Trading The Close | July 22, 2026

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>> Hello everybody. Welcome to trading the
close. My name is Drew Dosik and now
today the markets guys, we had the
spiders S&P 500 down. We had the QQQ
NASDAQ 100 down, but then the semis were
up. Of course, that's about typical. Uh
however, usually we're having all three
indices follow each other. So, it's
interesting to watch the semis push up
the way that they are elevating, getting
themselves further away from that head
and shoulders pattern officially
negating that pattern today. But guys,
we've got four big stocks having
earnings after the bell. We got to jump
into some charts. We're going to cover
those two. Plus, we've got some viewer
requests as well. Can't wait to get into
those. So, let's jump into some charts
guys. First off with the S&P 500 on the
SPY ETF on the daily time frame. We
notated yesterday, we got above this
declining trend line and closed. We did
the same thing again today, but we
didn't extend nor confirm this sort of
break on this declining trend line. So,
that's what I'm going to be watching in
the near term. If you notice this bottom
level trend line in essence is still
holding up price. As price really didn't
separate away from that trend line after
hours, S&P 500 pushing up ever so
slightly. The big takeaway on the S&P
500 today is very similar to yesterday.
Now, yesterday we had a positive day.
Today is down 0.12% basically flat.
However, look at the volume of today,
31.66 million. Yesterday 34.32
million. Another light volume
participation day in the markets. Into
the Qs that we go and they were down
just a little bit more, 0.51%.
Still remaining above this key trend
line. That pivot low back from June 5th
that I highlighted. We got above
yesterday, remained above today, didn't
necessarily confirm back in, but still
hanging on above that trend line. Key
level for it to hold instead of breaking
and going lower. Next resistance, should
we push up tomorrow, is going to be at
716 and 58 cents found from this
declining trend line connecting pivot
high from June 30th as well as July
15th, and that's where we're going to
find a stopping point at least for a day
if we push up. Now next up into the SMH,
guys. Now look where we closed today. We
closed at 558 or pardon me, 586 91.
Yesterday's high was 586
flat. So that sort of close put a close
up above yesterday's candle. That does
make this neckline now support tomorrow
at 575
and 87 cents. That confirming close
above, regardless of light volume today,
even lighter than yesterday. Volume
today 4.96 million, yesterday at 7.13
million. Uh and you can see here the day
before about the same, but then this day
had the volume, 22 million. Light days
keeping us afloat and keeping the price
maintained up on the SMH. That does
leave some opening for SMH to really
start pushing. Should it get through
this gap fill that it filled today, we
really can start elevating up. We will
have a test once we get to the highs of
these candles around $608, but the major
resistance is going to be found on this
declining trend line right around $623.
Into uh the SOXX as I did get a viewer
request. This is very much the same
thing as the SMH. Now I know there's
different stocks contained in the SOXX,
but the patterns that are on this chart
are almost identical. As you can see
here, we did have in essence I had a
trend line drawn here, but you can argue
that this was the neckline of the head
and shoulders pattern, and yesterday we
closed above, and today closed above as
well. Now, this is a little bit
different. The high here yesterday,
555.16,
and then the close at 555.52.
So, a little bit closer on the close,
but still it didn't negate uh that head
and shoulders pattern. So, SOX and SMH
basically kind of very similar in
patterns as far as the analysis goes,
which is why I lean heavier in analyzing
the SMH. It's one of the staples of that
I've I've I've analyzed for several
years now. So,
um but basically, whenever I do SO SMH,
you can consider that very similar
analysis for SOXX. Uh next up into the
10-year yield. The 10-year yield, this
is really the another major takeaway
from the day, guys. So, we had the S&P
500 under slight pressure, QQQ NASDAQ
100 under slight pressure, too. That's
to be anticipated with the 10-year
yields pushing up as much as they are.
However, the semis should be coming
down, too, and that's not happening. So,
we have a little disconnect going on in
the markets. Tech, generally, will be
put under some serious pressure with
higher rates as they are, particularly
now with this CapEx spend. There's an
awful lot of money being borrowed to
build out these data centers. Now, some
of these companies, most of which have
very, very deep pockets. So, minor
changes in interest rates won't affect
them as much as smaller companies, but
smaller companies are participating in
this, too. So, all in all, this is kind
of a peculiar day going into big tech
earnings, which is why with the lighter
volume, again, once we get some of these
earnings behind us, then we can let the
dust settle, and then start trading a
little bit more uh normal, I'd say, for
July going into August. Uh next up uh
into gold. Uh gold that you see here had
a fantastic day today, guys. Beautiful
push up, getting through at one point
three levels of resistance. The first
one down here from this low pivot back
in March 23rd, second one, the declining
trend line found from this pivot top
back in March uh of 2026 and then you
can see here today we actually pierced
the bottom range of this parallel
channel. Both of those last two
resistance levels ended up pushing price
right back down. You see price trading
at $4,136
right now. So that trend line not far
away guys, basically 4,150
and then the parallel 4,171.
So within that $20 spread there on gold
you got not a lot of resistance. I would
be surprised to find ourselves up in
that parallel tomorrow more than likely
getting some sort of sideways chop in
the following days to then potentially
break higher. But the key level two,
once it does that, it's got to get above
this one pivot from July 6th. That's
very similar on the chart of silver. You
can see here silver also had a great
day. Yesterday we closed above the 50%
area of this parallel channel. Today
extended that push up higher looking to
close above yesterday's candle. Much
like on gold though, got to get above
this July 6th pivot to get out of the
bearish consolidation. Because if you
look back further, this is a down move
and sideways consolidation. That's all
bearish consolidation. This one candle,
even though it was the highest point, it
didn't close outside of this red candle.
So still that's a bear flag despite the
near-term breakout scenario that's
occurring here on silver. So next
resistance at that pivot top $63 and
$0.20. Next up another big mover on the
day which did put pressure on the
markets maintaining them staying in red
for the most part aside from the semis
that we highlighted on was US oil. Now
US oil accelerated early in the day
pushed up as high as $88.61.
You can see that on the hourly time
frame how we ran straight into that
declining trend line, got rejected and
then where did we find support? On the
resistance entering today, $85.75.
So that's showing that this level of
resistance flipped into support once
price got over top of it. So, we'll see
how long that holds because we didn't
put any confirming move above this
resistance, but it needless
needless to say it does show that this
level has a major level of significance
for price action at 8575. Get under that
and we're headed down lower to this next
support of 8133.
But, this is a key level, guys. Now,
with escalation increasing in the Middle
East, I don't see any reason why oil
won't continue moving higher. Now, with
this declining trend line, this is the
third hit of this declining trend line.
So, in the near term, we likely are
going to consolidate on this trend line
and then move higher up to the next
resistance at 9644. Notice the
separation for the next resistance
level. It could be quite a ways before
we start hitting the brakes once and if
we get above this declining trend line.
Uh next up into Nat Gas. Beautiful day
so far on Nat Gas. Notice here this
whole horizontal trend line I've been
focusing on from uh Wednesday, April
8th. Price action is above it now. That
level is at $2.90.68.
If we put in a daily close above that
trend line, that'll be the first time
that's been done since back here in July
13th. We closed above on July 10th.
Since then have not done so. You can see
clearly we've been closing every one of
the days under that line. Meanwhile,
getting these wicks showing that buying
pressure was emerging and price was
getting defended down here at the bottom
of the chart. So, if price puts in a
close above $2.90.68,
that increases probabilities for a move
up to attack the $3 mark, then to attack
the $3.10 mark. But, most importantly,
you want to get above this inverse head
and shoulders pattern on the chart
designated by this declining neckline,
which is at roughly $3.30.
If we get above that, we've got a lot of
upside to go on natural gas. Yes,
there'll be pitstops and breaks and
pauses along the way, but that's the key
level I'm watching to see if and when
that gas really starts ripping up on the
charts. Uh next up into Bitcoin, guys,
had a little bit of a day off, down
almost 1%. Mainly the last 2 days
regained entry into this parallel
channel defined by this yellow inclining
trend line and it confirmed within. So,
that tells me near term support will be
found on this uh parallel $65,898.
Near term also positive level to beat,
this pivot high, much like the gold and
the silver charts. We were all
embarrassed consolidation. Now, we got
to fight to get out of that range. High
at $67,264.
That doesn't take me off of my overall
leaning on Bitcoin, which is bearish,
but it is doing a remarkable job trying
to regain that parallel channel after
having broken down from that spot. So,
this could be the start of a near term
bounce on Bitcoin with still this head
and shoulder target pending at $37,508.
Next up into some stocks today with some
news, guys. SMCI came out and announced
their margin outlook is rosy. In
addition, they also announced that they
had over $60 billion
in Q4 orders,
uh making a record backlog number. This
really sent investors to jam that buy
button on SMCI. As we see here, SMCI
finished up nearly 20% today, up 19.84%.
Massive move, but consider this, this
stock has been down in the gutter. Look
at this massive drop that's occurred on
SMCI, coming all the way down, finding
support down here at the bottom of the
parallel that I've got created since
back here in July of 2025. Little did we
know that news was going to be announced
today, but this area was the area
highlighting us with TA. If you wanted
to be a buyer, buy on the bottom of
these parallels. You want to be a
seller, sell on the top of those
parallels. It's as simple as that. We
move ahead of the news because then the
news was announced today and look at
that rip. Now, price action got jammed
up by this inclining trend line that
found support before. This is allowed me
to draw this trend line. This one little
pivot that occurred here. Notice when
price came back to it again, it paused
for at least a couple days, even
retraced it once it broke down. That
told me this level was going to be
significant moving up. Now, it wasn't
always that way cuz we see on the
10-minute chart, price action went
above, retested, and then decided it
wanted to do a breakout, retrace, bounce
play before selling pressure emerged at
12:20 in the afternoon pulling price
right back down under that inclining
trend line. So, where can SMCI go in the
near future? Got to beat this inclining
trend line basically right where it
closed tomorrow at 3107. If and when
that accomplishes, uh we will then be
attacking the 50% area of this parallel
channel at $34.
Now, a recipient of some of this uh um
tailwind
was Dell. Now, Dell and SMCI are rivals
in the AI sector uh data center space.
However, with this good news on margins,
this really increased buying
opportunities in Dell, too. You see Dell
pushing up 9.32%
very nice push on Dell, but notice we
have a weekly topping tail that we've
been fighting against ever since back
here in June. Now, flip over to weekly
time frame so you can see that weekly
candle I I highlighted right here. Since
this weekly uh
uh candle printed, we did have Dell fall
down pretty significantly from the top
to the bottom over 20%, but it quickly
recovered forming a very clean bull flag
up at the top of the chart. So, the area
to watch if this bull flag breaks is at
the top end, $469.47. Putting
in a daily close above that, and that
will release this uh this coiled up
momentum to start pushing up higher on
the charts. Incredible move on Dell
today as I was anticipating just the
last couple days we were retesting the
low range of this consolidation. I'm
seeing that we might eventually
potentially break this area, come back
down, retest the top of the parallel
channel as that has not yet been done
since price has broken out. Today's
price action definitely threw me a
curveball, but it did not get above the
topping tail high. So, it's still
battling, got this big red candle to get
through, and then the weekly topping
tail high. It's got a good resistance
ahead of itself, but still del
nonetheless. It's got a nice weekly bull
flag forming on that chart. Uh next up
into Newmont a Newmont Mining that does
report earnings tomorrow after the bell.
Now, with gold falling most recently,
Newmont's also fell down as well. Now,
today gold popping up, Newmont following
suit. But, what I mean I want to bring
your attention to on this chart is this
parallel because we've had a nice
breakout, attempted to retrace, didn't
actually get to the top, but then
finally came back down and retested the
top of that parallel channel. This was a
fantastic breakout that occurred for
Newmont earlier this year. Now, it's
retesting it. This could be an
aggressive level to buy for potential
retest of this declining trend line that
is found roughly around $102.79.
Be mindful though, if we do continue to
breach the top of that parallel, we're
not just going to come down to this low.
We likely are going lower with the next
support 85-87. So, if you might if you
frame that with maybe a little bit of a
entry here, anticipate price to go down
to 85-87 and at that point that we
eventually will retest the top of that
parallel channel, in which case you'd be
in the money and can take some profits
at that point or trim and wait for
another dip, add more, and then wait for
another breakout. So, we've got some
really interesting price action going
here on Newmont. Now, I do anticipate
gold to come down lower, but right now
we're starting to get a pop even with
the the yields popping as well. So, this
may be a a
that gold, a lot of inflow in gold for
investments is starting to take place.
Uh next up into Reddit. Now, Reddit,
what I think is unique about this, we
did have a down day today, pretty
sharply down 8.32%,
but if I flip it over to the weekly time
frame, you can really see what I want to
drive home a little bit clearer. We've
got an an amazing downward move bear
flag that's been going on now the last 3
weeks we attempted to get out of that
bearish consolidation, but have found
ourselves this week right back inside of
it. So, for Reddit, you need to be
mindful of the bottom range and the top
range of this bear flag. Top range next
week 195.05, bottom range 161.76.
If and when we close under the low
range, that will kickstart selling for
us to retest the bottom of this parallel
channel at 142. Then that becomes
another major level of contention where
we could see a bounce, but notice we've
already hit this three times. The fourth
hit would be a 50-50 shot on going
lower, in which case then the bottom,
the near-term lows would then be the
destination. So, we're in a really
interesting spot here on Reddit. Notice
too, on the daily time frame,
I've got a massive M pattern here, all
right? Normally when price makes this M
pattern, any attempts to go up to that M
get rejected. Now, with Reddit's
situation, we've attempted this once,
twice, three times getting further
within the M, all of which were implying
to me, all right, we're got we're about
to start breaking up through that M
testing the 50% area, the parallel, all
to see the previous last five trading
days send us straight back down into
consolidation. So, this was near-term a
failed breakout attempt on Reddit
putting us back into bear flag ter-
territory, which is why I highlighted
the fact to be mindful on the bottom
range of this level of of the bear flag
to so that you can be anticipating
further downside on Reddit when and if
that does come.
Next up, we do have Take-Two
Interactive. Now, Take-Two Interactive
was a viewer request from Michael
Marchesi. So, thank you Michael for
that. This is a stock that I've been
following pretty closely. I picked up
call contracts on this several weeks
ago. Already banked those call
contracts, picked them up again, banked
some more, and then now all of a sudden
Take-Two is failing on an inverse head
and shoulders pattern. So, let's get
into that. You can see I've got an
inverse head and shoulders pattern drawn
back here from October of 25. We broke
out of this here in June. At the very
end of June, had a beautiful confirming
move, and then look what happened this
last week. We've been jockeying all
around the neckline, and now have found
ourselves negating that inverse head and
shoulders pattern. It's a shame because
it did carry a measured move up here to
$308.50.
Instead, right now, I'm monitoring this
level of support, 219.08.
Can it hold here and then re-attack that
neckline? We won't carry the same
measured move as that pattern has now
been negated, but that still will be
upward momentum possibilities for
Take-Two if and when it can hold this
level here just sub $220. All right,
guys, let's get into some earnings. Now,
we see here Tesla dropping down after
earnings, trading at $365
right now. If we flip it over to the
10-minute chart, got as low as $360.50.
We didn't quite get down to this
declining trend line. More selling
pressure emerges tomorrow, be
anticipating some support right here on
this declining trend line, $354.08.
Notice the gap fill was very close to
that level, too, right at 352.50.
Next up into Google, also declining off
of earnings. Next level of support will
be down here at 336.28. Let's see where
it went after hours. It went and
actually pierced that level, 336.28.
Look at that. Pierced it and rapidly
recovered. That's the current level of
support near term on Google. Now, with
any levels of support, the more and more
frequently we hit it, the less likely it
will hold price up. Next up, IBM. Now,
this we could have almost guessed on,
right guys? We already had a forewarning
from IBM. Look at the nasty decline that
IBM's had, the largest that it's had in
its history. Almost thinking like they
were going to shut the doors. But guys,
it's already fallen too much after
earnings as you see here with earnings
report, we're actually moving up, now
trading at 210 33, closing at 205 and uh
change. You can see here though, it
wasn't all up rainbows and roses. We
actually did decline immediately all the
way down here to $199.77.
So, we did breach 200 bucks. The support
level of 20150 has definitely done its
job propelling price back up to 210. So,
as a bull on IBM, you want to see price
get back above this declining trend line
and close tomorrow. That level is going
to be around $211.
Lastly, guys, into Texas Instruments.
Look at this decline after hours as
well, closing at 294, now trading at
$281.
So, let's look at the 10-minute short.
Man, we did flush out too, down to $269
So, 269
on the chart, well past this first level
of support and breaches this level of
consolidation. You can see this clearer
on the weekly time frame, much like
what's going on on the Dell chart. Big
move up, we've had a lot of jockeying
back and forth, but all in all staying
tight up here at the top of the parallel
in bullish consolidation range. If they
fail that range, really putting in a
daily close under this $277
level, clearly with earnings, we came
down and tested that 270, rocketed right
back up. So, for tomorrow, as long as
price stays up here, near-term near-term
support to watch for potential bull flag
break is at $277.42,
next support 259 and $0.94. Wow, guys, a
lot of stuff to win over there today. I
know I had a lot of good information I
wanted to deliver to you guys. Even
though we have a lighter volume week, we
still got a lot of action and activity
to report on. Tomorrow, the activity
doesn't stop, guys. We've got Intel
reporting. As I said, we got Newmont
mining also reporting. So, be
anticipating another great day of
volatility. Hopefully, we get some more
volume to back it up. Thank you again
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