You got a breakout from there. If you
break out from there, 71,000
target. All right, guys. I got to get to
my trading room. Great job today. I love
this game plan. We did a little bit of
human psychology. We did a lot of
charting. We kept it with the data
focus, no BS, which is what Verified
Investing is all about. And we hope
we're making a difference out there.
Listen, not everyone likes us,
obviously, that's okay. But the idea is
we're here to fight for retail, helping
them think more
institutional, where it's data-based.
Because that's what institutions do,
trust me. You don't have an
institutional trader being like, "Oh,
well, I just like Elon Musk, so I'm
going to buy this." Or, you know, that's
not how they work. They've got people
making millions of dollars to make
definitive data-based analysis. And we
want to basically do that for you guys,
as best as we can. So, thank you guys
for tuning in, and I'll see you
tomorrow. Take care.