My Trading Game Plan | July 29, 2026

My name is Gareth Soloway and I was a
losing trader until I mastered technical
[music] analysis. Logic and charts beat
hype and narratives every time. Now I
teach investors the same techniques
[music] that made me a
multi-millionaire. This is my trading
game plan.
Good morning everybody. Welcome to my
trading game plan. My name is Gareth
Soloway, chief market strategist here at
verifiedinvesting.com.
Today is an epic day. We have the
Federal Reserve announcement at 2:00
p.m. Eastern time followed by the press
conference. Now this is a unique
announcement and the reason why it's
unique is the odds of whether or not the
Fed will hike rates are not as low as
they normally are. Usually by the day
of, it's almost zero chance that they're
going to do anything other than what the
market expects. But take a look at this.
This is fascinating guys. The Fed rate
hike, there is a 38%
chance as of now and obviously numbers
will adjust over the course of the day.
38% chance that they're going to hike.
Now I don't think they will. You can see
there's a 62% chance that they will hold
rates steady. That is what I expect, but
it is worth just taking it into account,
right? I mean we have to be aware that
there is a chance for a curveball. And
so really, if we got a curveball, I
think it would unnerve unnerve the
markets. Um, I think the market wants
slow and steady Jerome Powell while
Kevin Warsh is more about not giving
enough information, not giving too much
information, and keeping the markets a
little bit more on their toes. And I
think that can be something that worries
the market just a little bit. So, again,
looking at this graphic, you can see
right now current rate target is 3.5 to
3.75. If hiked, it would go up to 3.75
to 4%. The decision is at 2:00 p.m.
We'll know there, and then the press
conference will be at 2:30 p.m. And that
will be a big event for the markets.
Now, it's not the only event today.
After hours, we're going to have Meta
and Microsoft reporting earnings. We're
going to get also a bunch of
semiconductor stocks to report after
hours. So, there will be fireworks there
as well. Now, speaking of fireworks, SK
Hynix, which is that monster company
over on the Kospi in South Korea, they
reported last night, and the stock
initially flushed, then went green, and
is now basically trading around the flat
line. That's keeping semis in a mixed
picture here as we go into the open.
But, let's get into the S&P futures and
kind of take a look at what we see. The
S&P futures, you can see yesterday we
closed right around here. This is all
your overnight action. So, you can see
again, initially the futures fell on SK
Hynix, then popped up overall, then kind
of faded as in the overnight the semis
sold off. Now, what's interesting about
this, and you can see again where the we
are. We were up a little bit on the S&P.
We've now gone negative on the futures
going into the trading open. But,
overnight it was a wild ride led by the
South Korean stock market, which for the
second day in a row got halted with
limit down. And so now, and this is this
drives me nuts. So,
there are officials over there that are
now saying, "Hey, we're going to have an
emergency meeting. The stock market has
come down so much." And I'll show the
chart of the Kospi in just a second.
But, it's like, "Dude, the market ran up
incredibly for months and months and
months, and now it's having a normal
correction, and now you're worried about
it?" Well, it's like, "What did you
expect to happen?" When bubbles form,
they have massive corrections. So, let's
go to that chart, in fact. Let's go to
the Kospi and take a look here,
and I'll show you what I mean. And if we
go to the daily chart of the Kospi, this
is the chart, right? Now again, this is
a nasty collapse on this stock market
over there. From peak to trough, 44%
decline, closed in the overnight down
about 40%. Now, normally we'd all be
saying, "Oh my goodness, that is an
absolute crash." But, remember, there
are two stocks on that stock market that
make up over 50% of that entire index.
And they've all both of those stocks
have gone up hundreds of percentage
points in the last year, like 400%. So,
it's like, you know, even if you correct
44% or 40%, you're still up in the last
year well over 100% and you could see
that on the chart here. Look at this
run. I mean, this is incredible. If we
just take where we were in April of
2025, so just over a year ago to the
highs, it was up 300%.
Now, what I like to do is I like to do
my fibs. I say, "Okay, well, what if we
take a fib here and you could see we've
pierced the 50% retrace with the 618
right here. And so, for me, this is a
huge viable opportunity on the Kospi and
the likely we're very close to major
bounces in some of our semiconductors
here. Now again, I inched in a little
bit yesterday on some semiconductors
that were down big, but I will continue
to do that today and it's not believe
because I believe that the correction is
over.
I just think we're due for a 20 to 30%
bounce and as a swing trader, I want to
take advantage of that, right? But
really remarkable. But going back to
what's going on over there, it's that,
you know, when you have a market that
goes up 300% in a year,
you know, you're going to have a
correction, especially when it's so
concentrated that two stocks make up
over 50% of that index. So again, to
have all these emergency meetings about
this, oh my goodness. And by the way,
what they're blaming, which is valid, is
double and triple ETFs. They launched
all these double and triple ETFs, which
are great on the upside, right? Cuz if
someone buys it, then that ETF has to
buy three shares of the underlying
asset, like the semiconductors. But you
know what happens? Is if it's really
causes a massive move up because people
are buying this and they have to buy
three shares, guess what happens on the
way down? It's kind of like, "Duh." Like
you didn't think this was a possibility?
Like no offense, but how dumb can they
be? And how dumb can you Listen, we have
the same problem here in the US, which
is very, very scary. We're just more
diversified than two stocks equaling
50%. Now again, crazy stuff, guys. All
right. Oil is the other headline today.
Oil is big here, guys. This is actually
putting pressure on why the S&P futures
are rolling over a little bit this
morning. Oil is trading up about 7%. Now
you guys know we shorted it up here. I
took my profits right down here. It went
a little bit lower. Now it's moving up.
Many people are already asking me, am I
inclined to short oil again? The answer
is no. I do not have a good read.
Remember, when I shorted it, I had a 50%
fib retrace and I had a major trend
line, two factors. In technical analysis
here at Verified Investing, we always
look for every trade to have at minimum
two factors. They have to be different
factors. Um what we found statistically,
and remember, Verified Investing is all
charts, no BS, essentially data-based,
is that when you have two factors that
are legitimate based on the winning
trader series that I put out, uh that's
on my course, is that you have about a
75% chance of success. Not 100%, there's
no such thing. But if I can win three
out of every four times, it's golden.
And essentially, that's what we're
seeing here or what we saw on oil, so I
took the trade. I don't have that now.
There's not I I you might get one
factor, but not two factors. And I want
that second factor. So oil bouncing up
here beautifully. Um it is putting a
little pressure on the S&P this morning
as we saw the futures rolling over, but
no trade for me. But essentially what's
going on here is the bombs are flying
again. The US is attacking Iran, Iran
shooting missiles back, and you had a
couple days of calm. Now we're back to
basically fighting again between the two
countries, and that is pushing up oil.
So we'll see where that goes. Again, I
don't really expect oil to go
significantly higher, but what we are
looking at here, folks, is you could
make a case that we're now starting to
create a wedge pattern. So we can
connect this low down here, and we could
start to see that if we extend this out
at some point in the future, right?
Let's just draw these lines and continue
to bring them down and up, is that this
will continue to compress, right? And
eventually we're going to have to see
either a breakout to the upside or the
downside. So again, that's how wedges
work, right? They they compress prices
price like a pressure cooker, and then
ultimately, whenever it makes that
bigger move, it's usually a big breakout
or breakdown. So I'll keep that on my
radar. All right, let's get into some
earnings. We'll get back to the
commodities in just a little bit of
time.
This is Bloom Energy. Bloom Energy
again, big pop on earnings after the
bell in the overnight was basically
trading sideways, but look at the daily
chart on this. The stock had collapsed,
and we're talking a massive collapse
here of essentially 55%
in a month. And so again, think about
the bar being lowered. When you're at
all-time highs,
you have to come out and beat earnings
and say the most amazing things. I often
use the the analogy of like you
essentially have to cure cancer to keep
going up. Once you've corrected 55%,
the bar is lowered. Now they still
reported great earnings and raised
guidance, which is why the stock is up,
but again, it just shows you how
expectations were lowered. The other
thing to point out, and this is why we
had it in smart money stocks and ETFs as
a long even going into earnings, look at
all this technical support. 55% drop
into all of that, guess what?
Probability 75% or greater of a bounce,
and it got that bounce. By the way, I
already took my money off the table on
that trade. Not to say it can't go
higher, but listen, no I'm not going to
look a gift horse in the mouth. Great
gains in a short period of time, I'm
out. All right, other stocks. STX, this
is a semiconductor memory play. Great
earnings, they raised guidance. Big pop
initially on earnings, overnight it kind
of chopped around. Still trading up
about 5 to 6% in the pre-market. Is
there a trade here? We look at the daily
chart. Not really. I mean, aggressive
traders gap fill at 8:14, 8:15, but it's
been beaten down as well, so I'm not as
interested in that. Um SK Hynix, here we
go. So, SK Hynix last night reported
earnings, the stock flushed,
then popped and went green, then went
even lower in the overnight, and is now
stabilized. Basically, if you look at
where it closed yesterday for the
trading session, it closed right here.
So, it's down just fractionally in the
morning session. Now, this is going to
be interesting because if this starts
dumping, we're going to see all the
semiconductors drop. And that's where we
start to get into some major technical
levels. By the way, the daily chart of
SK Hynix since it essentially came
public is not pretty much like SpaceX,
but it just shows that investors are not
willing to wait around and hold these
things. They take their money and run.
But, SanDisk. Look at this. Now again,
SanDisk right now trading around the
flatline pre-market, but look at these
three trendlines converging right around
this level. All right, that is very
interesting to me. You have a horizontal
line here, slight ascending trendline
high pivot to high pivot, and sharper
ascending trend line here. They all are
right in this zone. In other words, if
if Sandisk pushes down here, I believe
as a swing trade it's a strong buy. Now,
just because I believe it doesn't make
it mean it's going to be a success, but
again,
we talked about multiple factors. So, my
job is never and I and listen, you got
to learn this the hard way. I I have to
learn this the hard way. There's no sure
thing in trading. And I think we all
know that. I very rarely that you've
ever find someone that hasn't taken a
loss. And if they say they haven't, you
got to be like, "Hm, okay, sure." You
know, like that's yeah.
But, the point is again is that that's a
level where Sandisk would be down like
60% from its highs,
and I wouldn't think it's not going to
go lower later on, but for a good 20-30%
bounce, that's what I'm looking at. If
we get down there, I think you have a
great chance at a bounce back to about
1285 to 1300 from a thousand pierce. All
right, on to the next one here, guys.
SoFi reported earnings this morning.
That stock is down a little bit, not a
huge move, but a decent move. If we look
at the daily chart, again, there'll be
some support right here at the lows
around $15 pierce. As a day trade, I'm
intrigued by that, but as a swing trade,
I will not go near this in the near
term. Um, just not a big enough fan of
the chart yet. Don't have enough factors
overall. But, that 15 pierce level is
intriguing. VRT, big flush on earnings.
It has recovered quite a bit. That takes
a little bit of the opportunity away
from us, but again,
there's going to be a big gap window
around 231 right here.
And then if it fills the gap, this is
where I actually would consider a swing
trade. It's such a major you have a
pivot high and a gap fill right there,
right around a 200 even number pierce.
That would be a multi-factor level. That
would be my swing trade level. All
right, so again,
a going on. We've seen this happen over
and over again. You've got again oil
popping. We have earnings coming out. We
have the Federal Reserve today. Uh
semiconductors continue to generally be
under pressure or close to their lows,
but really are either hitting or
knocking very close to very key support.
And what I love about the semi trade,
you guys know I was hating on the semi
trade. When SanDisk was north of 2000, I
was like, "Guys,
get the heck out. This is the scariest
thing. This is a bubble. It's going to
collapse." Well, guess what? Now we're
down 50 50 55% potentially going down
60%. Now, we've seen the mass greed that
told me that, "Oh, no, Micron, you know,
at an 8 PE, it can't go down." I'm like,
"Yeah, but
that's when it does go down. It's
because when margins are highest, that's
when PE is going to be lowest. When
margins compress and come down, that's
when the PE goes up. And you actually
want to buy it at the worst PE. It's
very counterintuitive to a normal
company because it's a cyclical company.
Cyclical stocks you have to be careful
of. And that's this situation with
Micron, SanDisk, and these others. But
ultimately, we're now getting to very
fearful in the semis, which you guys
know me, I start to get slightly more
bullish. Once I see people panicking,
blood in the streets as they say, uh
hating on these things, that's when I
start to say, "Hmm, let's let's look at
the charts. Let's see if we have two
factors." Cuz then with that sentiment,
it creates a bounce opportunity. All
right. Let's look at gold real quick.
Gold is down slightly today, creeping
down just a tiny bit. Incredible wedge
just continues here. I mean, this is
remarkable to see this wedge just
holding to such an incredible point
here. Again, basically by August 14th,
we're going to have to see a breakout.
And that's only 2 weeks away now. We're
basically nearing August per I think
Saturday is August 1st. So, this is
going to make a move in the next 2
weeks, guys. And it should be a big
move. Um again, which way it goes, let's
let the chart tell us. Silver,
not such a good chart. It's already kind
of moved a little bit lower. It's been
sideways chop. As of now, I would favor
a move down. But like I said, we are
very close. Like for me, listen, I'm not
going to pretend to be able to know
exactly where the bottom is on silver or
gold. But, I know where I start to inch
into the position. And really anything
around 50 bucks to me on silver is a
starter position. Anything below every X
amount of dollars, I'll just accumulate.
And same thing with gold. Gold gets down
towards that 3,500 level, and I'm just
going to start slowly legging in. Again,
the mindset of a great trader is not to
hit the exact bottom and go all in.
Those are those are unfortunately the
traders that lose all their money.
A great trader, a Warren Buffett, uh you
know, these other great hedge fund
managers out there, they start small
positions. If the thesis is still there
and it goes against them, they keep
adding as long as the thesis holds. We
can learn a lot from that, folks. It
took me a long time and so many errors.
So, don't feel bad if you've had a ton
of mess-ups. We've all done it. Trust
me. I've been I'm I'm like the worst. I
you know, 27 years it's taken me. And
listen, I I was good 5 years ago, but
I'm saying,
you know, if you're like 2 years in, 5
years into your investing career, and
you're still struggling a little bit,
totally normal. Took me longer. So,
you're on a good pace. I'll put it to
you that way. Okay. Um
natural gas here, guys. Let's take a
look at that. It is getting a small
bounce. I was looking at this and this
this natural gas chart is not the spot
natural gas. And I want to start using
this one because this one is the one
that actually is the spot, the
Pepperstone here. This is the one that
I'm more intrigued on because this one
actually has a better trendline for us.
And spot price is much more important to
me. So, it could still come down again
250-60 to this trend line here versus
the other chart is made up of other
things. So, I'm going to try to use the
Pepperstone from now on as our go-to for
this. But again, this down here would be
your next support around 256 to 255 on
natural gas. Bitcoin inching up a little
bit today. It's still holding up in this
upper range here. Again, if we look at
these lows kind of down here, you kind
of want to see it hold this 62-563,000
level and eventually break above 70-67.
If it does that, next target is 71. So
again, overall I still like the chart of
Bitcoin and I'm still optimistic that it
still has a potential upside move. But
remember,
I'm beholden to the charts. So, whatever
I like is based currently on what the
chart is showing us. Every day we get a
new daily candle. If one daily candle
breaks a level, it's like, "Okay, well,
the view has to change." Those of us
that hold our views no matter what the
charts do, and and I can speak from
experience again on this, those are the
ones that are our biggest losses. And
I've had many of those and even to this
day I still have a few of those. I mean,
it's just you
Unfortunately, we're human. All right,
in any case, you guys are rockstars for
hanging with me, watching my game plans
every day.
I can't tell you how much we appreciate
here at Verified Investing the support,
the the positivity you guys bring. So,
thank you again, guys, and as always, we
try to bring our A game. We're not
always going to be right, but we're
going to do it off data and charts, not
nonsense and narratives. Have a great
rest of your day, guys. Thanks again for
tuning in. Take