The Weekly Wrap-up | July 31, 2026

This week's trades, market movers, and
technical levels that count, wrapped
[music] up with clarity and precision.
This is weekly wrap-up with Verified
Investing.
>> Hey everybody, welcome to this Friday's
weekly wrap-up. My name is Gareth
Soloway, chief market strategist at
verifiedinvesting.com.
And what a week it was. We had the
Federal Reserve and the commentary by
Kevin Warsh that obviously tanked the
markets initially, but then the
semiconductors, which had been getting
crushed early in the week, came roaring
back with the Cospi rallying 18% last
night, and that saved the day. Add into
that Microsoft earnings as well as
Amazon earnings with monster 15% gains
on those stocks, and it did save the
markets from a bigger breakdown. Now,
going into next week, we're not out of
the woods just yet, but the market on a
technical basis held the trend line that
it needed to hold. So, we're going to
dive into that chart here right now.
Let's take a look. Here is the daily
S&P. Now, the daily S&P was up 7/10 of
1% today, but more importantly, it's
this trend line, right? This is the one
that I've been talking about in all of
my game plans and all of these wrap-ups.
And we have this high pivot going back
to the bull market of 2021. Now, that's
not an arbitrary high. I'm using that
specifically
because it was the bull market high. We
take it to its highest point here in
2025, right there. And if we look, we
had a breakdown on the S&P, and we came
back, we hit it, we bounced, hit it
again, we bounced, and then we did see
that close below, but remember, if it
doesn't confirm, it could be a fake-out.
And it never confirmed with a secondary
close below of that breakdown candle. In
fact, instead, we saw a bounce back
above and the rally was back on. Really
remarkable stuff. I mean, again, to
watch the charts in action, if you're
like me, you just it amazes me to watch
how levels work, how trend lines work,
how if you understand confirmation, you
don't get fooled on a real breakdown
versus a fake breakdown. Amazing stuff.
So, here we are with the bounce now 2
days in a row. This brings back into
focus whether or not will we go attack
this trend line here, this high pivot to
these high pivots. That'll be first
resistance, maybe hit as early as Monday
at around 7555.
So, watch that closely. We get through
that, we should attack the all-time
highs and potentially go higher. Now,
in spite of every crazy headline this
week, and again, we had bombings going
on between Iran and the US and oil
spiking back up early in the week, then
coming back by the mid portion of the
week, and then bouncing around, but we
also had the dollar yen. And again, this
has been something I've been worrying
about that there might have to be
intervention because the yen was
weakening so much against the US dollar.
Take a look, guys. Look at this 2-day
drop in the dollar yen. Now, the
positive for us as investors is that in
the history of the dollar yen, when
we've had these interventions and steep
drops,
it has caused a fear factor in the stock
market that has caused it to collapse.
Because the S&P focused on the
semiconductors,
and that has been such a major trade
plus the earnings from Microsoft and
Amazon, the market generally has ignored
that factor so far. I don't know if
that'll continue into next week, but
right now it hasn't impacted the markets
at this point. Now, another factor
that's really been pretty scary is the
long end of the yield curve continues to
spike higher. The 20-year, the 30-year,
we're seeing the 30-year yield, the
interest rate on the 30-year, hitting
levels it has not seen since 2007.
And remember, that was just before the
financial crisis that was driven by,
obviously, the collapse in housing.
Here's the 10-year yield today closing
for the first time above 4.7%.
You have to go all the way back to
January of 2025. So, about a year and a
half ago was the last time we were this
high on the 10-year. But, look at the
30-year. The 30-year yield, check this
out, is at levels again, we have to go
to the weekly chart, that we have not
seen since right over here in June of
2007. And this is a big deal because
this affects the housing market. And the
housing market, at least here in
Florida, has literally gone dead. Right?
I just was actually talking to a real
estate agent earlier today that said it
is crickets out there, just like in '08
and '09 in housing in Florida. Now, we
haven't seen prices collapse yet, but
this is probably the first stage unless
yields start coming down. There are
other pockets in the US that are not as
bad. I think the the south where people
moved during COVID obviously getting hit
the hardest, but it is just interesting
to hear that these factors are there.
And you might say, "Well, why is the
economy still hanging in there?" And I
would just go back to the CapEx
spending. And you have, again, massive
amounts of money from these mega caps
that's getting flooded into areas of
spending, and that is keeping things
afloat for now. All right? So, let's
continue on here. Amazon, like I
mentioned, look at that, up over 15% on
the day. It did fill this gap right here
and touch this little pivot high.
There's no trade for me on this just
yet, but I will show you where I will be
looking for a short swing trade on this
stock. So, one of the things we're
looking at here, look at this trend line
right here.
Okay? Bring that up and look at what we
have. We have this beautiful parallel
that is forming. In other words, if
Amazon continues up and I'm going to
extend this out up to this level, which
is around 290 or so, give or take, that
would be where you would anticipate,
based on probability, that we would see
a pullback on Amazon. So, right now it's
just a wait and see. Great move on
Amazon. I tip my cap to them, but
there's nothing there yet for a trade.
Now, Apple on the other hand fell
sharply this morning. In the game plan,
I said, "Guys, I'm going to be looking
to buy at 300." It goes literally right
down to the exact penny of 300 and then
bounces about $9 off of that. That was a
good level. On the other side, I did
also talk about how I was short Apple
going into earnings and look at this
trend line. Again, why would I short
this going into earnings or have it
going into those those numbers? Well,
simply put, here was support and support
breaks down and then look, every time we
hit this trend line, it reverses off of
that and then we put in this topping
tail. There's a topping tail. If you
guys know what topping tails are in
technical analysis, they're bearish
reversal signals. Right there, right at
this high end, boom, to the downside,
Apple comes on earnings. That was a high
probability trade. It's always a little
bit nerve-racking to hold stuff into
earnings because you just never know
what the company's going to say. I mean,
they could have good earnings, they
could have bad earnings, their guidance,
they could do a share buyback. I mean,
you just never know, but that chart
setup was a great chart setup on the
short side from Apple. Congratulations
to members of Verified Investing. You
had that trade. We made good money on
it. Microsoft had a great week this
week, up another 3% today. That's
basically a 20% move on Microsoft. Uh
I'll be watching this next week. This is
going to be a big level at around 481 to
482. There's a gap here. See, it closed
and then it opened down there creating
this gap. That will be resistance next
week. I don't know if I'll swing trade
that, but it certainly will be on my day
trading agenda. Google, great move
today. Again, we're seeing this big pop
back up after it flushed on its
earnings. Now, remember, the reason
their earnings Alphabet's earnings were
fantastic. But, the kicker was that they
upped their CapEx spending, so the stock
dropped. Where did it drop? Right into a
great technical trend line. Look at that
trend line, right there, and then
there's your bounce. Now, that's great,
but just be aware that the more times
you hit this line, the weaker it
becomes, which it tells me that while
this could continue up, and I'm not
going to short it yet, it have to go
higher. If it ever comes back down to
this level, the odds will start to favor
a breakdown. And then we had Meta this
week, Meta gapping lower on its
earnings, but rebounding today pretty
nicely up about 3%. Even Nvidia had a
nice little day today. Look at Nvidia,
same thing. Pivot low, pivot low,
pivot low, there's your bounce. It's
amazing how simple trend lines make
a good disciplined trader's life.
All right, it's not like I got to use a
zillion different indicators. It's just
trend lines tell you everything if you
understand the topping tails and gap
fills, stuff like that, it really is
fantastic. All right, before we get into
more charts on gold, silver, oil,
Bitcoin, nat gas, I did just want to
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let's get back to the charts. Taking a
look at gold, speaking of which, gold
tried to break out yesterday, rejected
today. Now, I'm still concerned about
gold because the dollar was flat to
negative today and gold still went down
and yesterday and the day before, the
dollar got crushed
and gold only went up a little bit. And
so, that's not the price action you want
to see for gold. I still believe I'm a
huge believer in gold longer term. In
fact, I launched my institutional
research report just the other day, a
couple days ago. Remember, you it's
free. You just have to sign up on our
website, verified investing, and log in
for you can have a free account. You
don't even have to buy anything and
you'll get access to it and it's again
legit, institutional grade, and it has a
calculator where you can actually
calculate your own target on gold.
Pretty darn cool. But, again, when you
look at the US dollar, let's bring up
the DXY here. Look at this drop in gold,
four down days in a row, excuse me, in
the dollar.
And what did we see on gold here? What
did we see here?
Just this? That's it? I mean, basically,
it's almost unchanged in that entire
drop in the dollar. Now, part of that is
the fact that the 10-year yield has been
going up and the 10-year yield going up
does take some fuel out of the gold
rally. But, again, I'm I'm high alert
for a potential breakout on gold, but
I'd like to see more I'd like to see
something more genuine from it. I want
to see it start behaving better if you
understand what I'm saying there. Now,
silver, if we look at silver, kind of
just continuing to consolidate here
below. Silver is still in a bearish
holding pattern.
To get bullish, it would have to get
above these two trend lines, down
sloping descending connector here with a
base plate right here, which we broke
below and then retested and got rejected
from. So, essentially, you'd have to get
through $64 per ounce on silver to
really get bullish. That would get me
bullish at least on the metal. Then if
we look at oil today, oil didn't do a
whole lot. It was slightly positive. It
was kind of all over the map. Again, we
came into the week at highs, had a big
flush here,
and then a little bounce back. We're now
in this wedge pattern, which just again,
as a trader, you have three options. As
a trader, any trader or investor, you
have to be bullish on something,
bearish, or neutral.
And the best investors and traders in
the world are going to be a majority of
the time neutral. Why? Because they're
disciplined, and they only will jump
long or short when the optimal setup,
the high probability setup, presents
itself. And in the case now, again, you
guys know I was long down here. We had a
gap fill. I went short here, and now I'm
just waiting.
What is it going to do? I don't know.
Frankly, I don't care. When it makes a
big move, I will look at the chart,
analyze it accordingly, and take the
trade. It's going to be a breakout,
going to be a breakdown. I'll watch and
let the chart tell me. Natural gas
continues to kind of just hover around
here. If we take a look, it was up
slightly today, had a little bit of a
initial move down this week, then late
in the week it had a small bounce back.
Again, there's not really a lot on this
chart of spot nat gas. As we see this
lower trend line, that's your first
major technical support. Doesn't have to
go there, but that would be where I
would say, "Okay, now we're into some
major technical support down here.
Lastly, Bitcoin. Oh, Bitcoin. Bitcoin is
right on a very important level.
See this trend line here? So, we had
this little cup and where you could say
cup and handle or inverse head and
shoulder pattern.
You really see how all of these lows, 1
2 3 4, we've all been holding this line
here. It's been going right to this line
and then bouncing. And then today we
pierced it, but we're back above it.
If Bitcoin is to remain with a slight
bullish bias, it needs to hold this
63,000 level. Okay? Now again, weekend
price action, whether or not we'll have
to see. Uh, in general, when the volume
is light, I really like it during the
week to tell more than anything. But
bottom line is right now it looks like
it's going to hold 63 or right around 63
this trend line. Let's see where that
is. I want to see what happens next
week. Not a good day on Bitcoin though
overall, considering the S&P, the Nasdaq
were up. Um, I mean, gold was down,
granted, but nonetheless, just not a
great structural day for Bitcoin. Okay,
so
listen. Make sure you guys have that
free account on Verified Investing. The
dashboard where that gold report is has
so much alpha, so much free data and
information. All the traders here, we
put out multiple chart levels post per
day. We write our articles, we do our
analysis. A lot of that is free right
there. So, make sure you get it. And
then if you ever want to sign up for one
of our live portfolio
um, services, you have that option, but
you don't have to. There's so much free
alpha there. There's a there's the the
earnings calendar we put up, the
the
economic data and everything around that
as well. All right, I'm going to get
going. I got to go relax a little bit.
This was an intense week. When you're a
trader and you get this type of
volatility, it's very good usually cuz
we can make good money, but you kind of
come to the end of the week and you're
like, "Okay,
I got to take a breather here. I got to
take care of myself, my health, etc."
So, I'm going to go do that. You guys go
have a great weekend and thank you so
much for honestly the commentary and
everything else. You give us comments,
likes, all that stuff. Every little bit
motivates us to be as good as we can be
and better. Have a great one. Take care.
>> [music]
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