My Trading Game Plan | July 31, 2026

AI Summary

Transcript

My name is Gareth Soloway and I was a
losing trader until I mastered technical
[music] analysis. Logic and charts beat
hype and narratives every time. Now I
teach investors the same techniques
[music] that made me a
multi-millionaire. This is my trading
game plan.
Good morning everybody and happy Friday.
My name is Gareth Soloway, chief market
strategist here at
verifiedinvesting.com.
And as always we're about to dive into
the charts and the data. What is going
on in the markets today? Looks to me
like the markets are basically holding
steady. We were up in the overnight.
We're still seeing some gains in
technology. That's extending the move
from yesterday, but what a rally that
was. I gave you a heads up in this game
plan over the last few days. I said,
"Guys, I am buying semiconductors." I
showed you charts of SanDisk coming into
major support. We talked about the
KOSPI, the South Korean stock market,
how it was into support. And I even
liked yesterday morning's price action,
how from the night before the KOSPI was
only down 1% after being halted twice
before for massive down moves. All of
that bringing a massive rally in the
semiconductors. Um, if you're with us in
Smart Money Stocks and ETFs, we made
over $100,000
in that live portfolio yesterday.
Absolutely incredible. All right. So,
let's get into the data today and
charts. Starting out with the futures.
This was yesterday's price action.
Overnight we kind of ground higher. Now
we're seeing a little bit of a fade
here. Now this has been an exhausting
week. If you're like me and you paid
attention to all the earnings, I mean
Meta, Microsoft, now Amazon and Apple
and all of the ancillary semiconductor
numbers, then the Federal Reserve and
what went on there on Wednesday
afternoon. And then obviously the big
rally yesterday. It's been tiring, but
unbelievable volatility, which to me
breeds profits. So, S&P 500 right now,
basically flat to positive going into
the open. It could be a little bit of a
quieter day as the market is kind of
hung over from the insanity. I know my
traders and I feel a little bit more on
the tired side. That's pretty normal
when it's that intense and you're that
zoned in for the whole entire trading
week. Now, if we go to the S&P daily
chart, this is where things get even
more interesting. So, we look at this
trendline going back to the bull market
high of 2021, the pivot high here in
2025.
We attacked it once, twice, then we
closed below it by a fraction. But,
remember what I said to you, we need to
see confirmation.
What's confirmation? Confirmation to
confirm a breakdown or breakout, we need
another close below the low of that
prior day. So, we closed below here, we
needed a close below the low of that
day. That confirms the breakdown. It did
not happen. The market got saved. So, we
got saved right now, which means the
bull market is still technically intact,
although I remain a skeptic and I'll
tell you why, is because in technical
analysis, what I've discovered through
27 years at this point of study, is that
when you have a trendline, right? So,
let's look at a trendline here. Here's a
trendline. And when you hammer on a
trendline, the first time you hit it,
the bounce odds are about 80 plus
percent. Okay, you bounce. You hit it
again,
the bounce odds are about 70%. Bounce.
You hit it again, they're about 60%.
Problem is, this is one, two, three. By
the fourth hit, the odds are 50/50
you're going to break. And if you bounce
again, the odds just keep increasing.
Okay, so again, remember, everything I
do is a study of probability looking at
historical data through all markets, and
these are things that I've discovered.
And so, while we're bouncing third hit,
it did favor a bounce, even though it
closed below, never confirmed. The
concern is
if we come down again, let's say in a
week or two,
is that the break point? And if it is,
as I've said to you guys, the odds then
start to move to a bigger down move to
this level around 7,000 on the S&P. So,
we'll keep an eye on that, guys, but
certainly fascinating to study the
charts. If you're like me, this is the
stuff I live for. I mean, it's so
exciting to me. It might seem weird, but
I love that I can study something and it
gives me the ability to be the casino
versus the gambler, and I literally can
make money from this study. Not every
time. I certainly have my fumbles in
trading where I make bad decisions or
the probabilities don't work out, but if
I can just be that casino and win a
majority of the time, the math over time
takes care of itself. All right. Let's
take a look. The KOSPI, is that an
incredible move or what? 18%
rally in their stock market overnight.
Obviously, a majority of that was
Samsung and SK Hynix, but again, surging
to the upside. Remember just yesterday's
game plan, we talked about how there was
a ton of support right in this zone.
Look at where it pulled back, bounced,
pulled back, bounced, and then ripped,
and we came full circle back to that
level. It makes sense it was going to
bounce. Now, the question is, are we
going back to all-time highs? Because as
we start It's so funny, right? You know,
I was tuning in to CNBC and such, and I
was looking at it and and you know,
yesterday they were like, "Oh, this is a
rough market, da da da." You know, like
so much. And then today, "Oh, well, the
AI trade's still intact, right? Well, of
course, now that it bounces, their
narrative switches right back. But,
understand that that has an impact on
retail investors. So, now retail
investors are like, oh, I got to buy the
dip. They're going to run in. I don't
think we go back to all-time highs. I'm
pretty sure the top is in at this point
on the semis at least. I don't know
about the S&P. The S&P is still holding
that trend line. But, after a correction
of 50-60%
on SanDisk, the amount of investors that
are stuck in those trades,
they are going to be basically they're
they're in panic mode. They're just
hoping it bounces, and they will be
unloading as it comes up. And again,
it's not to say that the the AI trade is
over. Just like the dot-com, it it yes,
the bubble burst back then, but then
I mean, we all use the internet today
every single day on you know, literally
most of the day probably. So, the idea
is again, if we look at something like a
SanDisk here, SNDK,
this was that trend line we talked
about. Incredible even number pierce of
a thousand, and it's now already gained
35%
off of that level. What would I do here?
Well, for me, I'm going to look and see
where it bounces. I have a very
intriguing trend line right through
here. So, if we were to get in again,
notice this right here, guys, is you
have your low pivot,
pierced here, and then notice how it
broke and then it retraced. So, if this
were to rally up into this level here,
that then becomes my short. Now, the way
I work, is I look for a secondary
factor, and this is all training. And I
want to be clear on this, guys. I am no
different than any of you. Some of most
of you probably are smarter than me,
right? My average IQ, what I do have is
work ethic, where I study. I study this
stuff, and I learn it. I I never take no
for an answer in that way. I'm just
like, I will get this. I will improve.
And as long as you have that, you can do
everything I've done in my career. I'm
confident of that. And so the idea is is
that we want to find a secondary factor
which gives us the higher odds. And when
I do this, look, 618 right there.
So that would be if And again, there's
this isn't if if it comes up there,
what do I do? Well, now I know. Two
factors at around 1,800 or just above,
I'll be shorting Sandis. Now, it may not
go that high. Okay, no big deal. Then I
move on to the next trade. There are so
many trades. When you trade commodities
and you know,
crypto and stocks and you know, I mean
there's just always a trade available.
So I never worry about like, oh darn, I
missed it. Okay, I I miss literally
every day I miss 100 trades. It's about
the three that I took or the four that I
took or the the one that I took that
day.
Was it a high probability? Did I make
money on it? And that's all I care
about. I look at my P&L at the end of
the month, not each day, because I will
have losing days. It's just the nature
of being a trader or an investor. And at
the end of the month, at the end of the
quarter, at the end of the year. And the
bigger the time frame, that's the more
important one. All right. So let's
continue on here, guys. The US dollar
yen, the dollar yen yesterday took a
massive tumble. I've been warning about
this for literally the last few weeks
saying this is a risk. It didn't really
have a big impact on the market
yesterday, mainly because the semis were
just so powerful, but we need to
continue to watch this. Does it continue
down or are we worse And we're seeing it
now, the dollar yen is bouncing back up.
And remember, if this is going up, it's
telling you the yen is weakening against
the dollar versus a drop like this tells
you the dollar's, you know, essentially
weakening against the yen. All right,
now, look at the dollar.
Big drop. Yes, it's bouncing today.
My issue here is gold actually had an
okay bounce. It tried to peak above my
trend line,
but the dollar drop was massive.
I am not thrilled and I'm a huge
long-term bull on gold, but I was not
thrilled at the bounce gold saw.
It was a very small bounce relative to
the size. The DXY dropped a dollar 75.
That's a huge two-day drop. And if we
look here, you can see it. So, number
one, we knew we were into resistance,
right? I've been talking about this zone
for a long, long time. But here we fell
and you'd say, "Okay, well, gold
probably up $300, $200." We go to gold
here
and look at this.
That's the two-day move you got on gold.
It peaked above and then look, slammed
right back down today. Now, it's not to
say it can't break out, but right now
that was just disappointing. If you're a
gold bull
the price action on the drop in the
dollar was disappointing the last couple
days. Now, some of that could have to do
with interest rates. The 30-year, which
is the long end of the curve, that is up
again today. I mean, this thing is just
relentless which is going to crush
housing even more because getting
mortgages is just getting it more and
more expensive at this time. But
incredible move there on that. We'll
keep an eye on it. I will keep you guys
posted. Same thing on silver, by the
way. As long as we're talking about
this, we can touch base on silver. Look
at the bounce on silver the last couple
days and today basically right back
towards the lows.
And again, this is I've said this is a
weak chart. When you're below two major
trend lines and going sideways, it's
opening the door for more downside and I
still think I mean, at least we're going
to pierce 54 in my humble opinion. I
think there's about 80% chance of that.
Piercing 50, I still think there's about
a 70% chance that we pierce 50 on silver
before the bottom is in and the question
then becomes, if we do, do we go lower
than 50? I don't know that yet. I'm
still studying the charts. Now, speaking
of which, check this out, guys. I showed
this to you yesterday.
But this is pride and joy and like I
said in yesterday's game plan
you know, this research report that I
released on gold, this is the level of
institutions where they will pay
millions of dollars for this type of
report. I refuse to even think about
that. It is all about giving it out for
free. So, the idea here is you go to our
website, you click here, you have to
sign you have to create a free account,
right? But right over here, and by the
way, just check out all of the data that
we have here
on our
dashboard. There's so much stuff here
that you guys have access to. But here's
your gold research report, and again, it
is available. You get it. This is my
projection, my forecast of gold. Again,
when will the next bull run come? When
will it peak? What will the peak be?
I've broken it all down into this
in-depth, like hardcore in-depth
research report. And again,
you guys can read it, and not only that,
but click here, and you get your own
calculator to figure out. So, all the
forces, I have five forces that I talk
about that affect gold price. And you
get to put them you can basically adjust
to figure out what you think your target
is going to be on gold, and when will
that peak that next peak hit? But all of
this is interactive, guys, and you can
see all these numbers over here change.
My base case,
right here.
The next peak, not by the way, the peak
is much higher. So, we'll we'll take out
the all-time highs on gold much sooner
than that. But the next peak, 2029 to
2031, at an average price somewhere in
the range of 13,000. It's It's
technically a range, but again, right in
that average price will be a 13,000
on gold. All right? Now, some people
will say, "Oh, I think it's going to be
higher." Some people will say it's
lower. That That's what probably means
it's pretty accurate. The fact that no
one's going to, you know, you have your
positives and your negatives. But that's
for you guys at verifiedinvesting.com.
All you need to do is create a free
account. There's nothing There's no
paywall on it
to get access. You just have to have an
account with us here at Verified
Investing. So, check it out. It's a lot
of fun to play around with the
calculator, but when you read the
research report, you start to really
understand the driving forces about I
talk about how the cycles in gold are
shortening, right? If you go 2019 80
high to 2011, that was a long cycle
where we didn't make a new high on gold
and we didn't have a bull run. Then you
see the next cycle shorten more, and the
cycles are shortening because the amount
of US debt and global debt is increasing
exponentially. You have money supply
global M2 is increasing very, very
quickly and will increase faster. Real
interest rates are our condition there.
The mistrust of fiat index is is a
factor. All of these factors and more go
into this. Check it out. All right,
let's get back to the charts here, guys,
as always, um, but again, just wanted to
talk a little bit about that. Now, let's
go back here and take a look. Let's go
on to some movers and shakers. Amazon
today surging up on earnings. What a
move on Amazon, folks. Again, Microsoft
had like its biggest move ever gaining
half a trillion dollars in market cap.
Absolutely incredible. Amazon, I
believe, is up about 10% on the day.
There is a level we're watching today to
trade, and that level is right up here
around 270. I will be looking to day
trade this. Now, would I go long or
short as a swing trade? The answer's not
at this point. I don't have a good
enough read. So, I have to let the dust
settle, but as a day trade, I'll be
eyeing this 270-ish zone right up there
on Amazon. Apple.
Yikes. Now, listen, if you've been
listen, we had this as a short and smart
money stocks and ETFs, right? So, if
you're a member, we took our profits
yesterday after hours. I think it was
about a 7,000 gain. If you want, go to
the the smart money page on Verified
Investing, you'll see the track record.
It's fully transparent. You see my exact
entries, exact exits. And if you're a
member, you literally see my live
account right there as well with how
many shares and in real time P&L. So,
it's it's pretty cool. But, the point is
again is that Apple, look at how it was
up up against major resistance. And then
look at 2 days ago. Do you guys know
what this candle is called, this candle
formation? That's a topping tail. That
means institutions were dumping
into retail buying into earnings. And
then today, where's it trading? All the
way down here. I mean, this was a There
were so many signs of downside, which is
why we were short in smart money stocks
and ETFs. It was awesome. Now, in terms
of a trade, where am I eyeing here?
Right here, guys. 300 pierce. I will be
watching for a day trade on that. As a
swing trade, where would I be a buyer?
Maybe here. There's basically a parallel
channel. So, maybe around 275 pivot low.
Look at the Look at this line is
parallel to that line. That would give
me an opportunity for maybe a swing
trade. Roblox. What a drop on Roblox
here, guys. Incredible fall.
Um
this is a very volatile stock.
The level for trading this, I'm probably
looking around 35 and a half dollars on
this. It's not that far away. I'll keep
you guys posted. Obviously, if you're in
my trading room, you'll get the
real-time entry. Uh you'll see the
position on your screen, etc. But, this
is a good opportunity right down here.
But, it's got to get down to about
35.50. But, massive drop on that. And
then Reddit. Look at Reddit. Just keeps
going lower. Dropped yesterday after
hours on earnings. Overnight action was
muted. Then it's having another flush
here into the open. And Reddit again had
kind of been grinding higher. Now it's
coming in. My pivot point is at 140. 140
right here.
This area right in here should be a good
day tradeable level. Now, in all
fairness, I haven't talked a lot of
swing trades because
there just aren't a lot of great setups.
Now, just a day or two ago, I was
pounding the table saying, "Guys, I'm
buying semis. I'm buying semis." Then
most semis were up 20% plus yesterday. I
mean, Bloom Energy was up like 30%
yesterday. It was incredible. A lot of
them are going further today.
I'm not ready to short them yet.
I have to let And listen, it may mean I
miss the trade, and that's okay. But I
have to stick to the discipline. And the
discipline is something that it doesn't
come overnight, guys. So, don't be upset
if you know, you the emotions I still
have emotions. I've been able to clamp
them down quite a bit, but it doesn't
doesn't happen overnight. I mean, 27
years of trading, I've just done so many
trades that you start to just become
robotic.
That's the way you want to ultimately be
so that you always rely on probabilities
versus emotion. Most of us trade on
emotion.
There's a reason why retail suffers as
much as it does. It's because they're
emotionally decision-making versus logic
decision-making. All right, couple other
things here, guys.
Natural gas is basically flat today.
I still don't really see much on this.
You know, it's bounced a little bit.
It's not a technical support, so I'm
leaving it be. Crude oil today, if we
take a look at that, it is pushing back
up. It's pushing up into the weekend,
which makes sense. There's
uncertainties. Is it going to escalate
over the weekend when the markets are
closed? We'll watch to see where that
goes. Um but nonetheless, no trade here.
Again, I shorted going into last
weekend. We took profits. It was a great
trade there. Uh just sitting on the
sidelines. And then lastly, Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is still technically bullish. I
don't love the price action today,
though. But this is the line. It's got
to hold this 63,000 level right here.
You can see how Look at how every low
pivot, boom, boom, boom, and boom,
that's that line. So, as long as we hold
that, I would I would give a cup and
handle pattern uh the benefit of the
doubt for a move up here, eventually
breaking out above 67,000 to 71, 72. But
again, if it breaks this, I would start
to get concerned we're going to retest
lows and even go lower. And on my
channel I did a
deep dive into the cycles and I still I
don't think Bitcoin's bottomed yet. You
know, I still think there's short-term
potential for upside, but I still think
we're headed lower on Bitcoin,
unfortunately,
based on the cycle analysis on my
channel that I put out the video on
today. All right, I got to get going to
my trading room, guys. You guys are
rockstars. Thank you so much for the
kind words, supporting Verified
Investing, sharing, liking, telling your
friends and family.
We'll always do our best. We won't
always be right, but we're going to base
our decisions on data and logic. That's
what it is here at Verified Investing.
You guys have a great rest of your day
and thanks again for tuning in. Take
care.