US Oil Plummets As Big Tech Powers Market Rebound

AI Summary

Transcript

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Hello everybody. Welcome to Trading the
Close. My name is Drew Dosk. Welcome
back. Hopefully you had a great weekend
folks. Guys, now this week starts. We've
got tons of earnings. FOMC's behind us,
but mainly what really kickstarted this
week was more peace talks in the Middle
East. Oil plunged. The spiders are
pushing up so nicely today. Can we be
talking about all-time highs yet again
this week? Maybe. We've got earnings
this week by Palanteer already reported
after hours today. Snapchat. Plus, we've
got AMD. We've got uh SNDK as well as
WDC. We've got a lot of earnings this
week and a lot of charts to cover. So,
let's jump into them with the S&P 500 up
first. Now, guys, look at this price
action today. Over the last several
weeks, we've really been analyzing this
wedge pattern on top of the chart when
we've been breaking down when we've been
breaking up. But notice Friday's price
action since we did not cover it here on
this show. Notice where price action
opened and closed on the day. Plus, we
hit the top end of this bottom uh range
of the wedge and we got rejected right
there. But we closed the day right above
that declining trend line today. Pushed
higher and closed again. That confirms a
near-term breakout, folks. with the
support level down here on the S&P 500
at $74264.
But considering the massive push that we
had today, we could actually be talking
about near-term support on top of this
inclining trend line, which is at
$749.94.
You get into the 10-minute chart, you
can see here, folks, it really was just
up and away all day today with the uh
declining cost of oil. Investors found
their way to start buying more into the
markets. And plus, there was a surge
mainly on the back of Microsoft on the
chart we'll cover here in a little bit
because there's robust interest now with
um having AI monetization since they're
becoming successful with it. That chart
as well as Oracle is pushing up nicely.
But first up, the Q's up 1.76%.
Notice when we broke down, made this
V-shaped recovery, but when we broke
down, we confirmed and when we marched
back up on Friday, we got rejected at
that trend line. That's what should
happen. But likely we should have a
couple days of being rejected before
breaking through. So that just showed
the momentum really carried us through
today. So now to into tomorrow, we do
have resistance right back into the
entry into this big red candle. That
level as you see is at 704.32
for tomorrow's price action. Bulls want
to see this level held and put in a
daily close above $695.25
25 into the SMH. Much like how I
described on the Q's, when we broke down
and confirmed, we should see several
days of consolidation before breaking
back above. The Q's did not give us
that, but SMH is since we broke back
down into this old parallel. Notice how
we were rejected the following three
days, including today, from breaking out
above that parallel. So, that level to
watch tomorrow is at $547.40.
If we put in a daily close above that
range, we'll now be talking about a
breakout from this longer term inclining
parallel channel that was dated all the
way back to the liberation day low. So,
we were on the cusp of potentially even
tagging the bottom. But right now, we're
talking about breaking to get above. So,
be watching that for tomorrow. Again,
guys, the semis lead even though the
spiders are up near all-time highs. If
the semis really start rocking and
pushing higher, then we'll be
anticipating the rest of the markets to
stay afloat. Otherwise, if the semis
find pressure, even if they get above
this parallel and find pressure at this
next resistance trend line, the rest of
the markets could then start selling off
again. Even with, as I said, the S&P 500
potentially making brand new all-time
highs. Now, one other reason the markets
did lift off is the 10-year yield did
pull back ever so slightly. You can see
we're at 4.686%. 686%. Do we close above
4.687? That's what I'm going to be
monitoring over the next hour because
that would allow at least some staying
power for this elevated price on the
10-year yield. If we're able to
accomplish that next stop with
probabilities, we'll point towards
4.809%.
And you see on the DXY just briefly,
guys, the DXY did decline initially
today, but they found support right here
on the inclining trend line. The decline
on the dollar also helped lift the
markets initially. But as you see here,
the dollar rocketed right back up to
close above where we did on Friday,
creating a green day at least for the
near term. Be watching this trend line
for support in the coming days on the
DXY at $9953
into gold. That did have a positive day.
And you can see from this chart,
battling this declining trend line, but
we did close above it on Thursday and
we're looking like we're going to close
above it again today. Now, in between on
Friday, we close back underneath of it.
So, what that does is it resets the
clock until today. So, if we do continue
up here in this range, you can see on
the hourly time frame, we've gotten a
bounce right on top of that declining
trend line. And if we close in this
range, we'll have to be looking for
tomorrow. If we get a close above
today's candle, that then will turn this
trend line into support and a buying
opportunity near-term for potential
near-term upside in gold with the next
resistance not far away, guys, at 4209,
which is the bottom of the inclining
parallel for gold. Next up, silver.
Similar situation except for it is not
beating its near-term declining trend
line. It already did that from this
higher pivot point and since has just
consolidated sideways. Now, if you look
at this near-term, this is very nice. A
nice move up and sideways consolidation
right into resistance. So, this is bull
flagging trying to build the momentum to
go higher. Now, I still think uh silver
eventually will get under $50. Do we
have a near-term bounce on the horizon?
It looks like price action is trying to
do that. If we do break this declining
trend line at 5918, next stop for silver
will be this pivot high at $6326.
Next up on US oil, as I said, it
declined sharply down 7.6%
today. Notice too, getting declined from
this previous wedge pattern, just
extended out. We actually surged through
that the other week and then sold back
down coming and then on Friday, came
back into that trend line all to see it
getting rejected again today. So that
cleanly states that any other upward
movement, this area still should be a
contention spot at $85.25.
Of course, if the war escalates, I I f
fully anticipate price action getting up
here to $9644.
Uh, next up in Nat Gas, last few days of
trading did a really good job, guys,
getting back above the support level of
$2.75.
Even though we've traded in and around
that level, all three of those days
we've closed above, we're closing above
that level. Most importantly, Friday
closed above Thursday's candle. So, this
should have a little bit of staying
power. Be careful though, Nat Gas is the
widowmaker. I do anticipate by the
winter though, we should be coming up
and attacking uh this range on this
inclining trend line, which is the
bottom of a parallel channel right
around $3.60. How much pain can you
endure as NAC gas still could dip down
lower to $253. Just be mindful with
spacing out how you manage that position
into Bitcoin. Much like silver and gold,
trying to put in some inverse head and
shoulders patterns to break out and get
up a little bit higher on the charts.
All the while though, this is still a
downward move and bearish consolidation
where I start to become a little bit
more interested in Bitcoin moving up
near-term. Do we get back into this
parallel $64,792?
And then most importantly, the neckline
for that inverse head and shoulders
break at 66,736.
Those are the two key levels I'm
watching to the upside. Otherwise, still
anticipating a break for price to get
further down near the $50,000 mark. But
like I said, much like on silver and on
gold, uh we have made a nice bounce from
the lows and have mainly put in sideways
consolidation. That's near-term bullish
consolidation should yield a near-term
pop. We'll see if that happens. But the
grander scheme of things still shows
downward pressure on the chart of
Bitcoin. Next up into Microsoft. I know
we covered this last week, but look at
the continued surge of 4.93% today.
Fully confirming last week a re-entry
into this parallel channel. One that you
see dates all the way back here to
November of 2022. So, we fast forward to
current time. That leaves this 50% area
of the parallel, the next major hurdle
for Microsoft to get through. Now, keep
in mind, we've had a slew of upgrades
for Microsoft, mainly because they were
able to monetize their AI arm. So this
is bringing a lot of hope for all of the
major capex spending companies out there
like Microsoft, like Meta, like Oracle
that really had a shadow of debt
overhanging. It still does. Oracle still
does, but it at least this good news is
helping to lift up those stocks. Next
stop for Microsoft, $500 to 50% area,
the parallel, but Goldman Sachs came out
here today with a hefty analyst upgrade
of $640.
They may be correct. If I extend out
that parallel, we easily could get to
$640. The top of the parallel in
November is at $600 basically. So
eventually Goldman Sachs may be right
with this trajectory and velocity. It
looks like it's certainly got a shot,
but right now overbought near-term needs
to consolidate, likely pause around this
50% area, the parallel, and then
potentially go higher once momentum has
settled out, this overbought scenario on
the daily RSI. Next up into Oracle. As I
said guys, uh this spilled out from
Microsoft into Oracle into Meta that all
had great days today, up 9.22%. Now, I
want to bring this to your attention uh
for a lot of reasons. Trading can bring
about a lot of emotions. When you see
parallels get broken to the downside,
that should hold. When you see trend
lines get broken, that should hold. And
you're in these positions, you're
asking, "What's going on? Why isn't this
bouncing?" I fielded so many of those
questions over the last week or two on
oracles price action navigating through
the bottom of the parallel. I said,
"Guys, don't worry. What do we talk
about in this show? When price breaks a
major parallel, what does price like to
do? It likes to go find support and then
retest the bottom of the parallel." Now,
Oracle had, like I said, a lot of bad
news. So much money they've spent in
developing AI. They actually have more
money outstanding than likely some of
which they can bring in or at least at
the cliff that they're bringing it in
because they've got a backlog to record
numbers over 600 billion dollars. So
when can they start turning that money
in hopes into actual monetization for
AI? Well, at least Microsoft is helping
lift that narrative today, helping lift
uh Oracle as well with a potential shot
of getting back into that parallel
channel. You can see where price action
pierced and closed right there on that
parallel basically at $142. I scroll
back out on this chart. This parallel,
as you see, started back here in
September of 2022, got all the way up
here to around $340
before plummeting back here on the
charts. Now, notice how clean this most
recent rally went up and tested the 50%
area of the parallel. If all the
narrative starts going well, I don't see
why Oracle can't eventually get back up
there as long as they man monetize their
AI projects. However, for the near term,
we've got to get re-entry back into this
parallel channel. We'll see what happens
tomorrow with a confirming close inside.
If we can get that this week, that would
be very nice for Oracle to continue
pushing higher up to the next major
resistance at $16,512.
Next up, Meta. Also the recipient of
lots of inflow of capital because of
this AI monetization news and this
focus. Nice push up. But notice Meta's
chart. We've broken down from this
parallel not once, not twice, but three
times. So that tells me that if we do
continue marching up, this level still
will be a line of contention right
around $642. But the one I'm most
interested in meta breaking is this
declining trend line from pivot to pivot
to pivot. been hit three times. Tells me
the next hit is a 50/50 shot and
breaking through. You can see how that X
marks the spot. Likely will be some
stiff resistance at $657.97
if we start putting in a bull flag and
make our way up to the parallel in that
fashion. Next up, we've got AMD
reporting earnings this week tomorrow
after the bell. Now you can see AMD also
has broken down from an inclining
parallel not once but twice making a
re-entry into that parallel the major
line in the sand roughly $560.
Notice how there's also a converging
declining trend line. This would be the
hit the third hit of that which likely
would get rejected. Makes sense if we're
going to make a monumental move this far
away up there to that level after
earnings. Now to the downside, this is a
very minor level of support only created
on this trend line from this low pivot
and this low pivot here. I anticipate if
we do sell off, maybe a slight speed
bump here, but guys, watch out. $400
sub400 is the next support at $388.80.
But if you go back out on the chart,
there's really nothing there. This is
kind of a ghost level of support which
is so very important why AMD must
maintain price action above this
inclining trend line. Get do its best to
reattack the bottom of that parallel.
Otherwise, we could see a slippery slide
past 388 until we get back into previous
price action. And even that only has
about six or seven days of consolidation
to hold price. So, this could be a
slippery cliff if the selling pressure
does pick up. Next up, we've got a
viewer request from uh K Parvan. K
Parvan here on YouTube. So, thank you
for this request with Rocket Labs. Now,
Rocket Labs does have earnings uh August
6th after the bell. So, what I want to
show you though on this chart, first
off, we'll start with the parallel
channel. All right, we've got the
parallel dated back here from October of
2022, largely containing price, and we
did have a little bit of a surge above
it, but mainly has contained price
throughout that duration. Now, if we
zoom in a little bit closer, you see
when we've broken this lower 50% range,
we've already gone up and retested.
We've made another attempt, but so far
haven't gotten up as high. So, we're
putting in lower highs all in this
bearish consolidation range. And when I
flip on the moving averages, we see
there was a death cross that occurred
back here on March 30th. You may say,
what is that? That's where the 200
moving average in red goes over the 50
moving average. So since that point,
price has been held down on the charts.
Now we move into near-term price action
for any sort of bullish momentum. We
need to get price above both the 20
moving average and this blue 50 moving
average. If we do that, we could have a
shot to then reattach the 200 moving
average with the resistance level here
at 1635. But as long as price maintains
under that 50 as well as that 20, the
yellow, that is encouraging price to get
rejected and sent down to the bottom of
this parallel channel at $1046
as the next major major level of
support. So monitoring the next couple
days of price action will really give
you some great insight to see if we
can't surge above those levels of
resistance with those moving averages
with earning or if the earnings just
keeps and maintains price under it. If
so, that really paints the story for
where Rocket Labs likely could go down
here to the bottom of the parallel. If
it does, guys, would be a fantastic b
buying opportunity. Notice this would be
the first hit, second hit, then third
hit, and third hits generally produce
some of the biggest and most reliable
bounces. So, that's where I'm going to
be waiting. Matter of fact, set a
reminder down here at the bottom of the
chart. Hopefully, price plunges down
into there to give us an opportunity.
All right, next up, couple earnings
after the bell taking place right now.
Look at Palanteer surging up over the
near-term resistance. Initially pushed
through this to 136, then pulled right
back down. Let's look at the after hours
price action. You can see exactly what I
talked about there. Pushed through, had
that red candle surge right back down.
So first level of resistance already
checked off, guys. Very nice move there
on Palanteer. Does tell me though, if
you look at this chart, we did have a
little insight going into earnings,
right? We had a very nice sell. Look at
that V-shaped recovery. And since that
V-shaped recovery, this has been bullish
consolidation. The only caveat here most
recently from this candle here on July
22nd, look at all of this consolidating
right on top of the support level of the
50% area, the parallel. That's where it
was giving me mixed signals on if we
could go down or go up. But otherwise,
if you step back out with the bird's eye
view, this was a V-shaped recovery. Bull
flag consolidation should imply a move
up. Next key resistance on Palunteer
will be on the bottom or pardon me on
the top of this parallel at $147.94.
Lastly guys into Snapchat reporting
earnings after the bell popping up
nicely to $557.
This two is putting in higher lows
near-term on the chart. Get above this
consolidation namely would be right here
lining up with this declining trend line
roughly around $6.32. we get a closing
uh uh move above that trend line, guys,
that could set up for a nice move on
Snap. Eventually getting to the 50% area
of this parallel channel right around
$7.75.
We'll have levels of contention before
then at 690 as well as 760. But still,
guys, uh pretty nice move on earnings.
Need to see Snapchat regain the top end
of this declining trend line that's been
holding price down ever since the end of
2024. All right, guys. Uh man, what a
show. Lots of action to cover today. As
I said, earnings all throughout the
week. Thanks so much for hanging around
with us today. Got a lot more info to
give you later this week. Can't wait for
it. Until then, don't forget to hit that
like button. Send this out to your
friends and family so that they too can
learn technical analysis on the charts.
Guys, thank you again for watching. I
look forward to being back here with you
tomorrow. Until then, we'll see you
right here on the charts. Take care,
folks.
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