Trading The Close | July 30, 2026

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Transcript

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>> Hello everybody. Welcome to Trading the
Close. My name is Drew Dosik. Now guys,
what a rip-roaring rocket rally that we
had today. Now we did talk about this
this week how we are on the warning
track of the semis potentially getting a
nice bounce up in the markets.
Everything lifted up today. We had some
key drivers in that. We did miss GDP
numbers first thing in the morning.
That was a slight miss, which likely
should help reduce the chances of a rate
hike. Although the Fed rate hike tools
actually increased today for potential
hike in September. We'll see how that
all pans out. However, then we did also
have some news coming out of Asia. The
yen and the Bank of Japan is likely
intervening on that currency, driving
the dollar down, which helped lift up
the markets, too. We're going to take a
look at that chart. Plus we had the
backdrop of earnings going on. Microsoft
exploded today, pushing up more than
10%, and we've got the war going on in
the Middle East. So much to go through,
but let's get to the charts now, get
looking at some
some stocks that are having earnings,
excuse me. So much going on today. We
got earnings going on to go over. Plus
we got viewer requests, guys. Good show
again today. So let's get into some
charts. We've got the S&P 500 as you see
here. Nasty sell day yesterday. What did
I say on the show repeatedly, guys? One
candle back into the parallel. That was
it. It was one candle. I was like, today
we needed to follow up, put in a daily
close underneath yesterday's low, and we
did not do that. Matter of fact, we
gapped up above that parallel. Almost
like price action doesn't want to get
back into this parallel like some sort
of poison is is contained in here. Every
time we have breached it, it's quickly
returned right back up. So, that leaves
us now pointing towards the upside.
After-hours markets are pushing up
slightly. Tomorrow, we'll see if we gap
up over this level of resistance. If we
do not, it should be intraday resistance
at $744.02.
If we gap up over that level, the
intraday resistance for tomorrow will be
at $749.
Next up into the Qs, also big bounce,
guys. You notice we closed 2 days ago
basically just a hair up above level at
674.90. Yesterday, clearly closed
underneath it, but we didn't have any
follow-through and confirming push
lower. That's what's susceptible. Guys,
this is how the markets can whip you out
of positions. The confirming signal is
really everything because what it does,
again, even if price were to go back up,
say we confirmed underneath it today, we
would likely pause here at this previous
support area as resistance. Pause for at
least a couple days, giving you a
heads-up that, guys, we're knocking on
the door to go back higher. Without a
confirming signal, we can have
situations arise like today where price
collapses underneath a level, then the
next day we find ourselves opening right
near the level and pushing up through
it. So, the Qs clearly displayed that
power
of the confirmation signal that did not
happen on that chart with the breakdown,
but it did happen on this trend line. We
did make a move down and move lower,
confirming this close. So, that leaves
me to point to this level as resistance,
$695.25.
Near-term resistance potentially could
even be hit tomorrow. Now, next, guys,
on the semiconductors, the SMH. Right
here, you see price action as we stated
closed under that 50% area of the
parallel. That also put us at about 25%
down from the top, as you can see here,
just about almost 25%.
That was about due for a time to bounce.
If you recall, look back on these other
time cycle examples that I've displayed
and given to you on this show. Last time
we went up over 200% on the SMH, we drew
down about 30% and then we saw a bounce
a corresponded that took us up about
29%. So, we we may be due for that sort
of bounce. We're right there in that
range. A 30% drop would have taken us
right down here near the bottom of that
parallel channel. So, I actually was
angling for that, but again, we didn't
get a confirming push lower. Instead, we
got a nice rebound, but look where price
stopped today because we did confirm
back into the parallel. So, we did stop
today right here on the top of the
parallel, right around $545.
And then we pulled right back in. You
could see the power of that confirmation
signal again displayed right here on the
SMH chart. Now, very well, tomorrow with
continued momentum even after hours, we
could gap up over that level, but that
was your warning today. The pullback
right here tomorrow, be watching for an
open at 5 4636. If we open above that
level, then that leaves us open to then
retrace the breakdown that occurred from
this trend line here at 58138 is the
next resistance. Next up into the dollar
as I touched on with the yen, guys, look
at the collapse of the dollar. Anytime
something like this happens in the near
term, it's immediately going to lift up
some stocks cuz think of it like this,
if your dollar doesn't have as much
buying power, well, then the stock price
is actually going to go higher. That
just kind of makes sense. Same thing
with Bitcoin, gold, silver. And whenever
you have immediate moves on the dollar,
those other
commodities and Bitcoin, commodity,
whatever,
it goes up because again, the power of
the dollar is less. It will get you less
of those things. So, generally that will
go up.
Along with the stock market, too. Now,
it doesn't go tick for tick, but when
you have a big move, such as what's
going on here on the dollar, big
collapse yesterday, closing back within
this parallel, today pushing down
further, confirming the move in the
parallel. Again, making this all a
failed breakout attempt. We had a
beautiful breakout, it held it. We even
had a near-term breakout from this
consolidation. Failed. Did not get the
bounce. The bounce play I was
anticipating yesterday did not come
today because of what was going on over
in Japan. So, we look at this on the
chart here. We're back into this
parallel. Likely destination could be
the 50% area at 98.89.
However, we should have a stopping spot
right here about 99.53
on the chart of the DXY. Next up into
gold. You see here, gold with that drop
in the dollar did what it finally has
been trying to do and get a move and
close above of this declining trend
line. Look how many days. 1 2 3 4 5 6
and then 7 accomplished that feat,
closing above. Same thing that we
described on the Qs as well as SMH. One
candle above doesn't secure it. We'll
see if we get a follow-up move pushing
higher than today's close, which then
would make this declining trend line
support for any curling back over, even
if it's lower than current price. This
could be an area for a bounce to retest
that parallel if we get failed uh uh uh
entrance into that parallel as early as
tomorrow right around $4,195.
Next up into silver. Also a nice
positive day, getting itself back above
the 50% area of the parallel. Other than
that, not too much new to report. We
will have resistance coming up here at
$63.26.
That's a little bit of near-term
resistance you can spot right here on
this trend line from pivot to pivot. And
then near-term going to be right here
today at $59.75.
We'll see if we can push up over that at
least for the near-term tomorrow on
silver. Still I'm anticipating silver
and gold to come down, but we could be
due for a near-term bounce. Not too much
new to report though on this next chart
of US oil, guys. Basically down half a
percent, uh maintaining where uh price
action closed yesterday. Near-term
resistance right here, 86.17. If we get
back above that, uh, I'm going to be
angling 96.44 for the next push up on US
oil. Next up into nat gas, not too much
to uh, report here either except for
price action's doing a good job trying
to stay above this previous support
level and then keep and remain that
level as support. Right now, you see
trading just slightly above it. We were
beneath it but earlier but this wick is
promising trying to push price back up
and maintain this level at least for the
near term. If it can do so, next stop
for resistance will be up here $2.90.
Uh, next up into Bitcoin, not too much
new to report here except for this is
looking more and more like an inverse
head and shoulders pattern for at least
the near term. Uh, resistance will be
right here on the chart, $67,300
but in order to trigger the inverse head
and shoulders pattern, it's going to
occur just slightly before, right around
$66,851.
For those that don't know how to measure
uh, or put together a measured move with
an inverse head and shoulders pattern,
pay attention guys. You just draw a
trend line right there from the head.
Get that same trend line up to where
price could break and more importantly
is where it does break. So, this is
hypothetical for right now but that
gives you your destination, $76,276
if and when price can break the
threshold of the neckline for that
inverse head and shoulders. That doesn't
get it out of the woods, guys. As you
see here, it still would be contained in
bearish consolidation which still then
does leave for a potential chance for us
to break that parallel even after a
near-term pop here on Bitcoin.
Uh, next up guys, big movers on the day.
Look at this chart of Microsoft. Now,
this is on the weekly time frame, guys.
You can see that W hidden back amongst
those candles. This is on the weekly
time frame, all right? So, I did this to
start to show you the large parallel
that Microsoft had been in for the most
of this this duration, all the way back
since November of 2022. And you see here
price recently broke down in March, got
back in in May as well as in June, and
then failed. Came back down creating a
very nice weekly bottoming tail right
here and implying that we were going to
hold this level of support and push up,
but it wasn't looking all that rosy for
Microsoft until today, guys. Look at the
pattern that was developing here. It was
a nice bounce, but we weren't getting up
and testing that parallel, but today we
just jumped up over it, used that energy
we would have used to get through this
parallel and just accelerated up on the
chart. Very nice move here on Microsoft.
Why did it stop here, guys, and not get
up to the tip of this pivot? Well,
largely because look at this trend line.
Just draw from this pivot high, take it
over to connect to this pivot high. What
do we get? Oh, would you just look at
that, a magical trend line. Once again,
what hit would this be, too, folks? One
hit, two hit, three hit, sharp move into
it, should have a pullback. That's
exactly what occurred at least today.
Got as high as $458.69,
and then pulled back to close there as
you see at 451. So, a nice 1 and 1/2 to
2% pullback. And uh you can see here,
this is the line in the sand for
Microsoft to continue pushing up on the
charts. Right there if uh for the next
couple days around $458.
If we're able to do that, that opens the
door for a move all the way back up to
the 50% area of the parallel right at
$500. Notice that is also right amongst
this M in this M pattern over here on
Microsoft. So, that should be strong
resistance if and when Microsoft can
break this first trend line.
Uh next up, B E to show you the
continued push on B E. Now, they did
have earnings here, had a great pop, but
ended up selling off towards the end of
the day with a big sell off in the
markets after the FOMC yesterday, but
today the rally continued. Look at this
pop. 26% up on the day, closing above
the first key level of resistance, but
that does open the door for a continued
confirming you'd above the first
resistance on this nice bounce that can
target the 23162. Guys, let me remind
you this is all based off of parallel
analysis. If you can locate these
parallels, draw them on your charts,
guys, they will give you some of the
best trade setups near term. I was
giving this to our live day trading room
over the last couple days saying, "Hey,
I'm just inching in. I'm just inching
in, dipping my toes in the water. This
is a great decline coming down to the
bottom of a parallel with it being the
third hit of a parallel." The third hits
have the highest probabilities of
generating a very good bounce, likely
headed up here to the bottom of this M
pattern right around $231.62
before we start maybe consolidating or
developing another pattern. But, for
right now, the trade is off of the
bottom of the parallel and aggressive
destination up here at $231.62.
Next up, guys, got a couple of viewer
requests. First up from Robert Trueax.
And guys, thank you so much for the
viewer request. You guys really, really
help me out a whole bunch, not only
bringing content that you specifically
like, but I really appreciate the
feedback helping to make this a better
show for everybody. So, first up for
Robert, we got this uh chart here on AU.
Also, starting out on the weekly time
frame to illustrate this declining trend
line that's taken place. Notice also on
the weekly time frame, whenever you get
big red candles, guys, throw up your own
red flag. This is a big sign. Look at
how we had nice green candles moving up
and then a huge reversal candle. That's
your sign, "Oh my gosh, I need to get
out of this stock, or at least I need to
be planning for an exit on a potential
bounce." You can see the bounce took us
up within that red candle. So, you had
an opportunity, even if you missed it
here, you're like, "Oh my gosh, oh my
gosh." And wait for the bounce, boom,
get out, and then let the rest happen.
And that's exactly what's happened on
AU. Gone down very nicely, caught
support at 75.95.
We flip into the daily time frame. Most
importantly for this, we have been all
consolidating in the top 50% of this
parallel channel. Now, I know all of
this is still going down, but that at
least is the one positive for AU at this
moment. Near term though, look at this.
Downward move, sideways consolidation.
That's still all bearish consolidation.
So, AU's got a lot of work to do to
start getting back into positive
territory. This more for me is leaning
near term likely for a fall down at
6340. That aligns with that bigger and
larger bearish pattern on both gold as
well as silver where I anticipate
further declines on those metals. If I'm
wrong there, and we can get out of this
bear flag pattern, well then AU can come
up and attack the top end of this
parallel, in which I think there will be
a lot of resistance there, too. Right
around $91. Notice again, uh consistency
with this show, guys. One hit, two hit,
three hit. What's that likely going to
do if AU runs straight up into that
level without any sort of consolidation,
building momentum to help it get
through? Well, it's likely going to get
rejected. So, we'll see if that ends up
being the case on AU. Next up, guys, we
got some earnings after the bell. And
you can see here with Roblox, and I had
to start on the weekly chart with this
one, too, to illustrate, guys, look at
all the movement on the stock. Now
erasing all of these gains up here near
the $140, $150 price range, and we're
not stopping yet. Looks like we're
coming lower. Look what's happened. We
closed today at 4867.
Now we're gapping underneath this
inclining trend line. This is a
long-term one, guys. One when which
price has really been fighting all of
these weeks to stay above. Even near
term, you can see with this declining
trend line, we broke above it. That was
near term positive of head of this
earnings for Roblox, and we quickly gave
it all back up. The signal though for
you guys that this likely was going to
be a tough earnings occurred right here
on the week of July 20th when price went
back down underneath this declining
trend line and we could not save
ourselves and get out of it. So, we see
price headed down lower next support at
3921. We flip over into the daily time
frame and we can see here and this was
um
this is a nice fall. This support if it
gets broken guys, we could be coming
down here on Roblox sub $30 right around
2909. If you're a bull, you want to see
whatever can happen to keep price above
3921.
You notice that would be a new low near
term on Roblox. It would be lower than
this low here at $40 and $0.15. Just
want to see that price hold, go back up
and attack that inclining trend line we
pointed out at 4550, get back into some
bullish scenario stance on that chart.
Next up Amazon ripping higher looking
like Microsoft's chart here guys. Look
at it pushing up right into this M
pivot. We should be hitting the brakes
right about here on after-hours push,
but Microsoft and all these others
really had some built-up energy for
buying pressure. We'll see where this
ends up tomorrow. One spot that I'm at
least interested in right now for
tomorrow pivot top to pivot top much
like you see right here on the screen.
If we run right into that level tomorrow
guys, $265
and right around $0.50. That area should
see an awful lot of resistance, but in
order for it to do something like that
which is would be highly highly unlikely
cuz that would be a move up over 12% on
Amazon. Can anything happen? Sure it
can. But my gosh guys, that would be one
stout move. Let's see where we went
though as high so far in after-hours
$258.
That puts us right up here in the range
of these high pivots and prices has hit
the brakes at least for now. So, we'll
see where price action ends up near to
medium-term destination on that
declining trend line right around $264.
If we don't open above this 50% area the
parallel tomorrow, that will be
resistance at $252.51.
Next up, First Solar also reporting
earnings and guys, doesn't this chart
look pretty similar to BE? Cuz guys, it
really does. However, BE was a much
cleaner setup with pivot to pivot and
third hit of this trend line. FSLR does
not have that same story, guys. We have
a trend line that has been hit on the
bottom end multiple times. Once, twice,
three times, four times, five times, six
times with the push through and then we
did push through under this parallel,
confirmed under it. Then the following
day, what did we do? We paused right
here at the bottom of the parallel. Much
like what I've been telling you guys,
when we confirm, at least we're going to
have another day of pause of resistance,
giving you a heads-up that we likely
could break it. And look at the daily
close that occurred here on that candle.
Very tiny
uh close candle bar, but a big wick on
the bottom implying buyers were stepping
in with any bit of selling that occurred
today, helping price get elevated back
into the parallel channel. If we start
to close in here tomorrow and confirm,
next destination $231.42.
Next up, Rivian also reported earnings
after the bell. So far, it looks
somewhat muted. $16.93
a push off of about 10 cents after
hours. Looks like we got as high as
$17.48.
So that still didn't really get us out
of the current range that we're in. Look
at this interesting parallel on the
chart here of Rivian. Every time we've
hit the bottom and it's done so now four
times, man, we've had really, really
nice pushes. You can see here from the
bottom up to this high, 64% from this
bottom up to the top, 97%
from this most recent bottom up here,
44% that tells me if Rivian's going to
start selling, I'm going to be
interested to buy down here at the
bottom of the parallel. Even though it's
hit so many times, I'll just average
down to the next pivot if I have to
because what happens when price breaks
the bottom of a parallel, folks?
It likes to go find support and run
right back up and attack the bottom of
that parallel. So, that could be an
interesting play moving in the future
considering the consistency of these
bounces that has occurred on the chart
of Rivian. Now, dating back all the way
to about April of 2024. So, we're
talking about a 2-year trend with those
sorts of bounces. Uh next up, Apple.
This kind of could be expected, guys.
Isn't this the inverse of what we were
looking at with BE coming into earnings?
We were selling off coming into earnings
and we got a uh a very nice bounce. Any
small bit of news that's good whenever
price is jamming down into earnings
likely will lift it because it's all
baked in already, all the bad news. Any
slight glimmer of hope gives it a light
nice push up. Now, the opposite's true
when price runs straight up into
earnings, the likelihood for a drawdown
and profit taking, even if earnings are
fantastic, it increases and that's
what's happening right here on the chart
of Apple. So, if Apple continues down,
we have an interesting level of support
right here around $315.
Previous pivot high, another previous
pivot high. That could be a destination
for a near-term bounce tomorrow, likely
even a day trade. You can see there's a
gap fill here also, $314.86.
Now, if we continue selling off further,
notice how there's convergence here with
this inclining portion of the top end of
the parallel channel, the old one in
which we broke out of, and the 50% area
of the parallel, right around $306 to
$307
will be the next stop there on the chart
of Apple. All right, guys. Man, that
wraps up today's trade in the close and
the week's trade in the close. We had a
boatload of data. We had the FOMC, we
had GDP, we had infla- inflation data,
we had earnings galore, plus we had an
escalation in the war. We survived. Lots
of great trades this week.
Congratulations to everybody that did
hop on them, join me with some of these
trades, particularly with BE. What an
awesome uh double-dip scenario on that
stock. Thank you so much for watching,
guys. I look forward to bringing back
some great info next week on Monday.
Don't forget to like and subscribe. Send
this out to your friends and family so
they too can learn technical analysis on
the charts. Until next Monday, guys,
have a fantastic weekend. Be safe and
I'll see you guys right here on the
charts. Take care, everybody.
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