S&P Rips Higher, Nears Multi-Factor Resistance, AMD Drops, Gold Breaks Out, Bitcoin About To Surge

AI Summary

Transcript

My name is Gareth Soloway and I was a
losing trader until [music] I mastered
technical analysis. Logic and charts
beat hype and narratives every time. Now
I teach investors the same techniques
[music] that made me a
multi-millionaire. This is my trading
game plan.
Good morning everybody. Welcome to my
trading game plan. My name is Gareth
Soloway, chief market strategist here at
verifiedinvesting.com.
And of today, as always, we're going to
deep dive into the charts, see what
they're telling us about the price
action today. Yesterday, we saw the
markets continuing to rally, the S&P
breaking all-time highs and pushing up
even more. Now, I have a target for the
S&P that I'll reveal in just one minute.
Before we do that, we did get the ADP in
sector employment numbers this morning
coming in less than expected at 44,000
jobs added in the last month. So again,
that's not anything major. It's a little
bit lighter than anticipated, but again,
what that does is it makes us watch the
non-farm payrolls report on Friday a
little bit closer. All right, so that's
the key news of the morning. We also had
major earnings from the likes of Disney
as well as Uber. Last night after the
bell, we saw earnings from AMD as well
as SpaceX. We'll cover the key trading
levels of those names. All right, so
let's dive into the charts and take a
look here. S&P 500 continues to grind
higher. And again, this is getting
closer and closer to my next target
level. Now, if we flip over to the daily
S&P 500 chart and we look at this, we
could see again this was that wedge
pattern that we were forming. Remember
that we were talking about how we broke
above here, then we held the line, moved
up, held the line, moved up again, held
the line again, and then finally broke
out to the upside. Now, you can see the
next trend line that I'm following.
There's a key trend line going back to
basically 2024
that gives us a a target price for where
the S&P will meet its next resistance
level. And that on the S&P folks for
today is just above 7800. Basically
7,810
give or take a couple points. And that
will be the level where I start to
monitor the markets to see if they can
get a bigger pullback off that level.
Now, if we do pull back, do you guys
know the next major support on the
downside or the next couple supports
that we'll be watching? Take a look at
the chart. Let's quiz you guys right
now. What would be your first technical
support? So, let's assume the S&P 500
rallies up into this level and then has
a pullback. Where would the first level
of technical support be? First level of
technical support would be your former
all-time high right here at 7620.
If that breaks, then this downs sloping
trend line right here would be second
support followed by third support down
there. So again, three supports on the
way down. If we come up and take out
this resistance level, then I will start
giving you guys the next resistance on
the S&P 500. All right, so that's where
we are on the S&P. The NASDAQ 100 has
had a monster rally here, folks. Take a
look at this. So the S&P or I should say
the NASDAQ 100 has now rallied 10%
off of its recent low of just one week
ago. This was last Wednesday when we
closed. We closed right here Wednesday,
July 29th. Today, we are up 10% on the
NASDAQ 100. Now, that's been a
combination of semiconductors bouncing,
but more so, it's a massive rally in
names like Microsoft, Meta, and Google,
even Nvidia. So, the Magnificent 7 in
general have caught a massive bid. We
know their market caps are huge, and
that is pushing up the NASDAQ. amazingly
here. 10% in one week. That doesn't
happen very often, folks. There's no
doubt about it. Now, again, on the
NASDAQ, I do have a key level that I'm
watching. There's a gap fill right here
that again is around 737 on the QQQ,
which is the NASDAQ ETF, the NASDAQ 100
ETF. It's a gap fill right there. And
again, you can see right in that pivot
zone, there's also this area right
there. I believe this was an 886. Let me
see if that that does mesh. Yep, it's
right there. Notice the 886 Fibonacci
retrace is right at that level as well.
So essentially anywhere between this 737
and 738 level if we push up there. And
again, I don't know if we'll get there
today because we do have AMD and SpaceX
selling off sizably, but that will be
the big level that I say, okay, this
should be massive resistance on the QQQ.
It's still, again, it's only about 1.5%
away. So, it's not a massive move, but
it is a level that's on my radar. All
right, now let's talk about what has
kickstarted this rally. So, the rally
over the last week has been led by
earnings. We saw Microsoft earnings that
were just amazing. We also saw even
Google earnings which the stock fell but
it was because of their capex. Their
earnings were phenomenal. And then of
course we saw other major players out
there that reported monster numbers like
Amazon as well. In addition, we've seen
oil come down substantially. That has
brought the 10-year yield down. That
takes a little bit of pressure away from
the Federal Reserve having to raise
rates in September. And I'm still
skeptical. I am not a believer yet that
they will raise rates in September. From
everything as tough of a game as Kevin
Worse talked, I didn't see much
substance to his talk. And I do wonder
if he's trying to talk the markets um
believing there's a rate hike to get the
impact of a rate hike but then
ultimately not disappoint the president
by actually hiking rates. All right, so
keep an eye on that. Now if we look at
the dollar, the dollar is coming down
today here retesting or getting close to
a retest of this key trend line. Again,
a weaker dollar is generally looked at
as being a bullish thing for the
markets. The 10-year yield is flat today
overall. Big drop the last couple days,
which has helped the rally gain steam.
Again, lower rates, cheaper money, and
obviously it tells us what the market
believes about inflation and the chance
of Fed rate hikes. Next up, let's move
on to AMD this morning, folks. So, AMD
is getting trounced on earnings. Now, in
all fairness, this stock was very, very
close to all-time highs. If we look at
the daily chart, while many stocks
corrected 50 to 60% like SanDisk, AMD
only had a relatively minor pullback. So
again, it was rallying up not far from
all-time highs. They come out with
earnings. They were slightly
disappointing. Their numbers were good,
but again, it's guidance and margins
that's key. And that stock is down by
about 8% in the pre-market here. Now, in
terms of trading, where will I look to
trade this as a day trade? And I think
that's the important distinction here.
I'm not looking at a swing trade, but I
would look at a trend line taken from
the beginning of this move down here.
Stretch it out to this low right there.
And that would be my first level. It
happens to be right below the 450 even
number. And I stress this folks again,
swing trades, for me to get in a swing
trade where I'm holding it for days,
weeks, maybe even months, it has to be a
phenomenal level. For day trading, all I
care about is will it bounce for a
couple minutes if I'm buying a couple
minutes because day trades, you're in
and out intraday. So, I'm looking to
take smaller gains on larger positions,
just in and out real quick. And
therefore, again, the levels, they still
have to be significant, but I don't have
to like them on a longer time frame
quite as much. All right, so that's my
level on AMD. SpaceX is getting pounded
here, folks. And what's so fascinating
about this is there's a measured move
that I even came out with ahead of
earnings, and I said, "Guys, I think
this is going to about $95 to $97 a
share." And sure enough, earnings the
stock is getting trounced as they had. I
mean, listen, again, their revenue
numbers were fantastic, but you have a
huge lockup. And here it is, guys. So,
what I did basically here was I said,
"Okay, the stock opened here and in 3
days it went all the way up here. That
was a $75
move on SpaceX. Now, it came back in. It
did a full retrace. Then, it bounced.
Then it's began it began its decline,
right? And the idea is is that you look
for that same measurement. So $75 up and
then from the peak here 75 down. And
what that does is it gets us to this
approximate 97 to $95 level which to me
I will feel more essentially if I'm
going to swing trade this like I just
said I have to feel good about the level
which means there has to be technical
points and even some fundamental factors
that align there. Now, with the lockup
of expiring for so many inside
shareholders, it's very likely that
pressure will push it down to that
level. So, I'll keep you guys posted on
that one. But again, I'm looking for
about a 95 to $97 target and then I
would consider buying SpaceX there. All
right, next up, Shopify Monster Surge
here in the early trading on earnings.
The stock has pulled back a little bit.
Looking at the chart here, you can see
it was kind of holding steady. You even
had a little bit of a pseudo inverse
head and shoulder pattern right here.
Again, a little bit something like that.
But either way, the stock is surging to
the upside. There was a gap fill right
here at around 156, but it already
pierced it and pulled back. And so that
is now off the table. Instead, I look at
my next big level, which is right up
here [clears throat] around 171. So
again, this would only be a day trade,
but if we pushed up to 171 today, there
should be significant resistance there.
Extreme extension move. That'll be the
level I watch. Solar Edge getting
trounced today on earnings from closing
yesterday around 48 and change down to
about $40. Big drop there. Now, the
stock had just surged up on the daily
chart the last couple days coming back
in. The key level for me is this 39 or
just below $39 level. There's a pivot
low. Anywhere between 30, basically 39
and 38 I'll be looking at as a potential
scalp level. Same thing on a day on a
swing trade. No levels yet. Maybe I
would be intrigued around 3450. There's
a gap fill followed by a major secondary
ad level around 32. But again, I have to
re-evaluate if the stock comes into
those levels. AET popping on earnings.
This is a chip stock, so that's having a
good day. It is off of the recent highs
here. That's coming in just a bit. And
Disney as well. Good bounce on Disney on
earnings. If you look at Disney,
Disney's kind of been beaten down
recently. The one thing to watch on
Disney here is you have a trend line
number one. This will be a good
shortable level around 10650.
But number two, this will be the level
that if it breaks, this would be the
breakout. So Disney can trade all the
way up to this level. And if it doesn't
break out, you kind of got to expect
rejection.
But if it pushes through and confirms,
then all of a sudden it changes the
metrics to where I buy it back at this
trend line. So, let's just say the stock
rallies up, pulls back, then breaks out,
then pulls back. I now buy this support
versus shorting into resistance because
it's broken, confirmed, and retraces to
the scene of the crime. So, again, it's
a very what we would call a pivot point
in technical analysis. All right, let's
move on here, folks. Uber reporting
earnings. Stock is getting hit to the
downside. Not massively, about 5% or so
to the downside. maybe 6% here. Um, on a
daily basis, there's a longer term trend
line that I'm monitoring maybe for a day
trade around $66 and change. But again,
would I swing trade that? Look at how
many times it's hit. Once, twice, three
times, four times, and now five times
here today would be six if it tags that.
The methodology that I teach in the
winning trader series tells us that the
more a trend line of support or
resistance gets hit, the weaker it
becomes. In other words, if we hit it
six times, the odds now are 50/50, if
not greater that it's going to break.
And therefore, I don't want to step up
at that trend line. I want to let it try
to break and see where the next support
level will be. All right. So, that's a
big one there. Gold. We have to talk
about gold here. Look at that guys.
Today gold that is a resounding candle
assuming it holds. We closed above
yesterday. This would be a con
confirming breakout candle if it closes
up here today. In other words, gold
would be a breakout play. Now the
question is, do we buy it here? That's
to each his own, right? I mean, I'm a
long-term bull on gold. So whether you
buy it here, here, or here, I don't
think it really matters long term. But
again, for me, I would not be shocked if
we go up a little bit into this 4500
level and then actually come back in and
retrace down to this lower level later
this year. All right. So, again, I I at
least think there'll be another
opportunity um if you're a shorter term
investor or trader. But either way, a
breakout's a breakout. If you're someone
who likes gold, then that's really all
you care about. It tells you something
about the structure that is now starting
to flip more bullish on gold versus what
we've seen on gold prior and to some
extent on silver. Now silver great rally
to the upside but again as I've noted
there's still tons of resistance right
here around 64. So unless it gets
through 64 it's going to be a little
troublesome. Also oil. Let's take a look
at oil today. Oil a tiny bounce. kind of
a non-event today for oil after the big
down day yesterday. We're still waiting
on this supposed deal between the US and
Iran to materialize. Um, again,
supposedly there's something going on.
The question is, will it be like the
other thousand times where we heard
there was a deal? And obviously, we'll
find out in the coming days. No doubt
about it. All right. Um, natural gas
basically flat today. I'm still kind of
thinking Nackas could trade down into
this lower range. And then Bitcoin,
guys, this is a big one. Bitcoin is on
the verge of a breakout. It has not
broken yet, but look at this trend line.
High pivot, high pivots, and high
pivots. And look at how it just keeps
hammering on this level. I am I do think
especially with gold breaking out
there's a reasonable probability that
Bitcoin will break out here. So watch
this today guys. This could be a big big
potential mover um in the next few days
or the next few weeks. My upside target
first target will be really 71 to
72,000. If it gets through that it could
go as high as 77,000
on this breakout move. So, keep that on
your radar. Okay, guys, that's the
roundup today. You guys are amazing.
Thank you guys so much for tuning in. I
hope you learned something. I hope you
gain something. I always try to deliver
since you're putting your hard your your
valuable time towards watching me here
at Verified Investing. So, I always try
to bring my agame plus some. But, as
always guys, thanks for comments, the
likes, and the shares. Tell your friends
and family. Let's start this revolution
where we're not getting sucked in by the
narratives and the hype on social media
and mainstream media, where we're
actually following probability and
logic. Have a great rest of your day,
guys. Take care.