Tech Collapses On Debt Worries, Forecasts Get Ugly, Oil Falls, Gold And Silver Pause

This week's trades, market movers, and
technical levels that [music] count,
wrapped up with clarity and precision.
This is Weekly Wrap-up with Verified
Investing.
>> Hey everybody, welcome to the Weekly
Wrap-up. My name is Gareth Soloway,
chief market strategist at
verifiedinvesting.com.
What an end of the week it was. We had a
week filled with big earnings
announcements, massive downside on Tesla
and Google when they reported. We didn't
have a lot of economic data this week,
but we did see oil surging to the
upside, topping $93 a barrel before
pulling back today. Overall, technology
continues to sell off. The NASDAQ 100
down over 1% today, while the S&P, which
saw a better flight to safety and is
more diversified away from tech, that
closed around the flat line today. So,
really it was a day where we're
continuing to see this unwind of the
tech story. Most of that being driven by
the worries over CapEx. In fact, Intel
was a great example. Yesterday surging
over 10% on earnings, and as soon as
they said their spend was going to go
up, their CapEx was going to go higher,
the stock turned around, and by today it
ended nearly 10% lower. Massive sells in
some of the semiconductors. All right,
let's go right into it here and take a
look at the S&P 500 to start the day.
The S&P 500 today basically flat on the
day, up three and change points,
continues to hover inside of this range.
And again, like I said in the game plan
this morning, we're just following very
closely. We have support and support,
and we have resistance and resistance.
Which way is it going to break? Are we
going to go up here and break out, or
are we going to come down here and break
to the downside? So, the S&P 500 is at
least right now, because of its
diversification,
it's basically holding up better.
But again, that doesn't mean it's going
to hold up better for long. It's just
right now, money is coming out of major
mega caps and names like Tesla, which
was down again today, down like 20% on
the week, names like Oracle, which just
continue to go lower, and they're
finding their way into safe haven names
in the S&P 500. Now,
couple things. If we go over to the
Nasdaq, and I want to bring up the
Nasdaq 100 here, you can see again, we
were down 1.1%
on the Nasdaq 100, and this is where we
saw most of the issues. The big question
for me is, as we come down to this
support trend line, will it hold? It
should hold, because it's the first hit
of the trend line. Usually, the first,
second, and third hits are the safest in
number orders. First hit is the most
likely to get a bounce. Second hit is
very likely. Third hit is 50/50. By the
fourth hit, that's where things get
scary. And just a reminder, we flip back
to the chart of the S&P daily chart,
this is what I'm talking about. Here's
your high pivot, all the way up to this
high pivot here, and we broke out. Here
was our first hit, almost no chance of a
break there. We bounced. Second hit,
very little chance of a break there. We
bounced. Now, if it comes down again,
this is 50/50. If it does happen to
bounce and comes down again, the odds
start to favor a a break to the
downside. That's how technical analysis
works in general. Now, the tricky thing
here is, is the Nasdaq 100 has not hit
yet. So, what we have to assume is that
in general, we had this wedge pattern,
it broke, retraced, then fell. And if it
hits on Monday, we should assume a
bounce back up. Now, assumptions,
remember, in technical analysis, are
probability-based.
And so, there's no guarantees. That's
just in most scenarios, let's say 70% of
the time, you would get a bounce off
your first retrace to that level. Okay.
So, that's the first thing to go over
there. As we come down, we should hit
support on Monday if the markets are
lower or if tech continues to sell, and
we should get some sort of bounce there.
Again, my biggest concern for this
market remains if this trend line ever
gets broken to the downside on the
Nasdaq or on the S&P. That's where the
trapdoor really opens up. Now, the
dollar today, the dollar was
fractionally higher, not much going on
there, but remains right on a precipice
of a potential breakout. Now, when we
talk about gold and silver, gold has
gotten down to about 3,900. My
worst-case
kind of scenario is a move to 3,500. The
way we get to 3,500 is if the dollar
breaks out. If the dollar breaks out and
yields go higher, then gold goes to
3,500. If the dollar doesn't break down,
3,900, there is a chance that is the low
of this pullback cycle. So, really, it's
coming down when you look at gold to
what the dollar and the 10-year yield do
in the coming weeks, right up at this
key level of resistance. Are we going to
break out or are we going to come down?
A lot of that may have to do with what
happens with Iran, and we'll be watching
this weekend to see if there's further
escalation. 10-year yield today, down
slightly, and again, why down slightly
today? Well, simply put, oil pulled
back, and you can see right here, if we
go to the daily chart, there's your
pullback on oil. It pulled back about
2.2%
yesterday. I gave you guys a heads up
that I did start a short on oil. I added
it to it again yesterday when we were
north of 92. We're getting our pullback.
You can see your 50% retrace and down
sloping trend line right here. Now,
there's no guarantees it doesn't go
higher. We'll have to see what happens
this weekend. But again, I trade on
charts, not on news. I always look at
news as like when you're listening to
news, you're basically
the low man on the totem pole. And what
I mean by that is that there are
insiders within the government that know
the second something happens. There are
institutions that pay extra money like
we heard that President Trump is now
there trust Truth Social is now selling
for like $100,000 a month, you can get
his tweets even faster. And so, I don't
have those advantages. I think a lot of
you guys don't have those advantages.
And so, where do I have my advantage? By
looking strictly at the probabilities.
And that's really the way I can do it.
Otherwise, I'm at a major disadvantage
like so many people who listen to the
news and make decisions emotionally
based off those headlines. All right.
Let's continue on here. We talked about
Intel. Look at that, down 8% on the day.
This doesn't look horrible on the daily
chart, but if you flip to the 10-minute
chart, this is where things get nuts.
Yesterday after hours, Intel surged on
earnings, and then even after hours, it
came in once they talked about CapEx
spending and was kind of hovering around
the flat to slight positive. Once the
market opened, it was just sell central.
What a drop on Intel
from the highs yesterday. Take a look at
this, guys. From the highs of price
after hours yesterday to the lows today,
19.4%
drop on Intel. That is astounding
in terms of downside. Now, we're going
to cover Oracle. I want to cover Micron,
SanDisk. I want to look at gold. I want
to look at silver, natural gas, and
Bitcoin. But, before we do that, I do
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you'll have the link. All right, let's
get back to the charts here, guys. As we
go into Oracle, this has been
remarkable, folks. I thought Oracle
would bounce over here when we were at
like 140. We were into these lows, and
you got this tiny little bounce, and
then it just went straight down. This is
remarkable, folks. You had a company
that, back here, was at $345.
It's now at $115.
This is a net drop from the highs here.
If we do the measurement, let me grab my
measurement tool. This is a now draw
down of 67%.
It has lost 2/3 of its value. And this
is all because they've basically raised
a ton of capital via the debt markets,
and their capex is astronomical. And
this was I would say this is the OG for
what companies are going through now.
So, now you're seeing Intel, and you saw
Google, right? Google had great
earnings, but as soon as they said they
were upping their spend this year to 200
billion, and next year it was going to
be higher, the stock tanked. Same thing
with Tesla. So, when I say the OG, it
means like the old school gangster in
that in that situation was Oracle, the
original that once they started to spend
a lot of money and run up debt, that's
when it collapsed. The question is, will
Oracle be the one that bottoms out when
these things finally bottom? And the big
thing here is this, is that when you're
spending 200 billion dollars a year,
the question has to be asked, what type
of return are you getting it? Because if
you're going to get a one-for-one, and
you're going to make 200 billion, it's
not worth it. You could have invested
that money somewhere else. So, these
companies need to show some sort of
return soon, or they will continue to
slide lower, which is going to make next
week's earnings from Meta, Microsoft,
and other big names unbelievably
important. These companies have to be
looking at their stock prices. Meta's
way down, Microsoft's way down. I mean,
heck, almost every single company out
there that's in the AI infrastructure,
or or you know, the the the
hyperscalers, they're all massively
down. They've got to show that there's
light at the end of the tunnel, or their
stocks are going to continue to tank.
And investors are not happy. I'll tell
you this. And I thought it was
interesting yesterday Oracle got a deal
with the the US government for military
stuff,
only 7 billion, which is nothing to
them. But, I thought it was very
interesting because we know Larry
Ellison is a buddy of Trump. And I was
like, all right, well, you know, maybe
if you extrapolate that out, the US
might get a position in Oracle, and then
the stock goes on a 50% run. And then
today, it opened higher and sold right
off. And the markets just said we don't
care. We don't care. Not one bit. And
that is a huge change in sentiment, and
why I think the tech sector is so risky
here is because once mentality shifts,
it's very hard to justify these
valuations. Now, listen, Oracle's
actually I mean, Oracle's kind of
getting cheap down here, but it doesn't
mean it has to stop. Remember, things
get overbought to the upside and
oversold to the downside way further
than anyone thinks in either direction.
All right. So, keep an eye on this trend
line. I am watching this one, guys, on
Oracle. This is your next big stop
around 112 to 111. Key downsloping
uh descending trend line right down
here. So, keep that on your radar.
Again, around 111 to 112. Sandisk today
down 11%.
This is your target zone. All right. So,
if this comes down here, this is where I
buy.
1250 to 1125. Anywhere from this high
end to this low end, big pivot point.
You could see the initial move up, and
then you had the couple gaps, and then
you went up, and you retraced into that
level before shooting up. That would be
a retrace. I don't think that's where it
stops. I still am adamant these stocks
will most likely correct 75%
of their rally to the upside,
but at least for a technical bounce,
that looks interesting. Micron was down
about 7% today. Micron, I still think
we're going lower as well. There's a gap
fill down here, which eventually I think
it will see that. And that's at around
$750.
That is a key gap fill right there. Uh
Apple today. Now, look at Apple.
So, we we just looked at all these
stocks that got crushed, right? I mean,
you know, massive drops to the downside
in most of these names. Hyperscalers,
chip stocks, whatever you want to call
them.
Apple was a rock star today. Okay? Now,
you might say, "Well, why did Apple
perform so well?" Well, let me ask you a
question. Of all the Magnificent Seven
companies out there. What company did
not spend massive amounts of money on
AI?
You hear the Jeopardy music in the
background, right? Um obviously it's
Apple.
And they are getting rewarded. In other
words, what's happening now is when
money is running away from these crazy
capex spendings from these companies,
it's going to a home in Apple. Now, I
actually think Apple's up into major
resistance up here. You can see it had a
pullback off this trend line already,
which was a great ascending trend line.
Now, it's almost back to there, maybe
hits on Monday. That could be resistance
around 336. Let's see if it pulls back
off of there. Maybe the hyperscalers are
due for a bounce. Maybe that coincides
with that level around 111 112 on
Oracle. We'll have to wait and see, but
very, very interesting. All right,
looking at gold.
Gold almost did nothing today. So, gold
just sat here. Um part of that was that
the dollar didn't do much. Yields were
down a little bit, but that was mostly
on the back of oil.
All eyes remain, like we talked about
early on, watch that US dollar chart. If
the US dollar is going to break out,
gold's going to 3,500. If it pulls back
and breaks down, then I think the
3,900-ish level could be the lows. We're
very close at this point. It's kind of
like, you know, the easy move was from
5,600 down to about 3,900. Now, you're
in this range of okay, how much lower is
gold going to go? And that's going to
purely depend on the US dollar and
obviously to some extent the 10-year
yield, which is part of the deal here as
well. All right, so again, watch this
wedge pattern. The wedge pattern should
be our our insight and our truth teller
about either a breakout or a breakdown
one way or the other. This wedge is
getting tighter and tighter. Silver,
silver continues to be stuck between
resistance here at around 63 to 64 and
support at 54. Today, we were up a
little bit on silver, but again, it's
just a whole lot of chop in the lower
range. Maybe it's trying to make a
little bit of a bottom. We'll have to
keep our eye on this over the next week.
Again, I think a big player here is
going to be where do we see that dollar
go? Uh we talked about oil already,
which was down on the day, falling off
of the 50% retrace. All eyes will be on
the Middle East this weekend. Is the US
going to escalate even more? Is Iran
going to escalate? Where are things We
know that the president tends to like to
do things over the weekend because he
likes to start it right away and end it
by Sunday night when the S&P futures
open so that calm returns to the market.
So if there's going to be something that
happens, it likely will be this weekend.
I would say if Sunday night comes and
nothing's happened and maybe maybe that
oil actually falls decently then because
again, there was no additional
escalation over the weekend.
Lastly, guys, natural gas, which was up
earlier in the day, it did not hold
those gains and it's just really been
chopping in this lower range. We'll have
to watch and see where it goes next
week. It continues to hold this key
support level. So as long as it holds
the support level, I'm going to give it
the benefit of the doubt. I would also
say that you have a couple trend lines
here to keep an eye on. We have this one
here as well as a secondary one right
through here. So there's a bunch of
resistance right in this range. If we
get up to about 310, if it can break
through that, then I think you got some
legs. But right now we have to see, all
right, as these trend lines kind of
converge, which way does natural gas go?
And then Bitcoin, guys, Bitcoin has fine
found itself in a tricky scenario here
where it tested 67,000
and got rejected, which is pretty
normal. But the question is, is this
starting to be a bigger pullback or not?
If it can stall here, I think it's fine.
This is just your run-of-the-mill
retrace. If we look at a little parallel
here, there's a good little parallel
right in this vicinity as well. You can
see price has kind of been going up and
down inside of this, but I'd like to see
I would like to see Bitcoin hold 63,000
to 63,500. That would be ideal in terms
of price action. If it starts breaking
into the 62s, I'd be concerned we're
going to dip all the way back down. As
long as it stays inside of here, I think
the odds favor a break above 67,000
and a move to about 72,000.
So, I'll be keeping you guys up to date
next week on that. And as always, folks,
remember verified investing is all about
charts and data. Let everyone else
scream about what's going on on social
media. I want to be the place you guys
can come to for probability and logic.
Because for me, that's what's worked.
And if it's worked for me, I've got to
assume it's going to work for other
people. My biggest losses are when I've
gotten emotional in on investments, and
then I make the wrong decision at the
wrong time, and then it costs me. So,
let's try to reinvent ourselves.
Overall, we want to be that guiding
light. I want you guys to be able to use
us for that. We'll do our best to always
be as on point as possible, but
remember, it is a probability game. All
right, have a great weekend, guys.
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