My Trading Game Plan | July 30, 2026

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Transcript

My name is Gareth Soloway and I was a
losing trader until [music] I mastered
technical analysis. Logic and charts
beat hype and narratives every time. Now
I teach investors the same techniques
[music] that made me a
multi-millionaire. This is my trading
game plan.
Good morning everybody. Welcome to my
trading game plan. My name is Gareth
Soloway, chief market strategist here at
Verified Investing and of course we're
going to dive into the data and all boy
there is a lot. Yesterday the Federal
Reserve coming out at 2:00 p.m. and
keeping rates the same. The markets
initially liked that because there had
been a decent chance that they were
going to raise rates. Now what was
interesting is in the press conference
Kevin Warsh, the new Fed chair, talked a
tough game. He said we're going to get
prices under control and then he didn't
give any details. And this brings back
the worry that I had which is the
president when he appointed the Fed
chair, he said he wasn't going to
appoint anyone that was going to raise
rates. And so while Kevin Warsh is
talking a tough game, it's looks like
there's not much substance behind it.
And what we saw yesterday afternoon was
a massive sell-off. The S&P dropping 1
and 1/2% to 2% in the final hour of
trading once the market realized that.
In addition, we saw the long end of the
yield curve, the 30-year interest rate
going up and making new multi-year
highs. This again is something that is
very negative for the housing market. So
all in all the markets tanked yesterday
afternoon and part of that also was that
the president had essentially done a
truth social post saying that he was
going to be hitting Iran hard again. And
he did do that overnight, but ultimately
today oil is stable.
And the biggest factor guys, the Kospi,
the South Korean stock market that 50%
of that is essentially semiconductors,
two companies, it only was down 1%. The
prior 2 days it had been limit down
basically 10% 2 days in a row. Think
it's 40% off of its highs. That gave a
stabilizing impact to the semi trade,
and this morning semis are rallying.
Yesterday in the game plan I said, "Hey
guys, I'm going to be buying semis
today." I did that. I've already started
taking some profits on some of these
names with the big roaring rally. I
think they're still going to go higher,
but trying to use good money management.
All right, let's get into the charts. We
have lots to discuss. I'll even go over
the economic news that just broke a
little while ago, but let's not delay
here. Here's what we had. This was the
massive sell-off on the futures
yesterday afternoon. We then overnight
had a little bit of a float up, and the
markets are recovering. Now, listen,
they're not fully recovering the drop,
but we've retraced about 50 plus percent
of the big swoon in late trading on the
S&P futures. Again, you could see a
little bit of chop right here. This is
right as economic data came out. We got
the latest GDP for the second quarter.
It came in a little bit weaker than
expected at 1.5%
versus I think it was expected to be
2.1%,
but the PCE data, which is the inflation
data, uh that the Fed pays the most
attention to, that came in in line with
estimates. So, really, that's why the
S&P didn't budge much. You didn't see a
big move one way or the other. It kind
of jockey jockeyed around a little bit
and is stabilizing right here. All
right, let's get into the S&P daily
chart here, guys. Let's go over to that.
And this is what I'm talking about. So,
number one, we had this. And let's just
start with this. This was a wedge
pattern that was forming on the S&P 500.
Now, before I want to preempt, before I
go into this, I want you guys to
understand I am long this market. I am
very heavily long this market right now
based off of yesterday's swoon. Again,
if you're a smart money stocks and ETF
member, you know. All right. Now
granted, have I taken a bunch of profits
this morning already in the pre-market
with members? Yes, but I'm still
predominantly long. I have one short and
that's Apple. And again, I'm actually
going to hold that into earnings. Not to
say it can't go up, but I think the
extension move gives me the probability
that even if it pops a little on
earnings, it should come in based on the
chart. Aside from that, I'm long stocks
right now. Now, when I say that, if we
look at the charts, even though I expect
a bounce, I think it's a short-term
bounce before another bigger rollover.
So, understand time frame here. Cuz
again, I'll be long and I am long, but
I'm not going to stick around long. I'm
going to get my money like I already
took some profits today, grab it and run
over the next let's say maybe into early
next week and then take those and I'll
decide if I want to start shorting the
market based on the data that I'm seeing
at that point. All right. That's the
difference again between a long-term
investor and swing trader. But this is
one of the concerns I have. We had this
wedge pattern building, pivot low, pivot
low, pivot lows right here. And look at
what we broke. Now, have we confirmed?
No, we haven't. But still, it is getting
my attention that the wedge pattern
broke to the downside. In addition,
remember not long ago, we were watching
to see if we would get lower lows and
lower highs. Well, we definitely got
lower lows. There's no doubt about it.
Or I should say lower highs, excuse me.
But look at this, we still don't have
lower lows yet. This is a low, still a
higher low, and a higher low. So, that's
the last piece of the puzzle that I'm
watching that will get my attention to
really go full-fledged bearish on the
market. The last thing I want to point
out here, guys, let's take these away.
Remember the trend line we've been
following which is actually a parallel
channel going back to the bull market
high in late 2021, early 2022 right
here. This is before the bear market of
2022. If we take a trend line, we drag
it up to this highest pivot right
through here, this is very very
intriguing. Look at this guys, right to
that high and look at where we are. So
again, we're right on that line. Again,
you could argue we closed below.
Remember if you use the confirmation
signal, it has to close below a level
and then you need a subsequent close
below the low of that candle. I teach
this in my winning trader series, again,
which is a 18-hour course. I mean, it's
a it's a behemoth, but it's everything
in this mind of mine. But that's really
solidifies a real breakdown or breakout
versus a fakeout. And you can see the QR
code there. We'll try to get you guys
another sale at some point by end of
year where we have a 50% off sale or
something like that for you guys. For
those of you that it is expensive, but
again, it is people that have taken it,
they'll tell you it changes their game.
All right, so this is what we're keeping
an eye on right here. I've been talking
about this almost in every game plan. We
have to monitor these. If this really
confirms, then it becomes a breakout
here,
right? That fails. And when you fail a
breakout, what happens? The move isn't
usually just a tiny move to the
downside. It's usually a big move. And I
would expect a flush all the way down to
about 7,000 on the S&P. That would be my
first my next technical bounce level at
that point. Again, so short-term, let's
be clear on this. I am long short-term
for a few days. Getting the bounces on
the semis, have them bounce 10, 15, 20%
then I'm going to start eyeing the
charts and say, "Okay, are we making
lower highs? What are the signals? Are
we filling gaps that are going to see
reversals? Where do we go from there?
All right, let's go on to some other
charts. The dollar today is pulling back
just a little bit. The dollar was down
yesterday. I think the issue with the
dollar yesterday, and this is
interesting. We kind of diverge, right?
Cuz the dollar fell and rates went up.
Usually it's the opposite. Usually it's
they go together. The dollar falls,
yields fall, right? Or the in the
interest rates fall. The reason this
happened is because the market controls
more so of the yields, the 10-year, the
20-year, the 30-year yield. Remember
that's market set. The Fed only controls
the short end.
On the other side, the market read into
what Kevin Warsh was saying, and they
and basically the market said, "We think
he's just going to be a lax kind of I
don't I don't want to use the word
puppet, but he's not going to be as
harsh. He's all talk with no backbone."
And that's negative for the dollar,
right? It just is what it is. All right,
so that's where we are on that. The
10-year yield is fractionally lower, but
look at how the 10-year yield yesterday
shot all right up, closing basically
back around 4.7%. Again, 10-year yield
here is pretty impressive. We're not
back to the highs from last uh 2025
January, but look at this. If we go to
the 30-year, the 30-year made a new
high, and look at how far back you have
to go. I mean, this is incredible, guys.
You have to go to your weekly chart, and
the last time the 30-year was this high
was in 2007.
Now, for those of us that are history
buffs, and you really don't even have to
be a history buff for this,
what was going on in 2007?
It was the beginning of the financial
crisis.
So, you have to start wondering,
is there something
going on here?
And you know why rates are high, right?
Because the US just keeps spending like
a drunken sailor.
The debt is almost at 40 trillion.
There's no sign of any sort of stalling
on spending. And it's going to push up
long end. Like who wants to buy Like let
me ask you guys a question.
Do you really want to buy a a bond
that's 30 years? Like where is the US
debt in 30 years? Like 120 trillion? You
know, like or maybe more, maybe 200
trillion.
I personally would not want to be buying
those long dated, especially to get 5%.
5%? I mean, inflation's 3 to 4%. You're
barely making money for 30 years.
Doesn't sound great to me. I get why the
interest rate has to go up here. It just
makes sense. But again, it's very bad
for housing. That is not going to be
good for mortgage rates, no doubt about
it. All right. The KOSPI, we talked
about this. This is what I'm talking
about. Look at the collapse in the South
Korean stock market here. But this was
really important. The mere fact that it
did not collapse more than just 1 and
1/4%. That built confidence. In
addition, look at all this support down
here on the KOSPI. You basically unwound
this whole last move up is now
unwinding. You should get a bounce in
the KOSPI. And again, that is the South
Korean stock market. Again, the reason I
highlight this is because two stocks, SK
Hynix and Samsung, make up 50% of their
stock market. So, it is incredibly
concentrated in semiconductors. And if
it bounces, that means the US
semiconductors should bounce. And we're
already seeing that on names like
SanDisk. Speaking of SanDisk, take a
look, guys. Yesterday, we talked about
this key level here. Look at this
beautiful trend line, which was a pierce
of $1,000.
Yesterday after hours, we got as low as
uh 975. We were at other trend lines.
And then look, we're starting to see a
bounce. This should have a technical
bounce. My upside target's about 1,300
on SanDisk. It's already back to 1092.
It's up over $100 from the after hours
lows. Yesterday after hours here, it
actually got to 970 in the after hours
when Arm Holdings, Qualcomm, and LRCX
reported yesterday after the bell. By
the way, Arm Holdings, which initially
was getting crushed on earnings. Look at
this. Crushed on earnings and look at
the recovery on Arm Holdings. It is
ripping. But this stock traded as low
yesterday after hours on earnings as at
$200.
It has gained 25%
from those lows. That's incredible.
Absolutely incredible. Now, LRCX right
out of the gate on earnings yesterday
after the bell basically went up. It
closed down here. It popped. It pulled
back. It chopped overnight. And now is
basically at the highs. And then
Qualcomm, poor Qualcomm. This one again
fell sharply on earnings. Is is off the
lows, but it is still down. But I'm
going to tell you something, guys. I
bought some Qualcomm today in the
pre-market. All right? But I think it
was at 146.87
was my entry or so. And I bought it
because number one, the daily chart
looks great. And number two, the reason
they didn't do as well on earnings is
because memory prices are so high that
it's throttling the phone demand aspect,
which is what they primarily do. My
thesis for Qualcomm of holding it even 3
to 6 months, maybe 9 months, is that
as memory prices eventually come down,
that's going to unthrottle and you'll
see an uptick in phone demand. That's
going to be really good for them. All
right? So again,
not financial advice. I just tell you
what I do. But that is one thing that I
did do today. And if you look at the
chart of Qualcomm, I mean, look at this
thing. It's basically and look at where
it was. I mean, we're trading at levels
that we were trading in 2024. In fact,
you have to go all the way down here
pre-market. I mean, it was lower during
the 2025 April tariff sell-off and then
this sell-off. But I mean, this
basically had this incredible run up and
it's given it all back and then some.
And so again, you could even go back
here. I mean, look at where it was
trading in 2021. It's back to those
levels. Not to say that it deserves to
be higher after these earnings, but it
certainly at least deserves for me a
look. And again,
if it were to go lower, there's more
support here. There's just a ton of
technical levels around 125 as well, in
which case I would probably add if it
gets that low. All right, other names in
the earnings report we haven't even
touched yet on Microsoft or Meta. Wow.
Uh Meta, listen, there's there's a if if
you are a CEO of a mega cap out there, I
have a recipe for your stock, right? If
you come out and say we're going to up
our spending, our CapEx, and our cash
flow is going to go down, our net it's
going to be negative, you're going to
get slaughtered by the market. Microsoft
did the opposite. Microsoft did not
raise their CapEx, they kept it steady,
and they said by next year their cash
flow is going to go up.
That's the golden ticket, folks. That is
the golden ticket. Now, on the other
side, Meta did the opposite. They're
raising their CapEx and their cash flow
basically negative, their worst cash
flow in like years and years and years,
and their stock is getting punished. So
again, keep that in mind, guys. If we
look here at Meta, Meta getting crushed
here in the overnight and during the
after hours yesterday. The bigger scare
for me is this, guys. Look at this. If
we take a trend line and we drag it
through here, this is what has me
thinking is if Meta does not recapture
this trend line right here at around 550
today, it is breaking a major trend line
and likely headed down to this gap fill
at 400. So keep that on your radar.
Where does Meta close today? Is there a
day trade? There is. For me, probably
520 right down here this pivot low. I
might day trade that right in that
vicinity. I'll keep my eyes on it. If it
breaks that, there's a gap fill at 500
right here as well that would be
interesting. Now, on the other side of
the coin, we have Microsoft. Now,
Microsoft is a rockstar. Huge move up on
Microsoft because of the the reasons I
just gave you guys. And then ultimately,
again, you can see here's the gap up.
Would I short this today as a day trade?
Only if it fills this gap around 460.
Otherwise, I'm staying on the sidelines
and I would not swing short this. This
is a great V bottom with a bull flag. It
makes sense it's starting to push up.
And honestly, those were good numbers.
And if any company starts keeping their
CapEx at least stationary and talks
about better cash flow, they're going to
rip up. It's just the nature of these
stocks out there. Other stocks in
motion, you have Chipotle up on
earnings. Starbucks, great move as well.
Almost like the anti-AI trade is the one
that's doing the better right now with
Starbucks and Chipotle. All right, we
got to get into gold and silver, guys,
um as well as oil and nat gas. Let's
quickly touch on oil here.
Oil is down a little bit. So, even with
the US bombing Iran overnight pretty
heavily, oil's coming in. That's good
for the markets. And it obviously brings
the 10-year yield slightly in as well
with inflation expectations. Natural
gas, if we look at this real quick, nat
gas had a little bit of a bounce
yesterday. Still holding above this key
long-term trend line on spot nat gas
prices. That is something to watch as
well. Now, gold. We're going to get into
something big here on gold, guys. Gold
is trying to break out above its wedge
pattern. Now, we're going to watch to
see where it breaks out. But I want to
show you guys something. All right. So,
I released my institutional level
research report. Okay? And this report,
folks, is literally institutional grade.
Institutions would like commission this
at like a million dollars. You guys get
it. You guys are going to get it for
free. It's on our website. I want to
show you where this thing is because it
will What I'm going to show you in this
gold and explain in and number two it
comes with a calculator. It is
incredible. So let's take a look. Here's
our website, right? So there I am on the
homepage, but what you want to do is you
want to create a free account, go to
member dashboard, and here is there's so
much alpha in here for free.
You can scroll through and see
everything like free charts that the pro
traders are giving technical levels,
whatever. It's so it's but here, this is
your institutional gold report. You
click on it, it talks about how the
cycle on gold is speeding up. It talks
about when the next bull cycle will peak
and at what price and I go through it. I
mean this is a as legit as you as they
come. And institutions can have this for
free, too. Everyone gets it for free. I
don't care, but it's at least at least
we're not playing this nonsense game
that the elites play, which is like,
"Oh, well, I'll give it to, you know,
the billionaires first." No. You guys
get it just like everyone else. That's
the VIP policy, right? Everyone should
be able to afford the information and
this in this case it's free. You just
got to create a free account. But the
point is is that it comes with a
calculator. And this calculator has
built I literally spent months building
this calculator. This is current
conditions. Debt issuance pace is 2
trillion for the US. Global money supply
growing at 7% fiat mistrust trend, which
is a calculation that I came up with in
terms of analyzing the current trust and
past trust of essentially fiat, which is
a key component in my opinion of gold,
and then real interest rates down here.
Now what's amazing here is if you just
use current conditions, the next peak on
gold according to the calculation is
between 2031 and 2033 at just over
$10,000. Now a lot of people would be
very happy with that, right? They say,
"Oh, this is great. That's that's a good
thing."
If you based on the metrics, the speed
at which debt is increasing, based on
that I think the US is I mean if if you
look at the next 5 years, do you think
that the US is only going to rack up 2
trillion continually a year or is it
going to slowly grind up? And the answer
is it's going to grind up. Do you think
that fiat mistrust is going to go up or
down over the next five years? I think
it's going to go up. I think we can all
agree on that, right? Um, do I think
that
um global money supply at which is
increasing at 7% a year, do I think it's
going to go up a little bit over the
next five years? Absolutely. When you do
the factors that I did and you click on
Garrett's base case, it punches the next
bull top on gold. And this is just the
top. It's not the next bull market where
we take out the highs. This is just
literally the top of the bull market,
2029 to 2031 at $13,000.
And again, it's a range, so it's it
could be between there, but the average
is approximately there and that is your
next bull target. Now, obviously, I
could be wrong and the data points could
change, but notice how it takes into
account an average of 2.8 trillion in US
debt issuance, 9% increase in the money
supply, accelerating de-dollarization.
All of these factors inclusive of of of
essentially central banks buying the
dollar and that's all in the research
report. And by the way, this is
interactive. You guys can say, "No, I
think I think debt issuance is going to
be 3.9 trillion." And look, it's going
to change the metrics. I you going to
you can say, "Oh, no, I think global
money supply is going to increase 16%."
Well, look, now you're at a $16,000
target. The point is you guys get this,
go play with it, have fun with it. It's
pretty powerful stuff. I will keep you
posted on my gold analysis if anything
changes. But very cool. Exciting. Really
excited to do that for you guys. Um, I
had fun creating it, going through the
metrics, um and hopefully you guys find
it of use just like all the data we do
here at Verified Investing. All right,
we got to get back to the charts. I want
to finish out with silver here real
quick, guys. Uh on silver,
let's take a look. Uh silver is up
slightly. I still am not a fan of this
chart. If I had to choose between the
two, gold is the better one even though
it hasn't broken out yet. At least it's
up against its resistance versus silver
is still down quite a bit below it. All
right, lastly Bitcoin I still am bullish
near-term on Bitcoin. It is up today.
Watching we need to see a break of
67,000. If we get that, it's a rock and
roll. All right, long episode today, but
there was a lot to discuss. Remember
Amazon and Apple earnings after the
bell. That will be big. You guys are
amazing for sticking with me for
commenting, liking, subscribing. Thank
you. Share with friends and family,
guys. I love you all. Have a great one.
Take care.