My Trading Game Plan | July 27, 2026

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Transcript

My name is Gareth Soloway [music] and I
was a losing trader until I mastered
technical analysis. Logic and charts
beat hype and narratives every [music]
time. Now I teach investors the same
techniques that made me a
multi-millionaire. This is my trading
game plan.
Good morning everybody. Welcome to my
trading game plan. My name is Gareth
Soloway, chief market strategist here at
verifiedinvesting.com
and as always we're here to dive into
the charts and data leaving all the BS
behind. All right, so we have oil
falling today. If you were watching my
game plans last Thursday and Friday, I
gave you a heads-up that I was shorting
oil based on a move into major
resistance. It was a 50% retrace as well
as a key trend line level there as well.
And sure enough that one paid off
beautifully, folks. I did take profits
this morning with members of smart
money, commodities and minors. We took
about a 24,000 and change dollar profit
on that short using the USO, which is
the ETF. So that oil drop is now helping
the markets rally higher this morning
and we are seeing a move up. Now there's
not a lot of individual stock news, but
the big news is coming later this week
when we get massive amounts of earnings
like Meta, Microsoft and Apple as well
as the Fed decision on interest rates on
Wednesday. Now interest rate-wise, the
Fed's unlikely to do anything like raise
rates, but the question will be in the
press conference, what will Kevin War
say? Will he guide to rate hikes later
this year? The markets will be tuned in
just like I will be to look at the data.
So let's jump into the charts here. Here
we have the S&P 500 and again the S&P
500 opened higher last night at 6:00
p.m. Eastern time. Again with oil
dropping substantially. And from the
overnight, we've kind of just gone
sideways to up here, trending higher
with the S&P slated to open up about 60
to 70 points higher. So, again, that's
not 1%, but it's still a very solid move
to the upside. Now, if we flip over to
the daily chart on the S&P, this is
where things get very interesting. So,
here's that big parallel that we were
watching now for the last year or so.
And we noted that again, back here, we
hit the high and that really started the
rollover that led us into the March 2026
pullback, which then we zoomed higher,
we broke out above, but look at how it's
been now acting as support. We did come
down last week. Markets, again,
including the tech stocks, came down
pretty sharply, but we have still not
re-attacked that level and we're slated
to open higher on the S&P today. But,
I'm still watching this very closely.
And again, this is kind of your line in
the sand. As long as the S&P remains
above it, even if it hits it, then
you're in a pattern potential where you
can go higher. But, again, if we were to
break this trend line, that opens a trap
door all the way down to 7,000, which
notice where that line's coming from
right here, the highs from 2026 early in
the year and late 2025, and potentially
a bigger corrective move. So, just based
purely on charts, that is what I'm
watching. And just to rehash here, the
charts really are our best utility uh
play to give us the proper
probabilities. And I say that because if
you had paid attention to comments on
social media last week, late last week,
or even the mainstream media showing all
the bombings going on between the US and
Iran, you would have said, "Oh, man,
oil's going much, much higher." But, the
chart told us that oil was likely going
to pull back, and it did. And when I
play the charts, that's when I most
likely am going to have a win. So,
speaking of oil, let's go to the oil
chart because this really shows us a lot
here.
So, we can see again, oil down today
about 7%. It was down even more earlier
in the day. There's kind of been some
commentary from Iran saying, "Hey, we're
not going to negotiate." which has
helped oil push off of its lows just a
little bit. But, the point is again is
that you have this high pivot going back
to March 9th, which was right around
$120
per barrel, and then we filled the gap
right here
at 67 and change. And if you take your
Fibonacci tool right here, guys, here's
your fib tool, and you click on it, and
you put it at that high, and drag it
down to that low, and just extend it
straight out,
look at where we went on that right to
the 50%
retrace on the fib tool. In addition,
one of the things that caught my
attention, you take that exact high, you
drag it down here, and notice how you
pierced here with wicks, you pierced
here with wicks, you touched exactly
right there, and then look at where
price went to. And one of the things
that I've learned in technical analysis,
in all my years of trading, and with all
my screw-ups in trading, and listen, I
still have screw-ups to this very day
because we are human, and that's just
the nature of probability trading. You
can be the casino, but remember, there's
always going to be a gambler that still
wins. It's just a matter of if a
thousand gamblers come into your casino,
you should really be making money if
you're doing it right as a casino. Okay?
But, the key here again is when you have
two trend lines merging into
um price. So, price is coming into
those, that increases probability that
it's going to be major resistance. In
other words, that if you short it, you
will make money. And that's exactly what
happened right here. Beautiful pullback
on US oil and I did take profits on it.
Now, you might say, "Well, why did I
take profits?" Well, I took it this
morning because when you when you're in
a trade for two or three days and you
get handed a $24,000 plus gain, you
don't really sit there and say, "Oh, but
I'd really like 27,000." You know, I've
learned that money is fleeting. And if
you let greed take advantage of you,
it will take advantage and pull all your
money back away. And so, again, what I
always tell our traders here, and you
guys many times over, and I have traders
all over the world that followed me for
years and years and years, is that I
want to be the guy that goes to the Hall
of Fame for hitting singles and doubles,
the Wade Boggs, if you will, or the Tony
Gwynn. Um, I don't want to be the trader
who is the home run hitter, the Barry
Bonds, Mark McGwire, etc., because those
guys tend to strike out more. If you're
a home run hitter, you're going to
strike out more. You're trying to swing
for the fences. And in trading and
investing,
swinging for the fences can be really
bad for your portfolio. And I've learned
that the hard way. I tried to be a home
run hitter. And I'll tell you, it didn't
work out the best way, that's for sure.
Okay. So, that's where we are on oil,
guys. Again, great pullback on oil.
Basically, I think I netted about
percent on that trade in about three
days on crude oil, which is a great
setup. Um, but going on to 10-year
yields, the 10-year yields are down a
little bit today. So, we closed here on
Friday, we're down just a smidge. And
again, remember why yields tend to come
down when oil comes down. Oil down means
lower expected inflation, and therefore,
the Fed may not have to hike rates,
maybe they can pause, and that brings
inflation down just a little bit. All
right? So, there we have that. If we
look at the dollar today, the DXY, it's
basically flat. It's still hovering
right at this upper band of this
resistance level. A breakout on the
dollar, which is possible, would
generally not be good for equities. So,
again, um there's a lot of selling of
overseas and then repatriating that
money, bringing it back home. There's a
certain amount of loss that comes into
play there, and in general, that's not
great for earnings or for stocks
overall. All right, let's go to a couple
other charts here, guys, as we continue
through. We have Apple. Apple will
report earnings later this week. The
stock is trading up. There's a huge
level of resistance. Notice right off of
this level, we had a pullback off of
that same trend line. And what's amazing
about this trend line, it's worked as
technical support. So, it was support
here, support here, then we broke, now
it's resistance. And so, until proven
otherwise, I look to short Apple.
Basically, today 337
would be an interesting level to short.
Now,
what I want to do with you guys is
really look at the earnings calendar,
because this is where things are going
to get very, very exciting. So, let me
bring up the earnings calendar for us
here. And if we bring this up, this is
on our website, folks. You'll have you
have full access to it. But basically,
what we see here is this morning, we had
AstraZeneca, Baker Hughes, Nokia events.
I mean, those are big companies, don't
get me wrong, but the they are not
market movers. After the bell today,
Applied Applied Digital. That's kind of
a fun one. It's been a wild trading one.
Navitas Semiconductor. That is into
major support. Now, listen, it doesn't
mean it's going to go up on earnings,
but that is into major support.
Celestica's been a big mover. Then
tomorrow morning, PayPal, Boeing, Coke,
UPS, and Corning. Corning is actually
into good support. We'll look at that
chart in just a minute. And Bloom Energy
after the bell on Tuesday, Seagate,
which is a storage technology
semiconductor play, Enphase, KLAC, Visa,
and Ford. Then we have SoFi on Wednesday
morning, VRT, Amphenol, ADP, and Procter
& Gamble. And then the big party starts
here. Wednesday after the close,
Microsoft, Meta, Robinhood, and Arm
Holdings. And then Qualcomm, or excuse
me, that's Wednesday after market. Then
also Qualcomm, Lam Research, Chipotle,
and Starbucks. And then of course, I'll
skip over Thursday morning, even though
there's some big ones there. But Apple
reporting after the bell with Amazon,
that is going to make for wild action.
So,
again, there later this week, there will
be fireworks on earnings. And let's not
forget that the Federal Reserve gives
their statement on Wednesday on interest
rates. And like I said, it's unlikely
that the Fed is going to move interest
rates. It's all about the commentary,
which will then reprice the odds for
where interest rates are going the rest
of the year. Pretty cool stuff. All
right, let's get back to the charts. I
wanted to look at a few more of these
out there. So, we were just looking at
Apple overall. Going into earnings, I
have a slight negative bias because the
stock is up into resistance. So again,
the question is can they deliver uh the
valuation on Apple is getting a little
rich. They've been rewarded because they
haven't spent hundreds of billions of
dollars on CapEx AI, and that has driven
it up. But I'm still skeptical with this
trendline looming here going into
earnings. Microsoft, if we take a look
at this one here, Microsoft's kind of in
no man's land. If it dumps out, I have
good support down here around 347.
Any sort of rally up, you're kind of
looking back at this zone up here. But
it's kind of in the middle zone here on
earnings. And then same thing with Meta.
Meta again is pulled back sharply.
If If it dumps on earnings, there's a
good trend line around 550 right here
that would be a viable level for a
bounce. And then, if it shoots up, we
have a very good zone of resistance
here. And then, also a descending trend
line in that same zone. And you can see,
again, it could drop here, could drop
here. And you're right. Am I saying it
could go either way? Absolutely, because
in this case, it could. And if I had
insider information, I'd tell you
exactly and say, "Hey guys, they're
going to beat earnings." Are they going
to you know
But, as a trader, sometimes a chart just
says, "Hey listen, there's no good
probability here." And if you don't
listen to it, then you're just stupid,
frankly. You just got to say, "Okay,
there's no good probability. I'll sit on
the sidelines. I'll wait for the
reaction, and then I'll trade it." You
know, you don't have to be in a trade.
You know, believe it or not, cash is a
position. In fact, it's a great
position, because when a great
opportunity comes,
you can jump on it. I've been in
situations in my career in my early
career where, you know, I still remember
I dabbled in like real estate, buying
some land and some lots. And I was like,
"Oh, I'll build." And then, all of a
sudden, I was like, "Oh man, this great
investment came up."
And I was like, "Well, how do How fast
can I unload this land?" And the answer
was, "It's not super liquid." And I
missed that opportunity because I had
allocated too much of my capital to that
as an investment. And then, when the
great thing came up, I didn't have the
cash on the sidelines. And so, these are
the types of things that I've learned
the hard way. And I'm not saying you
guys don't have to learn the hard way. A
lot of times, you know, just like kids,
you know, you tell them that it's a hot
stove, and they still have to touch it
to really find out. But, I do hope that
some of this information um helps you
just a little bit. Speaking of helping,
let's talk about the Rumble wallet,
guys. They are a sponsor here. Rumble
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accounts, credit card, etc. All of that
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then of course, we have a code a coupon
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they'll get it to you guys. They are a
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it out. The description in the
description is the link and I thank
Rumble for being an awesome sponsor of
the Game Plan and verifiedinvesting.com.
All right, back to the charts we go.
Let's cover in. This is the one I was
telling you about. They report earnings
on let me see, it's on Tuesday
pre-market. So, tomorrow. Look at the
drop in this thing, guys. It has
collapsed. I am going to be watching any
sort of downside action to three 135.
I'm likely going to start accumulating.
I'll leave some room so I can add a
little bit lower if it comes lower to
these levels, but this drop is very
enticing as GLW is part of the picks and
shovels of the AI boom. And again, the
AI boom, we heard from Alphabet last
week and Tesla. Their cap ex is going
up. It's not going down. And so, while I
am generally net bearish on things like
the memory stocks because competition is
going to crush them, GLW
there are some competitors out there,
but it's the build out is massive. It's
a lot more complex than just a memory
card or memory for some of this stuff.
So, just keep that in mind. So, again, I
am an intrigued buyer here. Now, let's
move on guys to gold. Gold today
initially re-attacking the upper
resistance line of the wedge pattern and
backing off. Gold up about .8% today.
Nothing new to report here. I'm just
waiting as a trader to see which way it
breaks. Does it break out or does it
break down? And then silver
up a little bit, but silver to me still
looks very weak. I mean, it's got all
this resistance up between 63 and 66.
It's got to get through that before I
really start to get bullish on silver
and it continues to chop and consolidate
down in the lower ranges.
Natural gas is pushing lower today. Now,
this is interesting guys because nat gas
it's still kind of in that bearish flag
and it's trying to start to break down.
Watch this closely to see if it breaks
here. If it does, I would say that 268
is your likely next target. And then
lastly, Bitcoin guys, Bitcoin always fun
to look at. Upticked over the weekend
coming in a little bit today. Your big
breakpoint now is 67,000. If it breaks
through there, you should see an easy
move to 71 to 72,000. But right now,
high pivot, pullback, up consolidation
and it tagged it, pulled back. Can we
get through this 67,000 level? That is
your level to watch on Bitcoin. I remain
bullish near-term on Bitcoin even though
I still think there's another eventual
flush out on Bitcoin even lower. All
right, that's the game plan for today
guys. You are awesome. Your kind words,
your comments. If you took that oil
trade and made some money, comment and
let us know as well guys. Make sure to
like and subscribe. Support us here at
Verified Investing in our no BS
approach. Charts, data, probabilities.
That's it. I don't want to know what's
being BS'd on social media, just the
data. Have a great rest of your day
guys. I'll talk to you soon. Take care.