Trading The Close | July 29, 2026

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>> Hello everybody. Welcome to Trading the
Close. My name is Drew Dosik and guys,
what a day we had today. The FOMC
finally came out with the decision. We
anticipated a high percent chance that
the rate was going to stay the same this
meeting. That's exactly what happened.
It was a 9 to 3 vote. Three of the
members of the Federal Reserve did
decide to go ahead and want to rate a
want to see hikes on the rates, but then
the other nine wanted to keep them the
same. That was really the only
disagreements that occurred. Aside from
that, there was a lot of talking that
Kevin Warsh did, but he really didn't
say a lot to be quite honest. There was
a 2% target that they're going to try to
stick to and he also said it will take
time given that we've had elevated
inflation for that to come down to the
2% target. So, we'll see eventually how
we get there. First, the initial
response was a rocket ship up because
the markets took this, as you know, the
markets are going to behave how they
will and price in where the rates should
be and that's kind of what Kevin Warsh
was saying. We're going to let the
markets decide instead of trying to pin
the markets down to what our
expectations are. The markets like that
at first, but then they quickly realized
there's still that 2% target. There's
still a chance that the markets are on
choppy ground. So, let's get into some
charts. We got some viewer requests. We
got earnings popping off. We got the war
escalating in the Middle East. We got a
lot of stuff to go over. First off,
let's start on the S&P 500, guys. Look
at this nasty red candle sell. We've
been hanging out up here for the
previous four days and I had said, "If
we come down to this line, since we've
been consolidating so close, we really
got a good shot at breaking through the
line." And that's exactly what happened
today into the 10-minute chart. You can
see price tested this trend line in the
middle of the day, then bounced up into
the FOMC. And right here at 2:00 was the
initial announcement, and then the
meeting started at 2:30, the conference.
And that's when everything started
rocketing up until 2:50, and then look
at the slip and slide right back down on
the charts, closing the day in the
negative, down 1.54%,
but still nasty close. So, for tomorrow,
now that we've broken back down inside
this parallel channel, to remind you too
where this parallel comes from, it comes
from all the way back here in the
October 2022 lows. So, now that you can
see price getting within that, will we
confirm tomorrow? Meaning, will we get a
lower close than the low today? And if
so, that makes this area in the top of
the parallel resistance to march back up
through. Now, we can get through these
trend lines, but it likely will take
more effort and more time to get through
it if we close lower tomorrow. Next
support on the SPY down here at $710.31.
Next up, nasty day on the QQQ, which is
the Nasdaq 100, down over 2% yesterday,
did a mighty job holding onto support
here at $674.90.
Today, it said, "Not today, can't hold
this pull-up bar." Coming down to the
next support level at $652.13.
Keep in mind, though, one day down under
that support, much like how we broke
this trend line, eventually, when we do
catch support, we likely are going to
head right back up and test this trend
line here at $695.
And you may say, "Well, Drew, when's
that going to happen?" Well, let's look
at the SMH for guidance. The SMH, as I
said here, guys, many, many times, is
the leading indicator for me, because
usually when folks are jumping into the
SMH, it's risk-on scenario. When they're
exiting, guys, watch out, because the
rest of the markets are starting to do
either rotation or the high flyers are
in deep trouble. All right, so in this
scenario with the AI data data center
build out, clearly this has been a very
nice decline from the pivot high that we
had just most recently to the now lows,
we're down 24.87%.
So, when are we going to find a bounce?
We're now into all different levels of
this previous parallel. Matter of fact,
I was thinking price had a good shot at
bouncing off this 50% area of the
parallel today until we had Kevin Walsh
come out and really wreck that party.
So, that tells me the next area of
support is likely the bottom of this
parallel channel at 475.75.
Now, what would that do with the current
drop? That would put us down roughly 29%
before we had a bounce. Let's see if
that sounds realistic. We'll go back to
the next period in which the SMH pushed
up over 200%
and it pushed up 239% after doing so,
what happened? It dropped down 28%, 29%,
basically to the bottom of this
parallel. Right here would be that
level. And then it what did it do
afterwards? It bounced up 26%. Now, it
did jockey around before declining more
and bouncing up, but we're right here in
this stage of the first initial drop. We
go back over here and see how this side
worked out, too. You could see we
chopped around for a while, dropped 20%,
had a decent pop, but then initially
from that
from that top to this next bottom was
more in line with where we're at now.
24% down. Following that, we had a 20%
pop and then concluded with more selling
pressure. So, we are on the verge of a
potential bounce. Being 24% down, we
could go as much as around 30 before we
start seeing price bounce back up on the
SMH and and money start flowing back
into tech. Two destinations for a
bounce. First would be the top end of
this parallel right around $550.
And secondly, would be this neckline of
the head and shoulders pattern on the
SMH at $582.22.
Next up into the 10-year, guys, which is
part of the reason why the market
started curling back over towards the
end of the day. Look at this pushing
back up through this previous
resistance, 4.687, telling me if we
continue this journey moving up, next
stop 4.809%.
You can see on the hourly time frame
that really all came later after the
conference and actually at the very tail
end of the conference with the 10-year
yield pushing up very nicely. You can
see what happened on the DXY as well.
This is the hourly time frame on the US
dollar. Big huge kerplunk, which
initially spiked up gold and silver, but
then we saw a huge rebound. You can see
where this all happened. It wasn't just
by coincidence that we got a bounce
right here at 100.86 on the dollar. The
reason being, guys, because that's the
top of a parallel channel that you see
on the chart that the dollar has fought
for a very long time to get above and
remain above. Now we see we're testing
the top of that parallel today. Now
near-term, we've actually broken out of
this consolidation all to have it
retrace. And what happens when price
breaks out and then retraces?
You guys know it. You've watched the
show. We should be due for a bounce here
on the dollar, right? So where's that
going to take us? Should take us up to
this trend line right at 101.97.
If that occurs, both gold and silver are
likely coming down lower. You see gold
got rejected today right here at this
declining trend line. We go on the
hourly time frame, initially popped with
the dollar dropping, but then once the
dollar resurged, gold came right back
down. And also once that 10-year yield
popped, gold came right back down.
Still, as predicted over the last 6-7
days, I thought gold would have a heck
of a chance to get through these levels
of resistance and likely trail this
declining trend line. That's exactly
what's happened. I'm still anticipating
gold to come down lower cuz all of this
is bearish consolidation. Honey pot buy
zone down here under 3,500 on gold. Next
up silver, very similar situation here,
guys. Initially I had price trying to
get above the 50% area of this parallel
channel highlighted by these dotted
lines right at $58.61.
Failed in doing so today, still in
bearish consolidation telling me next
stop lower right around $50 if not a
little pierce of that range of $50. Uh
next up into US oil. Nice pop today.
Again, escalation over in the Middle
East. Had a price uh surge there on US
oil. Popped up over 7%. Next level of
resistance, which could be a little
speed bump particularly with this news
that pops off overnight. 8638 is that
level of resistance. I'm more angling up
here at $96.44.
If we shoot straight up to that area, I
anticipate some pausing if not a little
bit of profit taking in that range. Next
up uh nat gas. Now, nat gas did a
uh good thing today. It put in a
positive day as we see here on the
chart. Now, yesterday we did not close
underneath all of these wicks. So, that
also was a positive slight glimmer of
hope there for natural gas. The main
thing now is get back above what was
support. You could see here today we
tried to get above and it actually acted
as resistance. Now, if we get back up
tomorrow, this still will be support at
$2.75. We didn't confirm underneath that
line telling me that we could easily
still navigate right back above it. So,
we'll see if nat gas has a positive push
tomorrow. Next up into Bitcoin, not
really much new to report here. It did
make an attempt at getting back inside
that parallel channel, got rejected. You
see that wick that's occurring there.
Much like gold and silver, even though
this is starting to form an inverse head
and shoulders pattern, it's still in
bearish consolidation territory and
underneath the parallel. Both of those
tell tell we're likely still going down
lower. Now, of course, that can change.
We start getting back inside the
parallel, even breaching this inverse
head and shoulders pattern, well, then
now it's near-term upside potential on
Bitcoin. However, it's still bearish,
guys. All of this price action is not
necessarily good for Bitcoin. I'm
anticipating us to come down at least to
the next support at 53,000. Next up,
guys, actually, before we get into some
viewer requests, which we got two of
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so let's jump into some viewer requests,
guys. Thank you again for all these
comments. Really does help and create a
better show for all of us to check out
what opportunities lie on the horizon.
Now, first off, this view is on uh XOP.
Now, this was from uh Ohio Silver, one
of our uh avid viewers. And the next
viewer is or the next chart is going to
be for Living Linda, another one of our
avid viewers. Thank you, guys, so much.
So, first up, on XOP on the weekly time
frame, you could see this is an ETF for
oil and gas exploration. Now, most
recently, you can see that price action
on the XOP broke out of this declining
trend line. It broke out and it
retraced. And what has it done? It's
bounced, folks. That's what it's
supposed to do. Break out, retrace,
bounce, play. Perfectly done here on
this chart. Where is it getting jammed
up? Right in the 50% area of this
parallel channel. Get above $172.71,
then we've got a good shot at going up
and testing the top of this parallel
channel. Because if you see here, we
have It's not a symmetrically shaped
one, but we have collective left
shoulder, head, and right shoulder with
a inverse head and shoulders targeted
measured move up here at $296.
So, you want to ensure that this main
trend line right here remains uh price
remains above that trend line. That
value is at $160.59.
That keeps this very bullish target on
the screen as a target to be hit in the
near future. Next up, from Living Linda,
wanted to just take a look at Sony. Now,
Sony's got some earnings coming up soon,
so I can understand why. They're coming
out August 6th. But, look at this
inclining trend line, which is where I
see price going before we have some
brakes put on, and likely we could get
there before earnings. This inclining
trend line comes to $23.27.
Now, if Sony can get above, if you see
here on this chart, we had a lot of
great movement and price action up above
this inclining trend line. Getting back
above that would be very bullish near
term for Sony. Notice all of this
resistance coming into play. So, that
tells me we likely are going to take
several days or maybe a big earnings
catalyst boost to gap up over this level
of resistance. If so, next resistance
just shy of $25. Main thing though, you
want to maintain above this horizontal
trend line at $20.19.
That for right now is the near term
floor for the current price action
that's going on on Sony. All right, next
up into some more earnings, guys. VRT
came out with earnings this morning.
Look at that. Slip and slide. Earnings
weren't bad, guys. They slightly missed
on revenue. As a matter of fact, their
guidance was in line, and they had a
slight increase. So, it really wasn't
that bad of an earnings, but look how
nasty this last 3-day decline has been,
even piercing this longer-term inclining
trend line. Now, the key thing for VRT
tomorrow, where does it close? Does it
close underneath this candle? If so,
I'll be looking for areas of support for
a bounce to re-attack this inclining
trend line. You can see here on the
daily RSI, we are oversold, guys, down
under 30 at 26.86.
So, that means any moment now we're due
for a bounce. The 50% retrace of this
Fibonacci sequence from this move from
all the way down here to the top is just
underneath this trend line. So, right
around $216. This whole range is a very
strong support zone. So, I anticipate
should we not close under this
candle tomorrow, we very well could
start moving right back up above this
inclining trend line, simply because
we're oversold, simply because
jeez, this is a great support level
combining long-term trend lines, and
also an oversold nature should generate
a technical bounce up to the M bottom
portion of this M and eventual A
pattern, which is right around $276.
Next up into Garmin. Guys, look at this
big push in earnings beat for Garmin
today. Smashed earnings, not displayed
here on this TradingView panel, but it
smashed it to the tone where we pushed
up 16.23%
pushing through $300 today. So, let's go
back and see what Garmin has been doing
most recently. You can see I've got a
parallel channel
back to October of 2023.
And then today's price movement broke
through this inclining trend line. It
said goodbye to this first two 10-minute
candles and continued ripping through.
Now, the main thing for bulls on Garmin,
you want to see price maintain above
this inclining trend line. That's right
around $281 to $282.
As long as it can do so and develop some
bullish consolidation, there's no reason
we can't go up and tag the top of that
parallel right around $325.
Now guys, next up, let's get into some
earnings that are happening today. Let's
see where all the price action is
moving, causing more volatility and
creating trading opportunities for us
tomorrow. So first up, Microsoft guys,
nice pop on Microsoft after hours,
getting itself back above $400. You can
tell here it's already been beaten up.
We could be due for a bounce going into
earnings and that's exactly what we're
getting. You split over the 10-minute
chart, we got as high as 408.49 right
into that trend line, guys, and then has
getting rejected. So that's very
interesting that that trend line is
working after hours. Tomorrow, be
anticipating Microsoft to make a run for
the bottom of this parallel channel
right at $417.
Another story over here on Meta, guys,
to the downside we go. Look at this nice
decline now trading under $550.
We got as low as $533
after hours before receiving a little
bit of a pop. You can notice that did
pierce this trend line. This trend line
right here for support at $535.
So this trend line, pivot to pivot, this
would be a third hit, should generate a
decent bounce on the chart. We'll see if
Meta opens up above this trend line
tomorrow. The value of that is right at
$536.40.
If we do not, next support at 525.24,
then look out below. Next one is at
441.77.
So it all determines, where do we open
tomorrow as to which location a bounce
could occur there on Meta. Next up,
Qualcomm, also following Meta, going
further down on the chart now trading at
$150.
Notice this bottom range of the parallel
channel, $139.42.
We got as low as 144.
So that tells me, guys, we got a shot to
keep coming down as long as selling
pre-pressure remains. Notice that if we
continue moving down tomorrow, this
level 139 would be a great target for a
near-term bounce. Look at that daily
oversold nature of this chart, getting
close to the 30-point threshold. Um and
also oversold near-term solid support
previous levels of pivot highs. That's
telling me right here in this range of
139, we should uh be doing at least for
a day trade, if not at least a few day
bounce. Otherwise, I do want to warn you
guys, this is a very sharp left
shoulder, head, and right shoulder that
does have a measured move target
underneath that parallel. So, we
eventually could break, but this would
be a fairly very solid level to consider
for a swing trade. Tomorrow day trades,
I'll be looking for that right here on
the bottom of the parallel channel. Next
up into Hood. Hood also selling off
after hours, coming down decently. Next
support on Hood at $81.04.
Don't have any data printed for that
yet. Let's see where it went straight
after hours, and we're right there
trading near the low. So, very nice
decline there on Hood. Next up and
lastly into LRCX. Semiconductor play
here, and we're actually doing well,
bucking the trend from both Meta and
Qualcomm, but nicely done on LRCX,
pushing up. Near-term resistance will be
the bottom range of this parallel
channel. $277.55.
And that's about where we got. We got as
high as 276.
So, that area of resistance even after
hours is doing its job. If we do gap
into this parallel tomorrow, gap fill
will be resistance tomorrow right around
291, but the destination likely is going
to be this 50% area of the parallel,
more for a swing play if this bounce
continues. All right, guys, fantastic
day, boatloads of information that the
whole market is going to digest. We're
certainly going to go back, I am at
least, rewatch what Kevin Warsh said so
that I can have a correct plan moving
forward for these upcoming events. A lot
of data still to be released. The Fed
Watch Tool extremely reduced the chances
of rate hikes going into September.
However, it's still over 50%. So, right
now we got about a coin flip's chance.
We'll keep you up to speed on those
percentages moving forward. Thank you
again, guys, for watching. Don't forget
to like and subscribe to the video.
Really helps us out, so I appreciate
that if you could do it. Aside from
that, can't wait to be back here
tomorrow and see you guys right here on
the charts. Take care, everybody.
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