Taiwan Stock with Breaking News Goes up 177%

AI Summary

Transcript

What's up everyone? All right, well,
back at it today after the red day
yesterday and I'm sitting in the green,
which is great. We had a couple of
stocks that gave us some nice action
this morning. We had one leading gainer
that ended up going up just shy of 200%
on the day and I wasn't really sure this
one would work. Why? Because I had news.
I thought that people were only trading
Chinese stocks with no news. So, this
stock had news and it still went higher,
but it wasn't a US company. It was from
Taiwan. So, Taiwan company with news,
biggest move today so far. So, all
right, well, that's the stock that I
broke the ice on, but I missed the
beginning of the move and I just
patiently waited. I said, "That's fine.
All right, so I missed the beginning of
the move. There will be other
opportunities. If it's genuinely strong,
there will be other opportunities and
there were and I got a really nice curl
as it broke over $3 a share and then
squeezed all the way up to $4.50. So,
let's go ahead and jump screen share and
start breaking it down. Before we get
into um NCRA, which was our leading
gainer this morning. This is the one
that squeezed from $1.50 up to $4.50.
Let's just talk about a couple of the
other stocks that are moving right now,
including AMIX. All right, so AMIX, um
this one, you know, has been moving up
here. Uh started after hours, pushed a
little higher, pulled back, pushed
higher, pulled back, squeezes through
the VWAP at about 7:20, dips down and
then rips at the open from 4:50 up to a
high of what is it? 7 uh 7:25.
Now, this is another one of these stocks
that halts after the open. This is kind
of what we saw yesterday. Uh we've seen
halts uh on DFNS a couple days in a row
at the open. Yesterday it went up $14 a
share from 20 to 35, 36. The day before
that, we had uh momentum. Well, it
wasn't really at the open. Sort of
pulled back, but then a little bit later
in the day in the trading session. Uh
yesterday we had INLF uh that halted up
multiple times, if you recall.
I actually managed to lose money on this
one, but nonetheless
um
it's fine. Uh it still had was very
volatile after the open. So, I think
today traders were probably looking for
those stocks. And while DFNS did squeeze
up um after the open, being higher
priced probably most traders were
sitting on the sidelines. Not sure they
could trust it. But AMMX being a little
cheaper, well, people jumped on it and
this thing squeezed. It squeezed up to
five, pulled back up to 550. It halts
right here about 594, 595. And then it's
showing a 595 resumption. So, it resumes
exactly flat versus the halt. It flushes
down and as it flushed there were some
big sellers on the ask. 20, 30,000 share
sellers. And so it felt like, "All
right, there's a lot of sellers on this.
It's probably not going to work." But
then there's a surge of buying and all
of those sellers got cleared out as it
squeezes all the way up to 680.
But then it dips down again, the sellers
come back in. Then it comes back up
right here. It pushes through 680, it
pushes through seven, hits a high 725,
and then those sellers kept coming back
out. And now I think the buyers are
getting a little bit exhausted and
they're sort of giving up. So now we're
seeing it curling, uh you know, pulling
back. The MACD is going against the
trade, starting to. And it seems like
that was maybe that burst of momentum.
Now we had a couple others that halted
at the open including STFS.
Um so STFS
this is one that um if we back this up a
little bit, you'll see here yesterday
ends up halting up and
you know, through some ridiculous halts
with huge gaps. It halts up at four, it
resumes at six, halts up again, then
resumes at 780, where it halts up again,
then halts down, comes all the way back
down. After hours it squeezes back up,
then it pulls back. Squeezes back up,
pulls back, and here at the open
squeezed up, halted up, and then resumed
high at six and flushed into a halt
down. Halted down at 5:39 and it's
currently showing a resumption quote of
442.
All right, so that's not what we really
like to see. That's a lower resumption
quote. Obviously not ideal. Okay, so um
so we end up getting that Oh, hold on
one second. I'm just um
All right, yes, please. So, we end up
getting that squeeze up to 560, halts
up, uh resumes higher, flushes down, and
then you've got that red volume bar. So,
this does not look good right now. So,
that's STFS. And then there was one
other that halted um what was that? Uh
Now I can't remember the ticker. Anyway,
it doesn't really matter because this is
kind of the trend we're seeing is that
yes, you got some halts that worked
yesterday, but they're not working
today. So, now these are pulling back.
And maybe, you know, through the late
part of the morning or early afternoon,
that sentiment will shift and we'll see
some stocks that start to actually trade
in a bit more of a clean way. Uh but for
right now, it seems that um
the cleaner price action was pre-market.
Okay, so then let's look at our
pre-market move, which was on NCRA. It's
got 60 million shares of volume right
now. This is incredible. So, again,
Taiwan company, as you can see right
there, um
advances AI infrastructure strategy to
acquire C uh sorry, Qmax Technology, a
Taiwan-based authorized distributor of
Micron Crucial Memory Storage Products.
All right, so
that's our that's our headline on this
one. Um
When this one first hit the scanners, I
was sort of I was sort of not sure about
it.
Um This is a company that in the past um
so, first of all, it's canned, frozen,
and preserved foods. That's the
industry. So, you're sort of like, well,
wait a second. So, what do they do like
frozen fish or something?
Um but, they took on a treasury um
treasure crypto treasury strategy. This
was uh last year. So, $300 private
placement for crypto treasury strategy.
So, they kind of do a change of business
and now they're kind of jumping into AI.
They also have a shelf registration that
they just filed like a week ago, 2 weeks
ago. So, I kind of was a little bit
unsure that this was going to work. I I
didn't mean to be skeptical, but I was
like, you know, this is a stock we've
traded before and I don't know if it's
going to work. So, ends up popping up
here, selling off. This was at 4:00 in
the morning. Now, the news didn't come
out that early. Then it pulls back,
pulls back, and then right here it
starts to squeeze up. So, let's see.
This headline came out at 8:00 a.m. uh
right there. So, it pops up again at
6:20, then it drops, and then it goes at
8:00 when the actual news comes out. So,
that's a little weird, right? Who was
punching those orders earlier this
morning? I don't know. But, anyways, it
pops up and when it first pops up, it
goes up to about $1.80, pulls back, goes
up to two, pulls back, and I'm like,
nah, I don't care. It's not really not
that interesting to me. I'm not This is
it's still a little too cheap and, you
know, I'm sort of familiar with the
stock. So, I was like, nah, I just don't
think that's going to work. Okay.
So, no trades on it. And then suddenly
it rips through two and goes all the way
up to 283. And that's when I got
interested.
When you have a stock that goes up 30%
in one candle,
I get excited about that. That's a
That's a pretty big move. So, now I'm
like, all right, it's game time. And I'm
watching and I'm I got my order ready,
but it flashes up to 310, then it drops
back down, comes back up, drops back
down, and I recognize those two topping
tail candles. So, as it comes back up
here, I was like, nah, I don't think
it's going to work. I'm going to wait.
Then it rolls over hard back down to two
bucks, below VWAP, and I was like, well,
looks like this maybe's is to be another
round trip. But, then it curls back up
here to 240. And when it starts printing
250, 260, 270, I put my order at 275 and
I was too slow to press the buy button
and it rips to 340 without me. So I
missed that trade right there. But
again, a topping tail and then it
softens back down. So each time it
popped up, shorts kind of got heavy on
it and we saw a lot of selling against
three here and then we had a lot of
selling against three here.
So then we pull back again, there's a
lot of selling and then it comes back up
right here and gets back above the
volume weight average price. And right
here, that was probably the spot I
should have bought. I waited, it pops up
here, pulls back, I get in right about
here. It was about 385, three and
something like that, 390 or sorry, 285,
290 and then we get this pop here up to
340. Good, but double top with a
previous high. We dip down, we squeeze
through this level, I add. I add for the
break of four, we go all the way up to
440, 450 and for and we hit a high here
of 455. Now, I actually added as high as
440 because once we were moving this
fast, I was like $5 was the next level I
was watching on the daily chart. So on
the daily chart, we had room up to 530
and then above that, we had room to 720.
Now, you could see this history of the
stock with red volume bars and somewhat
recent reverse split, 200 moving average
up around 14, but those are the levels I
was watching. So unfortunately, we got
another topping tail there. It flushes
down and I gave back
more than half my profit. So I peaked at
about $56,000
in the green on that move right there
and then because I added it at 440,
I immediately gave back quite a bit and
by this point here, I was at 30,000 on
the day. So I was like, all right,
that's kind of a bummer. Then it curls
back up and I got back in right here for
the break through four and I lost 10
grand. I stopped out again. And so now I
was like, all right, well, bummer.
That's I guess that's about it.
So then I got one more trade on it,
which gives me a profit of 23,000, as
you can see right there. And then I took
one trade on DFNS, and I lost 1,200. So
I'm sitting up $22,000 on the day, being
red 32,000 yesterday. I'm still red on
the last 2 days. I'm still technically
in a drawdown.
But I was up 32,000 on Monday. So Monday
and Tuesday cancel each other out, and
I'm up 23,000 or 22,000 here on the week
as of right now.
And yeah, you know, I was up 50-plus
thousand.
On the other hand,
you could say, well, jeez, why didn't
you just stop when you were up 30,000?
Once you made back yesterday's loss, you
could have just stopped right there.
Well, then I would never have days where
I go up 40, 50, 60, or 70, or 100,000
dollars or more.
When you have something that's moving, I
size up. But we got that topping tail,
it flushed back down, then these two
rejections here, and you know, I just
that that was it. So unfortunately, it's
one of those stocks that definitely gave
some opportunity, but it was fairly
short-lived, which is a little
unfortunate.
But you know, green nonetheless, I can't
complain. So that was NCRA. I was
wondering if it would give us another
trade at the opening bell, but attention
kind of shifted to DFNS, which started
popping up. I got in at 39 here for the
break through the halt, held through the
halt, was looking for a squeeze higher,
and stopped out as it came back down.
1,500 shares, smaller position. And then
we had AMIX that halted, STFS that
halted, and there was a another one that
halted as well. So at this point, um
I'm just going to take the profit off
the table. Technically, I should have
walked away sooner because I gave back
more than half my profit.
But you know, I
pushed it a little harder today, and
ended up giving back a little bit more.
So anyways, still struggling a little
bit with discipline, and kind of
moderating, you know, when when to walk
away each day and how aggressive to be.
And that's the challenge in this market
because I mean, we're we're seeing
stocks that are making three, four, 500%
moves. And so there's a degree of FOMO
that all of us probably experience. I
mean, I experience it for sure. And
so then when I see something else
popping up, I'm thinking, "Okay, this
one looks good. This one looks very
similar. I'm going to go ahead and punch
it." And, you know, look, some of them
work and then but others fail pretty
dramatically. So, I think that a
challenge with hot markets is that
there's a tendency, excuse me, there's a
tendency to take bigger share size to
try to capitalize on the move, right?
Try to make more money. But, because
we're seeing bigger ranges, bigger share
size is a sword that cuts both ways,
right? Or as the saying goes, because
you get equally big losses. And so
that's what kind of happened today, you
know, I had a 30,000 share position, I
lost 35 cents a share, it's 10 grand.
And, you know, getting a full 35 cents
on a three or four dollar stock doesn't
happen all the time on the winning side,
but sure enough on the losing side, the
combination of buying on the ask to get
in and then bailing on the bid to get
out, there's a little slippage in there,
plus, you know, you're selling into
weakness, so there's not buyers to meet
your order, so it flushes even more
because you've got a big order. And so
all of that kind of contributes to the
sense that in hot markets, you can get
on a little bit of a roller coaster with
big wins, but also big losses. And
that's what I'm seeing here. Now,
alternatively, I could just size down,
stop taking 50,000 share positions or
whatever the case is, and just scale it
back a little bit.
Uh and that sounds like a bad idea. And
the reason I don't like that is because
I feel like I'm squandering the
opportunity. That there's this window
that's open, and we don't know how long
it'll be open. And so I want to try to
capitalize on it the best I can. And so
when the market's hot, generally, I try
to size up. There's the liquidity to do
it, tens of millions of shares,
sometimes hundreds of millions of shares
of volume, so I can buy the shares,
but, you know,
is that is that always the right move?
And this varies a little bit between
when we're at the beginning of a hot
market and things are still
accelerating, when we have clear themes
that we can get dialed in on. Like right
now, if we had a stock, well, let's say
like, you know, a year ago, when crypto
treasury strategies were working, when
cryptocurrency was at all-time highs, a
company put out a headline of a $300
private placement to invest in
cryptocurrency, and their stock went up
1,000% in one day. And so, the second
you saw that headline, you knew, boom,
this is the one. And so, the theme was
so strong that and the pattern was so
clear that if you weren't being
aggressive, you were leaving a lot on
the table because it was becoming quite
obvious what was happening after that
headline would come out.
Right now, we don't have a theme that is
as obvious as what we had last year with
the crypto treasury strategy. We're
seeing some Chinese stocks with no news,
and some are working, but others are
failing dramatically. We're seeing a
Taiwan company,
okay, it worked, but now it's rolling
over, it had a shelf registration, you
know, it had some stuff that maybe
didn't look so good about it. So, we
don't have a super clear theme
other than there's a bit of a feeding
frenzy in the market. There's traders
who are hungry, they want to make money,
and we all do, but because we've
recently seen some 1,000, 2,000% moves,
traders are pretty quick to jump on
anything that's moving. And so, that's
creating some erratic price action, big
swings to the upside, big reversals back
down, and so, this is more of a it's
more of a
kind of like confused, mixed market,
where yes, it's hot, but it's not as
clear on any given day what catalyst
could come out that's going to send a
stock up 300%. Now, if we knew that like
we did last summer, then I start getting
really aggressive every time I see that
catalyst until the theme goes away and
stops working. But, uh we don't have
that theme right now. So, each day when
I'm sitting down and sizing up, you
know, for a trade, I'm like, "Is this
the one or is it not the one?" And I
can't quite tell until it starts to
squeeze quickly, but even then it's
like, "Well, it was that just the top
and now it's going to roll over or does
it have more in it?" And so, this is
what I'm struggling with right now and I
imagine uh many of you guys are
struggling in a similar way, but
nevertheless,
big picture, we've got leading gainers
each day with tens of millions of shares
of volume that are volatile. And that
volatility presents opportunity. So, if
we just simplify it to that level, we've
got stocks that are worth considering,
they're presenting chart patterns that
we're familiar with, and if you want to
play it safe, smaller size right now is
probably the way to go. I'm still being
pretty aggressive, um you know, and I
guess yesterday it didn't really pay
off. Today I gave back half. On the
other hand, who knows? Tomorrow could be
a $75,000 or $100,000 green day. I mean,
it could, you know, it's
it So, we're kind of I'm trading at a
level where we're either seeing sort of
like big home runs or strike outs, and I
guess that's a little um you know,
contrary to what I typically focus on,
which is just base hit, get in, get out,
get in, get out. But, when the market is
hot, um
each of these base hit setups can end up
working much better than in a a colder
market. And so, then working better,
combining that with bigger share size,
is when all of a sudden these base hits
become uh much bigger winners, even
though they may not be uh true home
runs. They're they're definitely they're
definitely bigger winners. So, that's
where I'm at here today. No trades in
the small account. Small account got
beaten up yesterday. I took a took a
loss, and today
wasn't sure enough about NCRA where I
took my first trade that it was going to
work, so just left it alone for the
small account, but uh but ended up with
the trades in the big account. So,
that's it for me, and I'll be back at it
first thing tomorrow morning, but let me
remind you as always that trading is
risky. And my results aren't typical,
and there's no guarantee you'll find
success whether you trade on your own or
learn from me. So, please manage your
risk by practicing in a simulator before
putting real money on the line. With
that, I'll see you guys streaming bright
and early tomorrow morning at 7:00 a.m.
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