Trading The Close | July 23, 2026

AI Summary

Transcript

[music]
>> Hello everybody. Welcome to Trading the
Close. My name is Rudosa. And guys, the
markets today, holy cow, what volatility
that all kicked off yesterday after
hours when we covered both Google and
Tesla earnings, both of which had nice
declines today. The whole markets, all
of which down today. Major reasons,
guys, escalation in the Middle East, US
oil spiking up throughout the course of
the day. We had the 10-year yield make
new near-term highs. We're going to take
a look at that chart. We had the
unemployment report come out. It was
weaker than expected, better than
expected if you take it. However, that
put pressure on rates increasing, not
only for September's FOMC, but even this
month's FOMC next week. We'll get into
that here in a moment. But first off,
let's get into the S&P 500, guys. On the
daily chart with the SPY ETF. Guys, look
at this how we were watching yesterday's
price action, did not confirm back above
that declining trend line, but we
settled out right on top of it. And
today slipped inside right back down. So
that puts us back down in bearish price
action from at least the most near-term
bullish upside price action that we've
experienced. Now we're closing back down
underneath this inclining trend line,
showing that we could be coming down to
retest the top end of this parallel
channel. And if we do so, guys, look
back here. We're This would then be the
collective third hit of this top end of
the parallel channel. And that value
tomorrow is at $732.54. If I back
out onto the weekly time frame, you can
see it pretty clear. We've got up above
nicely. Price is trying to do its best
to stay above, but the more and more we
hit this, the more likely we're going to
break and come back in. And on the
weekly time frame, you can cleanly see
too where we have a solid level of
support, which is going to be right on
top of the consolidation that took place
in January of this year if we break back
down into the top end of that parallel
channel. Next up, the Qs, guys. You see
here very nice decline here, too.
Yesterday was very good for the Qs to
close above this horizontal trend line.
Today, we didn't accomplish staying
above that. Matter of fact, we slipped
beneath the very next level of support,
one that we've been paying attention to
that has caught these little dips in
price action over the past three dips.
But just like the spiders, guys, we keep
testing and keep testing and keep
testing, and we're doing it more
frequently now. Look at the time uh
frame that we spaced out from our last
hit, and then now we're hitting it
within just a couple days. That tells
me, guys, probabilities are shifting for
us to come lower. Now, Tesla had uh a
very nice close at the very end of the
day, nice 10-minute candle, but part of
that was short covering, and we have
Intel reporting after hours moving up
pretty nicely so far. So, the Qs are
doing pretty good to get right back on
this trend line as at least for right
now. We'll see where price opens up
tomorrow. Obviously, see what other
escalation could occur over in the
Middle East, too, that could throw us a
curveball for uh our current charts.
Next up, the SMH, guys. Now, the SMH,
again, leading indicator, guys.
Yesterday confirmed above this neckline
negating the head and shoulders pattern,
one of which was kind of a It was kind
of a
you know, get out of magnifying glass
head and shoulders to isolate down that
right shoulder. However, uh the fact is
is that the technical analysis held up,
and price on the SMH near term, at
least, is pushing up. But notice today's
candle caught support on that neckline.
That's what it should do. Once we
confirm back in a certain level and
range, if we're going to come back down
and test that neckline in one which that
we broke to confirm, well, then we're
going to catch support there. That's
exactly what it did. So, the chart, at
least for now is working with proper TA.
We'll see where tomorrow opens up and
then where we close as we could still be
in jeopardy. If we continue to attack
that neckline, that obviously would lead
us to more of a fall down on the charts
much like what's already happened on the
Qs. But, keep in mind on the Qs, guys,
one day down closing underneath that
line. That doesn't confirm a breakdown.
It just increases probabilities of us
continuing down in the near term. Next
up, guys, 10-year yield. This was part
of the big story of the day. Guys, look
at this. Getting in May 19th
and 20th. That resistance level at
4.687%.
The last 4 days, four green days on the
10-year yield straight up on the chart.
That's not really good for rates. That's
not good for borrowing. That's more
likely going to put pressure on the
markets than help the markets out in the
situation even with the SMH going up.
So, I think it's important that we also
consider this. Like, when the war really
kicked off,
tech still ripped, right? There were
some other spaces that were under
pressure, but the tech, the AI data
center build-out, it ripped. But, guys,
let's look at the 10-year yield when
that occurred, all right? So, when did
that occur? That occurred back here in
March. Where was the 10-year yield? We
were down here, guys. We were at 4%, sub
4%. Now, we're talking about 4.6%
and an escalation occurring. Well,
that's not good for rate hikes. I know
you've heard me talk about it before and
a lot of you have fought me on it
saying, "Drew, there's no way they're
hiking rates." Well, let me just show
you what I'm looking at with the Fed
prediction tool, all right? And that
tool it can be seen right here. Now,
this number is for rates to remain the
same at 3.5 to 3.75%.
This number before today was at 89%.
Now, that number, as you see, is reduced
down to 64% with some of those odds
shifting over to a rate hike as soon as
next week. Now, it's not 50/50. It's
less of a chance, but still this is a
development, something that we should
pay attention to. And then the very next
meeting in September, this went
completely down and shifted much, much
higher here for a hike. This was nearly
a 50/50 shot for a potential either keep
the rate same or the rate hike. There
was a slight chance of an increase. Now
it's 56% chance of a one
of a of a .25 hike, but then there's
actually a 25% of a double hike, guys.
You see what I'm seeing on this chart.
Nothing over here on the left saying
that we're going to cut rates anytime
soon is increasing on the side. It's
just increasing all to the right talking
about potential double hikes coming as
soon as September if we don't hike next
week in July. So keep this on the radar.
Obviously, this data does change with
every print that comes out of new
economic information, but when the
10-year is pushing up like this, it's
telling me rate hikes are likely on the
table. Unemployment was displaying that
the economy was doing well, but me,
honestly, I just think there's a lot of
folks unemployed that aren't getting
unemployment benefits anymore. Next up,
guys, into gold on the daily time frame.
Now yesterday we highlighted how gold
broke through not one, not two, but
three different resistance trend lines
intraday trading, ended up selling back
through the last two, and then today
getting rejected. I said that that was
an awful lot of resistance. I don't care
what news comes out. I don't care what
new
what new rate the 10-year yield's going
to be at. I don't care about any of
that. The technical analysis showed us
that was going to happen. Now I was even
baffled that it went through all of
those levels yesterday, and I'm like,
"Wow, that's that's impressive. Maybe we
could gap up over into that parallel
channel." But the TA came out and played
its role shutting down that price
action, pulling it right back down into
bearish consolidation on that chart.
Next up, into silver. Now silver already
had a near-term breakout from this very
sharply declining trendline that you see
on the chart. But most importantly for
it today, guys, it it broke down
confirming back in the top 50% of this
parallel channel. And to back out and
show you where that's from, this is a
long-range parallel channel that goes
all the way back here to 2008. And
eight, so fast forward into current
times on the daily time frame, and you
can see yesterday we closed in the top
50%. Day before we closed in the top
50%. Today, rug pull action right back
down. Next level of contention for
support, 5628.
But I'm looking for silver if this
momentum continues downward, sub $50
right around $49 and change for that
next level of support. Next up, the big
secondary big news of the day with US
oil breaking through that declining
trend line, much like what I said could
happen yesterday where I saw price
action getting rejected from the
declining trend line, and escalation
just continuing in the Middle East. I
said, "Yeah, TA did its job yesterday,
held down price, but with this
development, I see no reason we can't
have oil go a little bit higher and the
gap from that next resistance was quite
large. So, next up, we've got 9644 as
resistance. See if we get a daily close
tomorrow above today's high. If so, that
then will flip this trend line into
support at 8683. Otherwise, current
support all the way down here at $81 and
$0.33.
Next up into nat gas. Nat gas did a
great job yesterday closing here at $9
or pardon me, $2.91. This trend line to
get above was $2.9068.
So, just less than half of a penny,
closed above it. So, watch today. We
need to see nat gas push up a little bit
more. Now, they did have a spike when
they did have inventories come out today
about 10:30, but then price immediately
came right back down. You can see this
on the hourly time frame. We had Here we
go, 10:30 pop right about here. Uh
pardon me, pardon me, even later. Pardon
me, let me get the 10-minute chart so I
can see this a little bit better. There
was the pop. Excuse me, it was a little
bit earlier, and then a pop later in the
day, but we once we popped, we just came
straight right back down to where we
were earlier. So, it wasn't that big of
a pop to get it to stay. Main thing is,
where's it going to close today? Is it
going to close back above $2.90.68
or above yesterday's high? Um either of
which would boast well for further
upside on that gas. Next up into
Bitcoin, guys. Bitcoin was in jeopardy
of breaking uh down and you can see the
little wick that occurred so far at the
bottom of the daily candle is saving it.
Look at this chart. Last few days had
daily closes inside the bottom of the
parallel, extended ourselves up
confirming in and then now today's
downside looking to test the bottom of
this parallel, $64,300.
If we get a close underneath that, that
would increase probabilities for getting
rejected once again from that parallel
channel. So, we're right there on the
edge on Bitcoin. Pay attention to this
in the next couple days as that does
shift probabilities tremendously. Uh
next up, guys, into Google. All right,
now Google had earnings after the bell
and we covered some of the decline
yesterday in the show, uh but look at
how this inclining trend line backdating
from June of 2025 connected over to this
pivot from the March of 2026 lows and
that caught price so far today. But
notice what's happening. We're now
trading in the lower 50% of this
parallel channel. In the coming days,
when we do have decent drops on stocks
after earnings, there could still be
some pent-up selling pressure. Watch
this trend line in the coming days. If
we close beneath this trend line at
317.90,
that will increase probabilities for us
to come down to the next level of
support at 301.32. Either of which are
capable of providing a bounce up to the
50% area of this parallel channel, a
retrace from the breakdown that just
occurred and that level is at 339.64.
Next up into Tesla, guys. Tesla also
similarly declining nicely on its chart
like Google.
But in this situation, we're not
catching support on a 50% area of a
parallel. Matter of fact, guys, we are
catching support on the 618 fib retrace.
Now, you see this where I just took my
Fibonacci retracement tools. Notice how
that trend line gets in right above that
618 fib retrace and price today closed
beneath it. I anticipate Tesla could
even still see a little bit more selling
in the near term for the next couple
days, but this area should act like a
trampoline, help price get supported and
then try to get a move back up. First
things first, though, for or for Tesla,
you need to get and close back above
this declining trend line. So, for the
near term, that's around $327 to $328.
If it can do that in the near term, then
we can start pushing up and testing this
next declining trend line roughly at the
high of today's price action right
around 343. And then eventually, we
could have then retrace this inclining
trend line. Then the main reason Tesla
and Google are falling wasn't because
their earnings were too bad. Now, Tesla
did miss slightly, but it was a lot of
CapEx spending and folks are getting a
little concerned on all of that spending
with rates increasing. Makes sense,
guys. Another also
chart move that makes sense, American
Airlines. Now, American Airlines also
came out and had earnings, but their
their record Q2 revenue did not lift up
the price of the stock and we can
understand why. In the future, guys, the
high increased oil costs are going to
start pinching margins for airlines.
Now, we don't know how long air
air fare is going to be expensive or at
least the oil is going to remain
elevated. We don't know how long that's
going to occur, but should this be
prolonged and move through the holiday
season, you can better believe companies
like American Airlines, Delta are one
not going to have as many passengers and
two, the folks that have already booked,
they may have gotten in at rates with
that are going to not necessarily be
beneficial for the long term for margins
on these airlines. So, this is going to
be a curious fall and winter that we're
approaching with heavy holiday travel.
So, near-term, this decline today did
catch support at 1341
on the charts for American Airlines.
That's all good for the near-term, but
notice with this was a nice failed
breakout attempt on the American
Airlines chart with a declining trend
line back here from June of 2021.
So, this this now is a steep push back
inside. Now, we can catch support. Look
at all of these pivots and we can
re-attack that trend line, only way I
see that is if oil prices start coming
down. So, correlate your play with
American Airlines to having some sort of
alleviation in the pressure and the
price and oil. If this area, if we start
bear flagging, our next support
is 1195. And once we get clear in the
Middle East, I anticipate them the
airline companies to start lifting up.
But while we've got this cloud of
uncertainty, you can imagine the
pressure will likely remain on the
airline companies until we get to key
support levels, one of which we're in
right now. Uh next up here,
Cleveland-Cliffs. Nice push up on the
chart today after earnings of 15.98%.
Notice of the repeated attempts at the
top end of this parallel channel, then
most recently we didn't make a lower
low. So, right now, these is this is all
pretty good signals going on for
Cleveland-Cliffs, but we've got a stout
level of resistance here at 1145. Let me
zoom in a little bit more. You can even
see an M pattern here on the daily time
frame. If we get through 1154,
next resistance here around $12.40
before we then attack again the top of
that parallel, 1344. So, I like where
this price action's moving. Be
anticipating some bullish consolidation
in the near-term. If this bullish price
action fails, next support though is not
going to be here on this consolidation,
it's going to be down here at the 50%
area of the parallel at $6.89.
Next up, Lockheed Martin also pushing up
after earnings, and you can see here
today Lockheed nice gain 10.54%
on the day, but look where Lockheed put
in the brakes. At the 50% area of the
parallel, guys. This parallel all the
way back here from March of 2020, the
COVID lows. Look how mainly it's
contained price throughout the most and
majority of all of its price action. A
little bit of a of a surge up above the
parallel back here in March, and then
just moving price action back down
again. This was about the pinnacle there
of us rolling out the war in the Middle
East. So, now we have not only earnings,
but then war escalating again makes
sense LMT is going to make another
attempt to get in the top 50%. So,
that's the near-term resistance right
here at 569 and 22 cents. If we get
above that, now we can start moving to
attack these low pivots just under $600.
Near-term support at 535 and 49 cents.
All right, guys. Next up into some
earnings. Right now, we got Intel
pushing up on the charts closing at
$100.23.
Let's flip over to the hourly time frame
see how high we got. We got up to 109.5
Pardon me, 113 and 72 cents. So, a nice
push up on Intel after hours. We've done
a really good job on Intel maintaining
on top of this trend line. This trend
line, guys, goes all the way back. It
goes back and it goes back all the way
back here to April of 2010. And you can
see here price closed right there tagged
it today again yet getting another
bounce. Near-term is very very much
near-term and abbreviated, but this is a
nice breakout pattern that's happening
here on Intel. One that has been held
down just for the last few days with
price action right here. So, a nice
breakout near-term support will be right
back down here at $100. Resistance at
122.20 if we can get above this pivot
high that occurred here at $116.77.
Lastly, guys, we got Comcast for a uh
viewer request. Now, Comcast, guys, I
don't have many lines on this chart and
we're starting with the weekly time
frame because I want to show you a
really where I think Comcast can come
down to, all right? We go all the way
back here. Look at this pivot high that
occurred back here in 1999,
guys, right around the 1649 level.
That's where Comcast is pointing to me
that it likely is going to go. Now, keep
in mind, we are into a near-term level
of support. We have this declining trend
line right here from pivot to pivot to
pivot. But, notice the last 3 weeks or 4
weeks, we've now hit it several times.
So, be mindful of this declining trend
line very, very closely. If we start
putting in solid closes at the end of
the week and end of days underneath that
trend line and confirming, then then
we're going to start kick-starting that
selling down to 1649. But, that's really
the trend line of support that I'm
paying attention to right now on
Comcast. Upside potential is quite big
since we've fallen so much. Near
first-time upside or near-term
resistance, pardon me, just under $25,
24.86.
All right, guys. That wraps up Trading
the Close. Man, I feel like today was
about 2 days of length in trading. We
had so much activity going on even with
somewhat lighter volume during the
summer. The news that we covered today
with the oil, the rates, the Google, the
Tesla earnings, all of that was just
going in different directions, really
creating a fascinating day in the
markets. Thank you, guys, for being here
with me to go over it. It was really,
truly a fun day in the markets.
Thank you, guys, for watching. Don't
forget to like and subscribe to the
video. Send it out to your friends and
family so they too can learn TA on the
charts. Guys, this is the last Trading
the Close of the week. Have a great
weekend. I'll see you guys next week on
Monday. Until then, guys, be safe and
I'll see you right here on the charts.
Take care, folks.
>> Mhm.