My Trading Game Plan | July 28, 2026

My name is Gareth Soloway and I was a
losing trader until I mastered [music]
technical analysis. Logic and charts
beat hype and narratives every time. Now
I teach investors the same techniques
that made me a multimillionaire. [music]
This is my trading game plan.
Good morning everybody. Welcome to my
trading game plan. My name is Gareth
Soloway, chief market strategist here
and in today's episode what we're going
to look at is what is going on with the
semiconductors. Of course, we'll look at
gold and silver, oil, natural gas,
Bitcoin even, but the semiconductor
story is taking the lead. The key here
is competition, something I warned about
a couple months ago when we were at the
highs on the semiconductors. When you
have any product that carries 80-100%
margins, other players are going to say,
"Oh, wow, that's great. I got to make
some of that so I can get a piece of the
pie." And that is what's starting to
happen and we're seeing it coming out of
China, which makes a lot of sense as
things get going here. So, let's take a
look at this and see exactly what is
going on. You have a chip China chip
breakthrough impact on semiconductor.
So, we had a semiconductor sector that
was overbought. People said it would
never end. This was a new paradigm. It
was a new period. And ultimately now
we're seeing two companies in China that
are taking the headlines. Shanghai Yulan
Xiang is producing the lithography uh
basically machines that is exactly what
ASML does. Not the highest end model
that they do, but nonetheless, it is
showing that the Chinese are coming fast
and furiously with technology that is
going to compete and drive margins down.
And that is scaring markets. We also saw
CXMT
IPO in Shanghai yesterday or 2 days ago
and that stock was up 466%
and they literally make the memory chips
that Micron and SanDisk make. So,
it's coming, folks. And this is one of
the reasons why when we saw Micron
trading at a PE of eight, and people
said, "Wow, it's so cheap." I said, "No,
in in expansionary periods, in good
periods, you actually sell Micron and
chip stocks when the PE gets low because
it's at the height of margins, meaning
their profits are the biggest." As soon
as other players jump in and start
producing, then those margins get
crushed and the stock gets crushed. You
actually want to buy Micron when the PE
is the worst, when it's high. And again,
that's history, just studying history.
But again, most investors don't look at
history. They get caught up in the hype.
And this is where the data from Verified
Investing is so insightful. So, that's
what we have here, folks. And again, we
are seeing a lot of fear in the markets.
The S&P 500 itself is hanging in there
basically flat in the morning session,
but if we go to the Nasdaq, this is
where we're seeing the bigger drop. The
daily candle on the Nasdaq futures is
down 3/4 of a percent, and that is
continuing to look weak. Look at the
drop on the Nasdaq futures on the daily
chart just since the peak over here. I
mean, it is a now about a 9% decline on
the Nasdaq. Do I think it has more
downside? I'll tell you this, folks.
Today is going to be pivotal.
And I mean pivotal in that if the
markets end lower, I think we're going
to continue lower for at least another
1,500 to 2,000 points on the Nasdaq to
the downside. If the Nasdaq can hold
this key trend line I'm about to show
you, then we should get a bounce. So,
this trend line, this pivot line is
going to be everything. Let's take a
look at it right now. Flipping back to
the charts, and let's look at the Nasdaq
right here, the as composite, all right?
So, what we're seeing here, and I want
to draw this in for you, is we have this
trend line, and again, I'm trying to get
it. I think it's on the QQQ. Yep, there
it is. This is the one right here on the
Nasdaq 100. High pivot from the bull
market of 2021 to the high pivot here in
October of 2025, and look what we hit
yesterday. Now, today, we're going to
set to open lower, but remember, it's
just the open. It's not the close. We
need to watch where this closes. If it
can hold the line, if we rally back up
and close above this line or on this
line, then I think you get a continued
multi-day bounce, decent bounce in the
markets. If we close below it, I'd be
very concerned that the Nasdaq is
beginning a much bigger correction to
the former highs from 2025 and early
2026, which would bring the Nasdaq
decline from peak to trough all the way
down to about 15%.
So, keep that on your radar, guys. This
is a big day for the Nasdaq. Now,
other stories hitting the wires. So,
number one, oil not a big event today.
Um overnight, we saw oil down. That was
after the president, President Trump,
said that negotiations were going again
with Iran, and then oil started to rally
back up to the flat line when Iran
denied that claim. So, again, it's that
back and forth. One says this, the other
says that, and now we're back to kind of
this who knows, but oil is holding
steady around or just above $80 a
barrel. But, the key is earnings. We're
now in earning season, and earnings are
coming fast and furiously. The big story
of the morning was Corning. Now, Corning
is related to the AI trade because it
does the fiber optic glass that's the
build-out of the data centers. And
Corning today is getting absolutely
annihilated here on a drop. Their
earnings were good, but their guidance
was slightly weak. And we know how this
market works, guys. If a company like
IBM, remember IBM dropped 25% when they
warned about their earnings, if you
don't come out with blockbuster numbers,
this market punishes the stock. And
that's where we are. Now, I will say
this, Corning is down significantly and
it was already down significantly on the
daily chart. I'm actually looking at
potentially nibbling just a little bit
on a quick trade, maybe a day trade
today, maybe nibbling on a swing trade.
Let's take a look. The stock is right
now down about 17%
in pre-market action. Now, if we go to
this chart here, you can see look at how
big of a drop we've already seen on GLW,
which is Corning, and now we're gapping
down here to about 120. Now, what's
interesting about that is you have a
very big support right at 120, right
here. And so, let's watch very closely.
Can GLW hold the 120 level? If it does,
this actually has significant upside. I
would think back to almost 148.
And again, this will be amazingly
important for today's trading action.
Which again, look at where the pivot
point to this low, and look at where
we're currently trading on GLW. And just
to put it in perspective, where we're
currently trading, GLW has declined 56%
from highs just seen basically 1 month
ago, not even 1 month ago. Think about
that, guys. We are watching a crash. You
can't say it any other way. It is a
crash in the AI-related stocks. In a
month when these companies that are 100
billion, 200 billion, 300, half a
trillion dollars drop 50% market cap in
1 month, that is a crash. And do I think
it's over? No, but I'm actually scoping
out longs here because we're coming into
major technical levels. Speaking of
which, let's go back to the charts, take
a look at SanDisk. SanDisk is trading
right at a key gap fill at 1180. If it
goes down, you could see a little bit
further, but it's getting into levels
now where it's getting attractive. In
addition, look at the drop here.
If we look at where it's currently
trading, it is now down 50%
same thing in basically 1 month's time.
That is incredible, folks. There's no
other way to describe it. Absolutely
incredible downside moves. For me, that
was through the dot-com bubble and
through the 2008-2009
financial crisis, I expected it. I
warned about it. People made fun of me
for warning about it, but it has
happened and we've seen this massive
decline. Now, when I say I'm looking to
buy, please understand I'm not looking
to go long and hold and walk away. Now,
granted, I'm not a long-term investor,
granted, but I still think these stocks
go lower, but it doesn't mean you're not
going to get 20-30% bounces off key
technical levels. And as a swing trader,
that's my bread and butter. That is
amazing stuff here. So, GLW looks good
down here at 120. SanDisk, I'm beginning
to look to nibble at around this 1180
level, but when I say nibble, I mean I'm
ready to add another $50 down, another
$50 down. Ultimately, I see SanDisk
going in the next month or two down to
pierce 1,000. There's a confluence of
major levels there. But in this 1180
level, I think we can get a bounce back
to 1,400, maybe 1,500. I think that is
possible. Okay.
So, that stock's intriguing. Micron is
down today as well. If Micron dumps out,
there's a huge gap fill at $750,
so I'll keep that on my radar as well.
Big, big, big level there. Um so again,
just keep that there. And then we have
ASML, which is the one where that China
stock is or company is now starting to
make those lithography
you know, manufacturing systems. And
that stock is down again today. You can
see the drop here. Where is this going
to get interesting? There should be big
support right in here. So I would say
anywhere between 1,500 and 1,475.
Pivot highs across the board. If this
were to dump into that 1,500 level, I
would expect a technical level to bounce
here. All right. So again, not ready to
buy yet on ASML. I would say that
SanDisk is beginning to get nibblish in
terms of small positioning here, but
very small because you have to be ready
for the fear trade to take over. And one
thing to mention here folks is the
leverage in the semiconductors was
almost unparalleled. And so that unwind
alone is part of the reason why these
things have fallen, but it's also one of
the reasons why they went up so much.
Right? The leverage. People were saying,
"Oh, for every $100, I'm going to buy
$300 of SanDisk." So that unwind is
adding to the pressure here. You have
margin calls, all these other things
going on. And again, you can see by the
way, you can see the sentiment in
SpaceX. I mean, SpaceX is a great
example here of how sentiment has
changed overall. I mean, look at SpaceX.
It's now below $110 per share. And this
should go down. I think they have
earnings next week, but I think this
goes down to basically 100 bucks. I
might nibble at a pierce of $100. So
keep that in mind there as well.
All right. So that's where we're
watching. Now, on the other side, we've
talked a lot about stocks that are
dropping that look like good buys. Now I
want to talk about a few stocks that are
rallying today. Now I'm not ready to
short these stocks. Please be aware,
except for Apple. Apple's a different
case. I actually like Apple above 340 as
a trade to the downside. But what I'm
talking about is the software names.
Microsoft, Meta, Oracle. Oracle's down a
little bit today, but had a great day
yesterday. These beaten-down software
hyperscalers, they actually look like
they're getting some money flow. So, I
think that's where we're going to
continue to see until the the changeover
goes back to buy semiconductors, these
names, and you can see Microsoft here
trading around 395 in the pre-market.
That's up about $6. And if we look at
Meta, Meta's also, after this big drop
pullback, Meta's gapping up just a
little bit as well. are the names. I
continue to like Oracle. I think that
the negativity on Oracle has been so
dramatic. You can see this drop from
$250 down to the recent low of 115. I
still expect a snapback to about $140
on Oracle. Again, when that happens, I
don't know. Uh is it possible it could
go lower? Sure, anything is possible.
Remember, I live in a world of
probabilities, not certainties. Okay.
Let's continue on here, folks. Um so,
again, earnings this morning, we had
UPS. UPS reported earnings. That stock
is trading down. Look at that, it was
actually up, and now it is starting to
fall. That is not a pretty drop on that.
So, again, this likely has to do with
guidance being released. Their earnings
were actually pretty good. Their
guidance was pretty good, too. But
something here in the conference call is
scaring people away. be watching the 103
level, right here. Pivot low, pivot low,
for a potential day trade on this stock.
Now, PayPal reported earnings this
morning. That stock is fractionally
higher. I'm not interested in trading
PayPal today. Number one, it's not
making a big move. Number two, there was
a buyout offer on the stock. And so, you
have price generally pegged around that
price. Um so, it's just not going to
have the same volatility that I would
want in a trade. Um we talked about GLW.
Boeing reported earnings this morning.
That stock is trading basically flat to
slightly positive. And Coca-Cola, good
old trusty Coke, is actually having a
great morning on earnings. This has
been, remember guys, I've talked about
Con- Conagra to you guys. Pays like an
almost 10% dividend. They did do a
dividend cut, but still a great
dividend, and that stock has been
rocking recently. Rocking. And again,
finally getting a payout on CAG. Look at
the daily chart on this. Look at that
bottom, and it just continues to move up
now from the 12 and 1/2 to 15 and 1/2
level. That's a nice about 25%
gain or so there. All right. After the
bell today, we have names like Bloom
Energy, Seagate Technologies, Enphase.
Those will be some names that I watch
after the bell today to see where we go.
Now, let's turn our attention to gold
and silver and see where they are. Gold
is down today, so again, it's getting
squeezed tighter and tighter in the
wedge pattern. The question here is
which way does it break? I'm just
waiting patiently to see. If it breaks
to the downside, I think 3,500 is
reasonable to see. If it breaks to the
upside, we could head back to 4,500. So,
waiting patiently to watch and see which
way it breaks. But look at that wedge.
Isn't that an incredible wedge? And look
at how price has respected the upper
band of the wedge and the lower band.
This is one of the best wedges I've
almost ever seen in any chart. And here
it is in gold. So, that's it's really,
you know, as a technician who respects
and admires the chart how charts behave,
it's pretty darn cool. It's like, you
know, that that's cool. And anyways,
let's move on to silver. Silver is down
as well. Silver continues to be a
concern to me. It's just going sideways
below resistance and this line as well
with downside support to 54, which is
not that much lower. But again, the
question is does it hold 54? It never
fully tagged it. It got about 77 cents
away from my key level, then it got a
little bounce. The question is does Does
flush, tag it, and then if it tags, it
does it pierce and try to tag that $50
level. All right? Uh oil today, I talked
about this earlier, guys. Oil is flat to
negative. Great drop yesterday again. I
had called for that for with my short
trade right up here. Again, I'm out of
that trade at this point. Could get a
little bit more downside, but now it
becomes that kind of cat and mouse.
Like, is there negotiations? Is there
not negotiations? What's going on? And
so, oil is just going to get a lot more
volatile. Like, not volatile in big
moves, but just more choppy. And choppy
as a as a swing trader or day trader,
that means uh it's not good for me. You
know, I need to see those bigger
potential moves into major support or
resistance, not sideways chop. All
right, natural gas broke down yesterday.
It continues to break down. Look at that
drop on that gas. And again, up-sloping
ascending trend line. We kind of came
down. We talked about how this was
concerning. It almost looked like a
little bear flag. And finally, we're
seeing that downside move. So, right
now, this has a negative bias. Now,
listen, there's not a ton of downside,
only down to here around this 270 268
level. But right now, that is a trend
line break. And then, we have Bitcoin.
Bitcoin, honestly, even though Bitcoin's
off of its recent highs, considering
what's happening to the semiconductors
in the tech trade, Bitcoin to me is
holding up well. And I still am
optimistic based on the chart action
that there could be one more move up to
71 to 72,000 on Bitcoin. Obviously, I
got to maintain and watch these pivot
points that I have on the charts. Does
it break them or does it hold them?
Right now, it's holding and it's
performing relatively well compared to
the S&P and the Nasdaq. Really, if you
look at Bitcoin and even compare it to
gold and silver and the stock market,
Bitcoin arguably has been the best
performer since June. Since June. Now,
before that, it was atrocious. But since
June June, it's actually outperformed
the Nasdaq and the S&P, as well as gold
and silver. All right, I got to get to
my trading room, guys. As always,
awesome to be with you and give you the
updates, the charts, the levels that I'm
watching. I will keep you posted. So,
stay tuned later today trading the close
with Drew Dosik, who's one of my top
traders here at 4:20. He'll do a live
summary and analysis of the markets. And
of course, Monday through Friday 9:00
a.m. I'm here for you guys. And that's
that's the truth. You guys are what
matter. Have a great rest of your day,
guys. Take care.