My Trading Game Plan | July 23, 2026

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My name is Gareth Soloway and I was a
losing trader until I mastered [music]
technical analysis. Logic and charts
beat hype and narratives every time. Now
I teach investors the same [music]
techniques that made me a
multi-millionaire. This is my trading
game plan.
Good morning everybody. Welcome to my
trading game plan. My name is Gareth
Soloway, chief market strategist here at
verifiedinvesting.com.
Now we have a lot to cover today. Oil
surging through the $90 a barrel level
as again things continue to escalate in
the Middle East. That's putting pressure
on the markets. We're seeing the dollar
surging up, yields breaking above 4.7%
and the dollar-yen continuing to rip
higher. The risks are mounting and I'm
not even touching yet on the earnings
picture which are seeing Tesla fall
sharply as well as Google in the
pre-market. So it sets up to be a
potential nasty day. The one possible
reprieve would be if oil starts to come
in. You'll see the markets get an
immediate bounce. And what's interesting
about this is that if you looked at the
overnight data on the markets, the
markets were pretty neutral until oil
broke above $90 a barrel. Once that
happened, the futures rolled over
sharply and that's where most of the
stocks have rolled over minus Tesla and
Google which were already down. But
those two were not overly affecting the
markets before oil pushed up. So we're
going to cover all of this. Let's get
right into the charts as always. The
S&P, you could see right here. So
overnight, yeah, you were down a little
bit on the futures, right? This is the
S&P 10-minute chart. So we're looking at
the overnight data and how the markets
were trading, but it was really right
here at around 6:00 in the morning a.m.
Eastern time when we started to see the
rollover. That rollover was partially
again or mostly oil pushing up, but it
was also jobless claims. So, jobless
claims are usually not a big deal, but
the jobless claims in the last week,
which were reported today, came in at
187,000.
That is the lowest number we have seen
in pretty much years, and it tells us
that the labor market is relatively
healthy. What does that mean when you
combine it with a moving up oil price?
It means odds of a rate hike are back on
the table, potentially next week, but
more than likely in September. So,
again, this is all what we're seeing
here. This is why the 10-year yield is
soaring. This is why the dollar is
soaring. Gold and silver are getting
pounded today after a bounce the last
couple days. Let's get back to the
chart. So, S&P futures are rolling over
sharply. We're down about 1% on the S&P.
That is again a culprit of this chart.
This was my resistance level on oil. We
have now pushed through it. So, where's
the next likely level where oil is going
to go? To do this, what I'm going to do
is I'm going to use my Fibonacci retrace
tool. We're going to take that high
pivot. We draw it down to this low right
down here, and we drag it across so our
lines extend, and it's telling me that
the next big resistance is around 9340
on WTI. So, again, 9340, we could even
hit that today. That would be a 50%
retrace from the highs up here going
back to March when we had that spike up
to $120
on WTI to the lows recently, which were
at that major gap fill right down here.
So, that is your next level. That's the
one I'm looking for. I did short oil
yesterday when it got up to about 87 to
$88 a barrel. Again, a starter position.
And really what I'm looking to do is now
add to oil as it creeps up overall at
these next key levels. Just slowly
building that core position. A lot of
people will emotionally say, "Oh, but
things could just get out of hand." They
said the same things when we were above
100 back then. And one thing I know is
that you still have the midterms looming
and the president is not going to let
oil get dramatically higher. Could it
test $100? Maybe. Maybe. But again,
that's why just play that play the
retrace from the fall. At least that's
what I'm doing. And as always, folks,
full transparency. I'll tell you how I
do. You guys got my entry yesterday.
We'll talk about it as it trades and
we'll see what happens with that. All
right. So, oil again potentially moving
up to about 93 and change based on a fib
retrace. That would be the next level to
watch. Look at what the dollar is doing
today. The dollar is screaming higher
today. Big push up. The big level coming
into focus is right around 101.80 or so
on the DXY. That will be a big test of
resistance. Notice we had a high pivot
here, which was also the lows right
here. And if we go back right in here,
there was also high pivots. And we
tagged it right here as well. Can we
finally break out on the dollar? That
would be remarkable. Now, look at this.
The 10-year yield is soaring now above
4.7%.
This takes out the previous high from
early or mid-May, which was just below
4.7%.
And again, why is why are yields going
up?
The data, the economic data is
relatively good and strong. And we're
seeing oil going up. Oil going up means
inflation expectations go up because
obviously higher oil gets passed through
the supply chain. But it also means that
in general, if inflation is going up,
the Fed is more likely to hike rates to
compensate or tamp that down, all right?
So again, keep that on your radar as the
10-year yield continues to move. Another
big concern as a risk is this chart.
Look at this chart of the dollar yen.
The dollar yen is now pushing up making
new highs here. If we go to our bigger
time frame, guys, you are literally at
levels on the dollar yen you have not
seen since basically 1986.
That is incredible. 1986 you got to go
back to the last time the dollar yen was
at this level. And again, the dollar yen
is at the highs of the day, new
literally 40-year highs here on this.
And again, most people don't understand
the implications of this, but it has a
lot to do with the money flow between
Japan and the US, the carry trade, and
ultimately we've seen historically that
at these levels intervention is very
likely. An intervention can shock the
markets like in August of 2024
when it caused a 15% drawdown in the
Nasdaq in a matter of two weeks. Two
weeks, guys, 15% downside. Now, again,
there's no guarantees it happens. We
don't know that, but as a strategist, my
job is to look at all angles of the
market and figure out what the risks are
here. And this is definitely one to keep
an eye on. Now, even with all of that,
we haven't even touched on the earnings
picture just yet. Before we do that,
let's go to the S&P daily chart. The S&P
daily chart will be opening lower today
down about 1%. Again, all I'm watching
is this trend line and this trend line.
Which way do we break out of this wedge
we discussed yesterday how this is
technically bullish consolidation, so
you're favoring would be a a slight
favoring to the upside of a breakout,
but But it does fail, that's where all h
e l l breaks loose. That's where things
get very crazy, okay? So again, keep it
on your radar. Tesla is getting crushed
today. Now remember, yesterday we talked
about a wedge pattern that the the chart
of Tesla was sitting just on top of. Now
Tesla missed earnings and their cap
backs is going up. They are now a net
negative cash flow company. Google, same
thing. These companies that were
literally printing money. They were
making so much money are now all cash
flow negative. That again, there has to
be a valuation reduction based on that.
Because we don't know if these
investments, the $200
that these companies are spending, are
they going to pay off? Are they going to
pay off for that type of investment? We
don't know. And so they have to be
discounted accordingly.
Now, if we go back to the Tesla chart, I
got to show you this because this is
fascinating. So, one of the things we
were watching was a major trend line
right here, right? And we saw that going
into earnings, we were right on that
line. Well, guess what? I don't think
there's any question that we've broken
that trend line on a gap down today. Now
as a day trade, is this level around 337
good for a day trade? Yeah, I'm going to
be eyeing that. We're not far away,
we're about $6 away. So as a technical
day trader, I'll be eyeing that. But
what about as a swing trade? If this
breakdown, which it looks like has
occurred, how much lower is Tesla going
before it becomes a swing trade? I want
to show you this cuz it's pretty darn
cool. So what I want you to do now is
let's use a parallel channel.
And what we can do here is we take a
trend line and we drag it down here. Now
you might say, "Okay, well that's a
trend line, right? Right? Okay, yeah,
you're right. It is a trend line." But
then bring a parallel up and look at
this. This is where the awesomeness
starts to come in and I'm going to
change this to yellow here just so it
pops out. So, you have the parallel in
orange, you have this trend line in
yellow. We've broken the yellow. What do
you guys think this means? All right,
well we know that price since it got in
here has gone up, touched the bottom,
rallied up, touched the high, touched
the bottom, touched the high, high,
high. Where do we think this is going
now as a as a level for a swing trade?
And the answer would be very simple.
Down here, the lower range of the
technical trend line. If we bring that
out, basically that brings it out to
about the 290 level right down here. So,
that's where I'm going to be looking.
But isn't that amazing how just putting
literally a trend line here tells us it
broke, right? Cuz you could see the
trend line pivot low, it held here, it
was also the low end of the parallel,
and it touched here and now it's broken.
So, the odds favor a move down to there
and look at the parallel. High pivot,
high pivots, high pivots right in here,
right? And then we had this high go to
this gap up low to here and to here, and
look at that. That's your target on a
swing trade basis. That's really cool,
guys. I love it when the charts just
make so much sense. And again, just
because they make sense doesn't mean it
has to go there. Remember, everything we
do is probability-based here at Verified
Investing. It's what are the charts
telling us the higher likelihood
scenario is, and right now with this
breakdown on Tesla, it's saying 290 is
likely within a month or so, and then
that will be a bounce level where I
likely will buy it. And that's that's
nice to be able to have make sense out
of chaos. Uh Google,
Alphabet, big drop here as well, guys.
Again, their earnings were honestly
fantastic, but cash flow negative,
and also the CapEx spending is going up.
Not only are they raising it to about
200 billion this year, but they said it
was likely to go substantially higher
next year. I mean, this is nuts, guys.
The amount of money that these companies
combined are spending on a yearly basis
is well over a trillion dollars. Now, to
put that in perspective, you go to COVID
and the government was basically
spending there about. So, I mean, we're
getting the types of stimulus, maybe the
government was doing a little bit more
then, but the point is the amount of
stimulus that the AI capex spend is is
generating is incredible. Now, it's on a
specific zone of the economy, but it is
still an incredible amount, and you have
to wonder
is the payoff going to truly be there?
Is it? We don't know.
But, it is a risk. These companies are
really laying it on the line, and they
must be either pressured by the fear
that they're going to be left behind, or
they know something that that for
certain that I don't, which is very,
very possible, that the payoff will be
great. But, either way, the stocks are
getting hammered. All right, Google.
Where's the level? Here it is, guys.
This is the day tradeable level down
here, just below 320. You have pivot
high, gap fill, and then the ascending
trend line. That's a good level. Would I
swing trade this level? It is actually
intriguing for a swing trade as well,
but I'm not ready to commit, but I do
think it's important to note that
Alphabet is now down at these levels
over 20% from its recent highs, just
going back to basically May. So, that is
a big fall here, guys. All right, Texas
Instruments down on earnings. That's a
chip player. The chip stocks actually
were generally trending up this morning
until the futures rolled over. So, even
in spite of Texas Instruments, we were
seeing some money flow going into those,
probably because the capex spending is
going up. So, what are people going to
spend it on? Chips, memory chips, things
like that. But again, Texas Instruments
down a little bit. If we look at the
chart here, I don't have a day trading
level, but one of the things I'm going
to watch very closely is this trend line
right here. It looks like we might break
this today. We are below it in the
premarket, but we got to watch and see
where that goes. Uh, ServiceNow had been
pounded going into earnings, so that's a
software player. It is bouncing a little
bit today on the daily. There's It's not
a big enough bounce to get me excited.
This would honestly have to trade back
to gap fill at 11130-ish to 40-ish to
get a short off as a day trade. And as a
swing trade, I don't have confidence
enough in the factors. IBM is under
pressure here today. It's only down a
little bit. Uh, remember they warned
about a week ago, but the stock is
coming down. I do have a big level on
IBM around the 195 to 197 level. Right
here. Look at these pivot highs going
back to 2024. This does look very
interesting on IBM. This morning
American Airlines reported earnings. The
stock is down. I think part of American
Airlines being down is the earnings, but
also it's oil, right? So, if you look at
almost any of these airline stocks,
they're under pressure because oil is
soaring. So, that's that big cost factor
that is driving it up. So, we'll see
where that goes on that. Uh, RTX good
and getting a good bounce. RTX is
Raytheon. Uh, Lockheed Martin is up as
well on earnings. Let's be frank. Is
anyone somewhat even surprised that both
these stocks are gaining today? Think
about the military action in Iran, and
think about the government spending on
military. And these both these companies
are right there. So, I've heard we were
depleted on missiles, we're depleted, we
got to get drones going because that's
cheaper. But again, all of these players
here, they are right there. And so
again, I'm not surprised they're trading
up on earnings. LMT again opening up and
you can see it wasn't even at its highs.
Going to have a little resistance around
551. And then if we look at RTX, RTX was
pretty close to the highs, but double
top around 215 right up here. All right,
back to oil. Oil continues to push 1 uh
9150 right now on WTI. I'm watching that
934050%
Fibonacci retrace as the next level, but
look at this, guys. Gold today. Look at
that.
Yesterday rallies up into the upper band
of the wedge. We got to throw a arrow in
there to keep it going since we've had
we have all of our arrows marking here.
And look at today, right back down. What
a slam down on gold, guys. Gold is down
2% on the day, just like that as the
dollar rips higher. And then what about
silver? Look at silver, it's also
getting hammered. Had really 1 2 3 4 up
days in a row, and then right back down
giving back over 50 about 50% of the
move just today alone. I still am
watching the 54 level here, which we
came so close to. And again, sometimes I
wonder if when I talk about these
levels, just like in the trading room,
sometimes people buy just ahead of the
levels, which is okay. Listen, you know,
you guys can make your own choices. I
sit waiting patiently for the levels to
hit. Natural gas, guys. Nat gas has
started to catch a little bit of a bid
the last few days. Again, possibly on
the back of oil. I'm also hearing more
and more chatter that there's going to
be actual shortages of natural gas over
the next couple years due to due to the
usage in data centers. So we know data
centers don't have enough energy.
They're going to have to go out and buy
their own energy um to really run it.
They can't be pulling from the grid and
driving all of our energy prices up 30
40 100%. So, they're going to have to
buy their own energy. Now, listen, in a
way that's going to drive up the price
of natural gas, which is going to
probably affect us that anyways. But,
the point is is that if that's true, nat
gas could be on pace for $5 within a
year. That is a possibility that I think
needs to be discussed more and more.
Lastly, guys, as I got to get to my
trading room, Bitcoin coming back in.
Watch this level on Bitcoin, 67,000.
That's this pivot high. We kissed it.
back a little bit. Again, that is a
level I'm very closely watching on
Bitcoin. We break this, we go to the
factored or calculated target of the
inverse head and shoulders, which is 71
to 72,000
on Bitcoin. All right, guys, today is
going to be a wild day. All right, not
only again do we have oil making a
bigger move today pushing through
resistance at 87, 88 to now 9150. Again,
with resistance the next level at 9340.
But, we have gold and silver tanking.
The dollar again is surging. We have the
dollar ripping to the upside. 10-year
yields above 4.75%
or 4.7% and then we even have
the stocks that are falling on earnings.
Lots going on here. All right, I got to
get to my trading room for day trading,
folks. Again, if you're interested in
swing trading, come check out the
services, the smart money services at
verifiedinvesting.com.
Those again are swing trading. You see
my live portfolio, my exact shares
entered, literally alerts going out
instantaneously. You get it all in those
services at verifiedinvesting.com. Have
a great rest of your day. Thanks again
for tuning in. Take care.