My Trading Game Plan | July 24, 2026

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My name is Gareth Soloway and I was a
losing trader until [music] I mastered
technical analysis. Logic and charts
beat hypes and narratives every time.
Now I teach investors the same [music]
techniques that made me a
multi-millionaire. This is my trading
game plan.
Good morning everybody. Happy Friday.
Hope everyone's doing well. My name is
Gareth Soloway, chief market strategist
here at verifiedinvesting.com.
And as always, we're going to dive right
into the charts, taking a look at the
key levels and what the key forecasts
are for everything covering the major
moving stocks as well as commodities
like oil, gold and silver, and of course
Bitcoin. Now listen, right now we're
seeing the S&P down slightly this
morning. There was a pretty big sell-off
yesterday and a lot of that was
partially to blame on Tesla and Google.
Those did not set a good tone for
overall mega cap earnings that we're
going to be seeing. Now Intel came out
after the bell and reported a stellar
quarter. That stock is barely up. It
tells you there's a change in sentiment
here in the markets. Companies, again,
any company that says they're going to
spend more money, even if they report
stellar numbers, is basically getting
sold off on that. Or at least the upside
is very, very limited. All right, so
that's where we are. Oil is pulling back
today. We hit a perfect 50% retrace of
the high from $120 to $67 and we hit a
key trend line. I told you yesterday
that I added to my short above $92 a
barrel. Average price on my short on oil
is about $90 a barrel, now in the money
on this pullback. Let's jump into the
charts right now and take a look at the
futures. S&P futures, you can see again
we closed right here yesterday.
And overall, we chopped in the overnight
sideways, a little bit of upside
earlier, and then a little bit of
downside back down. But all in all, S&P
futures are basically setting up to open
flat. The Nasdaq is under a little bit
more pressure. If we look at the QQQ,
you can see the Qs ended right here
yesterday, and they're down just
fractionally as well. And again, this is
just the market trying to absorb the
positivity of Intel. Again, that was
good, but at the same time, the
continued CapEx expansion, which is
really starting to worry the markets
overall. Add into that oil being around
$90 a barrel, and that's inflationary as
well. And by the way, one of the biggest
drivers of inflation in the US that's
not food and energy related and globally
is due to the AI boom. All right, they
are driving prices of chips higher, of
computers higher, of everything. And
remember, everything these days has a
chip. If you're going to go buy a TV, it
has a chip in it, right? So, this is
really remarkable how, you know, not
only are you and I paying more for
energy because of data centers, and data
centers are using massive amounts of
water, but also it's adding to the
inflation problem. Very interesting
stuff here, guys. All right. So, let's
go into the daily charts here, guys.
This is a big deal because notice this
pattern here. We talked about it all
week long, how we're basically hovering
above this major trend line going back
to the bull market high of 2021 to this
major high right here. And then I love
how price came in, hit the line, and it
should have been support, and it did act
that way. We bounced, he hit it again,
we bounced, but now look, if we sell off
today and early next week, we'll be
hitting it for the third time in
basically a month and a half. And that
is a concern because remember how
metrics work in technical analysis. The
more you hit a resistance level, the
more it weakens and the odds start to go
higher of a break back below. And that
would be very detrimental to the markets
because it would be a failed bullish
breakout. Failed patterns are very, very
negative. Right now, what do I mean by a
bullish pattern? Well, you have your
flag pole and this is really a bull
flag. So, I mean overall, it's a solid
pattern as long as it doesn't break back
down below that that trend line. All
right? On the other side, if we get a
robust rally, let's say all of a sudden
oil starts coming back in dramatically,
then you look for this break of this
trend line around 7550
or so on the S&P and we should make
another leg up. The dollar today is
fractionally higher, not up much, but
just inching up. Remember this trend
line up here, the high end of
resistance. That's the one I'm watching.
That's right around 10170 or so on the
DXY. The 10-year yield is pulling back
just a little bit. Remember, yields
coming in. Why would it Why would the
yields be down today? Let's just talk
frankly. And this should be pretty
obvious if you've been following me cuz
I do cover it almost daily. Remember
that because oil is inflationary when it
goes up, it tends to also drive rates up
when it goes up. But also, when oil
pulls back, yields on the 10-year or
rates are likely going to pull back just
a little bit. So, these are the little
nuances you want to be aware of that
again, oil is pulling back today,
therefore, yields are coming back in
just a little bit. Now, the concern I
have with yields is that it's not all
oil. Oil is this much of why yields are
up. The other massive amount is because
the US deficit keeps ridiculously
growing, again approaching $40 in debt
as the United States. Global issues as
well. I mean, it's just it's everywhere.
We hear about the worries about CapEx
spend and how these companies are
racking up debt and now they're cash
flow negative. It all adds to reasons
why yields and interest rates continue
to hold up even when oil pulled back to
$67 a barrel. And so even if oil does
pull back a lot, I don't really expect
yields to go down significantly unless
we got in a recession, in which case,
yes, then you might have less consumer
demand, maybe even a slowdown in AI
spending, and then yields could come in
cuz really inflation could come in at
least in the near term. Now,
speaking of which, I do want to touch on
oil. Oil is trading down about 2.7% this
morning. I wanted to show you this cuz
yesterday I Remember, my original level
was $87, $88 a barrel. In fact, that's
where I started my short on oil right
there. Now, as it pushed up yesterday in
the game plan, I said, "Okay, guys, it's
pushed through. Your next level is going
to be your Fibonacci retrace, your 50%
retrace." And then I also discovered
this trend line here, which is pretty
remarkable. And you can see how you take
your highest point from March 9th when
we hit $120.
It pierces here, pierces here, and
connects right through this high, and we
have it right down there. And then look
at how here's your start of your fib to
your low and your retrace to 50% was
exactly yesterday's high. And so sure
enough, we're getting that pullback
today. Now, does it hold? We'll have to
see. Obviously, a lot of this is going
to be determined by what the president
says going into the weekend. There's
going to be some nervousness that things
could escalate more over the weekend.
But again, we are watching. I follow the
charts, but obviously we want to pay
attention to the headlines as well, so
we know what is going on. But
fascinating chart on oil there. Again, I
remain short, basically flat in the
money right now, slightly on it, and I
continue to expect a pullback probably
to about $80 a barrel within a week or
two on crude oil. All right. So that's a
little rundown of oil. Dollar-yen is
still a big concern of mine. It just
continues to go up. This tells us that
the yen continues to weaken against the
dollar. And again, at some point there
will need to be intervention, or you
will see a collapse coming in the
Japanese markets. All right, if the if
the yen just keeps losing more and more
and more value, at some point there's a
reckoning that has to occur. And again,
it hasn't happened yet, but we do know
that if you go back here, I believe it
was right here, the yen was weakening,
weakening, weakening, weakening against
the dollar, and then intervention took
place. This happened, and the markets
freaked out to the downside. Nasdaq
dropped 15% in 2 weeks when that
occurred. So again, just keep it on your
radar, on your bingo card. Now, let's
flip over to Intel. Intel reported
earnings, great pop out of the gate,
surging as high as $113.75,
and then it came back in. Now again, the
earnings to be honest, the earnings were
amazing. I mean, for a company that a
year and a half ago was talked about as
will they survive, the government's
investment and basically pushing other
companies to do business with Intel has
revolutionized them in the near term. Um
having said that, what did they say
yesterday? They said, "Oh, well, we're
going to spend a lot more money."
That doesn't go over well. And then you
saw the stock falling all the way back
in here, and is now up basically 2% in
the morning session. So, 2% gain and it
Listen, you know, at some point these
these investments literally trillions
when you combine all these companies,
they're either going to pay off or not.
And I have a hard time believing that
every company spending a hundred, two
hundred billion dollars a year is going
to get paid off. I think they're going
to be winners and losers.
The question is which ones are the
winners and losers?
Big question. All right. Uh American
Express and by the way, notice I'm not
going over levels on Intel because when
Intel's up or down 2%, I mean, there's
literally not enough volatility there.
Now, if Intel spiked dramatically, sure.
Or drops, you know, drop down to $89
today right here at this pivot low, of
course there's a day trade, but the odds
considering how flat it is, up 2% in the
morning session, it's not very likely
we'll see that bigger move. Now, we do
have a big move on American Express at
least for American Express reporting
earnings today. One of the interesting
things I was doing research into their
numbers because I'm fascinated by the
credit card companies because of
delinquencies and and other factors. And
it's now interesting because even
American Express now, their profit
driver is fees on debt that is
accumulated on credit cards more so than
actual credit card spending. And it
shows a shift going on even amongst the
higher income individuals that tend to
be American Express um users or or
credit card holders that again, it's
switching. And this is a process that
the other credit card companies have
already seen and it continues to
escalate, but it's not good when these
companies are making a majority of of
their money because people can't pay off
their credit card bills. And that is
happening more and more. In any case, I
digress to the charts. Let's go to the
daily chart. We do have a gap down here
this morning. There's going to be
support and we've already kind of hit it
hit morning around this area. Pivot
high, gap fill, but we've already hit
that, so I'm now moving lower for a day
trade around this 318 and change level.
318 and change level, guys. That is my
key level to watch on AX P. All right?
Um a couple others here, we did have
some earnings this morning from the
likes of Verizon, VZ reported earnings.
That stock is basically flat to
positive, just gyrating, nothing there.
And then next Sarah Energy reported
earnings, and that too, I mean, if you
look at where it closed yesterday, it's
barely moving on the back of those
earnings. Now, next week, guys, don't
forget next week we have Microsoft, we
have Meta, we have Apple reporting
earnings. It will be
the World Cup of earnings reports next
week. I mean, tons of mega players. This
week was big, don't get me wrong, next
week is even bigger. So, be ready for
that. Plus, we'll have economic data,
folks, a lot of economic data. This week
was very light on economic data. Next
week, I believe we have the Fed
decision, that's going to be
interesting, and we also have all these
earnings, which will be coming out, plus
other economic data. All right. Um
moving on, Micron this morning is down
on the day. These stocks stayed
relatively strong yesterday. Today,
they're coming back in. I thought that
was interesting. And then Oracle,
Oracle's only up slightly on the day.
You could see yesterday after hours it
popped. It got a government contract.
All right? So, again, now, it's only up
literally 1 and 1/2 to 2% in the early
morning, and that's fine.
The contract was only $7 billion. That's
a drop in the bucket for Oracle. But,
what I would just bring to your
attention is this is how it started with
Intel, with other names. All right?
Before the government got involved, and
we know Larry Ellison is a buddy of
Trump. And so, connecting the dots here,
number one, you could see a situation
with Oracle having been hammered. I
mean, just absolute Remember, this was
like a $400 stock not that long ago,
$350 back in 2025. It's now $120.
And so, I'm connecting tea leaves here,
but the idea is, okay, they got their
first government contract. Do the Does
the government end up taking a a stake?
And then do they get favored like an
Intel as well. And again, with Larry
Ellison, who who's the founder and and
CEO of of Oracle, with him in in his his
relationship with the president, there
is a precedence precedence for something
like this to happen. I think it's an
interesting play here. And again, the
news itself, the contract was minuscule
compared to their revenue. It's about
getting their foot in the door, and what
does it tell us? All right. So, that's
an interesting one there, guys. Gold,
take a look. Gold is flat today.
Yesterday a big drawdown. Notice it came
right off of this high pivot. I'm just a
I'm just a spectator here. I want to see
does it break out? Okay, I'll jump long.
Does it break down? Then I wait to buy
until 35 3600. Maybe I nibble a little
bit earlier than that. But right now,
the wedge pattern continues to tighten
like a pressure cooker. Whichever way it
does go should be very very big. Uh
silver. Silver flatish to slightly
positive. Was down yesterday. It just
continues in this lower range.
Resistance at 63 to 64 and support at
54. All right. And just watching to see
which way does it go as these two trend
lines converge. Eventually, this is
going to be right at 63 64, both trend
lines, in probably about 2 weeks from
now. Natural gas is catching a little
bit of a bid today. So, coming up.
Nothing new here, but again, continued
to hold this technical support. So,
that's a small positive for nat gas. I
still think longer term I'm very bullish
on natural gas due to what I believe is
going to be the need from data centers
to go away from the grid and actually
get natural gas to power these things.
But in the near term, it's just a watch
for me kind of I am long a small
position smart money commodities and
minors.
I'm short oil in that same portfolio in
which by the way any member has full
access to see the real time positions
amount of shares since I buy the ETFs,
the track it, etc. For any of the
services portfolio fully transparent
like literally you see P&L gains losses
the good bad the ugly as I always say.
But in any case natural gas I like it
longer term near term I'm slightly
bullish it held support but nothing
major there. And then lastly Bitcoin
pulling back today now third down day in
a row retracing after testing that 67
level. This is going to be a big level
here. If it can't get over here we got
to start watching to see does it start
to head back to 58,000 and potentially
break down. All right guys, it is
Friday. I have my weekly wrap up today
at 4:20 so I'll be back live then. So
make sure to tune in. And as always
folks you guys know it's all charts no
BS here at Verified Investing. I don't
care the narratives I don't care the
hype. It's what is the chart telling us
and that's the one way I've been able to
be a profitable trader in my career.
Early on when I listened to all the
nonsense I was almost always on the
wrong side of the trade. Now
occasionally I'm on the wrong side it
happens. It's just a law of
probabilities but at least I'm the
casino not the gambler. That's the key.
All right have a great one guys come
check us out at verifiedinvesting.com.
I'll see you later for the weekly wrap
up. Take care.