SPY Topping Tail: Swing Short Setup + Bitcoin Rejection at Key Resistance

Each afternoon, real setups are broken down with entry strategies and the technical reasoning behind every trade. This is today's best trade setups with Verified Investing. Welcome to today's best trade setups. My name is Benjamin Pool, head trader here at Verified Investing. The S&P 500 put in a topping tail on Friday. It's already retraced a 50%. So, this looks like a great opportunity to enter a swing short on the S&P 500 knowing that we've got a stop out on any daily closing basis above that topping tail. Also, US oil is having a little bit of a surge to the upside and then Bitcoin had this huge rally up to that $80,566 level. We're going to go over that at the end of the video. Let's go ahead and jump right into the charts. The first one I'm going to talk about is the S&P 500. So, here's the topping tail. You have this pivot top here connected to the pivot lows. And so, if I zoom into the charts, what I'm looking at actually it never hit the 50% Fibonacci retracement. So, the 50% fib retracement is sitting at $722.67. So, for those aggressive traders, this is a level to get in knowing that you would just stop out of the trade above 724.87 on a daily closing basis. Not a pierce, but a close above this. This would negate this topping tail and that could send the S&P 500 higher. What I'm looking at on the charts, let me go ahead and remove this fib retracement level. It was was originally $70 or $730.08. But, because of something trend line and the price action moves, if it does get in there tomorrow and closes above, my next level of resistance is going to be $731.29. Overall, this extended move to the upside on on S&P 500 could be potentially coming to an end. So, we've got to monitor this topping tail. USO is also heading higher like I'd mentioned. I still like this uh gap in the charts sitting just below this secondary gap. So, $150.69. If we can get another push to the upside, that's my first audible level knowing I've got this previous gap in the charts at $151.26. Similar to how I'd play the S&P 500. If it does close above that on a daily closing basis, then I would look to stop out of the swing trade on US oil. Google is having a nice push. Well, it's down a little bit. But, what I like is this up something trend line. Pivot low here, secondary hit, third hit, fourth hit, finally got below, retraces scene of the crime, and then all of a sudden it's pushing back up, cleared like substantially past the all-time highs. $390.10 is still that level that I would love to take this opportunity for a swing short knowing that if it does close above 390, my next level of resistance is going to be a pierce of 400 bucks. Once we do start closing above this up something trend line though, the sky's the limit. We don't have too much resistance levels after that. And so, that could be your exit level depending on how you trade this. For me, I wouldn't mind dollar cost averaging every 10% up higher or so, which would be every $40 on the chart of Google. Eventually, we're going to have another rollover in the markets and Google will be taken down with it. Nvidia, a nice sell-off today. Closing um or it's getting down to this first long level. You have this prior gap in the charts sitting at $195.56. What I'm looking at today for a day trade is a pierce of 195 to enter a long trade at 194.92. Because this was a previous gap in the charts as well as all this price consolidation, I would like it to pierce that a little bit knowing I've got additional support at this opening red bar candle at $194.21. So, that's I would be in between these two support levels is where I'd pick up for a long trade. Now, those of you who are a little bit more conservative, you could wait for this gap in the charts sitting at $189.31. SanDisk is having this nice push to the upside as well. Look at this. So, this is the logarithmic chart on SanDisk. Couple different ways to play this. You could be very patient. And I've had to move this up sloping or this price target and this has to go do with the fact that if it were to hit here on the 24th of April, then the upside move would have been 1325. But if it hits there on the 5th of May, Cinco de Mayo, you're looking at $1454. And again, this is the logarithmic chart. And this gives me an idea of where the next level of resistance is going to be and depending on when it hits, could be as high as 1454. And I know that seems like a really big move on the chart of SanDisk, but really that's only a 16% move higher. 200 points, but that was would be my shortable level for a swing trade. Actually, it's getting overly extended anyways and so if you were to start shorting this now, you would just dollar cost average every $100 or so. And then once you get in the money, remove some of your position and help navigate the trade that way cuz you do get some pretty good pullbacks once you get overly extended on the chart of SanDisk. Micron is having this nice surge to the upside. So, when I was mentioning Google that was a hidden trend line and so Micron has a hidden trend line as well where price consolidates on the upper end of this trend line breaks below, retraces perfectly to it, gets this nice pullback, clears the all time highs and continues to march up. So, if we get up to about 600 bucks, that is my swing trade short level on Micron. Look at this overextension. So, $312.15. That was from the lows of the 31st of March 2026. In just a short amount of time, if it gets up to 600 bucks, that is a 93% move to the upside. Obviously, that can happen because it's happening now. My resistance level appears of $600. For those of you who are a little bit more aggressive and don't think the $600 level is going to pierce, you could enter it at 595 knowing that you've got this resistance level above you. And then that could also be your stop out. If it does start closing above on a um daily time frame above 600 bucks or it starts to consolidate right here at $588 to 600 bucks over six or seven days, that means that all these sellers who are exiting their trade at $600 have already exited and this allows the bears to exit the trade, bulls to take charge and really drives us to the upside. So, how you navigate that trade would be up to you. Um I still like this as a day trade short anywhere above 590 bucks. That's going to be a great shortable level for a swing for a day trade today. Swing trade level is a little bit higher. Charles Robinson worldwide is getting nice um nice drawdown today. I do have this previous um pivot low right here at five Excuse me, $159 and 96 cents. This low pivot for a day trade, again, a long at 159.96 is that first aggressive level. If it does start closing below that on a 15-minute closing basis, this is a trade that I would look to stop out of. And the reason is because look at this tail. So, you had this tail that goes all the way down to $149 and 34 cents. There's not a ton of support after that or after this pivot low here, which is why I would look to then re-enter it at this green bar candle opening knowing that I could dollar cost average all the way down to a pierce of 150 bucks. So, that's how I'd play that and then you have this gap in the chart sitting a little bit lower at $148 and 44 cents. UPS is actually into a great gap in the charts right now at $97.51. Because the gap is currently hitting right now, it's not going to provide quite as much or excuse me, as much support once it gets down there. So, if you're watching this video and it's around 12:30 and it's still at $97.51, you could still enter the trade. Just know that if it does close below that on a 15-minute closing basis, you've got to look for your next support level. And so, let's jump into the charts and show you where that next support level is. So, you're going to have this low pivot point right here at $95. And then you have this gap in the charts right here at $84.93. So, that would be the next level of support that I'd look for. Maybe look for a pierce of $95. So, again, aggressive traders, $97.51 if it's there when you guys watch this. And if not, if you're a little bit more conservative and it's already gotten through that level, you're looking at $95 pierce and that is your I mean, that is your next level. A little bit more conservative knowing that you've got this pivot low in the charts on UPS for another support level. So, that would be a about a $1 drop, 90 cent drop from this first gap to the second gap. FDX is also having a nice drawdown today as well as UPS. So, as you can see, UPS isn't quite as low as um or FDX isn't quite as low as UPS. So, I'm still liking this $357 whole round number for a long play. You got this nice gap in the charts. If you zoom out or if you zoom over, you've got a lot of support in this area. This opening candle for the green bar candle sitting at $355. This is another one though that I would look to stop out of if it does close below this on a 15-minute closing basis. This is where I'd likely exit it and then look for the next level of support. After this on the chart of FDX, you're looking at about another 4% move to the downside. And going into Tuesday or Wednesday, 341.81 is still a level that I would look at for a long play. So, keep this one on your radar, especially if it gets below 357 even whole round number. Here's what I like about charts. I'm going to zoom out on the chart of FedEx. You've got this up sloping trend line. Pivot high here, secondary hit. Look at this, closed above it, got a nice rejection. From this pivot high, you got a 11% move to the downside. And then all of a sudden you got back up, did close above it, looked like the bulls were in control, but then all of a sudden the bears came in and the earnings came out. 357 is where you're it's likely to head. If it does again get below that, because we've broken this up sloping trend line right here, it's looking to go down to 341.81. If you are looking to enter this for a swing trade short, just because it closes below does not guarantee that it's going to be a continuation move. So, what I look for is price to get a little bit lower. The bears or the bulls to drive this up, retrace to the scene of the crime. If we can get this as a swing short around $386.23. It really depends on when it hits this up sloping trend line. After that confirmation, this is where you enter, knowing that if it does close above this pivot top at 403, that's where you could exit the trade for a swing trade short. Um and stop out of the trade unless you feel like dollar cost averaging into the trade. Bitcoin, I was telling you to keep this on your radar. I did have this up sloping trend line. Here's this One of the reasons that we really like confirmations. Here's this up sloping trend line on Bitcoin. Pivot low here, secondary hit, third hit, fourth hit, fifth hit. We finally broke below. This was not our place to enter the swing short. Notice how it didn't close below this low pivot, and then all of a sudden price is retracing to the scene of the crime, right where I had my short level at 80,556 bucks. This is a major pivot in the charts that you actually got a really good rejection. It actually got back lower than 78,664 dollars, which is a pivot high area of support. And that's why it's nice to pay attention to major pivots in the charts. You can tell it can tell you where previous price action was sitting. So, these people who were in this trade were very bullish on this. As you can see, nice tail on this chart. Price action finally got below it. If they didn't exit that trade, they're thinking, "Oh my goodness. Look at how far out of the money I am. I was profitable on this trade, and now I'm down 25%." So, then all of a sudden, you make this 34% move to the upside. Where these people had already decided that they were going to take their losses, now they gets to this level, and that's why you're getting this pullback on the chart of Bitcoin. What we're looking for now is for those bulls out there, price to consolidate right underneath this 80,556 dollar level. If it can do that over the next six or seven days, then you're looking at the bears getting out of the way, and the bulls are going to drive this all the way up to 85,346 dollars. Now, here's the caveat. Here's the up sloping trend line right here. As you can see, this was a beautiful up sloping trend line, broke below, retraces to the scene of the crime. So, now we've actually flipped this to more bearish. So, I actually don't see it going through 80,556 bucks. I anticipate more of a pullback. What I need to see though is price to close below 75,000. Once price action does close below 75,000 on Bitcoin, then you're looking at this uh these low pivots in the area at 70,743 dollars. So, we also have to watch what's going to what's going on. Again, if it consolidates, then I'm more bullish, but right now I'm more bearish on the chart for Bitcoin. So, that's what I have for you guys. Thank you so much for watching. Um if you could do me a favor, just go ahead and hit that like button real quick. 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