Trading The Close | July 27, 2026

AI Summary

Transcript

[music]
>> Hello everybody. Welcome to trading the
close. My name is Drew Dosey. Guys, I
hope you had a great weekend and back to
the markets we are in and guys consider
this. This week we got a lot going on.
We've got big tech earnings already
scheduled with Apple, Microsoft, Meta,
Hood, ARM, you name it. We've got some
really big stocks reporting earnings
this week. Plus we've got the FOMC
decision that will take place on
Wednesday afternoon and with the
backdrop we've got this war going on in
the Middle East escalating over the last
week, but then paused yesterday, then
started back again today. We did have
oil coming down on the charts and so at
least that's the truth for what we're
trying to trade and so that's what we're
going to focus on. So a lot of stuff
going on. Plus we had CXMT Corporation's
premiere in the over in China for an IPO
and it surged up over 400 to 500%. And
those that don't know about CXMT, we're
going to get into that here in a little
bit. It's put pressure on other DRAM
stocks in the market. So let's start off
with the S&P 500. Got a lot to cover
today. S&P 500 ended up basically flat
guys, but that didn't really tell the
major story. It was a major sell day in
the markets, but we just didn't come
down a lot. That was really the selling
pressure on the SMH. You can take a look
at the 10-minute chart here on the SPY.
We were all the way up here to start the
day testing this the top end of this
declining trendline and then it was just
sell, sell, sell, sell all day and
really chop sideways into the close. If
we didn't have this little surge up at
2:50, man, we'd be talking about a lower
range close and a very high probability
chance of further downside. So it was a
nice bounce to finish the end of the
day, but that still remains comfortably
beneath this declining trend line. Now,
3 days all closing right in a line. Look
how tight that is, guys. It tells me we
are looking like we're trying to go
lower on the S&P 500 with next support
down here on this inclining trend line
that has saved price the previous two
times that it did search down through
that range. That level tomorrow, if we
do go down, is at $733.28.
And really just kind of think about
this, guys. You have a lot of
uncertainty coming up with the FOMC and
these earnings. It makes sense for
investors to trim a little bit of their
positions going into these big
announcements coming up just to protect
themselves in case we do see harder
selling pressure. So, I don't anticipate
a lot of volatility until we finally get
a few pieces of these puzzles put
together, namely the FOMC decision later
this week on Wednesday and and
particularly the narrative of
surrounding rate hikes. All right, into
the Qs that we go, guys. We did
highlight last week on Thursday we
closed underneath that trend line, but
that was just one day. Since then,
Friday we confirmed that break and even
extended the selling a little bit
further today. So, tomorrow this
horizontal trend line will be resistance
695 and $64. We kissed support. We
didn't actually hit it down here at
674.90. So, that still remains the level
to beat to the downside on the Qs. Now,
on the SMH it was a different story down
2.25%
today. Nice continued decline hitting
once again the top range of this
inclining parallel channel, one that did
contain price ever since the liberation
day low. So, you can cleanly see that is
the level holding up price on the SMH.
And I want to remind you guys, semis
lead the way, guys. Pay attention to the
semis that likely is going to start
spilling out and bleeding over to the
rest of the markets if the semis
continue to remain under pressure. Now,
if they do, where's the next spot for a
potential support bounce? That's going
to come right here on this 50% area of
the parallel channel. And that's an
older parallel. That's around 508 and 20
cents. If we go back on the chart, you
can see how price did pause and hesitate
right there in that region. But beyond
that, there's not a lot of support. So,
we as a bull, you want to see price, if
it comes down to this $500 range, to
hold this level and attempt to make
another bounce back up to test the top
of the parallel. Getting ahead of
ourselves a little bit on the downside,
but that's what I'm looking at for the
downside to the upside. Resistance near
term will be right here on this previous
neckline of the head and shoulders
pattern, $578
and 24 cents. Into the 10-year yield
that did pull back today. So, we had oil
and the 10-year pulling back, but we
didn't have the markets ripping higher.
And again, it was because of that
uncertainty. We don't know what the
earnings are going to produce later this
week, and we don't know the narrative
surrounding the war's our Kevin Warsh's
decision on Wednesday. So, the 10-year
yield still did pull back a little bit.
But guys, everything I'm seeing, as far
as the data, the reports, the inflation,
the economic, as far as jobless claims,
is all pointing towards a potential
hike. As as high as a 60% chance to keep
the rates flat for this meeting, but
there's a 37% chance for them to have a
rate hike this meeting. If they don't do
that, there's actually a high high
percentage chance that we increase rates
in September. So, listening to the
narrative this week is going to be
extremely important because the Fed does
not have a meeting next month in August.
They postpone that every single year
until September. So, we've got a little
bit of a lull without an announcement
from the Fed. So, this is going to be
very important to watch and listen to
what Kevin Warsh
describes and portrays for the future of
rate cuts and or hikes around the table.
All right, next up guys, we got gold.
Gold, as we've been following this
declining trend line, there was a lot of
resistance here. I did not see gold
breaking through here on Wednesday, and
I was correct in calling that it would
take many days of consolidation and
retesting of all of these levels before
gold can start breaking out and going
higher. Still today, that's the same
story. So, tomorrow, the level to watch
here first is at $4,096
to the upside to the downside support at
3886.
Silver doing somewhat of a similar
thing, but it has already broken out of
this declining trend line that we see
here on the charts. Even came back,
retested this range of the breakout, and
has since elevated back up. So, that
near term, since we've already broken
out of that range, this is the upside
resistance from this pivot high at
$63.26.
I'm still waiting for silver to
eventually roll over a little more a
little bit more down sub $50 and tag
this trend line here at $49.71.
Next up in the US oil, as I already
discussed, nice decline here down 9.52%
getting close to what I have down here
as a support zone, because you see this
few days of consolidation right around
$80. $81.33
is the first entrance into that support
zone, and the bottom range of it is down
at $80. So, I anticipate this level to
provide a little bit of temporary
support. We'll see what the news
headlines will be tomorrow once the
market opens. Into the upside, we have
any sort of rising escalation, near term
resistance 8707,
but then ultimately $96.44.
You see, if I string that trend line out
just a little bit further, it it
coincides right there with that level.
So, any return in escalating
situation for war in the Middle East
will likely drive oil straight to that
resistance spot. So, they were book
ended with price action on US oil. Now,
nat gas, what a slip and slide, guys.
We've been talking about how all of
these days of price action and nat gas
was doing a fantastic job to try to
finish up near the top of the chart as
far as this consolidation. And then
these last couple days trying to close
above that trend line. We never
confirmed though with a break above and
a confirming close up, which led it
vulnerable to a slip right back down.
So, unfortunately, we had price come
right back down with the next support at
$2.75.
Now, holding this will be very critical
for the bulls near to mid term. As you
can see, if we start breaking underneath
that trend line, we're now going to be
testing these lower range price points
from April, which likely would lead to
more downside at $2.53. So, bulls, you
want to see 275 defended, and then you
need to have price come back up, reclaim
on top of price action with $2.90.68.
Next up in the Bitcoin, not really doing
too much, guys, over the weekend. The
same story true. However, the main thing
is we're in the parallel still. So, for
that to remain the case, price tomorrow
needs to close above $64,536.
Upside resistance still capped by this
high pivot when price didn't even tag it
for the high pivot at 67,264.
Uh next up, part of the story of the
day, guys, CXMT Corporation. Now, you
may be saying, "What is this?" Well,
guys, that chart is displaying the one
day that it IPO'd over in China, pushing
up 466 to 500%,
making this stock China's most valuable
listed company by market cap, overtaking
industrial banks and other tech giants.
Now, the reason this is important is
because this is a DRAM chip, guys. And a
DRAM chip is entering the space with
heavy and high margins for companies
much like this one right here, SNDK.
Look at the nasty fall that occurred
there. Now, it doesn't mean that SNDK is
losing money right away with this other
company coming out and IPOing over in
China. What it means is that there's
more competitors in that space, which is
going to start chiseling away at margins
for all of these big high flyers like
SNDK and MU. MU had a down day, but it
didn't have as big of a down day as SNDK
did. Look at that nice recovery on that
candle, but both of these stocks faced
pressure mainly because another
competitor is entering their space. And
guys, I don't blame them. If you're
making 80-plus percent margins, who
doesn't want a piece of that pie? I
almost guarantee you everybody that had
the ability to make DRAM was scratching
their heads trying to figure out I want
80% margins as well. And even if they
take home 50% margins, they're still
doing very well. So, that does hurt, at
least for the near term, the narrative
with some of these memory plays for the
AI data center play. Uh next up, guys,
couple of stocks that actually were in
the green today, Oracle. I know that
kind of sounds odd, right? Hasn't been
in the green for more than 2 days in a
long time, and we're still waiting for
that, guys. I'm not holding my breath,
but today we did push up 4.27%
and we did close above the support level
of $118.86.
I'm on the watch here for Oracle to
eventually start getting uh a lift up,
even though they've got a lot of debt
issues with AI data center spending. I
totally understand that. But I'm waiting
for some sort of positive news to
develop before their September earnings
for price to re-attack the broken trend
line up here at $143.
Right now, price is trying to catch
support at uh $118.86.
However, you notice I've got another
declining trend line on the chart right
about $100, 103 and 82 cents. We very
well, if we break here, this could be
the next destination for my pending
bounce that I can see Oracle going back
up and attacking the bottom range of
that parallel channel because after all
guys, in this show we cover these charts
nearly every week when price breaks down
likes to find support and then retrace
where it broke down from and then find
resistance or even have that battle to
break back into that parallel at that
point. So, that's on the horizon for
Oracle whether or not that's going to
happen here at 118 or 103 uh will be
left to be determined at a later date.
Uh next up team, another stock with a
good day today pushed up over 10% but
you can see what team is doing here.
We've had a very nice breakdown mainly
contained in this declining parallel
channel but you see with today's price
action putting price right back in
contention with the 50% area of this
parallel channel. Now, we already
attempted this breakout back here at the
beginning of June and since has failed
but look how how nicely price has
recovered right back up attempted to get
in rebroke down and then now we're right
back knocking on that door again. The
repeated attempts in this short time
frame tell me t e a m probabilities are
shifting towards a breakout to the top
50% of the parallel with the next
resistance at $120.09.
The catalyst very well could be earnings
coming up here on August 6th. So, stay
tuned for that. Next up, Workday also
another nice stock on the move today 9%
pushing up testing the high range of
this consolidation in which we just
failed from. So, this is a nice rapid
recovery for Workday also has earnings
coming up pretty soon here on August
20th. So, key contenders to pay
attention to for resistance this high
pivot coming up from June 1st $158.66.
If we can get through that notice we're
making higher lows in the most near term
here on this chart a weekday that does
bode well for a continued push to
173.58.
Bulls have to monitor this near term
inclining trendline with support at
135.03.
If we break beneath that, all of these
levels near term are somewhat off the
table for being hit, but notice the
recovery that's occurring today, which
is very positive for Workday moving in
towards earnings later in August. Next
up, another stock beaten down on their
charts today, Nvidia. Guys, when this
stock moves near 5%, you better pay
attention, and it was moving towards the
downside with failed bullish
consolidation up here in this range.
Guys, what happens whenever you have a
failed move on a chart, you have some of
the biggest moves in the opposite
direction, and this highlights that
exact state on Nvidia. So, great decline
here, getting beneath the lows that
occurred on July 17th. That then brings
into
vision and view the bottom range of this
parallel channel that developed from
that liberation day lows right at
$191.88.
Now, notice that level was already hit
back here at the end of July
Thus, I've got the next support level
ready because then when and if price
breaks parallels, likes to go to support
and retrace right there to that
parallel. So, there's the next key
support level to pay attention to,
$179.74.
Next up, AMD also nice decline today
down 5.17%.
Developed a decent wick at the bottom of
its daily candle much like MU did, but
still this is a confirmed breakdown yet
again from this parallel channel. Look,
we tried to do that here on July 17th,
price just navigated right back into the
parallel. Now, we have a confirming
breakdown that tells me resistance now
at this parallel channel, $544.23.
First support at $447.37.
Another stock also decent decline today,
LITE getting rejected from this
declining trendline and coming right
back down to attack this low range
candle that also tagged the bottom of
the parallel channel. Now, this is a
little different. We've hit this bottom
of the parallel once, twice, three
times. So, this is now the fourth hit
making this a 50/50 shot for breaking
through and given that price was just
here on July 17th, I'm angling more for
a breakthrough if we have further
selling tomorrow with the next support
at $616.99.
Lastly, we got a viewer request from
What's up? Actually, S S U U P P. What's
up? For I R E N, I R E N. Thank you
guys, by the way, for all your comments
and requests.
It really helps the show out. I make
sure to follow and watch all those
comments. I really, really appreciate
all those kind words. It takes a lot of
effort to give you guys the best setups
and also the best in the new stocks of
the day. So, I hope and plan to keep
making my show better and better. So,
back to the chart for I R E N. Now, you
see I R E N 2 on the daily time frame
has now confirmed a breakdown underneath
this inclining trend line. Very similar
to the last chart of L I T E. It tells
me we're likely still coming lower. Now,
with the confirming break, that now
makes this resistance, this inclining
trend line, $39.04.
If we can get a daily close above that,
you see resistance isn't that much
further beyond. So, we've got a lot of
resistance stacked up here right on top.
Plus, we got rejected recently. So,
it'll be a pretty tough test for I R E N
to get through both. It can happen, but
that's just what's facing it ahead at
the moment. Near-term support is $30.76.
Lastly, one more viewer request, guys,
on Wolf. Check this chart out here on
Wolfspeed. Beautiful decline down here
into this longer-term trend line
connected from pivot low in September
and the pivot low here in March. And you
can see price is doing its best right
now to try to bounce and stay up. I love
this small even though it's small, I
love this candle that's developed here
on this chart. It doesn't quite fit a
daily bottoming tail, but it's trying to
mimic one. And so, the support range on
Wolf is one that I am very interested
in. Look at how oversold it is too on
the daily. Breached the 30 just this
last week. You can see that it's trying
to put in a near-term bounce. Uh very
aggressive uh target near-term 33 at 85.
More conservative target around $29 on
the chart of Wolf. All right, guys. That
wraps up today's trade in the close.
Thanks so much for watching and tuning
in. Don't forget to like and subscribe
to the video. Send it out to your
friends and family so they too can learn
TA on the charts. I'm excited about this
week. I gave you guys a boatload of
events that are going to occur. We're
going to go over more earnings charts
starting tomorrow for earnings that are
going to take place this week. So, don't
miss the shows this week. We'll have a
boatload of information waiting for you.
Until then, we'll see you right here on
the charts, guys. Take care, folks.
>> [music]