S&P 500 Reaches All Time High As Tech Rallies

AI Summary

Transcript

Hello everybody. Welcome to Trading the
Close. My name is Drew Dosk and guys, up
and away is the theme for the day. not
for oil and not for the 10-year yield
which actually went down helping the
markets propel higher. But the major
story of the day, AI monetization is
here and has been proven by companies
like Microsoft this week as well as
Palunteer surging 30% up on the day.
What a gain on that stock. Let's get
into these stocks, break down these
levels so you can see where this market
is turning because things have changed
particularly on the S&P 500 in which we
have another brand new all-time high
right here, guys. Look at the march up
today and yesterday. I swear I almost
have to remind myself just last week we
were talking about this candle here on
Wednesday potentially breaking back down
into this parallel channel. One that I
might remind you guys, look at this on
the weekly time frame. This parallel
goes all the way back here to October of
2022. You can cleanly see here, and I
even highlighted this last week. Even
when we were attempting to break down, I
said, "Guys, look, every time when price
got into the parallel, it was like it
was a hot potato or hot water in here
where they just dipped in and got right
out. Dipped in, got right out. Dipped
in, got right out. And then this the
third time after doing so was the time
in which we broke out making new
all-time highs. And the other week I was
saying guys look where all the closes
are occurring up here on this chart. We
had a move up and sideways
consolidation. It kind of looked like a
bullish consolidation on the weekly. Now
on the daily it didn't necessarily look
that way. We had head and shoulders
patterns that got negated. We had this
trend line in which we were following
the bearish price action below. But man,
two days out of all of these months of
us talking about this, two days has
lifted price up above the previous
pivots and jammed straight into this
resistance made by this inclining trend
line from pivot to pivot to pivot to now
pivot. So if you count that, that's more
than three. So that means that this next
hit has got a 50/50 shot of going
through the top end. We're in price
discovery mode at least right now on the
spiders. We'll see if this trend line
does hold us in the coming days
considering this is a nice march up.
We're not overbought near-term either,
guys. But still, what an incredible
march up tomorrow. Monitor that trend
line 772 and.70. Now, the Q's are not in
bright green new fresh territory. We're
still hidden amongst all of this
consolidation. Tech took big hits over
the past month or two, so it does make
sense that this is going to have a
little bit more time to rebound. But
guys, semies lead the way and we're
going to get into that chart next here
on the spiders next resistance with this
march up clearing this declining trend
line with ease. Look at that gap. Didn't
even come down and touch this resistance
trend line, nor did it touch this
horizontal resistance trend line.
Something that price has been
interacting with for the past several
months here on the chart. So now we're
pushing up into another resistance level
based on this declining trend line. Now
I didn't take it from pivot to pivot
high. I cut through a little bit of this
pivot that occurred here mainly to kind
of take an average in from this
collective high pivot zone. So that
resistance level tomorrow will be at 731
and.77. We get above that and also push
above the next day guys look that would
be all-time high territory and that
would flip this declining trend line
into support. Something that would be
very very big for a breakout retrace
bounce play on the chart. something we
cover in here on a weekly basis. So, I'm
going to be keeping my eyes closely
peeled to that. Now, to the upside on
the QQQ, you can see this is a different
much higher inclined parallel channel.
So, it's a much sharper angle that we've
got going on here on the weekly.
Somewhat bullish consolidation here,
too. So, it kind it can make sense for
us to continue moving up higher. But
again, we've got the war going on in the
Middle East that apparently is tapering
down. by guys just this last week we
were threatening to uh escalate. So here
we enter into this week and man whipsaw
action to say the least on all of these
charts. Now if the cues continue
marching up I mean to reach this
parallel will be one mighty feat. One
that we would have to get start
accelerating in not only an angle like
this but more like this what we
experienced here in March of this year
straight up on the charts. That's likely
what's going to need to happen for us to
come in in contact with that parallel
$83 on the QQQ and that will be by
September 8th. Next up, the SMH guys.
SMH, as I've said, the Sims lead the
way. We are not anywhere near the
all-time highs on the semis. Matter of
fact, here still we're having to
navigate this head and shoulders pattern
that was negated right here, but I left
the neckline on as that generally does
still leave uh resistance in the future.
So that level tomorrow to monitor 58220
and then this would be a major major
breakout on this declining trend line if
we were able to get price above that.
That trend line value is just under $600
on the chart. But let me remind you of
something guys. This is something I was
highlighting today in the live day
trading room with our members. I'm going
back through historical breakdowns and
surges on the SMH. This is something
I've brought up in this show several
times too. And I do this because I love
cyclical work. oftent times the markets
are going to do what they just did. And
so if you look back on the charts, study
it, you can start grasping what can
happen on this sort of move. So what I'm
talking about is here on the SMH. Now,
the last couple times we made pushes of
over 230%. We then met with about a 30
to 40% decline. Now, so far on this
decline, we didn't get anywhere near
that. We dropped down about 25% for this
drop. But notice here on the most recent
decline, I'll zoom in just a little bit.
You can see here we had a decline from
this pivot high all the way down to this
pivot low about the same as what we just
experienced. We just dropped 25%. This
one dropped 28.93%.
And when it bounced, you can see here it
bounced back up about 25% but the breaks
were all halted right here on this 50
daily moving average. We eventually sold
off, chopped around, sold off some more
before elevating up after the liberation
day low. So, if that were to be the case
and I zoom into current price action,
notice where that 50 simple moving
average on the daily time frame is
$595.94.
Notice if we continue moving up, we
likely are going to have that level,
that 50 moving average converge with
that declining trend line. So, we should
see some stout resistance here in the
near future. If time if history repeats
itself, we should be seeing selling
pressure hit the markets once and if
price hits that 50 simple moving
average. Next up, 10-year yield. Guys,
one of the reasons uh that the stocks
were pushing up today, look at that nice
decline pushing down to 4.611%
getting away from this 4.687. If you're
bull, you want to see price come down,
hit this next level of support at 4.54%.
uh the last few days of price action on
the 10-year yield were not implying this
reversal. We were actually consolidating
in the upper range of this uh uh price
action, putting in a bull flag near-term
bull flags. I want to remind you guys
too, there was only three days right
here. I generally like to wait more than
three days for a bull flag to mature and
play out. Otherwise, we're vulnerable of
moves much like this. Usually I like to
wait about seven days of maturity before
we can likely see a break to the upside
with a bull flag here. Obviously not
getting that case today. So be looking
for um some more potential downward
movement on the 10-year yield, which
could elevate the price in gold, but it
didn't really do that that much today.
Now, we did push up half a percent, but
I was anticipating with that big of a
move down on 10-year yield, we would be
pushing up more on gold. Main thing
though, we put in two days back to back
pushing up above this declining trend
line. Now, what would have been better
is had we gotten a close above the high
from the candle that broke above the
declining trend line. That value today,
$4,83.14.
We're not far away, guys. We got 31
minutes left in trading before this
candle on the daily chart does close.
So, we very well could accomplish that.
Be watching that over the next 30
minutes. What that will do is flip this
trend line from resistance into support
at $4,00023.
More or less secure the breakout for at
least a near to mediumterm uh scenario.
Next up, silver doing a little bit
better, pushing up 2.23%
today. More like what I would have
anticipated the reaction in gold. Now,
silver here, near-term potential
breakout watch from this declining trend
line from the pivot taken here on July
6. Watch to see if we follow that up
tomorrow with another push higher. If
so, next attack $6326.
I do have to admit I did buy a little
physical silver last night when seeing
this bullish consolidation. It I was not
loading the boat. Matter of fact, I
bought some as a present and I bought
some junk silver and then just a couple
other ounces that were on sale. It
wasn't anything like what I'm
anticipating doing once we hit the 50,
35, and potentially even $30 price tag
on silver. You want to say how can that
happen? We'll look at this weekly time
frame, guys. Go back out. Look at this
parallel chart. You can see here this
parallel mainly has contained price ever
since back here in January of 2008.
After we hit that top, we came right
back down and hit the bottom. All right.
So, if we pierce this top and we come
down and hit the bottom, where is the
bottom? Right around 35 bucks, guys. It
all depends on when and how fast if
price can get down to that level, but
that's certainly on the chart. It's
something I'm going to be paying
attention to if and when price breaks
the previous pivot high back here from
April of 2011 at $4983.
Next up into US oil. Another reason the
markets were pushing higher today, guys,
down 5.66%
getting further away from this declining
trend line which was resistance when we
last hit it the uh the last couple
weeks. So that tells me the next level
of support down here at $72.70.
Just beyond that we have a couple levels
of support would likely would be
difficult for oil to go through on the
first hit. And the reason being and you
can see that mainly from two trend
lines. One from this pivot low from
January 8th and this recent pivot low
will likely help to hold price in this
range of $70.30 should it keep plunging
into that uh into that area of the
chart. The other uh level of support is
this declining trend line that has so
far caught price. You can see how both
of those trend lines almost acted kind
of like a trampoline when price did
extend through it and then the last
little bit hit this trend line
propelling price up on US oil. I
anticipate at least some good support at
both of these trend lines if price comes
right back down to it. The lower value
of the trend line is at $6847.
Now NACS did a slip and slide today
guys. Last three days were looking rosy
for Nat Gas to get above $2.75 and
maintain. This is just one day back
down. But I warn you guys, the NAG gas
chart is a widowmaker for a reason. This
did put in bearish consolidation and was
implying we're going to go down. So
right now we are putting in more bearish
consolidation. So we'll just see though.
Mainly monitoring this $2.75 levels for
near-term potential bullish upside or
near-term potential downside. And we
have one day closing underneath. We'll
see if we put in two of those uh
tomorrow on the chart. Next up, Bitcoin.
Not too much new to report because
mainly it's not back inside the parallel
channel. Now, we do have an inverse head
and shoulders. I highlighted this week
that Bitcoin is trying to form. The
right shoulder has not yet completed as
it needs to get all the way up here to
$66,785
before that right shoulder is completed
and potentially triggered, which can
take Bitcoin up into the low $70,000
range. But still guys, it is a uh bare
flag on the weekly uh and it's
consolidating all on a level of support.
All of that implies we should eventually
be coming down unless of course we have
some near-term upside with that inverse
head and shoulders. So that too is kind
of in a 50/50 gray area at the moment.
I'll be waiting for more downside so
that we can potentially pick up some
more Bitcoin. Now guys, into the story
of the day. I can't stress to you how
important this is. the the AI narrative
over the last month or two has really
been getting weakened as far as push
back locally from communities for
building out all these AI data centers
concerned about their resources and
concerned about the power consumption.
Right? So there's a lot of people don't
want their power bills going up. I don't
either. And then there's equally been a
high level of concern regarding these
companies monetizing the AI. there's
been an incredible amount of capex spend
and then this week we are slowly
starting to get the answers to that with
Microsoft pushing up very nicely and now
Palunteer pushing up nicely both back on
successful AI monetization. So we're
checking off one of the concerns for
these AI uh companies and buildouts. The
AI companies that have been under
pressure have all started seeing big
surges with these reports. And if this
reports continue, I anticipate us to
continue moving up higher because again
those major major concern about capex
spending. It's so large. It has never
been this big in the history of the
world. And that's not a you know saying
from our our US president. That's the
truth guys. It's never been this big.
It's an incredible buildout. So into the
chart of Palunteer. Palunteers you see
here back from November of 2025 has
cleanly been trading in a declining
parallel channel. Notice the move that
occurred today. I even have this trend
line still on the chart. This is a
measured move from this bull flag
pattern. We accelerated through that
today. This measured move put price at
$15062.
A place that also converged with the top
of this parallel channel. Unbelievable
that price didn't stop here, maybe even
closed slightly above it, but it
accelerated at one point more than 30%
up on the day. Now, we didn't close
above this high pivot, so that's going
to be the next stop for it. But on a
move this big, guys, you're likely going
to catch a lot of shorting positions
offguard. And so, over the next three to
five days, I in I intend to see
Palanteer remain up in this range. Now,
one thing, if you're a bull and you've
missed this move and you want to jump
on, see the price in the next several
days to close above today's candle. If
it does so, any pullbacks down here to
the top of this parallel just shy of
$150 will be a buying opportunity for
momentum to continue pushing up on the
chart. Next key resistance all the way
up here near the $200 level on the chart
of Palunteer. What other stocks can you
get into that are like Palunteer? Well,
you can look at stocks like Snow and or
AI. The problem with Snow, look at its
recent push pushing and breaking through
this inclining trend line from a pivot
from February of 2024 and a pivot here
on November of 2025. We had a
foreshadowing of this breakout occur.
You can see when we first ran up to this
declining trend line, got rejected,
broke out, retraced, and that's your
typical breakout retrace bounce play
that you get here in trading the close.
Now, very nice push today that bulls
want to see this trend line be
maintained and closed above. Ideally,
you want to see another push higher
tomorrow and then have price pull right
back down. As long as consolidation
occurs above that trend line, notice how
clean that bull flag pattern would be.
Uh, gaining momentum for another push
higher to 341 and then eventually the
all-time highs up here just over $400.
If you want to get into another company
that's not already run like this that
has a similar type of structure as
Palunteer, this is a much smaller
company, but this is C3 AI. Look at how
far down we are on this chart. If I go
back on the monthly, look at this. We're
basically at the bottom of the barrel.
Now, keep in mind, too, this is a small
cap stock, so their debt levels are a
little bit different than the bigger
players. The market cap's only 1.53%.
So higher risk is assumed with these low
caps because they do run offerings from
time to time to raise revenue. But
near-term this stock is acting like
Palunteer and Snow. It's behaving in the
same fashion in that it is looking to
break out. So we are on breakout watch
with this declining trend line. Closed
above it today. see if we close above
the high tomorrow and then that that
makes this trend line a support level at
$9.92
for a potential move all the way up to
this declining trend line. Notice we did
dance around that decline declining
trend line back here in August of 2025,
September of 2025 as well as November of
25. But this is a key defining trend
line illustrating support levels when
price comes from above and resistance
when price is coming from below. So, I
anticipate that to be the next major
hurdle to cross at $1242.
Next up, AMD reported earnings after the
bell. Guys, look at this slip and slide
action. Now, if you look back on the
previous earnings, this is where we
reported earnings last on May 5th of
2026. From that point to the high, we
went up about 65%.
Right into the close though, we were up
about 46% from the last earnings report.
completely different than a chart like
BE which was down here uh away from its
earnings that it reported as well as on
the bottom of a parallel. This angled
for more of a pop going into earnings
compared to AMD. We were already up so
much it better be a perfect beat in that
apparently as of right now is not. So if
we continue selling into tomorrow, this
inclining trend line will be the first
destination for a potential bounce and a
decent one right around $440 now. Yes,
right around the open 461 to
psychological 450, but this should be a
solid level if we see selling down all
the way to that trend line tomorrow.
Likely going to happen in a couple days
if the selling persists. Uh next up,
guys, SpaceX also reporting earnings
after the bell. This too coming down
after hours. Closed at $125.33.
Let's flip over to the 10-minute time
frame. We did actually have a little
surge up to $131, but then immediately
came right back down. So, not too much
data on this chart to really give you
other levels except for a psychological
level of 100. And for whatever reason, I
anticipate a move down to $75, taking
this value, the $150 range, cutting it
in half, getting people um disillusioned
with this stock, which could be an
awesome time to buy it if and when price
can drop that low. But until then, $100
should be the next support level if
price does sell off into tomorrow. Uh
lastly guys, AET. Look at this. AET
pushing up nicely uh after earnings
closing at $192. First off, let me show
you this inclining parallel channel that
has contained price since the liberation
day lows. Hit the top a few different
times implying that this next hit could
be a 50/50 shot of breaking through. a
near-term. We did get a little bit of a
heads up today that price likely could
go higher off of earnings with price
closing above a key inclining trend line
that had held price back in July as well
as in April of this year. So price went
up is now at 20292. But guys, that's not
the only story. Look what happened after
hours. This stock was up at $225,
guys. This selloff after hours is
actually not that good. You want to see
earnings if they're that good to push
you up to 225. You want to see price at
least hang out up here. Maybe even the
215 to 225 because that's a big pop. But
guys, we're selling back down getting
into the top end of this parallel
channel. That's not the best. It's still
good. It's still positive. But if I was
an investor and I was really eager about
this stock with that beat and I bought
up at 225, I wouldn't be feeling too
good right now with price coming
straight back down. What's going to be
the next catalyst to push it up there?
What is it going to be? Another three
months and waiting for earnings? Maybe.
We'll see. But guys, incredible price
action and moving today on the stocks.
We got lots more earnings to cover this
week. Um, hard to believe it's only been
two days and man, what a wild week.
Spiders, brand new all-time highs. We'll
see how that changes tomorrow if we've
got AET coming in, maybe even flat at
the open, but interesting price action
after hours to say the least. Thank you
guys so much for watching and tuning in.
Don't forget to like and subscribe to
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technical analysis on the charts. I look
forward to being back here tomorrow and
seeing you next time. Until then, guys,
we'll see you on the charts. Take care,
everybody.