Saylor Dumps Bitcoin: Will BTC Hold Critical Support?

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[music]
>> Hey folks, Nick Black is here, chief
crypto strategist for Verified
Investing. And thank you for joining
everybody as I stare blankly into the
camera. We have to talk about
MicroStrategy selling more Bitcoin. That
is right. And we're going to look at the
Bitcoin charts. We're going to look at
some key levels for some of the major
altcoins. And we're going to look at
MicroStrategy stock just for a second
cuz if you must trade it, I'll tell you
exactly where I would take profit on
that trade cuz there's a key trendline
coming in from some pivot tops, from
some of the price action we've seen over
the past 12 months. But everybody, go
ahead and smash that like button, get
your comments in. And if you spam
altcoin hard enough, maybe I'll chart it
at the end of the show. So, let's go
ahead and jump right in. And we're going
to start with Bitcoin, of course.
Bitcoin, the major news, like we said,
MicroStrategy has now sold. We'll look
at the numbers in 1 second. But Bitcoin,
I noticed something with a descending
parallel channel. Now, this isn't too
old. This is only going back about 2
weeks. So, this has been in this range
for 2 weeks. And if you look right here,
we have our bottom, we have our top
right there. But what what happens there
when you extend it further, it
intersects with this pivot high, with
this wick high. And so, we hit the top
after hitting the bottom, hit the bottom
again, hit the top again, wicked a
little bit lower, but found support, hit
the top again, and now let's drag this
out. Let's continue this out. So, we
might have a technical target for
Bitcoin's price. But right now, we are
hitting this resistance, which was the
pivot top highs from right here. And
this is also a pivot low that we saw
February 24th. So, we're going back
about half a year almost, folks. Now,
yeah, that's right. It's already August.
So, 20 days away from a half a year ago,
that was a pretty strong pivot level.
And now Bitcoin hitting that level yet
again. Let's look at this. Let's blow up
the latest data. This is MicroStrategy's
from their 13F filing.
I snipped this out so we could look at
it real quick. MicroStrategy sold 1,600
billion billion 1,600 Bitcoin for
aggregate sale price over 100 million
dollars. And if you look, what did they
do with that? Well, they ended up
putting half into the cash reserves, and
they put the other half to basically buy
back their stretch perpetual, their STRC
dividend yield paying instrument. This
is something that they created to fund
more Bitcoin purchases, but there is a
caveat, a strong caveat in my opinion,
and that is future dividend obligations
that go in perpetuity,
you know, theoretically forever. And so,
they have to keep paying out a dividend
every 2 weeks, and you can think of it
every month as well. They keep paying a
dividend, keep paying a dividend. Well,
where does that money come from? That
money comes from MicroStrategy diluting
their stock, or strategy is what they're
known as today. So, let's let's jump
into the strategy chart later on in the
show. And I'm going to say, if you must
trade it, where would I sell it? But
first, let's cover the major movers,
everybody. Let's look at the altcoins.
Let's look at Ethereum.
We predicted the Ethereum breakdown
here. We said, "Hey, folks, this is
technically a rising wedge, and you
know, historically this is a bearish
signal." Now, it wasn't the highest
probability cuz it wasn't pointing that
high, you know, the the flatter it is,
the less probabilities you have to the
downside, but it did come down. And
where did it come down to? Directly into
our target zone. This is from the
February pivot low on the 6th to the
pivot tops right here, and you can just
see rejected right there, rejected right
there. That created our little buy zone,
and look at that, it just kissed it
perfectly. Like it's at a kissing booth
at the street at the state fair there,
and now getting a nice little, you know,
a little bit of a bounce there. But look
at that wick low as the market digested
that MicroStrategy news, there was a
flush out in the markets early this
morning. That's going to be around 4:00
a.m. People saw the activity on chain
shortly after midnight, and if you look
right there, almost looks like the
markets were front-running that news,
front-running that 13F filing, and I'm
still looking at this top range. This is
the 1929-1930
level for some overhead resistance.
We've yet to really confirm above.
There's that one brief candle close
above, and then pushed down. We had
another candle close above, but then
pushed down. We haven't been able to
open and close a candle above this
level, and we've covered this level
since 1929. You can go all the way back
to 2022, 2023 to see the historical
significance of that level. Maybe we'll
we'll check it out in a future episode.
Let's look at Solana.
Solana in a bull flag structure. Now,
this to me is a in spirit bull flag. Why
is it a in spirit? Well, it it's not
necessarily it has to follow this rule,
but there is a heuristic or a common
rule that you like to see with bull
flags or bear flags. It's it's the same
situation here. You don't want the flag
to droop too much. And what do I mean by
droop? I mean you don't want it to fall
more than 50% of the flagpole. At that
point, it's going to be hard to to flap
in the breeze, if you will. You've
You've driven by that large car lot, the
flag is too big for the wind to move it.
And so, when you have that droopy flag,
you know, you might not see that next
flagpole. But again, this not not
necessarily, cuz we do have some good
news on the Solana chart. We keep
beating on the top of this parallel
channel. And so, the more often you beat
on the door, the more likely that door
is going to open. And you can see we hit
the bottoms there, hit the tops there.
That established our channel. If you
keep drawing it out, that's exactly
where we found support. And right now,
that's exactly where we're finding
resistance. And we do have a a measured
target for this bear or bull flag
breakout.
Let's assume it happens with tomorrow's
candle. Well, that coincides pretty
close to these pivot highs right there.
And that's going to be right at the $96
level. And we maybe we get a nice little
wick towards 100 bucks, but we haven't
been able to wick that high yet. That
wick stopped right there. 9601, so
basically 96 on the dot. That wick right
there stopped at 9850.
If you use honestly, if you use a linear
regression, uh we are going to go above
$100, so around roughly $1.75,
something like that. So, uh you know,
maybe the the the logarithmic regression
will push it above. So, keep an eye out
on this bull flag on Solana, folks. I
know I'm going to be keeping an eye out
on this. Let's look at XRP. XRP, we gave
you the resistance level that flipped
into support. What do you know? Look at
that Saturday candle. Look at that
Friday close. We closed right there on
that support we pointed out. We wicked
into it on Saturday, and now we're
starting to get it a little bit of a
push up, but the markets are trying to
push it back. And you can see now, the
market's trying to erase the gains and
maybe put that candle into the positive.
Speaking of positive candles, we covered
the monthly on Solana. I just want to
check. I'm more curious. Pretty sure
it's going to be green.
What are we looking? All right, look at
that. We have maybe an into the pain for
Solana monthly candles. These are
monthly candles. We ended up seeing 10
red months for Solana. And so now we
might start to see that rally for
Solana. So, keep an eye out on the
monthly there. Uh XLM, we gave you this
trade setup as well, and it's still
holding support. Uh we had a nice little
wick up on Sunday. But then, what do you
know? Push right into our level today,
and now it does look like it's trying to
find support at this range. Cardano,
Cardano has brought out all of the
comments here. Everybody's talking about
Cardano. I will cover XLM. We just got
that one. A lot of people are pump
pumping in Flare. Maybe we'll look at
Flare as well. So, Cardano though
is one of the most loved and hated
altcoins out there. A lot of you love
when I cover Cardano. A lot of you
saying, "That's a dead project. Why are
you covering that stinker? Okay, stop
giving us these stinkers."
I don't hate it. I don't date it. I just
trade it, folks. And we had a nice
little pump on this one. We gave you the
pump. We said this resistance has now
flipped to support. And look at
yesterday's candle right there. Woo,
huge pump on Sunday. And we've been
scalping this one with precision. You
call me the surgeon. And I can't wait to
start showing you guys my open trades,
where I open them, where I close them.
And we're going to be doing more of that
in the future. So, go ahead and hit that
like button if you do want to see some
of that content. I see you guys talking
about Flare. Flare was always kind of a
a beta play for XRP.
And so now if we look Oh my gosh. No
wonder you want me to look at this one.
This thing is just beaten down. Good
lord, this is groveling on the ground.
This is rolling in the fetal position at
this point, folks. I too would uh
want to cover this one. This one That's
just not a good chart, folks. You don't
want to see your altcoin look anything
like this. And you know, I mean, if
you're looking for some sort of bullish
news Okay, yeah, you're getting some
bull divs on the daily. I I kind of want
to say big whoop, but I I For something
like this, I like to see it Oh, well,
you are starting to see bull divs on the
3-day as well. So, Flare just selling to
the pumps, folks. I mean, look at that
move right there. That's That's why I
feel bad for her some of these altcoin
holders.
They hold something that pumps 33% then
they don't sell it. And next thing you
know, they're down 16%. It's like you
had your exit right there, folks. It was
It was right there. Let's talk about
HyperLiquid. I gave you the bat signal.
What is the bat signal to buy your hyper
liquid? And we covered this. This was
the four-hour bull div / bear divs. And
guess what? We are seeing strong bull
divs on the RSI. So, we see the price.
What is a bull div? Let's back it up.
What what what do I mean by bull div?
Well, it means it gets oversold and
overbought, everybody. So,
we had a bear div that predicted a price
correction. You see the RSI was heading
lower as the price was heading higher.
That predicted a corrective move. And
next thing you know, yeah, hyper liquid
they had a very strong corrective move.
Right here, we have a bull div. So, you
see the price heading lower, RSI heading
higher on the 4-hour. That was a
predictive move that our it was going to
shoot up. And we'll just do one more
right here. Wow, look how low that RSI
went even though the price was flirting
with the same level. Uh
yeah, even basically closing the candle
slightly higher there. That gave us our
predictive move that it was going to
head down. So, what does it look like
recently?
Well, it predicted it right here. You
can see that RSI was heading up while
the price was heading down. And if you
jumped in on this trade, you are up 6.7%
but maybe you jumped in early. Maybe you
jumped in, you know, uh during the first
like real strong bull div level right
here. Let me hit my measuring tool. Uh
you're still up five. You may have been
down
around 1% but if you held on, you looked
at the thesis, you had conviction, maybe
even add to the trade, looking good
there. Now, I was waiting for the bottom
of the parallel channel. So, I may miss
the boat but that's all right. We took
profit here. We still have our hype bag.
It's one of the strong altcoins that I'm
really really I'm like bullish on over
the years, over the, you know, maybe
even potentially the decade.
I know there's a lot of barbarians in
the chat. You guys love HBAR.
HBAR trying to break out of this
downtrend. Now, we covered the rising
wedge. Remember that's bearish. And
again, this isn't, you know, saying it
has to happen. I'm just saying the
probabilities favor it slightly. Well,
we have a falling wedge and guess what?
That's going to be the opposite. It's
going to be slightly bullish. If it does
break out, I would wait for
confirmation. I would wait for a retest
and maybe then we could talk about this
descending trend line from the top here
in January and the top here in May. It
gives us our trend line right here. I
would get out of that trade there,
folks. I would get out of that trade.
Now, before we look at MicroStrategy, we
got one more that we covered that was
Ondo. Ondo coming into this support
level right here after rejecting off
this resistance here. So, that's just
going to be the pivot top, pivot top.
Try to push a little bit higher, wicked
higher, closed a little bit higher, but
it wasn't enough for the bulls. We could
not confirm any kind of daily above
there and push down right into this
descending trend line. You can see the
candle bodies there, the candle bodies
there. So,
uh we also have this other support is
the pivot top support here, pivot top
support there. I had a little bit of a
double confluence for a bullish factor
on this one.
Now, let's look at MicroStrategy. Now,
let's do our little deep dive on this
one. Now, not technically decentralized
finance, but this is a financial
instrument essentially for Bitcoin.
And if you must trade it, where would I
sell it? Well, one, I don't trade this
one. I I don't I don't even want to
touch this one with a 10-ft pole. Had a
nice discussion or a debate with a
coworker today. He's like, "Why don't
you like it?" I'll tell you why I don't
like it. I don't like his face. No, I'm
just kidding. I'm just kidding.
MicroStrategy dilutes their shares,
meaning they create new shares to buy
Bitcoin. They're not pulling in cash
from their software business and putting
it into Bitcoin. If they did, I'd be
bullish. If Amazon did something like
that with their profits, I would be
bullish. But what they do is
they create new shares of strategy, of
MSTR. Then they, after diluting MSTR,
then they'll go buy Bitcoin.
We're looking at some of the numbers.
Looks like they maybe added close to 20%
25% new shares in the past 12 months. So
that is a incredibly diluted stock.
Meaning, you know, it's there's just a
lot of inflation on that one and we get
out of USD because it inflates. Why do
you want to buy MicroStrategy? Because
it also inflates. Now where would I
trade it if if I had if you must trade
it you're just like I just love it so
much. I can't help myself. I'm I'm like
a junkie.
Well, look at that. Boom.
Connect the tops right here. That takes
you to that top right there. I would I
would keep an eye on this trend line
right there and I would get out of this
trade folks. I would get out. It's
actually not the worst risk reward ratio
here. I'm not saying go trade this one.
In fact, you know, kind of saying the
opposite. Uh you got about a
5 man [laughter]
15% move to the downside and 31% move.
But guess what? The further it goes out,
the less gains you have. And next thing
you know, yeah, well, now it's a
one-to-one risk reward ratio. That
really just doesn't look that
attractive. We do have this pivot low
into this gap fill right there.
You know, it didn't quite close it.
If you look at the candles there, I mean
boom that's right there 8110. The bears
tried to push it lower, but those
Bitcoin maniacs those those people who
just can't get enough of this orange
company here strategy. Oh, they jumped
in and got in a little bit early there.
So front ran it before it could go all
the way down. If it loses that, I'm
looking at this support level right here
at this other descending trend line. So
that's what I'm watching there.
I I didn't mean that Michael Saylor. I
know you're watching. I know you're in
the chat. Okay, Michael Saylor, your
face is okay.
You love Bitcoin and so you know, the
whole crypto community loves to
exemplify you and anoint you like you're
some sort of arbiter of wisdom. Like
you're the the the arbiters from Halo or
something, but at the end of the day at
the end of the day the guy just likes a
whole lot of Bitcoin, folks. But make
sure you go ahead and smash that like
button. I appreciate you guys hanging
out in the chat, putting in your
tickers. I you know I'm still reading
those comments. I'm still replying to
your guys's comments in the comment
section if you check it not live. But if
you're not catching it live Monday
through soon to be Thursday 1:30 p.m.
Eastern time, you're really missing out.
Really do appreciate you guys hanging
out yet again. I'll see you folks in the
future. Thank you.